#Earnings. Wrong about the trade, but right about it being low probability.
Closed call side of $AMBA Aug30/Sept06 46.5 #DoubleCalendar for .00 to avoid assignment. Bought yesterday for .369

#Earnings $AMBA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 4, 2019 AC +0.07%
March 5, 2019 AC +3.74%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +18.48% Biggest UP
Aug. 30, 2018 AC -3.62%
June 5, 2018 AC -12.93%
March 1, 2018 AC +13.46%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC +14.29%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC -22.35% Biggest DOWN
June 6, 2017 AC -10.24%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -4.42%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -11.27%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -6.67%

Avg (+ or -) 10.13%
Bias -1.79%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 46.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 42.36 to 50.64
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 41.79 to 51.21
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (22.4%): 36.11 to 56.89
Based on UP max only (+18.5%): 55.09

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

#Earnings. Closed first batch for 1.00. $TIF Aug30/Sep06 85 #DoubleCalendar bought yesterday for .48.

#Earnings $TIF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 4, 2019 BO +2.59%
March 22, 2019 BO +3.14%
Nov. 28, 2018 BO -11.82% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 28, 2018 BO +0.99%
May 23, 2018 BO +23.28% Biggest UP
March 16, 2018 BO -5.06%
Nov. 29, 2017 BO -1.58%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO -1.31%
May 24, 2017 BO -8.70%
March 17, 2017 BO +2.71%
Nov. 29, 2016 BO +3.14%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO +6.40%

Avg (+ or -) 5.89%
Bias 1.15%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 85.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 78.66 to 91.34
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 79.99 to 90.01
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (23.3%): 65.21 to 104.79
Based on DOWN max only (-11.8%): 74.95

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

#Earnings It would have been a good exit right at the open, but now we’re getting a second shot as price retreats.

Sold to close in phases: .90, 1.20, then when I realized it could drop, I waited for 2.20 on the most recent batch. Now watching to see how much lower it will go for my final lots, driving the premium higher as it gets closer to flat-on-day.

#DoubleCalendar bought yesterday for 1.69.

#Earnings. I must consent that this trade failed.
Paid .01 to close $CREE 58.5 Aug23/Aug30 put calendar. Leaving call side to expire, and be a lottery ticket for next week. #DoubleCalendar bought Tuesday for .67.

#Earnings Bought to open $INTU Aug23/Aug30 275 #DoubleCalendar for 1.69. Pretty good range of profitability: 262 to 288, or 4.7% either way.

#Earnings Sold to Close $ADP Aug02/Aug09 165p/167.5c #DoubleCalendar for 1.10. Filled on a few with the order that’s been in for hours. The rest should fill unless it spikes higher. Bought yesterday for .57 avg price

#Earnings $ADP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 1, 2019 BO -4.20%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO +4.03%
Oct. 31, 2018 BO +4.96%
Aug. 1, 2018 BO -1.76%
May 2, 2018 BO +2.74%
Jan. 31, 2018 BO +2.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.91%
July 27, 2017 BO +9.10% Biggest UP
May 3, 2017 BO -6.24% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 1, 2017 BO -5.68%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +3.52%
July 28, 2016 BO -3.37%

Avg (+ or -) 4.07%
Bias 0.38%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 166.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 159.56 to 172.44
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 159.24 to 172.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.1%): 150.89 to 181.11
Based on DOWN max only (-6.2%): 155.64

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

#Earnings Move a bit too strong on both #DoubleCalendar so exiting with small losses.

STC $PG 116 for .28, bought yesterday for .36
STC $ETN 81 for .29, bought yesterday for .34

#Earnings $PG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 23, 2019 BO -2.68%
Jan. 23, 2019 BO +4.86%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO +8.79% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO +0.84%
April 20, 2018 BO -1.53%
Jan. 23, 2018 BO -3.09%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO -3.64% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 BO +1.54%
April 26, 2017 BO -2.51%
Jan. 20, 2017 BO +3.24%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO +3.41%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO +0.40%

