geewhiz112 1:32 pm on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,202 ), Earnings, ShortPuts ( 4,764 ), SPXcampaign ( 2,265 )

SPX Campaign

#coveredcalls
$GOOS BTC 4/26 51 calls and STO 5/17 55 calls at .80 debit. Stock at 52.73.

#earnings
$NFLX BTC 4/18 345/355/375/365 at 1.50. STO yesterday at 8.40. Thank you @jeffcp66. I was away from trading this morning and placed orders for the $NFLX trades last night. I know I am not good, but this time lucky.

#shortputs
$NFLX BTC 4/18 340/350 BUPS at .40. STO 3/15 at 2.73
$NFLX BTC 4/18 310/330 BUPS at .20. STO 3/15 at 3.81

Above were partly offset by the $NFLX BTO 4/18 370 calls and 350 calls which were closed for 90% losses.

#spxcampaign
$SPX 4/17 2665/2685/2950/2930 Expired. STO at .90. Thank you @jeffcp66

Jeff 12:26 pm on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings

HON dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $HON Apr18/Apr26 162.5 #DoubleCalendar for .55.

thomberg1201 12:18 pm on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: Earnings, LongCalls ( 495 )

#earnings #longcalls SKX I bought…

#earnings #longcalls SKX
I bought a May 17, 35 call for 2.64. I own 100 shares from getting assigned last September, also short a 24 call (yes 24) with a cost basis of 31 for the position.

Jeff 9:38 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings, LongStraddle ( 59 )

AXP dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $AXP Apr18/Apr26 112 #DoubleCalendar for .48.

Also looking at a Dub Cal for $HON and a #LongStraddle on $SKX

Jeff 9:37 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: Earnings

HON earnings analysis

#Earnings $HON reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 1, 2019 BO +0.75%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -1.10%
July 20, 2018 BO +3.78% Biggest UP
April 20, 2018 BO +1.64%
Jan. 26, 2018 BO +1.94%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO +1.20%
July 21, 2017 BO +1.03%
April 21, 2017 BO +2.67%
Jan. 27, 2017 BO +0.38%
Oct. 21, 2016 BO +0.75%
July 22, 2016 BO -2.57% Biggest DOWN
April 22, 2016 BO -0.65%

Avg (+ or -) 1.54%
Bias 0.82%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 163.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.33 to 167.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 160.49 to 165.51
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (3.8%): 156.84 to 169.16
Based on DOWN max only (-2.6%): 158.81

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 9:08 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: Earnings

SKX earnings analysis

#Earnings $SKX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 7, 2019 AC +15.19%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%
April 21, 2016 AC +6.26%

Avg (+ or -) 16.20%
Bias 1.17%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 35.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.85 to 39.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 29.50 to 40.90
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 20.61 to 49.79
Based on DOWN max only (-27.0%): 25.68

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 9:05 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: Earnings

AXP earnings analysis

#Earnings $AXP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 17, 2019 AC +0.99%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +3.78%
July 18, 2018 AC -2.72% Biggest DOWN
April 18, 2018 AC +7.58%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -1.83%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -0.19%
July 19, 2017 AC -0.67%
April 19, 2017 AC +5.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC -0.63%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +9.02% Biggest UP
July 20, 2016 AC -1.62%
April 20, 2016 AC +0.90%

Avg (+ or -) 2.99%
Bias 1.71%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 111.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 107.89 to 115.11
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 108.17 to 114.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.0%): 101.44 to 121.56
Based on DOWN max only (-2.7%): 108.47

Open to requests for other symbols.

thomberg1201 8:18 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: Earnings

#earnings SKX Jeff-do you have…

#earnings SKX
Jeff-do you have SKX data? Thank you

Jeff 6:50 am on Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tags: Earnings, IronCondor ( 244 )

NFLX closed

#Earnings Bought to close $NFLX 345/355-365/375 #IronCondor for 4.15 and 4.16. Sold yesterday for 8.35. With price at dead center, taking profit and running as NFLX may still move big. Can’t Truss It.

Jeff 11:50 am on Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Tags: Earnings, IronCondor ( 244 )

NFLX tight condor

#Earnings Sold to Open $NFLX Apr 18th 345/355-365/375 #IronCondor for 8.35.

Risking 1.65 to make 5.00-7.00. Max win is about 8.35 but that’s only if I wait for expiration on Thursday. I’ll look to close this when (and if) stock price gets close enough to my 10-point center range for a profit.

NFLX often gaps big, but then sometimes will fade for the rest of the day (or two days). This is a smaller position as probability is lower and I don’t want to lose the max on a large position.

Jeff 9:51 am on Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings

IBM dub cal

#Earnings Bought to open $IBM Apr18/Apr26 145 #DoubleCalendar for .40. Surprised I was filled below mid price… partial fill, may have to raise bid to fulfill my full position.

This has a 5% average move… tomorrow’s breakevens are showing to be precisely at 5%. So this has an even chance of working, but also an additional day to fade any large move.

