SPY

New Diagonal Spread
Sold to open 1 SPY Jul 01 2020 304 Call at $2.70 while buying 1 SPY Sep 18 2020 335 Call at $2.44.
With a 0.26 initial credit, the hope is to pick up another long term call to write against for the next few months, for free.
SPY closed at 304.46 today.
The short is only 2 DTE but the long is 81 DTE
#SPYLadder

TRADES:

SDGR STO 7/17/20 85.0 CALL @6.80
SDGR STO 7/17/20 90.0 CALL @4.60 I find I can always roll up and out for 5 strikes and a 1-2 point credit.

VXX Puts

Re-establishing my Put diagonals against my 2021 and 2022 long puts
Sold VXX 07/02/2020 33.0 Puts @ 0.34
Sold VXX 07/02/2020 32.50 Puts @ 0.22

Last SPY roll

Bought to close 1 SPY 06/29/2020 303.00 Call / Sold 1 SPY 07/01/2020 305.00 Call @ 1.27 credit plus a 2 point bump in the short strike for only 2 more days.
Rolled to avoid possible assignment on today’s short call as the stock right at 303.00 5 minutes before the close.
#SPYLadder

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 6th 3015/3035-3045/3065 condors for 18.05, with SPX at 3043
Expiring: June 29th 3100/3080 put spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 18.05.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 30th 2935/2955-3105/3125 condors for 1.15, IV 22.1%, SPX 3042, deltas: -.06, +.06
Expiring: June 29th 2870/2890-3100/3120 condors, sold Friday for 1.20

SQ Call

#coveredcalls
$SQ STO 7/2 106 call at $1.00

SPY roll

Bought to close 1 SPY 06/29/2020 302.00 Call / Sold 1 SPY 07/06/2020 307.00 Call @ 1.07 credit plus a BIG 5 point bump in the short strike.
Rolled to avoid possible assignment on today’s short call.

SPY is 303 at the moment
#SPYLadder

MU earnings analysis

#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

March 25, 2020 AC +5.38%
Dec. 18, 2019 AC +2.80%
Sept. 26, 2019 AC -11.09% Biggest DOWN
June 25, 2019 AC +13.34% Biggest UP
March 20, 2019 AC +9.61%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%

Avg (+ or -) 6.62%
Bias 0.79%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 48.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 45.14 to 51.86 (+/- 5.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 45.29 to 51.71
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 42.03 to 54.97
Based on DOWN max only (-11.1%): 43.12

NOTE: 5-day MAX moves are -12.96% and +18.08%

Open to requests for other symbols.

A TRADE:

SWBI BTO STOCK @19.87

SPY roll

Bought to close 1 SPY 06/29/2020 309.00 Call @ 0.01.
Sold this against 1 SPY 09/18/2020 333.0 Call last Monday @ 5.47.
Sold 1 SPY 07/02/2020 309.00 Call @ 1.07 to replace it.

SPY is 302 at the moment