Avg (+ or -) 3.04%
Bias 0.80%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 115.85 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 111.58 to 120.12
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 112.32 to 119.38
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.8%): 105.67 to 126.03
Based on DOWN max only (-3.6%): 111.63

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

#Earnings $ETN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 30, 2019 BO -1.39%
Jan. 31, 2019 BO +4.62%
Oct. 30, 2018 BO -1.87%
July 31, 2018 BO +3.30%
May 1, 2018 BO -1.55%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO +4.63% Biggest UP
Oct. 31, 2017 BO +0.99%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.52% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2017 BO +1.28%
Feb. 2, 2017 BO -1.80%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO -4.81%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO +0.10%

Avg (+ or -) 2.66%
Bias -0.17%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 81.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 77.70 to 84.30
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 78.85 to 83.15
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (5.5%): 76.53 to 85.47
Based on UP max only (+4.6%): 84.75

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

#Earnings Sold to close $SBUX Jul26/Aug02 90p/91c #DoubleCalendar for .26. Bought yesterday for .38. Move was too high so I got out early while puts still have value. I don’t have any hope for a big drop today.

#Earnings Sold to close $FFIV Jul26/Aug02 147p/148c #DoubleCalendar for 1.61-1.55
Bought yesterday for .88

Sold to close $EW Jul26/Aug02 192.5 call calendar for .10. #DoubleCalendar bought for 1.30 on Tuesday. Move was too large and assignment of short shares was likely to happen tonight.

#Earnings Bought to Open $SBUX Jul26/Aug02 90p/91c #DoubleCalendar for .38.

$SBUX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 25, 2019 AC +0.44%
Jan. 24, 2019 AC +3.62%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +9.70% Biggest UP
July 26, 2018 AC +1.36%
April 26, 2018 AC -1.71%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -4.22%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.11%
July 27, 2017 AC -9.24% Biggest DOWN
April 27, 2017 AC -2.02%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -4.00%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +1.89%
July 21, 2016 AC +0.52%

Avg (+ or -) 3.40%
Bias -0.13%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 90.80 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 86.35 to 95.25
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 87.71 to 93.89
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.7%): 81.99 to 99.61
Based on DOWN max only (-9.2%): 82.41

Open to requests for other symbols.

#Earnings $EFX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 10, 2019 BO +0.30%
Feb. 20, 2019 AC +2.18%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC -14.77% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2018 AC -3.48%
April 25, 2018 AC -3.22%
March 1, 2018 AC +5.14% Biggest UP
Nov. 9, 2017 AC -0.19%
July 26, 2017 AC -2.41%
April 26, 2017 AC -1.83%
Feb. 8, 2017 AC +5.03%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC -4.30%
July 27, 2016 AC -1.39%

Avg (+ or -) 3.69%
Bias -1.58%%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 140.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 134.14 to 146.86
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 135.32 to 145.68
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.8%): 119.75 to 161.25
Based on UP Max only (+5.1%): 147.72

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

#Earnings Bought $FFIX Jul26/Aug02 147p/148c #DoubleCalendar for .82-.85. Not all filled yet.

#Earnings Bought to Open $EW Jul26/Aug02 192.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.25-1.32. Fills have been erratic but I got ‘er done.

#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 23, 2019 AC -1.79%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -1.00%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC +10.49% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2016 AC +5.62%

Avg (+ or -) 6.34%
Bias -2.92%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 193.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 183.35 to 202.65
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 180.76 to 205.24
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 160.02 to 225.98
Based on UP Max only (+10.5%): 213.25

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

#Earnings Sold to Close $HON Jul19/Jul26 172.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.38. Bought yesterday for .67.

#Earnings Sold to close $HON Jul19/Jul26 172.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.65. Bought yesterday for .67.

Filled on most of my order. Still a few out there but should fill when price meanders back toward my strike.

#Earnings Bought $HON Jul19/Jul26 172.5 #DoubleCalendar for .67.

