#Earnings Bought to Open $NTAP Feb15/Feb22 68 #DoubleCalendar for .39.
Tag Archives: Earnings
CSCO dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $CSCO Feb15/Feb22 47.5 #DoubleCalendar for .18.
Price has gone up on NTAP so looking to buy now.
NTAP and CSCO for earnings
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Both $NTAP and $CSCO make very cheap double calendars. Especially NTAP, which can probably be bought for around .20 and may offer profits as high as 2.00, if there is not a super large move. Even with a modest move, this should still turn a profit, but if not, it’s only .20. CSCO will go for a similar price but will offer a lower return.
FOSL earnings analysis
#Earnings — $FOSL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2018 AC +5.75%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -11.63%
May 8, 2018 AC +9.06%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +87.72% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -17.22%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -25.08%
May 9, 2017 AC -20.44%
Feb. 14, 2017 AC -14.82%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +3.52%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +0.69%
May 10, 2016 AC -29.07% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 16, 2016 AC +28.55%
Avg (+ or -) 21.13%
Bias 1.42%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 16.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.28 to 19.12
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 12.78 to 19.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (87.7%): 1.99 to 30.41
YELP earnings analysis
#Earnings — $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65%
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66% Biggest UP
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +12.83%
May 5, 2016 AC +23.71%
Feb. 8, 2016 AC -2.30%
Avg (+ or -) 15.30%
Bias 1.50%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 38.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 33.76 to 43.74
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 32.82 to 44.68
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 28.03 to 49.47
#earnings TRIP ATVI Sometimes the…
#earnings TRIP ATVI
Sometimes the plan works
Sold TRIP 47.50/72.50 strangle for 1.20, bought today for .29
Sold ATVI 35/50 strangle for 1.03, bought today for .64
Thanks to Jeff for the data.
sometimes it doesn’t, still messin around with EA and GS
Closing more SHOP
#Earnings Funny story. I have two orders in to sell at 2.75, both 1-lots. And I had another order to sell 3 for 3.00. Guess which one filled?
Sold $SHOP #DoubleCalendar for 3.00. Bought for 1.60 on Monday.
#earnings TRIP Sold March 15,…
#earnings TRIP
Sold March 15, 47.50/72.50 for 1.20
Closing more
#Earnings Sold to close partial $UAA Feb 15th 21 calls for 1.25.
Sold to close partial $SHOP dbl cals for 2.55
#earnings ATVI Sold March 15,…
#earnings ATVI
Sold March 15, 35/50 strangle for 1.03. Thanks for the info Jeff.
ATVI earnings analysis
#Earnings — $ATVI reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -12.39% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -3.69%
May 3, 2018 AC +4.51%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +1.90%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -3.43%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -3.06%
May 4, 2017 AC +1.37%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +18.87% Biggest UP
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.85%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -0.66%
May 5, 2016 AC +8.47%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -7.86%
Avg (+ or -) 5.84%
Bias 0.02%, no bias on earnings.
With stock at 41.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 37.23 to 45.17
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 38.79 to 43.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.9%): 33.43 to 48.97
TRIP earnings analysis
#Earnings — $TAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2018 AC +15.25%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -11.22%
May 8, 2018 AC +22.79% Biggest UP
Feb. 14, 2018 AC +4.12%
Nov. 6, 2017 AC -23.22% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2017 AC +2.50%
May 9, 2017 AC +2.28%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC -10.96%
Nov. 8, 2016 AC -16.59%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC -8.49%
May 4, 2016 AC -1.72%
Feb. 11, 2016 BO +12.36%
Avg (+ or -) 10.96%
Bias -1.08%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 60.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.58 to 67.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 53.69 to 66.91
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.2%): 46.30 to 74.30
Earnings chart update
#Earnings All of the tentative symbols on the list for today are now being estimated for morning of 2/20: CRON, ICPT, SINA, and WB.