Jeff 7:32 am on Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Tags: Earnings

IBM earnings analysis

#Earnings $IBM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 22, 2019 AC +8.46%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC -7.62% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2018 AC +3.26%
April 17, 2018 AC -7.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -3.99%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +8.86% Biggest UP
July 18, 2017 AC -4.20%
April 18, 2017 AC -4.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC +2.24%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC -2.61%
July 18, 2016 AC -0.17%
April 18, 2016 AC -5.59%

Avg (+ or -) 4.95%
Bias -1.15%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 144.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 136.68 to 151.32
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 136.87 to 151.13
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.9%): 131.24 to 156.76
Based on DOWN max only (-7.6%): 133.03

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:39 am on Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Tags: Earnings

NFLX earnings analysis

#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC +3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC +19.02% Biggest UP
July 18, 2016 AC -13.12%
April 18, 2016 AC -12.97% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 8.36%
Bias 1.78%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 354.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 328.02 to 379.98
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 324.39 to 383.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 286.67 to 421.33
Based on DOWN max only (-13.1%): 307.56

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:48 am on Monday, April 15, 2019
Tags: Earnings

UNH earnings analysis

#Earnings $UNH reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 15, 2019 BO +3.55%
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +4.73%
July 17, 2018 BO -2.60% Biggest DOWN
April 17, 2018 BO +3.57%
Jan. 16, 2018 BO +4.28%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO +5.53%
July 18, 2017 BO +0.26%
April 18, 2017 BO +0.84%
Jan. 17, 2017 BO -0.70%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +6.90% Biggest UP
July 19, 2016 BO +1.30%
April 19, 2016 BO +2.10%

Avg (+ or -) 3.03%
Bias 2.48%, strongly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 227.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 215.83 to 239.17
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 220.61 to 234.39
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.9%): 211.80 to 243.20
Based on DOWN max only (-2.6%): 221.59

Open to requests for other symbols.

thomberg1201 7:31 am on Monday, April 15, 2019
Tags: closing ( 266 ), Earnings

#earnings #closing DAL April 9,…

#earnings #closing DAL

April 9, sold May 17, 52.50/60 strangle for 1.58, bought today for .98.

Jeff 7:14 am on Monday, April 15, 2019
Tags: Earnings

JNJ earnings analysis

#Earnings $JNJ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 22, 2019 BO -1.44%
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +1.94%
July 17, 2018 BO +3.54%
April 17, 2018 BO -0.92%
Jan. 23, 2018 BO -4.25% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 17, 2017 BO +3.43% Biggest UP
July 18, 2017 BO +1.74%
April 18, 2017 BO -3.10%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO -1.88%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO -2.59%
July 19, 2016 BO +1.71%
April 19, 2016 BO +1.57%

Avg (+ or -) 2.34%
Bias -0.02%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 136.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 131.62 to 140.88
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 133.06 to 139.44
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.3%): 130.46 to 142.04
Based on DOWN max only (+3.5%): 141.07

Open to requests for other symbols.

thomberg1201 6:36 am on Monday, April 15, 2019
Tags: closing ( 266 ), Earnings

#earnings #closing KR March 6,…

#earnings #closing KR

March 6, sold an April 18, 28 straddle for 2.76, bought today for 2.46.

Jeff 1:06 pm on Friday, April 12, 2019
Tags: Earnings, IronCondor ( 244 )

PNC up and out

#Earnings I played this one exactly right… slightly bearish lean. Today’s +3.1% day is the highest one-day move up after earnings since January 2013. So, expiring with 3.00 exercise cost, $PNC #IronCondor, sold yesterday for 2.00.

Jeff 8:04 am on Friday, April 12, 2019
Tags: Earnings

GS earnings analysis

#Earnings $GS reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Since expiration is not until next Friday, I checked 5-day moves and they are slightly bigger than the one-day moves, but not a huge difference.

Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -0.61%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +2.14%
July 19, 2016 BO -1.17%
April 19, 2016 BO +2.28%

Avg (+ or -) 2.69%
Bias 0.13%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 207.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 197.93 to 217.07
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 201.91 to 213.09
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 187.70 to 227.30
Based on DOWN max only (-4.7%): 197.73

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:31 am on Thursday, April 11, 2019
Tags: Earnings, IronCondor ( 244 )

PNC (slightly) bearish condor

#Earnings Sold $PNC Apr 12th 124/127-128/131 #IronCondor for 2.00.

Risking 1.00 to make 2.00. Sightly bearish due to its recent history.

Jeff 7:22 am on Thursday, April 11, 2019
Tags: Earnings, IronCondor ( 244 )

PNC earnings analysis

#Earnings $PNC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Comparing 1-point-wide, 3-point-wing #IronCondor trades, PNC comes out with a much better R/R than does $JPM. PNC has a slightly lower average move, but weighted toward downside.