$HON reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 18, 2019 BO +3.78% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2019 BO +0.75%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -1.10%
July 20, 2018 BO +3.78%
April 20, 2018 BO +1.64%
Jan. 26, 2018 BO +1.94%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO +1.20%
July 21, 2017 BO +1.03%
April 21, 2017 BO +2.67%
Jan. 27, 2017 BO +0.38%
Oct. 21, 2016 BO +0.75%
July 22, 2016 BO -2.57% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 1.80%
Bias 1.19%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 172.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 166.66 to 178.34
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 169.40 to 175.60
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (3.8%): 165.98 to 179.02
Based on DOWN Max only (-2.6%): 168.07

Open to requests for other symbols.

#Earnings Bought $CSX Jul19/Jul26 79.5 #DoubleCalendar for .33 and .34.

$CSX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 16, 2019 AC +4.01%
Jan. 16, 2019 AC -0.44%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC -2.06%
July 17, 2018 AC +7.07%
April 17, 2018 AC +7.84% Biggest UP
Jan. 16, 2018 AC -0.75%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO +2.63%
July 18, 2017 AC -5.06% Biggest DOWN
April 19, 2017 AC +5.60%
Jan. 17, 2017 AC -3.17%
Oct. 12, 2016 AC +3.11%
July 13, 2016 AC +2.97%

Avg (+ or -) 3.73%
Bias 1.81%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 79.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 76.63 to 82.37
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 76.54 to 82.46
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.8%): 73.27 to 85.73
Based on DOWN Max only (-5.1%): 75.48

Open to requests for other symbols.

#Earnings. Sold to close $KMX Jun21/Jun28 83 #DoubleCalendar for 1.00. Bought yesterday for .43. Only got filled on 3, was going for 17. 😦

#Earnings Bought to Open $KMX Jun21/Jun28 83 #DoubleCalendar for .43. Filling slowly, 1 lot every minute or so.

#Earnings $KMX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 29, 2019 BO +9.61%
Dec. 21, 2018 BO +3.94%
Sept. 26, 2018 BO -1.60%
June 22, 2018 BO +12.86% Biggest UP
April 4, 2018 BO +4.61%
Dec. 21, 2017 BO -3.60%
Sept. 22, 2017 BO +7.77%
June 21, 2017 BO +0.80%
April 6, 2017 BO +2.36%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +6.09%
Sept. 21, 2016 BO -2.04%
June 21, 2016 BO -4.91% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 5.02%
Bias 2.99%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 82.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 77.07 to 87.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 78.36 to 86.64
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 71.89 to 93.11
Based on UP Max only (-4.9%): 78.45

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

#Earnings Bought to Open $DG May31/Jun07 118 #DoubleCalendar for .38 & .39.

#Earnings Sold to close $INTU 245 #DoubleCalendar for 1.35, small loss. Opened yesterday for 1.525.

There was a chance to close with a profit this morning, but I thought the morning weakness would drag it down. But it keeps going higher, so I’m bailing. Often a tough call closing these trades..

#Earnings Paid .02 to close the 110 put calendar on $LOW. It’s too low. Bought for .50 on Tuesday.

Sold to close half of the $CTRP May24/May31 38 #DoubleCalendar for .40. Bought yesterday for .26. Looking to close the rest when price drifts a bit higher, today or tomorrow.

Filled on more of the $INTU dub cal at 1.55. Still only partial fill, but I’m not going to go any higher.

I want to play $SPLK bullish but the market isn’t cooperating with my confidence.

#Earnings Bought $INTU May 24/May31 245 #DoubleCalendar for 1.50. Only a partial fill, and then price seems to be running higher. This is not heavy mover normally. Positioned slightly bullish since everything has pulled back today, and it has a bullish bias on earnings..

#Earnings $INTU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 21, 2019 AC +6.76% Biggest UP
Nov. 19, 2018 AC -2.03%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +1.96%
May 22, 2018 AC +2.98%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -0.18%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC -3.79% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 22, 2017 AC -1.90%
May 23, 2017 AC +6.72%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +6.05%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +1.91%
Aug. 23, 2016 AC -3.50%
May 24, 2016 AC -2.13%

Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias 1.07%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 242.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 253.87 to 276.61
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 234.43 to 250.57
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 226.11 to 258.89
Based on maximum DOWN only (-3.8%): 233.31

Open to requests for other symbols.