#earnings ATVI Jeff do you…
#earnings ATVI
Jeff do you have ATVI data? Thanks
Closing SHOP
#Earnings Sold to close partial $SHOP Feb15/Feb22 175 #DoubleCalendar for 2.10. Bought yesterday for 1.60. Price moving toward strike so trying to close the rest for higher credit.
$TAP Dbl Cal is tapping out. Will need to see if a bounce comes into Friday. This was cheap (.34), so no biggie.
$UAA no gap but drifting higher so this may turn out well. #LongStraddle bought for 2.50.
Earnings trades today
Bought $UAA Feb 15th 21 #LongStraddle for 2.50. Need a 11.9% move. Average has been 16.1%.
Bought $TAP Feb15/Feb22 65 #DoubleCalendar for .34. Super cheap!
Looking at a calendar for $SHOP, also cheap.
UAA earnings analysis
#Earnings — $UAA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters. NOTE: symbol UAA only lists history starting 1/31/17. The data before that date is for symbol $UA (below the line).
Tue 10/30/2018 BO +30.29% Biggest UP
Thu 07/26/2018 BO -4.60%
Tue 05/01/2018 BO -2.25%
Tue 02/13/2018 BO +22.00%
Tue 10/31/2017 BO -29.25% Biggest DOWN
Tue 08/01/2017 BO -8.14%
Thu 04/27/2017 BO +7.40%
Tue 01/31/2017 BO -28.47%
——————————
Tue 10/25/2016 BO -21.24%
Tue 07/26/2016 BO -9.47%
Thu 04/21/2016 BO +6.00%
Thu 01/28/2016 BO +24.13%
Avg (+ or -) 16.10%
Bias -1.13%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 21.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 18.26 to 23.74
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 17.62 to 24.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (30.3%): 14.64 to 27.36
TAP earnings analysis
#Earnings — $TAP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day range was roughly the same)
Oct. 31, 2018 BO +9.94% Biggest UP
Aug. 1, 2018 BO +3.47%
May 2, 2018 BO -15.40% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 BO +6.26%
Nov. 1, 2017 BO +0.21%
Aug. 2, 2017 BO +2.95%
May 4, 2017 BO +0.92%
Feb. 14, 2017 BO +3.41%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO +1.44%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO -0.05%
May 3, 2016 BO +1.59%
Feb. 11, 2016 BO -0.65%
Avg (+ or -) 3.86%
Bias 1.17%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 65.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 60.77 to 69.23
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 62.49 to 67.51
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.4%): 54.99 to 75.01
SHOP earnings analysis
#Earnings — $SHOP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day moves were similar, with a smaller range, meaning extreme 1-day moves are typically faded over the following days)
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +12.03% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO -6.66%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.45%
Feb. 15, 2018 BO +0.28%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2017 BO +5.77%
May 2, 2017 BO +7.40%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO +8.13%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +6.84%
Aug. 3, 2016 BO +9.72%
May 4, 2016 BO -3.67%
Feb. 17, 2016 BO +9.12%
Avg (+ or -) 6.92%
Bias 2.96%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 177.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 159.33 to 194.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 164.74 to 189.26
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.0%): 155.71 to 198.29
#earnings MAT Sold March 15,…
#earnings MAT
Sold March 15, 13 straddle for 1.92.
MAT earnings analysis
#Earnings $MAT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -2.81%
July 25, 2018 AC -4.17%
April 26, 2018 AC +1.35%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +7.89%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.91%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.79%
April 20, 2017 AC -13.56%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -17.64% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +6.00%
July 20, 2016 AC -0.30%
April 20, 2016 AC -5.78%
Feb. 1, 2016 AC +13.82% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 7.50%
Bias -2.66%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 12.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 11.04 to 13.56
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 11.38 to 13.22
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 10.13 to 14.47
Open for requests on other symbols.
SKX earnings analysis
#Earnings $SKX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%
April 21, 2016 AC +6.26%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC +3.93%
Avg (+ or -) 15.26%
Bias 0.23%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 27.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 23.69 to 31.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 23.30 to 31.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 16.10 to 38.90
Open for requests on other symbols.
