Markets

btfd

SQQQ

Buy Write
Bought 100 SQQQ / Sold 1 SQQQ 07/17/2020 8.50 Covered Call @ 7.27 Net debit.
The all time low on the stock was 7.30 about a week ago.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX June 30th 3105 calls for .50. Talk about blind side… exited this AFTER its run up to 3111. Condors sold yesterday for 1.15

Sold to open $SPX July 1st 3005/3025-3170/3190 condors for 1.20. IV 20.7%, SPX 3105, deltas -.06, +.06.

Closing CODX

Closed diagonal call spread (sold to close 8/21 10 calls + bought to close 7/17 20 calls) @ 7.63. Would think about rolling the short leg out to August but with earnings before opex I decided to just close the position for a nice profit. With a previous roll overall profit 2.68. Adjusted basis after rollout was 4.95.

MSFT BUPS Closed

#bups
$MSFT BTC 7/10 167.50/177.50 BUPS at .10. STO 6/8 at 1.36.

BA BUPS Closed -Badabadabing!

#bups
$BA BTC 7/17/110/120 BUPS at .10. STO 5/29 at 1.77. Thank you @Ramie

FB July Iron Condor

Sold $FB 7/17 200/210//240/250 iron condor @ 2.78. Short term. Slightly bullish (short puts 25∆ short calls 19∆).
Looking for volatility contraction over the next week. IV rank 48.

/GC

Gold Smashes Above $1800 For First Time Since 2011

SPY Ladder unwind

Bought to close 06/30/2020 308.00 Call @ 0.25
Sold to close 07/17/2020 315.00 Call @ 2.42

On 5/22 Bought 07/17/2020 315.00 Call @ 2.20

At the time I sold a 05/29/2020 297.00 Call @ 2.25 which I have rolled and rolled (for a credit each time) until it became today’s 308.00 short call which I sold last Friday for 1.27.

Today I unwound both sides for a gain on both sides.
I’m pretty sure that the July 315.00 long call would have ended up worthless so I’m glad to get out of it.

VXX

New diagonal Put Spread
Bought to open 06/18/2021 9.00 Puts / Sold VXX 07/02/2020 32.50 Puts @ 0.16 Credit.
The short has 2 DTE and can be rolled weekly and the long has 353 DTE

VXX Puts

Sold VXX 07/02/2020 33.00 Puts @ 0.37.
Sold VXX 07/02/2020 32.50 Puts @ 0.32.
I’m more afraid of the call side of my strangles than the put side so I’m overloading the Puts a bit for the remainder of the week.

SPY Roll

Bought to close 1 SPY Jun 30 2020 301 Call @ $3.39
Sold to Open 1 SPY Jul 02 2020 303 Call @ $3.68 for 0.29 Net credit and a 2 point bump in the strike for Thursday.

Still have a 308 call left for today

FDX earnings analysis

#Earnings $FDX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 17, 2020 AC +4.97% Biggest UP
Dec. 17, 2019 AC -10.02%
Sept. 17, 2019 AC -12.91% Biggest DOWN
June 25, 2019 AC +2.52%
March 19, 2019 AC -3.49%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -12.16%
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -5.53%
June 19, 2018 AC -2.69%
March 20, 2018 AC -1.17%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +3.51%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC +2.08%
June 20, 2017 AC +1.60%

Avg (+ or -) 5.22%
Bias -2.77%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 136.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 126.33 to 145.67 (+/- 7.1%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 128.90 to 143.10
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 118.44 to 153.56
Based on UP max only (+5.0%): 142.76

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPY

New Diagonal Spread
Sold to open 1 SPY Jul 01 2020 304 Call at $2.70 while buying 1 SPY Sep 18 2020 335 Call at $2.44.
With a 0.26 initial credit, the hope is to pick up another long term call to write against for the next few months, for free.
SPY closed at 304.46 today.
The short is only 2 DTE but the long is 81 DTE
#SPYLadder

TRADES:

SDGR STO 7/17/20 85.0 CALL @6.80
SDGR STO 7/17/20 90.0 CALL @4.60 I find I can always roll up and out for 5 strikes and a 1-2 point credit.