Jan. 16, 2019 BO +0.07%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -5.58% Biggest DOWN
July 13, 2018 BO +0.23%
April 13, 2018 BO -4.11%
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +0.23%
Oct. 13, 2017 BO -1.12%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.11%
April 13, 2017 BO -0.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.72% Biggest UP
Oct. 14, 2016 BO +0.10%
July 15, 2016 BO -0.96%
April 14, 2016 BO -0.56%

Avg (+ or -) 1.16%
Bias -0.94%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 128.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 124.74 to 132.26
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 127.01 to 129.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.6%): 121.33 to 135.67
Based on UP max only (+0.7%): 129.43

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:59 am on Thursday, April 11, 2019
Tags: Earnings

JPM earnings analysis

#Earnings $JPM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.73%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -1.09%
July 13, 2018 BO -0.45%
April 13, 2018 BO -2.70% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +1.65%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -0.28%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.91%
April 13, 2017 BO -1.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.53%
Oct. 14, 2016 BO -0.32%
July 14, 2016 BO +1.51%
April 13, 2016 BO +4.23% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 1.30%
Bias 0.14%, no significant directional bias on earnings.

With stock at 106.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 104.08 to 108.92
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 105.12 to 107.88
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.2%): 102.00 to 111.00
Based on DOWN max only (-2.7%): 103.62

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:49 am on Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Tags: Earnings

BBBY earnings analysis

#Earnings $BBBY reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 9, 2019 AC +16.55% Biggest UP
Sept. 26, 2018 AC -20.99% Biggest DOWN
June 27, 2018 AC -3.81%
April 11, 2018 AC -19.95%
Dec. 20, 2017 AC -12.49%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -15.87%
June 22, 2017 AC -12.12%
April 5, 2017 AC +3.38%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC -9.17%
Sept. 21, 2016 AC +0.74%
June 22, 2016 AC +1.50%
April 6, 2016 AC +0.32%

Avg (+ or -) 9.74%
Bias -5.99%, strong negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 18.90 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 16.52 to 21.28
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 17.06 to 20.74
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 14.93 to 22.87
Based on UP max only (+16.6%): 22.03

Open to requests for other symbols.

fuzzballl 11:08 am on Tuesday, April 9, 2019
Tags: Earnings, ShortPuts ( 4,764 )

T Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Re-loading for earnings…

Sold T APR 26 2019 31.5 Puts @ .51

Jeff 7:04 am on Tuesday, April 9, 2019
Tags: Earnings, IronCondor ( 244 ), pietrades ( 240 )

DAL earnings analysis

#Earnings $DAL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.16%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO +3.56%
July 12, 2018 BO +1.78%
April 12, 2018 BO +2.93%
Jan. 11, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
Oct. 11, 2017 BO +0.70%
July 13, 2017 BO -1.76% Biggest DOWN
April 12, 2017 BO -0.52%
Jan. 12, 2017 BO -1.06%
Oct. 13, 2016 BO +1.88%
July 14, 2016 BO +3.58%
April 14, 2016 BO +0.93%

Avg (+ or -) 1.97%
Bias 1.41%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 57.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 54.79 to 59.21
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 55.88 to 58.12
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 54.29 to 59.71
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 56.00

Open to requests for other symbols.

#ironcondor, #pietrades

thomberg1201 12:44 pm on Monday, April 8, 2019
Tags: Earnings

#earnings First Quarter I put…

#earnings First Quarter
I put on 38 earnings trades Jan-April 1, 5 were losers, GS being an $800 loser. A few are still out there being rolled, including KR, EA, LRCX , AVGO, LULU and GLW. Most of the trades were strangles and iron condors out several weeks after the earnings dates, plus a few double calendars.

thomberg1201 8:57 am on Monday, April 8, 2019
Tags: Earnings, Rolling ( 449 )

#earnings #rolling EA Rolled an…

#earnings #rolling EA
Rolled an inverted strangle from Feb. earnings that has been rolled a couple times to May 3, just before next earnings. I am short a 90 call and a 105 put and have collected $1, 552 in premium.

Jeff 11:28 am on Thursday, April 4, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings

STZ out

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Sold to close $STZ Apr5/Apr12 180 dbl cals for .51 (avg price). Bought yesterday for .785

As I commented below, today’s action is an indication that earnings released in the AM may tend to have more intraday movement than those that report the night before. This is because the conference call will start or continue into the trading hours. For reports in the afternoon, all of the info has been absorbed over night and that could mean less movement.

So, waiting this morning was not such a good idea, because with the perfect opening we need to grab the profit before the ongoing conference call affects the price.

fuzzballl 9:24 am on Thursday, April 4, 2019
Tags: Earnings, ShortPuts ( 4,764 )

STZ Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Not waiting around another 2 weeks for 15 cents…

Bought to Close STZ APR 18 2019 170.0 Put @ .15 (sold for 2.20)

Jeff 12:26 pm on Wednesday, April 3, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings, Webinars ( 3 )

Double Calendar Webinar recording

#Webinars #Earnings #DoubleCalendar Please include any questions in the comments below!

Jeff 12:20 pm on Wednesday, April 3, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings

STZ double calendar

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Bought to Open $STZ Apr05/Apr12 180 dbl cal for .78 & .80.