#Earnings Out of the three candidates this morning, this one had the best Dub-Cal return and lowest average post-earnings move (other two were $BBY and $NTAP). However, it did have its biggest moves in last two quarters.

Bought $CTRP May 24/May31 38 #DoubleCalendar for .25 and .27. Double size since cost is so low.

#Earnings $CTRP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 4, 2019 AC +19.77% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -19.01% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 5, 2018 AC +5.43%
May 22, 2018 AC +3.98%
March 14, 2018 AC -1.94%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.29%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -2.40%
May 10, 2017 AC -3.52%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +1.44%
Nov. 23, 2016 AC +9.80%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC +3.40%
June 15, 2016 AC +1.50%

Avg (+ or -) 6.21%
Bias 1.35%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 38.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 34.33 to 41.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 35.64 to 40.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.8%): 30.49 to 45.51

Open to requests for other symbols.

#Earnings Bought to Open $LOW May24/May31 110 #DoubleCalendar for .50.

#Earnings I was looking at a #DoubleCalendar, ATM going for about 1.50, but didn’t want the risk as I think a bigger than average move may be possible. Market is crazy bullish at the moment, entirely Trade-War driven. So I looked at an OTM call calendar at 160. The front calls don’t even have a bid, so, I just went with the “buy” half of the Calendar…

Bought to open $DE May 24th 160 calls for .18.

Looking at the daily chart, DE was close to 170 just a couple weeks ago. Unless the report is bad, I believe it has a good shot at a large move tomorrow, or even a further drift upward into next week, when these expire. It is a much better risk/reward play in an uncertain market. Needs any move up to be profitable, and about a 9% move up to be ATM.

#Earnings Sold to close $BUD May10/May17 87.5 #DoubleCalendar for .55. Bought for .44 on Monday. It will be worth more if stock price continues to go higher, but not trusting the market to help.

#Earnings $BUD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Bought to Open BUD May10/May17 87.5 #DoubleCalendar for .42 & .44

Feb. 28, 2019 BO +4.60%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -9.37% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 BO -5.02%
May 9, 2018 BO -0.31%
March 1, 2018 BO +3.07%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO -0.94%
July 27, 2017 BO +6.16% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 BO +5.68%
March 2, 2017 BO -3.72%
Oct. 28, 2016 BO -3.80%
July 29, 2016 BO +2.79%
May 4, 2016 BO -1.53%

Avg (+ or -) 3.92%
Bias -0.20%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 87.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 83.43 to 91.57
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 84.07 to 90.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 79.30 to 95.70
Based on UP max only (+6.2%): 92.89

Open to requests for other symbols.

#Earnings Good trades last week followed by a couple misses this week:
Sold to close $MNST 58 #DoubleCalendar for .08. Bought yesterday for .29.
Paid .04 to close $CLX 157.5 put side of #DoubleCalendar. Bought Tuesday for .74

#Earnings Bought to Open $MNST May03/May10 58 #DoubleCalendar for .29.

#Earnings Bought to open $CLX May03/May10 157.5 put calendars and 160 call calendars .74 total. So this is a split-strike #DoubleCalendar, a bit lower max profit but a wider profit range.

#Earnings $CLX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Considering a #DoubleCalendar

Feb. 4, 2019 BO +5.68%
Oct. 31, 2018 BO -2.85%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.17% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 BO -0.70%
Feb. 2, 2018 BO -6.71% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 1, 2017 BO +1.17%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO +2.09%
May 3, 2017 BO +0.85%
Feb. 3, 2017 BO +4.07%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -3.19%
Aug. 3, 2016 BO +0.99%
May 3, 2016 BO +1.94%

Avg (+ or -) 3.03%
Bias 0.79%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 158.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 152.89 to 164.11
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 153.84 to 163.46
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (6.7%): 148.00 to 169.30
Based on UP max only (+6.2%): 168.44

Open to requests for other symbols.

#Earnings Sold to close half of my position, $SBUX Apr26/May03 77 #DoubleCalendar for .85. Bought yesterday for .30. Waiting on the other half as this may be close to a pin. Same with $AMZN.