VXX Puts

Re-establishing my Put diagonals against my 2021 and 2022 long puts
Sold VXX 07/02/2020 33.0 Puts @ 0.34
Sold VXX 07/02/2020 32.50 Puts @ 0.22

Last SPY roll

Bought to close 1 SPY 06/29/2020 303.00 Call / Sold 1 SPY 07/01/2020 305.00 Call @ 1.27 credit plus a 2 point bump in the short strike for only 2 more days.
Rolled to avoid possible assignment on today’s short call as the stock right at 303.00 5 minutes before the close.
#SPYLadder

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 6th 3015/3035-3045/3065 condors for 18.05, with SPX at 3043
Expiring: June 29th 3100/3080 put spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 18.05.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 30th 2935/2955-3105/3125 condors for 1.15, IV 22.1%, SPX 3042, deltas: -.06, +.06
Expiring: June 29th 2870/2890-3100/3120 condors, sold Friday for 1.20

SQ Call

#coveredcalls
$SQ STO 7/2 106 call at $1.00

SPY roll

Bought to close 1 SPY 06/29/2020 302.00 Call / Sold 1 SPY 07/06/2020 307.00 Call @ 1.07 credit plus a BIG 5 point bump in the short strike.
Rolled to avoid possible assignment on today’s short call.

SPY is 303 at the moment
#SPYLadder

MU earnings analysis

#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 25, 2020 AC +5.38%
Dec. 18, 2019 AC +2.80%
Sept. 26, 2019 AC -11.09% Biggest DOWN
June 25, 2019 AC +13.34% Biggest UP
March 20, 2019 AC +9.61%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%

Avg (+ or -) 6.62%
Bias 0.79%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 48.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 45.14 to 51.86 (+/- 5.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 45.29 to 51.71
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 42.03 to 54.97
Based on DOWN max only (-11.1%): 43.12

NOTE: 5-day MAX moves are -12.96% and +18.08%

Open to requests for other symbols.

A TRADE:

SWBI BTO STOCK @19.87

SPY roll

Bought to close 1 SPY 06/29/2020 309.00 Call @ 0.01.
Sold this against 1 SPY 09/18/2020 333.0 Call last Monday @ 5.47.
Sold 1 SPY 07/02/2020 309.00 Call @ 1.07 to replace it.

SPY is 302 at the moment

TQQQ

I am out of all my positions in TQQQ. The moving averages have turned down and even if the FED is buying bonds, the earnings for most corporations just will not be there. I am not going to fight the FED but, if there are no earnings, the stock market is over valued IMHO. I am sitting mostly on cash.

Econ Calendar for week of 6/29/20

#FOMC Jerome Powell speaks Tuesday 12:30pm ET
#Jobs Report is THURSDAY at 8:30am ET

Screen Shot 2020-06-29 at 7.07.28 AM
Screen Shot 2020-06-29 at 7.07.28 AM

Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

SQQQ

Sold SQQQ 07/02/2020 9.50 Covered Calls @ 0.10
Sold SQQQ 07/02/2020 9.00 Covered Calls @ 0.15

#coveredcalls CODX Bought 100 shares…

#coveredcalls CODX

Bought 100 shares @17.35, sold a July 2, 17 call for 1.10, debit of 16.25

AAL WBA Covered Calls

Sold 1 WBA 07/02/2020 42.0 Covered Call @ 0.55
Sold 1 AAL 07/02/2020 13.0 Covered Call @ 0.54.
These replace similar positions that expired Friday.

Markets

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/triple-threat-3-major-risks-markets-are-not-pricing-yet

island-reversal-6.26.20-3

Shark Investing

Anyone familiar with this place?

https://sharkinvesting.com/

EWZ DiagBFly

#DiagonalButterfly

BTC 1 EWZ June 26: 30 short straddle @ $1.91 (originally sold for $1.79)
STO 1 EWZ July 02: 28 straddle @ $1.89

The short straddle is covered by a long EWZ Sep 18: 24 put / 30 call strangle.

This setup appears to be pretty forgiving. One side always expires worthless, so I just buyback the side that is ITM. Let the OTM side expire worthless. Then re-establish a new weekly straddle.

Only problem is that the trade is so boring one starts to lose interest quickly. Long Live Boring!

