AN UPSIDE WARNING FIRED ON MONDAY after the VIX closed below the 78.6% retracement for three consecutive days. This means a very high likelihood of a continued rally in the days and weeks to come.
We also established a new high in the SPX, 2198.70, and have set a new post-correction low in the VIX, 12.16.
Tuesday’s levels that would reverse course and end the Upside Warning are 15.53 (25% above the 2-day closing low), and 18.24 (50% above Nov 21 low). #VIXIndicator
#Earnings $PANW has had an out-sized move down on earnings. Bought 100 shares at 140.85. Looking to unload with a move back above 150.
$DUST #ShortPuts – Sold 1 DUST Dec 30 2016 38.0 Put @ 3.30
$SVXY #ShortCalls – sold these two this afternoon with the stock just under 85.
Sold SVXY Dec 23 2016 95.0 Calls @ 1.10
Sold SVXY Dec 30 2016 95.0 Calls @ 1.45
BTO Dec 9th SPX 2190/2195 BuCS for $3.00; this is a poor sibling of the position I closed this morning too soon. I’ll close it if the SPX closes below the 5 EMA on the daily chart.
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 23rd 2200/2220 call spreads for 3.20. Sold for 4.00 on Nov 9th.
Sold to open SPX Nov 30th 2170/2145 put spreads for 2.50, 1.5x position size (#ReverseRoll)
The above stopped spread expires Wednesday but we could be up to 2210 by then. Reverse rolled back into some puts, one week further out. Also, bought some LONG call spreads, targeting a double or triple:
Bought to open $SPX Dec 5th 2230/2250 call spreads for 1.90.
#VXXGame Good idea, @fuzzballl
BTC UVXY Dec 16th 40 call for .04. Sold for 1.56 on Nov 3rd
BTC UVXY March 60 call for .38. Sold for 2.75 on Nov 3rd
#IRA No sense waiting a month for 3 cents…
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 16 2016 35.0/45.0 Bear call spreads @ .03 (sold for 1.00)
#Futures Currently short a Dec 2160 call sold for 17.00
SOLD /ES DEC 16 2150/1950 Bull Put Spread @ 11.50
This will raise the basis of the short call to 2188.50 and give a downside breakeven of 2121.50 on the put spread. I’ll gladly take the short position at 2188.50 and then sell weekly puts against it. Regrowing the hedge after booking the profits on the last one on election night.
BTC December 35 puts @0.05,STO @3.10
BTC December 37 puts @0.05, STO @1.75
SPX, new all-time high
I closed my November 25, 55/65 bear call spread for 0.80 cent which I sold for 0.90 cent so I am just glad to get that one off the books.
DUST
Closed Dec and Jan 60 calls, freed up 10K in margin. I’m aware it may have been wiser to see how far the price would drop, but both trades are profitable. As Fuzzball has pointed out, TD has a large margin requirement on these tickers. The margin increases with the stock price, at least for me it does.
#SPXcampaign Since signs are bullish with likely Upside Warning, sold the following ATM put spread as a roll from a stopped call spread from last week:
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 2190/2165 put spreads for 8.25, with SPX at 2190.
#SPXcampaign Buy To Close $SPX Dec 9 2235/2260 call spread @ 2.20. 2X Roll, STO Dec 23 2265/2290 call spreads @ 1.40. SPX @ 2192.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 2260/2285 call spreads for 1.70, with SPX at 2192.
#VIXIndicator If the VIX closes below 13.59 tonight, an Upside Warning is in effect. Here I am reposting some data I posted on July 14th.:
(An Upside Warning fires when the VIX closes below the Fib 78.6% retracement for three consecutive days)
1. 33 corrections since Nov 1999, as determined by the VIX Indicator’s downside signals. These corrections average 12.5% each. Smallest was 3% and largest was 53.7% (2008-9).
2. Of those corrections, an Upside Warning fired 28 of the 33 times.
3. In 27 out of 28 times, the SPX continued higher after the Warning.
4. The average SPX bottom to top recovery was 16.4%. The average rise AFTER the Warning was 6.40%. This means that the Upside Warning captured an average of 38.9% of each recovery.
5. The average amount of time between an Upside Warning and the next SPX high is 2.5 months.
For instance, in the recovery we are now in: SPX low was 1991 on June 27, high was 2169 on July 14. That is an 8.9% recovery. The Upside Warning fired Friday, July 8, when we closed at 2120.90. Since then, we topped out at 1.83% higher, which means the warning caught 21% of the move so far.
21% is below the 38.9% average, so more upside is definitely possible. But pullbacks can and do happen during Upside Warnings. A new spike in the VIX that triggers a Downside signal would end the Upside Warning.
In summary, when an Upside Warning fires it is almost guaranteed that more upside will come, and it could last several weeks.
Good Morning. BTC December 34 puts @0.05 one month early. These were sold @3.40
Options Bistro 