SPX (no) trades

#SPX7dteLong Missed my chance for small profit yesterday and instead sold to close $SPX June 12th 3200/3220 call spreads this morning for 1.20. Bought for 9.30 last Friday. As I commented then, throwing in the towel on the relentless bull run probably would mark the top.

I am skipping the #SPX1dte for tomorrow. Premium is not high enough for the risk.

VXX Puts

Bought to close 50% of my VXX 06/12/2020 30.5 Puts @ 0.01.
Sold these last week at an average cost of 2.17.

Now it looks like I’ll have to roll all my short calls instead.

TQQQ

STO July 10, 45 puts at .60 cents, small trade though.

LULU earnings analysis

#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 26, 2020 AC -5.95%
Dec. 11, 2019 AC -3.73%
Sept. 5, 2019 AC +7.81%
June 12, 2019 AC +2.12%
March 27, 2019 AC +14.12%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC +11.54%

Avg (+ or -) 9.24%
Bias 5.40%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 311.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 288.00 to 334.00 (+/- 7.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 282.27 to 339.73
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.3%): 260.28 to 361.72
Based on DOWN max only (-13.4%): 269.45

Open to requests for other symbols.

WHR long term

Sold $WHR 12/18 60 puts @ 1.75 with the stock at 127.12.
#FallingKnife

VXX new diagonal Call spread

Bought to open 1 VXX 09/18/2020 80.0 Call / Sold 1 VXX 06/12/2020 36.0 Call @ 0.14 Credit.
If this market flattens out after this 1300 point drop in the DJIA I should have a free September long position.

If the market continues to fall, I’ll roll the short up and out a week.

WFC rollups

Bought to close 1 WFC 06/12/2020 27.0 Covered Call / Sold 1 WFC 06/19/2020 27.50 Covered Call @ 0.34 Credit plus a 0.50 higher strike price.
Bought to close WFC 06/12/2020 27.5 Covered Calls / Sold WFC 06/19/2020 28.50 Covered Calls @ 0.20 Credit plus a 1.00 higher strike price.

ADS Rollup

Bought to close 1 ADS 06/12/2020 46.0 Covered Call / Sold 1 ADS 06/19/2020 47.0 Covered Call @ 0.90 Credit plus a one point higher strike price.

Hard to believe this stock was above 66 on Monday

TQQQ

In my IRA, STO September 40 puts at 1.70

UAL roll

From $UAL 6/19 40/60 short strangle, rolled the 60 calls down to 42 calls (21 delta) for .70 credit. Total premium now 3.23 so breakeven on the downside is 36.77. Stock currently trading around 35.

CINF early roll

Bought to close CINF 06/19/2020 60.0 Covered Calls / Sold 07/17/2020 60.0 Covered Calls @ 1.90 Credit.

LULU Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizards – Going with the Lizard for next week. Playing it to the downside as usual. Breakeven at about twice the expected move with no upside risk.

Sold LULU JUN 19 2020 285.0/310.0/315.0 Jade Lizard @ 6.00

XLE XLF

2 Back Ratio’s STC today
XLE -47 Call/+2 49.21 STC .01 Bought 6-8 for 0.15 Cr Net 9.00
XLF -26 Put / + 2- 25 Puts STC 0.35 Cr Bought 6-9 0.06 Cr Net 37.00

SPY

#ShortPuts – Gradually easing back in…

Sold SPY JUL 17 2020 275.0 Put @ 2.85
Sold SPY JUL 17 2020 280.0 Put @ 3.35

UAL

STC 44/42 Jun 19 Put spread $1.79 Bought 6-5 for 1.05

TQQQ

BTC June 19, 35 puts at .01, sold at 2.04

SLB Rollup

Bought to close SLB 06/12/2020 19.00 Calls / Sold SLB 06/19/2020 19.50 Calls @ 0.20 Credit plus 0.50 higher strike.

SPY Ladder Roll – a day early

Bought to close SPY 06/12/2020 299.0 Call / Sold SPY 06/19/2020 300.0 Call @ 0.38 Credit to avoid assignment on tomorrow’s short call.
The initial spike down allowed me to bump the short strike a point too.

Edit: I was way too early. SPY dropped another 7 points after the opening gap down.
Oh well. I’ll make it up next week with 3 expiration dates.

#SPYLadder

ADBE earnings analysis

#Earnings $ADBE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 12, 2020 AC +17.71% Biggest UP
Dec. 12, 2019 AC +3.91%
Sept. 17, 2019 AC -1.74%
June 18, 2019 AC +5.21%
March 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -7.28% Buggest DOWN
Sept. 13, 2018 AC +2.29%
June 14, 2018 AC -2.43%
March 15, 2018 AC +3.05%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +1.43%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -4.24%
June 20, 2017 AC +2.36%

Avg (+ or -) 4.63%
Bias 1.36%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 400.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 382.20 to 417.80 (+/- 4.5%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 381.47 to 418.53
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.7%): 329.16 to 470.84
Based on DOWN max only (-7.3%): 370.88

Open to requests for other symbols.