Expirations

These expired pretty close to the money. As of a few days ago seemed relatively safe but watched them through today’s close:
$UVXY 6/26 39/49 bear call spread
$UVXY 6/26 40/50 bear call spread
$UVXY 6/26 41/46 bear call spread

Expirations

Just two this week:

OX – $LULU Jun-26-2020 265/275 #BuPS – as STO @1.65.
OX – $AAL Jun-26-2020 $19 #CoveredCalls – was STO @0.44.

Happy weekend all!

Options Expiration

#OptionsExpiration – I had one! 🙂 🙂

UVXY 30 Puts (sold for 1.60)

Expiration

#optionsexpiration
$ROKU 116 call Stock called away after months and months of rolling.
$ROKU 114 call Stock called away after months and months of rolling. Net loss overall but thanks to rolling a manageable one.
TQQQ 110 call
SQ 88 put
$ROKU 110 Put

Options Expiration

The market must be down on the week if all these are expiring today. Last week, almost nothing was expiring and everything needed to be rolled.

Expired:
AAL 06/26/2020 12.50 Covered Call
ADS 06/26/2020 50.00 Covered Call
ADS 06/26/2020 52.50 Covered Calls
KSS 06/26/2020 19.50 Covered Calls
KSS 06/26/2020 20.00 Diagonal Calls
KSS 06/26/2020 23.00 Diagonal Calls
SLB 06/26/2020 18.00 Covered Calls
SLB 06/26/2020 18.50 Covered Calls
SLB 06/26/2020 20.50 Diagonal Calls
SLB 06/26/2020 21.00 Diagonal Calls
SQQQ 06/26/2020 9.00 Covered Calls
SQQQ 06/26/2020 10.00 Covered Call
WBA 06/26/2020 42.00 Covered Call
WFC 06/26/2020 28.00 Covered Calls
WFC 06/26/2020 28.50 Covered Calls
WFC 06/26/2020 29.00 Diagonal Calls
WFC 06/26/2020 30.00 Diagonal Calls

VXX 06/26/2020 32.00 Diagonal Puts
VXX 06/26/2020 32.50 Diagonal Puts
VXX 06/26/2020 33.00 Diagonal Put
VXX 06/26/2020 34.00 Diagonal Puts

Assignments:
NONE

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 29th 2870/2890-3100/3120 condors for 1.20, IV 21.4%, SPX 3013, deltas: -.05, +.05.

Expiring: June 26th 2965/2985-3150/3170 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.

VXX puts

Sold VXX 07/02/2020 32.0 Puts @ 0.34 replacing similar options about to expire.

VXX one last roll

Bought to close VXX 06/26/2020 36.50 Diagonal Calls / Sold VXX 07/02/2020 41.00 Diagonal Calls @ 0.52 Credit plus and extra 4.50 improvement in the short strike price.
Sold the 36.50 Calls @ 1.63 and covered them @ 1.00 although they looked like they might expire early this morning.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 2nd 2985/3005-3015/3035 condor for 18.35, with SPX at 3010.

VIAC Roll

One of the few stock positions with options that needing rolling:
Bought to close VIAC 06/26/2020 20.0 Covered Calls / Sold 07/02/2020 20.0 Covered Calls @ 0.18 Credit
Bought to close VIAC 06/26/2020 22.0 Diagonal Calls / Sold 07/02/2020 23.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.27 Credit plus an extra point on the short strike.
Shortened trading week next week.

TQQQ

BTC July 10, 45 puts at .15, sold at .60

BTC July 17, 50 puts at .42, sold at .61

BTC July 17, 45 puts at .29, sold ay 1.58

BTC July 17, 40 putsa t.20, sold at 1.13

BTC July 17, 35 puts at .13, sold at 1.36

The charts are not looking good and the virus cases are not under control so this could get worse over the weekend. In WW2, we lost 416,800 servicemen in almost 4 years. So far we have lost 124,393 people to the virus in 6 months. We only have 292,507 to go and we will exceeded WW2.

