#Earnings #LongStraddle Bought $ANF March 8th 21.5 straddle for 2.94. Avg Move on earnings: 14.7%. I need a 13.7% move to breakeven.
Also trying for a #DoubleCalendar on $DLTR. Only if I can get filled for .40. Low probability, since it moves decently, but low risk worth the shot.
#Earnings Sold to Close $VMW #DoubleCalendar final lots for 2.36 and 2.03. Bought for 1.23 yesterday. Avg close price 2.62.
$SPLK splunked out… the only time profit was available was first 5 minutes of the day. Bought for 1.20 yesterday.
Expiring:
$SPX 2740/2760-2810/2830 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
$AZO 860/855 put spreads. Call side closed for .35 on Wednesday. Condor sold for 2.28 on Monday.
$SQ 85 calls, sold for 1.08 on Wednesday.
Lottery tickets for next week:
$BUD 75 long puts
$MSTR 58 and 54 long puts
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Closed first batch of $VMX Mar01/Mar08 dbl cals for 2.90. Bought yesterday for 1.30. These higher priced stocks always produce the bigger profits. This winner will easily overtake the small losses in MNST and BUD for the week.
#Earnings Sold to close $BUD 75 call calendar for .07. This one moved farther up today, so profit’s not possible. Closed the call side to avoid assignment.
$MNST I’ll get a small profit out of the 62 calendar, but not moving down enough to make the ATM 58 #DoubleCalendar work. Will be closing the call side to avoid assignment, but will wait until later in case we get a drop.
$VMW This one moved up, but should still turn a small profit.
$SPLK #BrokenWingButterfly Looking for this to rise into the close so I can take profit. It passed through my center strike in the morning but volatility was too wild to close with enough profit.
#Earnings — $VMW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +3.62%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC -2.19%
May 31, 2018 AC +6.14%
March 1, 2018 AC -5.91%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC +3.60%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +1.89%
June 1, 2017 AC -2.09%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +3.49%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +3.35%
July 18, 2016 AC +9.04%
April 19, 2016 AC +13.73% Biggest UP
Jan. 26, 2016 AC -9.82% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 5.41%
Bias 2.07%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 173.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 163.23 to 182.77
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 163.65 to 182.35
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.7%): 149.25 to 196.75
Open to requests for other symbols.
Bot MNST Mar 1/8 62 call cal and Mar 1/8 54 put cal @ .20 (EM strikes)
Bot MNST Mar 1/8 58 call cal and Mar 2/8 58 put cal @ .20 (ATM strike)
Total cost for four calendars: $40
Thanks to @jeffcp66 for continuing to trade this strategy after I abandoned it.:-)
#DubDubCal
#Earnings — Bought to open $BUD Mar01/Mar08 75 #DoubleCalendar for .48. Looking at the daily chart, BUD is not the king of big moves. I’ve said it all.
$BUD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -9.37% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 BO -5.02%
May 9, 2018 BO -0.31%
March 1, 2018 BO +3.07%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO -0.94%
July 27, 2017 BO +6.16% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 BO +5.68%
March 2, 2017 BO -3.72%
Oct. 28, 2016 BO -3.80%
July 29, 2016 BO +2.79%
May 4, 2016 BO -2.98%
Feb. 25, 2016 BO -2.38%
Avg (+ or -) 3.85%
Bias -0.90%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 75.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 71.07 to 78.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 72.11 to 77.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 67.97 to 82.03
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings — Bought to open $MNST Mar01/Mar08 58 #DoubleCalendar for .23, .246, and .25.
$MNST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -3.16%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +2.65%
May 8, 2018 AC -7.47%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC -14.43% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +1.17%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -1.14%
May 4, 2017 AC +3.30%
March 1, 2017 AC +12.75% Biggest UP
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.55%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC +2.47%
April 29, 2016 BO +12.81%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC -1.74%
Avg (+ or -) 5.55%
Bias 0.31%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 58.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 54.07 to 61.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 54.78 to 61.22
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.1%): 49.63 to 66.37
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings Sold to close $HLF Feb22/Mar01 57.5 #DoubleCalendar for .78. Bought for .45 on Tuesday. Price started fading from its highs so I don’t think we’re making it up to 57.50 today.
I’m waiting on $AAOI until the bitter end. Looks like we may get a 14.50 pin.