#earnings SKX Jeff-can you show…
#earnings SKX MAT
Jeff-can you show data for SKX and MAT, volatility seems high on both? Thanks
#earnings TWTR Sold March 15…
#earnings TWTR
Sold March 15 28/42 strangle for 1.16, closed today for .77
FEYE and MPC closed
#Earnings Sold to close final $FEYE puts for 2.27.
Sold to close $MPC Feb08/Feb15 #DoubleCalendar for .85. Bought yesterday for .65
EXPE earnings analysis
#Earnings $EXPE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +2.49%
July 26, 2018 AC +9.53%
April 26, 2018 AC +8.19%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -15.46%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -15.98% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 AC +3.40%
April 27, 2017 AC -1.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -0.48%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +4.12%
July 28, 2016 AC -2.19%
April 28, 2016 AC +8.20%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC +9.56% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 6.79%
Bias 0.80%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 127.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 118.87 to 136.13
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 118.85 to 135.15
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.0%): 107.13 to 147.87
Open for requests on other symbols.
FEYE earnings
#Earnings #LongStraddle Sold to close $FEYE Feb 8th 18.5 puts for 2.05 and 2.40. Still holding a few more. Straddles bought yesterday for 1.81. Smaller return that usual, but I’ll take it.
Working on $MPC exit. Also will not be as good as CMI was yesterday, but still a winner.
#earnings #shortstrangles TWTR Sold March…
#earnings #shortstrangles TWTR
Sold March 15, 28/42 strangle for 1.16
Earnings trades
#Earnings Bought to Open $FEYE Feb 8th 18.5 #LongStraddle for 1.81. Need a 9.7% move, which is the 12-quarter average.
Bought to Open $MPC Feb08/Feb15 67.5 #DoubleCalendar for .65.
FEYE earnings analysis
#Earnings $FEYE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +9.73%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -1.91%
May 2, 2018 AC -9.70%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +9.34%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -10.32%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +0.74%
May 2, 2017 AC +12.85% Biggest UP
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -15.72%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +12.07%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -12.05%
May 5, 2016 AC -19.02% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -3.30%
Avg (+ or -) 9.73%
Bias -2.27%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 18.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 16.45 to 20.05
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 16.47 to 20.03
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 14.78 to 21.72
Open for requests on other symbols.
CMG earnings analysis
#Earnings $CMG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +3.42%
July 26, 2018 AC +5.71%
April 25, 2018 AC +24.44% Biggest UP
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -10.55%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -14.58% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 AC -2.30%
April 25, 2017 AC +2.38%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -4.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -9.28%
July 21, 2016 AC +5.83%
April 26, 2016 AC -6.43%
Feb. 2, 2016 AC -2.92%
Avg (+ or -) 7.70%
Bias -0.74%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 521.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 484.07 to 557.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 480.89 to 561.11
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24.4%): 393.67 to 648.33
Open for requests on other symbols.
Earnings trades, CMI, SNAP, DECK partially closed
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Sold to close partial $CMI Feb08/Feb15 149 dbl cal for 1.20. Waiting for price to move closer to my strike to close more. Bought yesterday for .65
#LongStraddle Sold to close partial $SNAP Feb 8th 7 calls for 1.75. Watching for a move higher. Straddles bought yesterday for 1.03.
#IronCondor Bought to close partial $DECK Feb 15th 105/110/145/150 condors for .50. Sold Thursday for .86.
SNAP straddle
#Earnings Bought to Open $SNAP Feb 8th 7 #LongStraddle for 1.03 (partial fill so far, may need to go to 1.04).
CMI dbl cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $CMI Feb08/Feb15 149 #DoubleCalendar for .65. (filled at .63 on TOS)
CMI earnings analysis – dbl calendar candidate
#Earnings — This one is a good double calendar candidate because it is cheap to buy. Premium for this Friday is not much lower than premium for next Friday. That gives us a pretty good range of profit; a range almost as wide as the max moves.