Jeff 6:40 am on Wednesday, April 3, 2019
Tags: Earnings

STZ earnings analysis

#Earnings $STZ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 9, 2019 BO -12.41% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 BO +5.38%
June 29, 2018 BO -1.78%
March 29, 2018 BO +5.31%
Jan. 5, 2018 BO -0.21%
Oct. 5, 2017 BO +5.41%
June 29, 2017 BO +9.75%
April 6, 2017 BO +9.60%
Jan. 5, 2017 BO +0.47%
Oct. 5, 2016 BO +0.07%
June 30, 2016 BO +6.37%
April 6, 2016 BO +13.07% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 5.82%
Bias 3.42%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 177.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 167.70 to 187.30
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 167.17 to 187.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 154.30 to 200.70
Based on DOWN max only (-12.4%): 155.47

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 9:19 am on Tuesday, April 2, 2019
Tags: Earnings, FallingKnife ( 964 )

SIG earnings analysis

#Earnings $SIG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

I have never traded this, but it is a big mover

Dec. 6, 2018 BO -18.04%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO +23.84% Biggest UP
June 6, 2018 BO +18.39%
March 14, 2018 BO -20.22%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -30.39% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +16.66%
May 25, 2017 BO -7.75%
March 9, 2017 BO +8.72%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +2.14%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -12.62%
May 26, 2016 BO -10.49%
March 24, 2016 BO +2.88%

Avg (+ or -) 14.35%
Bias -2.24%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 27.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 23.31 to 31.69
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 23.56 to 31.44
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (30.4%): 19.14 to 35.86
Based on UP max only (+23.8%): 34.06

Open to requests for other symbols.

#fallingknife

Jeff 1:15 pm on Friday, March 29, 2019
Tags: Earnings, IronButterfly ( 141 ), SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte and final trades

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 1st 2790/2770 put spreads for .45. This is a roll-up from the puts closed this morning. I’m leaving the 2855/2875 call spread in place.

Expiring: March 29th 2770/2790-2845/2860 condors, sold this morning for 1.10.

#Earnings $CCL #IronButterfly from Monday a flop… exercising for loss of 1.25 on the sale for 2.25.

Jeff 6:49 am on Thursday, March 28, 2019
Tags: Earnings

RH earnings analysis

#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Always a big mover. Expected move is less than average move, meaning options are underpriced.

Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75%
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69%
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%
Sept. 8, 2016 AC +3.08%
June 8, 2016 AC -21.23%
March 29, 2016 AC +3.97%

Avg (+ or -) 17.46%
Bias 4.45%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 130.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 111.45 to 148.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 107.30 to 152.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (44.8%): 71.83 to 188.18
Based on DOWN max only (-25.7%): 96.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

thomberg1201 6:47 am on Thursday, March 28, 2019
Tags: Earnings

#earnings FIVE LULU Bought FIVE…

#earnings FIVE LULU

Bought FIVE strangle for .35, sold yesterday for 1.17.
I think it’s safe to say I didn’t need the LULU hedge.

thomberg1201 8:36 am on Wednesday, March 27, 2019
Tags: Earnings

#earnings FIVE Sold April 18,…

#earnings FIVE

Sold April 18, 100/145 strangle for 1.17. Thanks again Jeff.

thomberg1201 7:39 am on Wednesday, March 27, 2019
Tags: Earnings

#earnings LULU Sold May 17,…

#earnings LULU

Sold May 17, 110/180 strangle for 1.97, thanks for the data Jeff.

Jeff 6:53 am on Wednesday, March 27, 2019
Tags: Earnings

FIVE earnings analysis

#Earnings $FIVE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

This stock is one of the most historically bullish movers on earnings.

Dec. 6, 2018 BO -2.66%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC +21.86%
March 21, 2018 AC +4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45%
June 1, 2017 AC +0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC +10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC +9.87%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -1.14%
June 2, 2016 AC +2.07%
March 22, 2016 AC +6.81%

Avg (+ or -) 6.43%
Bias 5.14%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 118.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 108.40 to 128.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 110.88 to 126.12
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.9%): 92.60 to 144.40
Based on DOWN max only (-3.5%): 114.41

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:41 am on Wednesday, March 27, 2019
Tags: Earnings

LULU earnings analysis

#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36%
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31%
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC +11.54%
March 29, 2017 AC -23.43%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +15.04%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -10.55%
June 8, 2016 BO +4.90%
March 30, 2016 BO +10.71%

Avg (+ or -) 11.81%
Bias 3.92%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 144.550 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 130.30 to 158.70
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 127.43 to 161.57
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.4%): 110.64 to 178.36
Based on UP max only (+16.3%): 168.07

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 9:21 am on Monday, March 25, 2019
Tags: Earnings, IronButterfly ( 141 )

CCL earnings trade and analysis

#Earnings — I’m selling the CCL Mar 29th 53/56.5/60 #IronButterfly. Trying for 2.30, but will likely have to go lower. Not a big mover… its only large move was in December during the Christmas dive.