#Earnings Sold to close $FLR #DoubleCalendar for .77. Bought for .44 yesterday. Stock is starting to rally so closed before it got away from me.
Bought $AAOI Feb22/Mar01 14.5 dbl cals for .27
Bought $FLR Feb22/Mar01 38 dbl cals for .45
#Earnings #LongStock #Assignment #DoubleCalendar
Sold half of my stock for 65.00 and 65.45. Assigned via 68 puts last week… cost basis 64.79. Looking to unload all of it; no interest in making this a longer term holding.
#Earnings Bought to Open $HLF Feb22/Mar01 57.5 #DoubleCalendar for .45. (Got it for .42 in a TOS account)
#Earnings Sold to close $UAA Feb 15th 21 calls for .16. This was a sad one; bought the #LongStraddle for 2.50… the swings this week afforded opportunities to cut the loss to less than half, but my orders barely missed getting filled again and again. So although I did sell a few for 1.60, the stock ended the week right at my strike… not good for a long straddle!
#CoveredCalls #Assignment $PVTL stock called away via 18 and 19 calls. This was a September earnings trade, was assigned at 22.50 and through multiple rounds of covered calls I’m exiting at about break-even.
#DoubleCalendar Taking assignment of $NTAP stock, cost basis 64.79.
#IronCondor Closed $DECK short 145 calls for 1.30. Was able to exit some at .50 and .20, so overall this trade will be a small winner or a small loser across my accounts. Condor sold for .86 on Jan 31st.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Here’s the performance this quarter of double calendars. It is performing better than last quarter, with over $1,700 in profit, using 5-lots.
NOTE: NTAP here is accounted as full loss, even though I will probably hold stock in to next week.
NOTE ALSO: INTC here is accounted as taking stock assignment and then closing all a week later. What I actually did was close only half, and converted the other half of stock into a #PieTrade.
#Earnings Sold to close $AMAT Feb15/Feb22 #DoubleCalendar for .28. Bought yesterday for .52. Couldn’t get off its ass enough to make it a winner.
$Earnings Closed $TAP Feb15/Feb22 65 #DoubleCalendar. I needed to close the puts, tried to play the swings but then stock started rallying so took an additional .30 loss on the exit. Calendar bought for .34 on Monday.
#Earnings Sold to Close $CSCO Feb15/Feb22 47.5 #DoubleCalendar for .30. Bought for .18 on Wednesday. Stock came down enough for a small profit, but was too far from strike to make it a good one.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Was assigned stock on over half of my position in $NTAP; Feb 15th 68 short puts. I just sold the Feb 22nd LONG puts for 3.60. I will now watch for some intraday strength in the stock to sell the stock, as well as cover the remaining short puts that were not assigned. If I can net a .39 difference (the price of the original double calendar), the trade will be breakeven. Higher and it will turn a profit.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Bought to open $AMAT Feb15/Feb22 41 dbl cals for .52
#Earnings Sold the last batch of $SHOP Feb15/Feb22 #DoubleCalendar for 3.10. Bought for 1.60 on Monday.
#Earnings Bought to Open $NTAP Feb15/Feb22 68 #DoubleCalendar for .39.
#Earnings Bought to Open $CSCO Feb15/Feb22 47.5 #DoubleCalendar for .18.
Price has gone up on NTAP so looking to buy now.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Both $NTAP and $CSCO make very cheap double calendars. Especially NTAP, which can probably be bought for around .20 and may offer profits as high as 2.00, if there is not a super large move. Even with a modest move, this should still turn a profit, but if not, it’s only .20. CSCO will go for a similar price but will offer a lower return.
#Earnings Funny story. I have two orders in to sell at 2.75, both 1-lots. And I had another order to sell 3 for 3.00. Guess which one filled?
Sold $SHOP #DoubleCalendar for 3.00. Bought for 1.60 on Monday.
#Earnings Sold to close partial $SHOP Feb15/Feb22 175 #DoubleCalendar for 2.10. Bought yesterday for 1.60. Price moving toward strike so trying to close the rest for higher credit.
$TAP Dbl Cal is tapping out. Will need to see if a bounce comes into Friday. This was cheap (.34), so no biggie.
$UAA no gap but drifting higher so this may turn out well. #LongStraddle bought for 2.50.
Bought $UAA Feb 15th 21 #LongStraddle for 2.50. Need a 11.9% move. Average has been 16.1%.
