QQQ Iron Condor

Sold $QQQ 6/19 205/210/240/245 iron condor @ 1.60 with QQQ at 227.43. Almost 1/3 of the width of the strikes. Just about delta neutral with put and call short strikes at 21 and 20. IV rank 31.

Closing CINF

I didn’t expect to have an opportunity to close this so soon but I’ll take it. Bought to close $CINF 6/19 40 puts @ .51. Sold for 1.45 on 5/13. Captured 65% of the potential profit in 5 days.

#earnings #shortstrangles KSS Sold June…

#earnings #shortstrangles KSS

Sold June 19, 19 straddle for 4.22.
Thanks for the data Jeff

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX May 26th 2940/2960-2970/2990 condors for 17.15, with SPX at 2964

KSS earnings analysis

#Earnings $KSS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 3, 2020 BO -2.62%
Nov. 19, 2019 BO -19.48% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 20, 2019 BO -6.88%
May 21, 2019 BO -12.33%
March 5, 2019 BO +7.31% Biggest UP
Nov. 20, 2018 BO -9.22%
Aug. 21, 2018 BO +1.71%
May 22, 2018 BO -7.42%
March 1, 2018 BO -5.05%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +0.93%
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -5.79%
May 11, 2017 BO -7.83%

Avg (+ or -) 7.21%
Bias -5.56%, strongly negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 19.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 16.45 to 21.55 (+/- 13.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 17.63 to 20.37
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.5%): 15.30 to 22.70
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 20.39

NOTE: 5-day historical maximums are +2.5 and -19.5%. So positive move is LESS and negative move is the same.

Open to requests for other symbols.

#closing #shortputs SPY Bought June…

#closing #shortputs SPY

Bought June 26 260 put for 3.03 , sold May 11 for 4.24. Thanks fuzzball

WHR short puts

Sold to open:
$WHR 6/19 101 puts @ 1.99 (17 delta)
$WHR 6/19 100 puts @ 1.89 (16 delta)
IV rank 42

TQQQ

STO July 17, 40 put at 1.13

STO July 17, 45 put at 1.64

TQQQ

BTC May 22, 40 puts at .01

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX May 18th 2920/2940-2950/2970 condors for 10.50. Bought for 16.80. This was the cheapest one I have purchased, and it’s simply hilarious that when I posted the trade last Monday I said that “probability of profit has dropped.” Sho’nuff!

TRADES:

DNKG STO 5/22/20 29.0 NTM PUTS @1.34
DNKG STO 5/22/20 35.0 CALLS @69
SDGR STO 6/19/20 70.0 CALLS @2.25 semi-covered

OPTION EXPIRATIONS, All 5/15/20

AAL 5/15/20 9.0 puts STO @.51
AAL 11.0 CALLS STO @.21
CCL 14.0 CALLS STO @1.15
CODX 11.0 PUTS STO @.55
CODX 14.0 PUTS STO @1.00
NET 31.0 CALLS STO @.55
NET 32.0 CALLS STO @.30
OSTK 14.0 PUTS STO @.40
OSTK 18.0 CALLS STO @.68
PM 5/15/20 70.0 & 74.0 Long puts STC TODAY.

2@

Earnings Update KSS

KSS is confirmed for tomorrow morning earnings report.

HD earnings analysis

#Earnings $HD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 25, 2020 BO -0.96%
Nov. 19, 2019 BO -5.43% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 20, 2019 BO +4.39% Biggest UP
May 21, 2019 BO +0.26%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO -0.88%
Nov. 13, 2018 BO -0.23%
Aug. 14, 2018 BO -0.53%
May 15, 2018 BO -1.62%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -0.13%
Nov. 14, 2017 BO +1.63%
Aug. 15, 2017 BO -2.65%
May 16, 2017 BO +0.59%

Avg (+ or -) 1.61%
Bias -0.46%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 247.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 232.83 to 261.17 (+/- 5.7%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 243.03 to 250.97
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (5.4%): 233.59 to 260.41
Based on UP max only (+4.4%): 257.84

NOTE: 5-day historical maximums are +4.6 and -9.2%. So positive move is the same but it has moved to the downside further in 5 days versus one day.

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings #jadelizard WMT Sold June…

#earnings #jadelizard WMT

Sold June 19, 116/128/130 jade lizard for 2.09

Bullish UAL

Stock is trading like the bottom may be in. Sold to open $UAL 6/19 20 puts @ 1.59. Delta 26. IV rank 64.

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 18th 2930/2950 call spreads for 14.75. Condors sold for 1.25 on Friday.

Pretty sure this spread will end the day at 20.00, so I’m cutting losose now to avoid full loss. Looking to do the same with the 7dteLong because that one may end the day at 0.00.

AMZN CC called on weekend. New CC this morning. May 22 $2395 for net $2364

#coveredcalls $AMZN

Rolling MMM

Just put this initial trade on Friday and with the big move up I’m rolling $MMM 9/18 100 puts up to 115 puts for 1.42 credit. New strike at 14 delta. Total premium now 3.62.

#shortputs #coveredcalls #rolling HTZ CCL…

#shortputs #coveredcalls #rolling HTZ CCL M SDC SBUX GPS
CCL Sold May 22, 14 put for .45
HTZ sold May 22, covered call for .10
M sold May 22, 5 put for .16
M sold June 19 covered call for .21
SDC sold June 5 covered call for .41
SBUX rolled long suffering May 22 73.50/85 put spread to June 19, 76/87.50 for a lousy .12
GPS Bought 100 shares and sold May 22, 8 call for 7.45

#closing #shortputs XOP WBA XOP…

#closing #shortputs XOP WBA

XOP Bought June 19, 40 put for .61, sold May 15 for 1.14
WBA Bought May 29, 36 put for .16, sold May 15 for .63

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong One hour before open, sold to close $SPX May 20th 2810/2830 call spreads for 18.50. Will try to close put side today on any small push down. Condors sold for 18.30 last Wednesday.

My expirations today, both 7dte and 1dte, are in trouble at the moment. My best hope will be a close below 2920. Otherwise I will be mitigating losses.

SPY

#ShortPuts – Assigned a few shares over the weekend so getting lucky with this move…

Sold SPY MAY 22 2020 295.0 Call @ 2.45