$CCL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 20, 2018 BO -9.48% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 27, 2018 BO -4.83%
June 25, 2018 BO -7.85%
March 22, 2018 BO -1.28%
Dec. 19, 2017 BO +2.29%
Sept. 26, 2017 BO +2.86%
June 22, 2017 BO -1.11%
March 28, 2017 BO +0.66%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +2.27%
Sept. 26, 2016 BO -1.67%
June 28, 2016 BO +0.20%
March 30, 2016 BO +5.49% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias -1.04%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 56.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.53 to 59.48
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 54.62 to 58.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 51.14 to 61.86
Based on UP max only (+5.5%): 59.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 1:05 pm on Friday, March 22, 2019
Tags: BrokenWingButterfly ( 30 ), DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings

Final Trades and Expirations

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to close $NKE Mar22/Mar29 88 put calendar for .02. Holding long 88 calls into next Friday. Good job by Mort closing the put calendar earlier at .17… I just had too much faith. Double Calendars bought yesterday for .49.

Exercising: $TIF 96/100/102 calls #BrokenWingButterfly for 2.00. Bought yesterday for 1.50. Allowing to exercise on IB for about 70 cents in fees per lot, but closed manually for 2.00 on TOS to avoid $45 in fees.

Jeff 11:01 am on Thursday, March 21, 2019
Tags: BrokenWingButterfly ( 30 ), Earnings

TIF earnings butterfly (bullish)

#Earnings Bought to Open $TIF 96/100/102 #BrokenWingButterfly (calls) for 1.50.
Max loss: $150
Downside breakeven: 97.50
Max profit: 2.50 (if pin at 100)
Capped profit at 102 and above: .50

Jeff 10:39 am on Thursday, March 21, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings

NKE dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $NKE Mar22/Mar29 88 #DoubleCalendar for .49.

Jeff 10:15 am on Thursday, March 21, 2019
Tags: Earnings

TIF earnings analysis

#Earnings — $TIF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 28, 2018 BO -11.82% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 28, 2018 BO +0.99%
May 23, 2018 BO +23.28% Biggest UP
March 16, 2018 BO -5.06%
Nov. 29, 2017 BO -1.58%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO -1.32%
May 24, 2017 BO -8.70%
March 17, 2017 BO +2.71%
Nov. 29, 2016 BO +3.14%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO +6.40%
May 25, 2016 BO +0.06%
March 18, 2016 BO +2.95%

Avg (+ or -) 5.67%
Bias 0.92%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 100.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 93.90 to 106.10
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 94.33 to 105.67
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.3%): 76.72 to 123.28
Based on DOWN max only (-11.8%): 88.18

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 10:06 am on Thursday, March 21, 2019
Tags: Earnings

NKE earnings analysis

#Earnings — $NKE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%
March 21, 2017 AC -7.05% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2016 AC +0.98%
Sept. 27, 2016 AC -3.77%
June 28, 2016 AC +3.84%
March 22, 2016 AC -3.79%

Avg (+ or -) 4.54%
Bias 1.19%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 87.70 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 83.36 to 92.04
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 83.72 to 91.68
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.7%): 77.95 to 97.45
Based on DOWN max only (-7.1%): 81.53

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 11:34 am on Wednesday, March 20, 2019
Tags: Earnings

WSM earnings analysis

#Earnings — $WSM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings THIRTY-FOUR-day moves over the last 12 quarters, since the next available options are 29 days from expiry.

Thu 11/15/2018 AC -18.61% Biggest DOWN
Wed 08/22/2018 AC +4.62%
Wed 05/23/2018 AC +26.22% Biggest UP
Wed 03/14/2018 AC -9.19%
Thu 11/16/2017 AC +1.95%
Wed 08/23/2017 AC +15.20%
Wed 05/24/2017 AC -2.43%
Wed 03/15/2017 AC +11.99%
Thu 11/17/2016 AC +0.37%
Wed 08/24/2016 AC -6.61%
Wed 05/25/2016 AC -1.78%
Wed 03/16/2016 AC +0.38%

Avg (+ or -) 8.28%
Bias 1.84%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 57.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into APRIL EXPIRATION per TOS): 51.34 to 63.66
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 52.74 to 62.26
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (26.2%): 42.42 to 72.58
Based on DOWN max only (-18.6%): 46.80

Open to requests for other symbols.

thomberg1201 9:04 am on Wednesday, March 20, 2019
Tags: Earnings

#earnings (kind of)MU Sold May…

#earnings (kind of)MU

Sold May 17, 34/46 strangle for 1.62, profitable beyond the recent max 1 day moves. Thanks for the data Jeff.

thomberg1201 7:47 am on Wednesday, March 20, 2019
Tags: Earnings

#earnings FDX Yesterday sold April…

#earnings FDX

Yesterday sold April 18, 160/202.50 strangle for 1.67, bought today for 1.12.