$CMI reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 30, 2018 BO +2.29%
July 31, 2018 BO +4.08%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.11%
Feb. 6, 2018 BO -2.33%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -1.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.64% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2017 BO +6.09%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +3.06%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO -4.32%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO -0.62%
May 3, 2016 BO +1.77%
Feb. 4, 2016 BO +7.62% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.65%
Bias 0.50%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 148.80 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 142.54 to 155.06
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 143.36 to 154.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.6%): 137.46 to 160.14
SNAP earnings analysis – straddle candidate
#Earnings $SNAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -10.15%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -6.78%
May 1, 2018 AC -21.93%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC +47.58% Biggest UP (the only UP)
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -14.61%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -14.08%
May 10, 2017 AC -21.45% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 19.51%
Bias -5.92%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 6.82 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 5.75 to 7.89
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 5.49 to 8.15
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (47.6%): 3.58 to 10.06
Cost of a straddle is about 1.10. The AVG move has been 1.38. Nice low risk straddle candidate.
Open for requests on other symbols.
#earnings EA Sold March 15,…
#earnings EA
Sold March 15, 80/100 strangle for 2.89.
#earnings #closing BA Jan. 29…
REGN earnings analysis
#Earnings $REGN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO +1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
May 5, 2016 BO +4.73%
Feb. 9, 2016 BO -6.28% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 3.36%
Bias 0.87%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 425.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 403.84 to 446.16
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 410.73 to 439.27
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 395.29 to 454.71
Open for requests on other symbols.
DATA earnings analysis
#Earnings $DATA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 6, 2018 AC +15.35% Biggest UP
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -6.64%
May 2, 2018 AC +6.58%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +8.97%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -9.21%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +9.02%
May 3, 2017 AC +6.12%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC +14.66%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -12.11%
Aug. 2, 2016 AC -5.67%
May 5, 2016 AC -11.31%
Feb. 4, 2016 AC -49.44% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 12.92%
Bias -2.81%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 132.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 119.66 to 144.34
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 114.94 to 149.06
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (49.4%): 66.74 to 197.26
Open for requests on other symbols.
GOOGL earnings analysis
#Earnings $GOOGL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Thu 10/25/2018 AC -4.90%
Mon 07/23/2018 AC +3.46%
Mon 04/23/2018 AC -3.94%
Thu 02/01/2018 AC -8.22%
Thu 10/26/2017 AC +4.20%
Mon 07/24/2017 AC -4.00%
Thu 04/27/2017 AC +5.12% Biggest UP
Thu 01/26/2017 AC -4.29%
Thu 10/27/2016 AC -1.45%
Thu 07/28/2016 AC +4.47%
Thu 04/21/2016 AC -7.00%
Mon 02/01/2016 AC -8.69% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 4.98%
Bias -2.10%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 1135.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1082.60 to 1187.40
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1078.50 to 1191.50
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.7%): 1036.37 to 1233.63
Open for requests on other symbols.
#earnings #closing IBM January 22…
AMZN closed
#Earnings BTC $AMZN Feb 1st 1600/1590 put spreads for .25. Not going to mess with this one if it decides to get cute. Condors sold yesterday for 2.00.
EW closed, and remaining earnings trades
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to close $EW Feb01/Feb08 170 dbl cals for 3.25 (avg price). Bought yesterday for 1.57.
#IronButterfly $NOW expiring at max loss of .65.
#IronCondor $AMZN expiring at full profit, sold yesterday for 2.00.
#LongStraddle $EBAY straddle bought for 2.23 on Tuesday. It had a subtle move, so I played the swings and managed to sell for 1.168. Even when long straddles miss, they aren’t too bad provided you have a few days and some swings.
INTC trades
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar #LongStock #CoveredCalls #Dividends
Lat week’s double cal didn’t work but I stuck with the trade, selling the long put and taking assignment, cost basis of 47.34.
Today I lightened the load, selling slightly less than half of the stock for 49.00.
I’m converting the rest into a #PieTrade, so I sold to Open $INTC March 15th 50 covered calls for 1.01.