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar

Was able to turn $NOC double calendar into a profitable trade by taking assignment and then legging out. Sold the long puts for 16.00 at the open, then closed stock for 280.50.

And on one account that I hadn’t noticed was still open last night on $MMM, did the same thing… sold long puts for 30.00 and covered stock for 191.00, netting 1.00 on the close and a tiny profit on the trade. Better than a loss! And for once, I played the swings right… usually a weakness for me.

#Earnings Sold to Close $FFIV Apr26/Mar03 165 #DoubleCalendar for 2.10. Bought yesterday for .81 and .82.

Had to pay .02 to close the $MMM 220 put calendar to avoid assignment. Dub Cal bought yesterday for .904

#Earnings Bought to Open $SBUX Apr26/May03 77 #DoubleCalendar for .30. Partial fill so far. This is a cheap play, must stay within its average range, or at least drift through it tomorrow. I placed a double-sized because of the low cost.

It is the tightest Bid/Ask I have seen on a double calendar, so very liquid.

#Earnings $MMM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Bidding for $MMM Apr26/May03 220 #DoubleCalendar for .90. No fill yet.

Jan. 29, 2019 BO +1.94%
Oct. 23, 2018 BO -4.37%
July 24, 2018 BO +0.92%
April 24, 2018 BO -6.83% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 25, 2018 BO +1.88%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO +5.91% Biggest UP
July 25, 2017 BO -5.05%
April 25, 2017 BO +0.46%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO -1.42%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO -2.94%
July 26, 2016 BO -1.09%
April 26, 2016 BO -1.30%

Avg (+ or -) 2.84%
Bias -0.99%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 220.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 212.48 to 227.52
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 213.75 to 226.25
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 204.97 to 235.03
Based on DOWN max only (-5.9%): 204.97

Open to requests for other symbols.

#Earnings Bought to Open $FFIV Apr26/May03 165 #DoubleCalendar for .80. Only partial fill so far.

Also going for one on $MMM

#Earnings Sold to close $EW Apr26/May03 180 #DoubleCalendar for 2.25. Bought yesterday for 1.03. Third quarter in a row this was the best symbol for this strategy. Unfortunately I only got a partial fill yesterday.

#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Bought to Open $EW Apr26/May03 180 #DoubleCalendar for 1.03. This one has a good risk profile and has been a winner for me two quarters in a row.

Jan. 31, 2019 AC -1.00%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC +10.49% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2016 AC +5.62%
April 26, 2016 AC +0.08%

Avg (+ or -) 6.20%
Bias -2.76%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 182.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 172.02 to 191.98
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 170.72 to 193.28
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 150.90 to 213.10
Based on UP max only (10.5%): 201.09

Open to requests for other symbols.

#Earnings Yesterday Lockheed, today Northrup. Next trade will be in Stark Industries.

Bought to open $NOC Apr26/May03 295 #DoubleCalendar for 1.09.

#Earnings Bought to Open $LMT Apr26/May03 315 #DoubleCalendar for .76 and .77

$LMT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 29, 2019 BO +1.45%
Oct. 23, 2018 BO -1.66%
July 24, 2018 BO +1.33%
April 24, 2018 BO -6.16% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 29, 2018 BO +1.89%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO -2.36%
July 18, 2017 BO -0.58%
April 25, 2017 BO -2.24%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO -1.77%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO +7.36% Biggest UP
July 19, 2016 BO +1.04%
April 26, 2016 BO +2.58%

Avg (+ or -) 2.54%
Bias 0.07%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 315.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 302.98 to 327.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 307.01 to 322.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.4%): 291.82 to 338.18
Based on DOWN max only (-6.2%): 295.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

#Earnings Sold to close $AXP Apr18/Apr26 112 #DoubleCalendar for .69, .73, and .90. Bought for .48 yesterday.

I got .90 for one at the open… then waiting lowered the profit for the rest as the stock rose.

Closed $IBM dub cal for .03. Bought for .407 on Tuesday.

#Earnings Sold to close $HON Apr18/Apr26 162.5 #DoubleCalendar for .40. Bought yesterday for .55.