Jeff 7:46 am on Wednesday, March 20, 2019
Tags: Earnings

MU earnings analysis

#Earnings — $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%
March 23, 2017 AC +7.40%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC +12.68% Biggest UP
Oct. 4, 2016 AC -0.56%
June 30, 2016 AC -9.15% Biggest DOWN
March 30, 2016 AC -0.09%

Avg (+ or -) 5.59%
Bias -0.02%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 40.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 37.05 to 42.95
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 37.76 to 42.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.7%): 34.93 to 45.07
Based on DOWN max only (-9.2%): 36.34

Open to requests for other symbols.

thomberg1201 9:39 am on Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Tags: Earnings

#earnings FDX Sold April 18,…

#earnings FDX

Sold April 18, 160/202.5 strangle for 1.67, break-evens, 158/204 are pretty close to the max 1 day moves of 160/205. Thanks Jeff.

Jeff 7:12 am on Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Tags: Earnings

FDX earnings analysis

#Earnings — $FDX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 18, 2018 AC -12.16% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -5.53%
June 19, 2018 AC -2.69%
March 20, 2018 AC -1.17%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +3.51%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC +2.08%
June 20, 2017 AC +1.60%
March 21, 2017 AC +2.12%
Dec. 20, 2016 AC -3.33%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC +6.89%
June 21, 2016 AC -4.53%
March 16, 2016 AC +11.83% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 4.79%
Bias -0.12%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 183.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 172.73 to 193.27
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 174.24 to 191.76
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.2%): 160.75 to 205.25
Based on UP max only (+11.8%): 204.65

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 1:01 pm on Friday, March 15, 2019
Tags: BrokenWingButterfly ( 30 ), CoveredCalls ( 2,202 ), DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings, OptionsExpiration ( 795 )

Final Trades and Expirations

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Sold to close $SFIX Mar 22nd 25 calls for 6.80. Waited since Wednesday for this to bounce meaningfully above 32.00, but it didn’t. So I lost a few extra cents on closing, since I covered the short puts and stock for 6.90.

Sold final batch of $ORCL 53 dub cals for .80. Also legged out of a couple to get .85 total. Never has there been a more perfect Friday for a double calendar. Bought for .23 & .24 yesterday.

Bought to close $INTC Mar 15th 50 #CoveredCalls for 4.30 to avoid assignment. Will replace with new calls or sell stock next week.

#OptionsExpiration
$AVGO 260/265/267.5 #BrokenWingButterfly (calls), exercising for 2.50 credit (bought for 1.70 yesterday).
$ADBE 245/250/280/285 condors, sold for 1.12 yesterday.
$SPX 2755/2775-2835/2855 condors, sold yesterday for .75

Jeff 7:42 am on Friday, March 15, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings

ORCL starting to close

#Earnings Sold to close first batch of $ORCL Mar15/Mar22 53 #DoubleCalendar for .50. Watching for better exit on the next batch. Bought yesterday for .23 and .24

Jeff 6:44 am on Friday, March 15, 2019
Tags: Earnings

OSTK earnings trade and analysis

#Earnings — $OSTK reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Thu 11/08/2018 AC -12.62%
Thu 08/09/2018 AC -14.77% Biggest DOWN
Tue 05/08/2018 AC -4.19%
Thu 03/15/2018 AC -3.63%
Wed 11/08/2017 AC +40.40% Biggest UP
Thu 08/03/2017 AC +6.99%
Thu 05/04/2017 AC -1.29%
Tue 01/31/2017 AC +1.20%
Thu 11/03/2016 AC +21.75%
Thu 08/04/2016 AC -0.74%
Tue 05/03/2016 AC +2.96%
Tue 02/09/2016 AC +30.59%

Avg (+ or -) 11.76%
Bias 5.55%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 20.25 the data suggests these ranges over FIVE days:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 16.43 to 24.07
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 17.87 to 22.63
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (40.4%): 12.07 to 28.43
Based on DOWN max only (-14.8%): 17.26

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 12:41 pm on Thursday, March 14, 2019
Tags: BrokenWingButterfly ( 30 ), Earnings

AVGO earnings trade

#Earnings Bpought to open $AVGO Mar 15th 260/265/267.5 call #BrokenWingButterfly for 1.70. No upside risk. Allows for a 3% downside move.

Jeff 11:22 am on Thursday, March 14, 2019
Tags: Earnings

ADBE earnings trade and analysis

#Earnings — Sold ADBE Mar 15th 245/250-280/285 condor for 1.12. Allows 5.7% move in either direction. Such a move has only been significantly exceeded twice in the data below.

$ADBE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 13, 2018 AC -7.28% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 13, 2018 AC +2.29%
June 14, 2018 AC -2.43%
March 15, 2018 AC +3.05%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +1.43%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -4.24%
June 20, 2017 AC +2.36%
March 16, 2017 AC +3.80%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -1.47%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC +7.11% Biggest UP
June 21, 2016 AC -5.72%
March 17, 2016 AC +3.84%

Avg (+ or -) 3.75%
Bias 0.23%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 265.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 252.53 to 277.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 255.06 to 274.94
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.3%): 245.71 to 284.29

Open to requests for other symbols.

thomberg1201 7:20 am on Thursday, March 14, 2019
Tags: Earnings, IronCondor ( 244 )

#earnings AVGO Sold April 18,…

#earnings AVGO

Sold April 18, 230/240/300/310 #ironcondor for 1.85, surprised to be filled. Break evens are outside past 1 day max moves. Thanks for the data Jeff.