#earnings #doublecalendar INTC January 24,…
#earnings #doublecalendar INTC
January 24, bought a Jan. 25/Feb 1, strike 50 double calendar (following Jeff), Jan. 25, rolled the short put to March and sold the long put as INTC went down after earnings. Closed the March put today making 98.93 after all transactions.
Double Cals
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar For 2nd quarter in a row, $EW is killing it on this strategy. The long options (Feb 8th) retain a lot of value, but because stock price is so close to my 170 strike, I was able to exit partial for 4.30 near the open. Now waiting for even a better price as the Feb 1st short options decay.
$MRK was the loser…. Sold to close $MRK Feb01/Feb08 74.5 dbl cals for .30. bought yesterday for .47
Working on the $HON exit. Looks like I’ll be able to get a slight profit.
BA earnings closed
#Earnings #Iron Condor This one is close to full loss, but I closed the call side for 4.50, a discount from what is likely to be an expiration of 5.00. Sold the condors for 1.75. Closed the $BA Feb 1st 380/385 call spreads for 4.50. Fortunately, earnings wins from this week will easily exceed this loss!
Double Calendar trades
Bought $HON Feb01/Feb08 144 for .85
Bought $MRK Feb01/Feb08 74.5 for .47
Bought $EW Feb01/Feb08 170 for 1.57
#earnings #shortputspread AMZN Sold March…
#earnings #shortputspread AMZN
Sold March 15, 1490/1500 put spread for 1.41
AMZN condor
#Earnings #IronCondor Sold to Open $AMZN Feb 1st 1590/1600-1870/1880 iron condors for 2.00.
#earnings #shortstrangles DECK Sold March…
#earnings #shortstrangles DECK
Sold March 15, 100/150 strangle for 2.12, stock is at 126.
DECK earnings analysis
#Earnings $DECK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +6.18%
July 26, 2018 AC -6.87%
May 24, 2018 AC +3.54%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +7.30%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +3.32%
July 27, 2017 AC +1.59%
May 25, 2017 AC +18.80% Biggest UP
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -16.06% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +7.11%
July 28, 2016 AC +4.06%
May 26, 2016 AC +7.99%
Feb. 4, 2016 AC -1.96%
Avg (+ or -) 7.07%
Bias 2.92%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 125.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 112.87 to 138.13
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 116.63 to 134.37
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.8%): 101.91 to 149.09
Open for requests on other symbols.
Double Calendar Candidates
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar These stocks all have fairly muted historical moves but decent IV elevation for earnings: $CI, $CVX, $HON, $MRK. Also, $EW was my biggest winner in this strategy last quarter. It opened nearly flat and allowed for perfect exit. Then the stock dropped 5%. So its moves are a bit large for a calendar but it worked out, so I may try again.
EW earnings analysis
#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC +10.49% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2016 AC +5.62%
April 26, 2016 AC +0.08%
Feb. 2, 2016 AC +8.33%
Avg (+ or -) 6.81%
Bias -1.98%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 170.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 161.14 to 178.86
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 158.42 to 181.58
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 140.95 to 199.05
Open for requests on other symbols.
AMZN earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%
July 28, 2016 AC +0.82%
April 28, 2016 AC +9.56%
Jan. 28, 2016 AC -7.60%
Avg (+ or -) 4.82%
Bias 0.39%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 1732.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1639.50 to 1824.50
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1648.52 to 1815.48
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1503.20 to 1960.80
Open for requests on other symbols.
#earnings X Yesterday sold March…
Yesterday sold March 15, 22 straddle for 3.11, bought today for 2.64
#earnings MSFT Yesterday sold March…
#earnings MSFT
Yesterday sold March 15, 95/115 strangle for 1.89, bought today for 1.06, finally an earnings trade behaved appropriately. Now for NOW…
#earnings MSFT X TastyTrade ideas…
#earnings MSFT X
TastyTrade ideas
X sold March 15, 22 straddle for 3.11
MSFT sold March 15, 95/115 strangle for 1.89
Thank you for the earnings data Jeff.