LABU

#ShortPuts – Adding one to an earlier starter position…

Sold LABU JUL 10 2020 47.5 Put @ 2.17

TRADE:

AMRC BTO STOCK @26.77 & 27.50

SPY

6/26/20….Purchased SPY stock at 301.00…..STO 8/7/20 305 Call at 10.25…..BTO 7/17/20 280 Put at 3.10…
#coveredcalls #suecollar

PFE MRVL CCL Put Rolled / SQ Put

#shortputs
$PFE BTC 6/26 32.50 and STO 7/2 32.50 put at added .30 credit
$MRVL BTC 6/26 34 and STO 7/2 33.50 put at added .35 credit
$CCL BTC 6/26 21 and STO 7/2 21 put at added .10 credit
SQ STO 7/2 97 put at .85

SPY Diagonal Rollup

Bought to close 1 SPY 06/26/2020 307.0 Call / Sold 1 06/30/2020 308.0 Call @ 1.12 Credit Plus a point higher strike.
Potentially a $200 better result with 2 trading days until expiration.

PS: The SPY has contracts coming due each day next week because of the Quarterly expiration on 6/30 and the normal Friday expiration pushed to Thursday because of the July 4th Holiday.

TRADES:

WFC STO 7/2/20 24.5 PUTS @.46
APT STO 7/2/20 21.50 CALLS @.90

#putratiospread #ironcondor #rolling KRE JPM…

#putratiospread #ironcondor #rolling KRE JPM OXY VIAC

KRE sold Aug. 21, 32/32/35 ratio put spread for .58
JPM sold Aug. 21, 80/85/110/115 iron condor for 2.06
#tastytradefollow
OXY rolled July 17, 30 put to August 17, 30 put for .20, I’ve had it since March 4, going to have it for a while longer.
VIAC rolled July 17, 25 put to August 21 for .87

SPY Diagonal Rollup

Bought to close 1 SPY 06/26/2020 301.0 Call / Sold 1 06/29/2020 302.0 Call @ 1.02 Credit Plus a point higher strike.
Potentially a $200 better result with ONLY ONE ADDITIONAL DAY until the new expiration.

NVDA

#ShortPuts – Well outside the expected move and below the 50ma and a month before earnings.

Sold NVDA JUL 17 2020 330.0 Put @ 3.55

A TRADE:

AMRC BTO STOCK 26.77

VXX Diagonal rolls

Bought to close 06/26/2020 46.0 Calls / Sold 07/02/2020 46.0 Calls @ 0.55 Credit.
Sold this week’s 46.0 Calls @ 0.84 and 0.89 last Friday.

Bought to close 06/26/2020 40.5 Calls / Sold 07/02/2020 44.0 Calls @ 0.69 Credit Plus a 3.50 higher short strike.
Sold this week’s 40.50 Calls @ 1.69 last Friday

Bought to close 06/26/2020 39.0 Calls / Sold 07/02/2020 42.0 Calls @ 0.89 Credit Plus a 3.0 higher short strike.
Sold this week’s 39.0 Calls @ 1.39 last Friday

ROKU Put Closed

#shortputs
$ROKU BTC 6/26 110 put at .05. STO on 6/17 for 2.48. Thank you @fuzzballl

STMP TNA UVXY

#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – A few today…

STMP: Doing this as a live demo for a buddy who’s learning option trading. He picked the stock and strike then I adjusted down a little for extra safety. Two weeks before earnings on this one.
Sold STMP JUL 17 2020 150.0 Put @ 3.53

TNA: Rolling out and down.
Rolled TNA JUN 26 2020 28.5 Puts to JUL 02 2020 27.5 Puts @ even (1.70 total credit so far)

UVXY: This week’s short puts look good. Covered calls DITM so wouldn’t mind a pullback here. Come and get these Mr. Market.
Sold UVXY JUL 10 2020 30.0 Puts @ 2.28

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 26th 2965/2985-3150/3170 condors for 1.30, IV 25%, SPX 3078, deltas -.06, +.06.

#shortputs DKNG Sold July 17,…

#shortputs DKNG #coveredcalls

DKNG Sold July 17, 30 put for 1.23.
#tastytradefollow

KSS bought 100 shares @ 19.77, sold July 2, 19 call for 1.42, debit of 18.35

KSS – rolling diagonal calls

Bought to close KSS 06/26/2020 19.50 Calls / Sold KSS 07/02/2020 20.50 Calls @ 0.10 Credit plus an extra point on the strike price.

LULU

STO $LULU 2020-07-10 260/270 #BuPS @1.20
Holding $LULU 2020-06-26 265/275 #BuPS intending to let it expire tomorrow.
Also Holding $LULU 2020-07-02 270/280 #BuPS. With LULU under 300, keeping a close eye here. Delta on the short option is ~20.