Jeff 7:01 am on Thursday, March 14, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings

ORCL earnings trade and analysis

#Earnings — Bought ORCL Mar15/Mar22 53 #DoubleCalendar for .23 & .24.

$ORCL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 17, 2018 AC +0.26%
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -0.30%
June 19, 2018 AC -7.45%
March 19, 2018 AC -9.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 14, 2017 AC -3.76%
Sept. 14, 2017 AC -7.67%
June 21, 2017 AC +8.56% Biggest UP
March 15, 2017 AC +6.22%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -4.30%
Sept. 15, 2016 AC -4.74%
June 16, 2016 AC +2.69%
March 15, 2016 AC +3.82%

Avg (+ or -) 4.93%
Bias -1.34%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 53.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 50.52 to 55.48
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 50.39 to 55.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 48.00 to 58.00
Based on Max UP only (+8.6%): 57.54

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:36 am on Thursday, March 14, 2019
Tags: Earnings

AVGO earnings analysis

#Earnings — $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 6, 2018 AC +0.58%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 0.00%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%
June 1, 2017 AC +8.49% Biggest UP
March 1, 2017 AC +0.99%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC +4.90%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -2.24%
June 2, 2016 AC +4.93%
March 3, 2016 AC +6.35%

Avg (+ or -) 3.93%
Bias 1.72%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 271.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 257.74 to 284.26
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 260.34 to 281.66
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.5%): 247.99 to 294.01
Based on Max DOWN only (-4.8%): 257.96

Open to requests for other symbols.

thomberg1201 11:26 am on Wednesday, March 13, 2019
Tags: Earnings

#earnings AVGO Jeff I almost…

#earnings AVGO

Jeff I almost missed fan favorite AVGO reports tomorrow, do you have data? Thanks

Jeff 8:47 am on Wednesday, March 13, 2019
Tags: Earnings

DG earnings analysis

#Earnings — $DG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 4, 2018 BO -6.80%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -0.97%
May 31, 2018 BO -9.36%
March 15, 2018 BO +4.75%
Dec. 7, 2017 BO +2.77%
Aug. 31, 2017 BO -5.43%
June 1, 2017 BO +6.54%
March 16, 2017 BO +0.53%
Dec. 1, 2016 BO -4.96%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -17.62%
May 26, 2016 BO +4.61%
March 10, 2016 BO +10.66%

Avg (+ or -) 6.25%
Bias -1.27%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 121.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 114.40 to 127.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 113.44 to 128.56
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 99.68 to 142.32
Based on Max UP only (+10.7%): 133.90

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 8:37 am on Wednesday, March 13, 2019
Tags: Assignment ( 174 ), EarlyAssignment ( 19 ), Earnings, ShortStock ( 77 )

SFIX assignment

#Earnings #Assignment #EarlyAssignment #ShortStock
Assigned over half of my position on $SFIX short 25 calls. Closed short stock position for 31.90. Will sell long calls to cancel out loss, and hopefully cancel out original purchase too if I can get the stock just a bit higher.

thomberg1201 10:25 am on Monday, March 11, 2019
Tags: Earnings

#earnings MOMO Jeff do have…

#earnings MOMO

Jeff do have data on MOMO? Thanks

Jeff 7:28 am on Monday, March 11, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings

SFIX earnings trade and analysis

#Earnings — This is another cheap shot with a fairly new stock that’s been volatile. Profit range allows 20% in either direction. If this drifts toward the center during the week it could be a triple or quadruple.

Bought $SFIX Mar15/Mar22 25 #DoubleCalendar for .20, .24, .25.

$SFIX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

Dec. 10, 2018 AC -20.90%
Oct. 1, 2018 AC -35.15% Biggest DOWN
June 7, 2018 AC +26.48% Biggest UP
March 12, 2018 AC -3.60%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC -9.77%

Avg (+ or -) 19.18%
Bias -8.59%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 25.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 20.06 to 29.94
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 20.21 to 29.80
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (35.2%): 16.21 to 33.79
Based on Max UP only (+26.5%): 31.62

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:41 am on Friday, March 8, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings

Dub Cals closed

#Earnings Sold to close $COST Mar08/Mar15 217.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.33. Bought yesterday for 1.20. Only a 1-lot… chose not to wait for a pullback when expiration is today and small profit availabe.

Sold to close $SSYS Mar08/Mar15 26.5 dbl cal for .04. Bought for .16 on Wednesday.

$DLTR, looking to close ITM call side for .05 or .00

Dub cals didn’t work this week, but losses only totaled .40 plus commissions.

Jeff 11:47 am on Thursday, March 7, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings

COST dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $COST Mar08/Mar15 217.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.20. As yesterday, filled on TOS but not IB yet.