MSFT earnings analysis
#Earnings $MSFT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +5.84%
July 19, 2018 AC +1.79%
April 26, 2018 AC +1.65%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -0.78%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +6.41% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC -0.57%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.27%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +2.34%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC +4.20%
July 19, 2016 AC +5.31%
April 21, 2016 AC -7.17% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 28, 2016 AC +5.82%
Avg (+ or -) 3.51%
Bias 2.09%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 105.90 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 101.22 to 110.58
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 102.18 to 109.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.2%): 98.31 to 113.49
Open for requests on other symbols.
NOW iron butterfly
Sold to open $NOW Feb 1st 185/190/195 iron butterflys for 4.35. Max risk .65. As I reported below, this one has been more of a minor mover in recent years, so seeing if it can maintain its calm. If not, max loss is tolerable.
Long Straddles
#LongStraddle #Earnings
Sold to Close final batch of $GLW Feb 1st 30 calls for 3.27. Netted about 60% profit (bought for 1.92 on Monday).
Sold to close some of the $EBAY Feb 1st 33.5 puts for .61. Straddles bought yesterday for 2.23. This one will be tough to breakeven, unless we get a rally over next couple days.
CRUS earnings analysis
#Earnings $CRUS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +3.10%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -7.01%
May 2, 2018 AC -1.53%
Feb. 5, 2018 AC -3.31%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -0.42%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -6.89%
May 3, 2017 AC +0.10%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -14.00% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +6.85%
July 27, 2016 AC +19.27% Biggest UP
April 26, 2016 AC +12.38%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC +16.38%
Avg (+ or -) 7.60%
Bias 2.08%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 38.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 35.03 to 40.97
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 35.11 to 40.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.3%): 30.68 to 45.32
Open for requests on other symbols.
NOW earnings analysis
#Earnings $NOW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +1.42%
July 25, 2018 AC +4.60%
April 25, 2018 AC +4.53%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +2.64%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +1.21%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.74%
April 26, 2017 AC +3.75%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +3.61%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +7.68%
July 27, 2016 AC +4.65%
April 20, 2016 AC +14.06% Biggest UP
Jan. 27, 2016 AC -15.65% Biggest DOWN (the only DOWN)
Avg (+ or -) 5.38%
Bias 2.77%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 189.90 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 117.65 to 202.15
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 179.69 to 200.11
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.7%): 160.18 to 219.62
Open for requests on other symbols.
WYNN earnings analysis
#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC +1.77%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC +15.83% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 7.14%
Bias -0.46%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 117.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 109.04 to 125.96
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 109.11 to 125.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.8%): 98.90 to 136.10
Open for requests on other symbols.
FB earnings analysis
#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC +2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -5.63%
July 27, 2016 AC +1.34%
April 27, 2016 AC +7.19%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC +15.52% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 6.01%
Bias 1.17%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 146.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 136.11 to 155.89
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 137.22 to 154.78
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 118.32 to 173.68
Open for requests on other symbols.
#earnings #ironcondor BA Sold Feb….
Sold Feb. 15, 335/340/390/395 IC for 1.31
EBAY earnings trade & analysis
#Earnings $EBAY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Bought $EBAY Feb 1st 33.5 straddle for 2.23.
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +5.87%
July 18, 2018 AC -10.11%
April 25, 2018 AC -5.58%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +13.82% Biggest UP
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -1.79%
July 20, 2017 AC -1.53%
April 19, 2017 AC -3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +4.99%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC -10.76%
July 20, 2016 AC +10.89%
April 26, 2016 AC +3.18%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC -12.45% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 7.07%
Bias -0.62%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 33.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 31.39 to 35.81
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 31.46 to 36.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.8%): 29.17 to 38.53
Open for requests on other symbols.
BA earnings trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $BA Feb 1st 345/350/380/385 #IronCondor for 1.78. About 3.8% on downside and 4.5% on upside.