NKE earnings analysis

#Earnings $NKE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 24, 2020 AC +9.23%
Dec. 19, 2019 AC -1.17%
Sept. 24, 2019 AC +4.16%
June 27, 2019 AC +0.34%
March 21, 2019 AC -6.61% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%

Avg (+ or -) 4.71%
Bias 2.50%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 100.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 94.59 to 105.41 (+/- 5.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 95.29 to 104.71
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 88.88 to 111.12
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 93.39

Open to requests for other symbols.

TQQQ

In my IRA, BTC July 2, 40 puts at .02, sold at .51

In the trading account, BTC July 2, 40 puts at .02, sold at .60

I just want to free up some margin in case the virus gets even worse.I think it will have an impact on earnings and the FED cannot do much about that.

AMD

Rolled $AMD Jun-26-2020 45 #ShortPuts // Jul-17-2020 54 #ShortPuts @0.45 Credit.

Going a little farther out and bringing the strike down $1. Still would take the stock, if assigned.

CAT Nov

Sold $CAT 11/20 80 puts @ 1.85 with the stock at 122.16. Strike price would be at a 4 year low.
#FallingKnife

XLV

The ETF looks weak on the chart and if it breaks the 200 dma, it could drop a lot, so I bought the July 17, 95/85 bear put spread for 1.35

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold $SPX June 26th 3110/3090 put spreads for 13.70. Using the dip to sell put side, looking for a bounce tomorrow and Friday to sell the call side. Condors bought for 18.15 on Friday.

LK

LK is up today-go figure

UVXY August

Sold $UVXY 8/21 55/65 bear call spread @ 1.33

TQQQ

BTC June 26, 50 puts at .01, Sold at 1.01

That is all for this week.

SPY

#ShortPuts – Added in a different account…

Sold SPY AUG 21 2020 250.0 Put @ 3.13

TQQQ

#ShortPuts – Starter position here. Thanks @jsd501 .

Sold TQQQ AUG 21 2020 50.0 Put @ 1.72

SPY

#ShortPuts – Well outside the expected move and below all the major moving averages.

Sold SPY AUG 21 2020 260.0 Put @ 3.43

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX June 24th 3055/3035 put spreads for 2.00. Condors sold for 1.40 yesterday. Expected-move stop was hit at 3084.

VXX New diagonal Spread

Bought 1 07/31/2020 60.0 Call / Sold 1 VXX 06/26/2020 36.50 Call @ 0.04 Credit.
This is similar to the spread I put on yesterday except that the long side call strike is 5 points lower.

My short calls and short puts for this week are now balanced out.
Fidelity calls these positions ” Short Calendar Iron Condor Spreads”

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dtelong Sold to close $SPX June 24th 3110/3090 put spreads for 6.90. Betting on a recovery by the close so I can sell the call 3120/3140 call spread at least partially ITM. Condors bought for 18.40 last Wednesday.

MYL AMZN and others

The coronavirus pandemic has hit the already-struggling sector particularly hard.
Some big names have gone bust recently, including Neiman Marcus , J.Crew, and J.C. Penney . Meanwhile, Amazon and other retailers with a large online presence are among the most-obvious winners of the coronavirus crisis.
The wave of bricks-and-mortar bankruptcies has some speculating that Amazon could be interested in scooping up a traditional retailer on the cheap, given its large cash hoard and willingness to take risk.
And it wouldn’t be the first time. Amazon bought Whole Foods Market back in 2017. That deal gave it a refrigerated distribution chain and positioning in attractive market areas.
A department-store acquisition could give Amazon a physical presence closer to more customers and relationships with large branded apparel companies.

Mylan’s Price-to-Earnings Ratio Is 3.7
It makes it the cheapest stock in the S & P 500 relative to its projected 2020 earnings.
Mylan is a large generic and off-patent drug company, and it is about to get much bigger. Later this summer, it is set to merge with Pfizer’s generic drug business, called Upjohn.
But investors are clearly pessimistic about the backdrop for generic drugs in the U.S., and don’t give Mylan shares much credit for its growing portfolio.
Other particularly cheap stocks in the S & P 500 include insurers Prudential Financial , MetLife , and Lincoln National . Old-school media companies ViacomCBS and Discovery also make the top 10.