Jeff 11:44 am on Thursday, March 7, 2019
Tags: Earnings

BIG earnings analysis

#Earnings — $BIG reports tomorrow. Below are details on earnings EIGHT-day moves over the last 12 quarters (since next available options expire in 8 days).

Fri 12/07/2018 BO -29.28% Biggest DOWN
Fri 08/31/2018 BO -10.10%
Fri 06/01/2018 BO +4.54%
Fri 03/09/2018 BO -12.93%
Fri 12/01/2017 BO +0.76%
Fri 08/25/2017 BO -4.59%
Fri 05/26/2017 BO +3.28%
Fri 03/03/2017 BO -1.89%
Fri 12/02/2016 BO +8.09%
Fri 08/26/2016 BO -5.76%
Fri 05/27/2016 BO +18.85% Biggest UP
Fri 03/04/2016 BO +8.88%

Avg (+ or -) 9.08%
Bias -1.68%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 31.65 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 27.41 to 35.89
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 28.78 to 34.52
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (29.3%): 22.38 to 40.92
Based on Max UP only (+18.9%): 37.62

Open to requests for other symbols.

thomberg1201 11:33 am on Thursday, March 7, 2019
Tags: Earnings

#earnings BIG Jeff-do you have…

#earnings BIG

Jeff-do you have data on BIG? Thanks

Jeff 6:41 am on Thursday, March 7, 2019
Tags: Earnings

COST earnings analysis

#Earnings — $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 13, 2018 AC -8.58% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97%
May 25, 2017 AC +1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +2.43%
Sept. 29, 2016 AC +3.40%
May 25, 2016 AC +3.57% Biggest UP
March 2, 2016 AC -0.77%

Avg (+ or -) 3.43%
Bias -1.01%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 218.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 210.75 to 225.25
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 210.52 to 225.48
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.9%): 199.30 to 236.70
Based on Max UP only (+3.6%): 225.78

Open to requests for other symbols.

thomberg1201 12:03 pm on Wednesday, March 6, 2019
Tags: Earnings

#earnings KR Sold April 18,…

#earnings KR

Sold April 18, 28 straddle fr 2.75

Jeff 11:23 am on Wednesday, March 6, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings

SSYS dub cal

#Earnings As $DLTR ascends to the heavens, leaving my calendar in the dust, I’m trying another cheap one. $SSYS has an average move of 9% but for 20 cents, worth the shot.

I was filled on TOS with a 1-lot for .16. Kind of crazy. The fill shows I sold the Mar08 short call for 1.49 and bought the Mar15 long call for 1.50. Only a one penny spread? Meanwhile, my order at Interactive Brokers is in for .20 and not filling. Go figure.

Bought to Open $SSYS Mar08/Mar15 26.5 #DoubleCalendar for .16, trying for more at .20

Jeff 11:13 am on Wednesday, March 6, 2019
Tags: BrokenWingButterfly ( 30 ), Earnings

BURL trade

#Earnings Bought to open $BURL Mar 8th 167.5/172.5/175 #BrokenWingButterfly (calls) for 1.40. No upside risk…

Max loss debit paid (1.40) if below 167.25.
Breakeven 168.85.
Max gain, 3.60 if Friday pin at 172.50.
Capped gain if over 175.00, 1.10.

Jeff 7:47 am on Wednesday, March 6, 2019
Tags: Earnings

KR earnings analysis

#Earnings — $KR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 6, 2018 BO +3.21%
Sept. 13, 2018 BO -9.92%
June 21, 2018 BO +9.74% Biggest UP
March 8, 2018 BO -12.39%
Nov. 30, 2017 BO +6.07%
Sept. 8, 2017 BO -7.50%
June 15, 2017 BO -18.89% Biggest DOWN
March 2, 2017 BO -4.33%
Dec. 1, 2016 BO +3.28%
Sept. 9, 2016 BO +0.63%
June 16, 2016 BO -0.67%
March 3, 2016 BO -7.01%

Avg (+ or -) 6.97%
Bias -3.15%, strong negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 28.80 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 26.65 to 30.95
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 26.79 to 30.81
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.9%): 23.36 to 34.24
Based on Max UP only (9.7%): 31.61

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:03 am on Wednesday, March 6, 2019
Tags: Earnings, JadeLizard ( 130 )

BURL earnings analysis

#Earnings — $BURL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

I’m posting this one because it has a remarkably bullish response to earnings. Also, in a very long weekly squeeze. Will probably do a bullish butterfly, or maybe try my first #JadeLizard.

Nov. 28, 2018 BO +12.78%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -0.86%
May 31, 2018 BO +7.11%
March 8, 2018 BO +5.84%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -1.51%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +1.36%
May 25, 2017 BO +4.90%
March 2, 2017 BO +6.66%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +15.98% Biggest UP
Aug. 25, 2016 BO +3.12%
May 26, 2016 BO +7.44%
March 3, 2016 BO -2.78% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 5.86%
Bias 5.00%, very strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 170.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.81 to 181.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 160.04 to 179.96
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.0%): 142.83 to 197.17
Based on Max DOWN only (-2.8%): 165.27

Open to requests for other symbols.