BA earnings analysis
#Earnings $BA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 BO +1.31%
July 25, 2018 BO -0.65%
April 25, 2018 BO +4.19%
Jan. 31, 2018 BO +4.93%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO -2.84%
July 26, 2017 BO +9.87% Biggest UP
April 26, 2017 BO -0.98%
Jan. 25, 2017 BO +4.24%
Oct. 26, 2016 BO +4.68%
July 27, 2016 BO +0.82%
April 27, 2016 BO +2.88%
Jan. 27, 2016 BO -8.92% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 3.86%
Bias 1.63%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 365.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 350.40 t0 380.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 351.39 to 379.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.9%): 329.43 to 401.57
Open for requests on other symbols.
ADVANCE on TSLA
#Earnings $TSLA reports Wednesday night. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +6.50%
May 3, 2017 AC -5.00%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -6.40%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +0.87%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC +2.13%
May 4, 2016 AC -4.95%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC +4.73%
Avg (+ or -) 6.40%
Bias 0.19%, no significant directional bias on earnings.
With stock at 295.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 263.33 to 326.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 276.11 to 313.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.2%): 247.27 to 342.73
Open for requests on other symbols.
AMD earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMD reports tonight. Below are details on earnings THREE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
***NOTE: These are 3-day moves, since options traded for earnings will expire on Friday. These moves are bigger than 1-day moves. This stock can move BIG.
Wed 10/24/2018 AC -22.64%
Wed 07/25/2018 AC +18.01%
Wed 04/25/2018 AC +14.42%
Tue 01/30/2018 AC -3.26%
Tue 10/24/2017 AC -16.91%
Tue 07/25/2017 AC -1.13%
Mon 05/01/2017 AC -25.84% Biggest DOWN
Tue 01/31/2017 AC +18.03%
Thu 10/20/2016 AC -6.32%
Thu 07/21/2016 AC +11.87%
Thu 04/21/2016 AC +52.29% Biggest UP
Tue 01/19/2016 AC +3.58%
Avg (+ or -) 16.19%
Bias 3.51%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 19.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 17.19 to 22.01
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 16.43 to 22.77
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (52.3%): 9.35 to 29.85
Open for requests on other symbols.
GLW mostly closed
#Earnings #LongStraddle Sold to close $GLW Feb 1st 30 calls for 3.10. Straddles bought for 1.92 yesterday. I closed two-thirds of my position. Holding the rest for potentially higher prices into Friday.
BABA earnings analysis
#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
***NOTE: One-day moves are listed, but I included the extremes for 3-day moves as well. As you can see, big moves were followed by continuation for the three days following earnings.
*****NOTE #2: the EXPECTED move (per TOS) is higher than the Maximum 1-day historical moves. A bigger than usual move is expected, which could just mean options are overpriced. Note, however, that the three-day moves exceed the expected.
Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN — 3-day = -8.31%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO +0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +3.06%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -2.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO +5.08% Biggest UP — 3-day = +12.5%
May 5, 2016 BO +3.96%
Jan. 28, 2016 BO -3.76%
Avg (+ or -) 3.11%
Bias 0.03%, no directional bias on earnings.
With stock at 157.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 146.67 to 167.33
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 152.11 to 161.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.9%): 147.74 to 166.26
Open for requests on other symbols.
AAPL earnings analysis
#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings THREE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
***NOTE: These are 3-day moves, since options traded for earnings will expire on Friday. These moves are slightly bigger than 1-day moves.
Thu 11/01/2018 AC -6.63%
Tue 07/31/2018 AC +9.30% Biggest UP
Tue 05/01/2018 AC +8.71%
Thu 02/01/2018 AC -4.34%
Thu 11/02/2017 AC +2.61%
Tue 08/01/2017 AC +4.22%
Tue 05/02/2017 AC +0.98%
Tue 01/31/2017 AC +6.37%
Tue 10/25/2016 AC -3.83%
Tue 07/26/2016 AC +7.79%
Tue 04/26/2016 AC -10.16% Biggest DOWN
Tue 01/26/2016 AC -2.65%
Avg (+ or -) 5.63%
Bias 1.03%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 157.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 148.24 to 165.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 148.16 to 165.84
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.2%): 141.05 to 172.95
Open for requests on other symbols.
Options Bistro 