$AXP will be the profitable one… order in for 1.10, seeing if price can come to me, or I will lower my ask.

#Earnings Bought to Open $HON Apr18/Apr26 162.5 #DoubleCalendar for .55.

#Earnings Bought to open $IBM Apr18/Apr26 145 #DoubleCalendar for .40. Surprised I was filled below mid price… partial fill, may have to raise bid to fulfill my full position.

This has a 5% average move… tomorrow’s breakevens are showing to be precisely at 5%. So this has an even chance of working, but also an additional day to fade any large move.

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Sold to close $STZ Apr5/Apr12 180 dbl cals for .51 (avg price). Bought yesterday for .785

As I commented below, today’s action is an indication that earnings released in the AM may tend to have more intraday movement than those that report the night before. This is because the conference call will start or continue into the trading hours. For reports in the afternoon, all of the info has been absorbed over night and that could mean less movement.

So, waiting this morning was not such a good idea, because with the perfect opening we need to grab the profit before the ongoing conference call affects the price.

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Bought to Open $STZ Apr05/Apr12 180 dbl cal for .78 & .80.

#Earnings Bought to Open $NKE Mar22/Mar29 88 #DoubleCalendar for .49.

#Earnings Sold to close first batch of $ORCL Mar15/Mar22 53 #DoubleCalendar for .50. Watching for better exit on the next batch. Bought yesterday for .23 and .24

#Earnings — Bought ORCL Mar15/Mar22 53 #DoubleCalendar for .23 & .24.

$ORCL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 17, 2018 AC +0.26%
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -0.30%
June 19, 2018 AC -7.45%
March 19, 2018 AC -9.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 14, 2017 AC -3.76%
Sept. 14, 2017 AC -7.67%
June 21, 2017 AC +8.56% Biggest UP
March 15, 2017 AC +6.22%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -4.30%
Sept. 15, 2016 AC -4.74%
June 16, 2016 AC +2.69%
March 15, 2016 AC +3.82%

Avg (+ or -) 4.93%
Bias -1.34%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 53.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 50.52 to 55.48
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 50.39 to 55.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 48.00 to 58.00
Based on Max UP only (+8.6%): 57.54

Open to requests for other symbols.

#Earnings — This is another cheap shot with a fairly new stock that’s been volatile. Profit range allows 20% in either direction. If this drifts toward the center during the week it could be a triple or quadruple.

Bought $SFIX Mar15/Mar22 25 #DoubleCalendar for .20, .24, .25.

$SFIX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

Dec. 10, 2018 AC -20.90%
Oct. 1, 2018 AC -35.15% Biggest DOWN
June 7, 2018 AC +26.48% Biggest UP
March 12, 2018 AC -3.60%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC -9.77%

Avg (+ or -) 19.18%
Bias -8.59%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 25.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 20.06 to 29.94
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 20.21 to 29.80
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (35.2%): 16.21 to 33.79
Based on Max UP only (+26.5%): 31.62

Open to requests for other symbols.

#Earnings Sold to close $COST Mar08/Mar15 217.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.33. Bought yesterday for 1.20. Only a 1-lot… chose not to wait for a pullback when expiration is today and small profit availabe.

Sold to close $SSYS Mar08/Mar15 26.5 dbl cal for .04. Bought for .16 on Wednesday.

$DLTR, looking to close ITM call side for .05 or .00

Dub cals didn’t work this week, but losses only totaled .40 plus commissions.

#Earnings Bought to Open $COST Mar08/Mar15 217.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.20. As yesterday, filled on TOS but not IB yet.

#Earnings As $DLTR ascends to the heavens, leaving my calendar in the dust, I’m trying another cheap one. $SSYS has an average move of 9% but for 20 cents, worth the shot.

I was filled on TOS with a 1-lot for .16. Kind of crazy. The fill shows I sold the Mar08 short call for 1.49 and bought the Mar15 long call for 1.50. Only a one penny spread? Meanwhile, my order at Interactive Brokers is in for .20 and not filling. Go figure.

Bought to Open $SSYS Mar08/Mar15 26.5 #DoubleCalendar for .16, trying for more at .20