Bought $TAP Feb15/Feb22 65 #DoubleCalendar for .34. Super cheap!
Looking at a calendar for $SHOP, also cheap.
#Earnings Sold to close final $FEYE puts for 2.27.
Sold to close $MPC Feb08/Feb15 #DoubleCalendar for .85. Bought yesterday for .65
#Earnings Bought to Open $FEYE Feb 8th 18.5 #LongStraddle for 1.81. Need a 9.7% move, which is the 12-quarter average.
Bought to Open $MPC Feb08/Feb15 67.5 #DoubleCalendar for .65.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Sold to close partial $CMI Feb08/Feb15 149 dbl cal for 1.20. Waiting for price to move closer to my strike to close more. Bought yesterday for .65
#LongStraddle Sold to close partial $SNAP Feb 8th 7 calls for 1.75. Watching for a move higher. Straddles bought yesterday for 1.03.
#IronCondor Bought to close partial $DECK Feb 15th 105/110/145/150 condors for .50. Sold Thursday for .86.
#Earnings Bought to Open $CMI Feb08/Feb15 149 #DoubleCalendar for .65. (filled at .63 on TOS)
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to close $EW Feb01/Feb08 170 dbl cals for 3.25 (avg price). Bought yesterday for 1.57.
#IronButterfly $NOW expiring at max loss of .65.
#IronCondor $AMZN expiring at full profit, sold yesterday for 2.00.
#LongStraddle $EBAY straddle bought for 2.23 on Tuesday. It had a subtle move, so I played the swings and managed to sell for 1.168. Even when long straddles miss, they aren’t too bad provided you have a few days and some swings.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar #LongStock #CoveredCalls #Dividends
Lat week’s double cal didn’t work but I stuck with the trade, selling the long put and taking assignment, cost basis of 47.34.
Today I lightened the load, selling slightly less than half of the stock for 49.00.
I’m converting the rest into a #PieTrade, so I sold to Open $INTC March 15th 50 covered calls for 1.01.
#earnings #doublecalendar INTC
January 24, bought a Jan. 25/Feb 1, strike 50 double calendar (following Jeff), Jan. 25, rolled the short put to March and sold the long put as INTC went down after earnings. Closed the March put today making 98.93 after all transactions.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar For 2nd quarter in a row, $EW is killing it on this strategy. The long options (Feb 8th) retain a lot of value, but because stock price is so close to my 170 strike, I was able to exit partial for 4.30 near the open. Now waiting for even a better price as the Feb 1st short options decay.
$MRK was the loser…. Sold to close $MRK Feb01/Feb08 74.5 dbl cals for .30. bought yesterday for .47
Working on the $HON exit. Looks like I’ll be able to get a slight profit.
Bought $HON Feb01/Feb08 144 for .85
Bought $MRK Feb01/Feb08 74.5 for .47
Bought $EW Feb01/Feb08 170 for 1.57
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar These stocks all have fairly muted historical moves but decent IV elevation for earnings: $CI, $CVX, $HON, $MRK. Also, $EW was my biggest winner in this strategy last quarter. It opened nearly flat and allowed for perfect exit. Then the stock dropped 5%. So its moves are a bit large for a calendar but it worked out, so I may try again.
#coveredcalls
$NFLX BTC 2/1 360 calls and STO 2/1 252.50 calls at added .50
#doublecalendar
$INTC STC 2/1 51 put at 4.50 Trade ended up losing only $15 per contract and I tried something new. Thank you @jeffcp66
#bullcallspreads
$WYNN BTO 4/18 115/130 BUCS at 6.25
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar #LongStock #Assignment #Dividends
Sold to close $INTC Feb 1st 50 put for 3.20. Will be assigned long stock for 50.00. Add .54 for calendar purchase, subtract 3.20 from put sale, cost basis 47.34.
Will sell calls and hang on to stock for at least one dividend round.
#earnings #doublecalendar INTC CL
INTC I rolled the Jan. 25, 50 short put to March 15, 50 for .75, the short call will expire out of the money today. I’ll see what happens with the longs on Monday
CL I have the in the money 60 call and none of them have traded today, including, and especially, my attempts. I’ll take the short shares and see what happens on Monday, otherwise would be a push. I’m new to these types of trades and open to other ideas.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to Close $ETFC Jan25/Feb01 50 dbl cal for .50. Bought for .52 yesterday, so bitty loss.
Will include other closures in comments.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar $CL average move 2.43%
Bought $CL Jan25/Feb01 62 double calendars for .36 (remarkable fill for such wide bid/ask spread)
Bought $INTC Jan25/Feb01 50 double calendars for .54
Bought $ETFC Jan25/Feb01 50 double calendars for .52
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Was trying to get filled on the dip, when the dip exploded into a market rally.
Sold to close $AA Jan18/Jan25 29 double calendar for .51. Bought yesterday for .44. Meager.
Waiting for tomorrow on $MS
#DoubleCalendar #Earnings Forgot about these earlier… just threw them on now.
Bought to Open $MS 18Jan/25Jan 45 double calendar for .334.
Bought to Open $AA 18Jan/25Jan 29 double calendar for .44
#Earnings Biggest move in years means #DoubleCalendar is no good…
Sold to close $SBUX Nov2/Nov9 59 double calendars closed for .07. Bought yesterday for .48.
I closed the calls, but the left the short put to expire and the long put as a lottery ticket next week.
#Earnings Sold to close $EOG Nov2/Nov9 106 #DoubleCalendar for 2.80. Bought yesterday for 1.90.
In other EOG news, this was the last of my #PreEarnings trades, all of which failed. My long 125 calls are worthless. Plain & simply, these ain’t gonna work if a correction hits. My mistake was entering most of these trades AFTER a downside warning hit. Lesson learned!
The win on the calendar makes me breakeven on EOG, so it’s a sunny day.
#Earnings Bought to Open $SBUX Nov2/Nov9 59 #DoubleCalendar for .48.
Trying for an $EOG 106 calendar for 1.90 but may bail if I don’t get filled.
Bot Nov2/9 59 double calendar x2 @ .43. GTC order to sell @.80
#doublecalendar
Closed CI double calendar for 2.58. Bot @ 2.44 ydy.
Closed W double calendar for .20. Bot @ 2.30 ydy.
Not a good day for the small DubCal flock.
#doublecalendar
Added a couple last-minute double calendars right before the close.
Bot CI Nov2/Nov9 212.5 double calendar @ 2.4. GTC order to sell @ 3.2
Bit W Nov2/Nov9 111 double calendar @ 2.3. GTC order to sell 3.5
Sold FB Nov2/9 144 double calendar @ 1.68. Bot ydy @ 1.51. Could have made more but thought the price would fall a lot more after the open.
#Earnings
Sold $FB Nov 2nd 145 #DoubleCalendar for 2.00. Bought yesterday for 1.65.
BTC $ANTM Nov 2nd 277.5/282.5 call spreads for .20. #IronCondor sold yesterday for 1.10. Leaving 247.5/242.5 put side to expire or close cheaply, since it’s pretty far OTM.
#Earnings Bought to Open $FB Nov2/Nov9 145 #DoubleCalendar for 1.60.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Followed Mama on three of these ideas…
Bought $CL Oct26/Nov2 64 dbl calendars for .44
Bought $INTC Oct26/Nov2 45 dbl calendars for .54
Bought $GILD Oct26/Nov2 70 dbl calendars for .95
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
STC $UPS Oct 26th 115 double calendars for .64. Bought yesterday for .89, so small loss. Stock dropped too much. Could have gotten a modest profit at the open but waited for a bounce that didn’t come.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to close $EW Oct26/Nov2 150 call/put calendars for 2.475 (avg price). Bought yesterday for 1.40.
BTO $EW Oct 26th/Nov 2nd 150 call/put double calendars for 1.40
BTO $UPS Oct 26th/Nov 2nd 115 call/put double calendar for .89
#Earnings $AXP reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 18, 2018 AC -2.72%
April 18, 2018 AC 7.58%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -1.83%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -0.19%
July 19, 2017 AC -0.67%
April 19, 2017 AC 5.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC -0.63%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC 9.02% (Biggest UP)
July 20, 2016 AC -1.62%
April 20, 2016 AC 0.90%
Jan. 21, 2016 AC -12.10% (Biggest DOWN)
Oct. 21, 2015 AC -5.24%
Avg + or – 4.03%
Bias -0.13%, so really no significant bias up or down.
With stock at 102.70, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 98.76 to 106.64
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 98.56 to 106.84
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 90.27 to 115.13
Options Bistro 