SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte I didn’t place a trade for Monday. I was actually trying to place another bullish #Risk Reversal but couldn’t get filled before time ran out.

Expiring: $SPX June 10th 3055/3075-3215/3235 condors, sold yesterday for 1.40.

#SPX7dteLong Expiring at full 20.00 credit: June 10th 3155/3175 calls spread. Condors bought for 17.00 on June 2nd. Closed today for 20.50, total credit.

Expiration

#optionsexpiration
$LABU 47.5 put Thank you @fuzzballl
$SQ 124 put
$SQ 113 put Thank you @fuzzballl
$MRVL 34.5 put
$PFE 34.5 calls

OptionsExpiration

Expired:
ADS 07/10/2020 50.00 Covered Call
SLB 07/10/2020 20.00 Covered Calls
VIAC 07/10/2020 24.00 Diagonal Calls
VXX 07/10/2020 38.0 Diagonal Call
VXX 07/10/2020 40.0 Diagonal Calls

VXX 07/10/2020 30.50 Diagonal Puts
VXX 07/10/2020 30.00 Diagonal Puts
VXX 07/10/2020 29.00 Diagonal Puts

Assigned:
GLW 07/10/2020 22.50 Covered Call

Expirations

OX $SLB 19 #CoveredCallS. Replaced yesterday with $18.5 @0.25 for next week.
OX $SPX 3065/3075/3215/3225 #IronCondor. Sold yesterday @0.75. (thanks Jeff)

KSS Roll

Bought to close KSS 07/10/2020 21.0 Diagonal Calls / Sold KSS 07/17/2020 22.50 Diagonal Calls @ 0.32 Credit plus an extra 1.50 on the strike price.

KSS is @ 21.12 five minutes before the close

LABU

#ShortPuts – Sold LABU AUG 7 2020 40.0 Puts @ 1.05

MU

I unwound the spread I put on yesterday for a .15 cent profit because I was just not comfortable with the trade. BTC the August 65 call and sold the 2022 60 calls.

VXX and SPY Roll

Filled on orders to sell VXX 07/17/2020 31.5 Puts @ 0.88 and VXX 07/17/2020 31.0 Puts @ 0.66.

That was my signal to give up waiting and roll my last SPY Call for today.
Bought to close 1 SPY 07/10/2020 304.0 Call / Sold 1 SPY 07/20/2020 305.0 Call @ 0.14 Credit plus another point higher on the strike.
SPY @ 317.34 when I rolled.

KSS Covered Roll

Bought to close KSS 07/10/2020 20.50 Covered Calls / Sold KSS 07/17/2020 21.0 Covered Calls / 0.53 Credit plus an extra 0.50 on the strike price.

KSS is @ 20.88

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 17th 3150/3170-3180/3200 condors for 17.25, with SPX at 3177.

UVXY

#ShortPuts – Was going to let this one run the distance but playing it safe since I’ve already sold next week…

Bought to Close UVXY JUL 10 2020 30.0 Puts @ .08 (sold for 2.28)

SPY

#ShortPuts – Taking well over half with 6 weeks to go…

Bought to Close SPY AUG 21 2020 260.0 Put @ 1.15 (sold for 3.43)

TSLA

#CrazyTown again

TSLA Rockets Higher Again As ‘Someone’ Panic-Buys Massively OTM Call Options
The question is – who is buying these lottery tickets in size and who in the world benefits most from the TSLA share price being at these incredibly elevated levels?

2020-07-10_10-42-22

Econ Calendar for week of 7/13/20

Screen Shot 2020-07-10 at 10.48.51 AM
Screen Shot 2020-07-10 at 10.48.51 AM

Link to Calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

VXX Puts

Sold VXX 07/17/2020 31.50 Puts @ 0.76
Sold VXX 07/17/2020 31.0 Puts @ 0.55
Sold VXX 07/17/2020 30.50 Puts @ 0.41
Partially replacing the 31.50 Puts for this week that I covered for a penny this morning.
#DoubleDip

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX June 10th 3145/3125 put spreads for .50. I have no choice now but to rely on the call side for profit, so dumping the put side. Need a close above 3175 for max profit.

SPY Roll

Bought to close 1 SPY 07/10/2020 312.0 Call / Sold 1 SPY 07/13/2020 313.0 Call @ 0.15 Credit plus an extra point higher on the strike for just one more trading day.
SPY at 315.36.
#SPYLadder

Markets

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/07/you-are-now-leaving-fantasyland-losses.html

“As the inverted pyramid collapses, the effects will be non-linear: a 10% decline may trigger dominoes that end up generating an 90% decline in “value” and “wealth” because the collapse of collateral to a non-fantasy valuation will implode all the phantom valuations piled on steadily more fragile and fantastic layers of phantom “capital.”
The fantasy of the Neofeudal Aristocracy is that the losses can be painlessly transferred to the debt-serfs and taxpaying peasantry. Mommy and Daddy (Treasury and Fed) will load future generations of debt-serfs and taxpaying peasantry with the losses and the political-financial Nobility will have their fortunes preserved. Gee, thanks, Mommy and Daddy! You’re swell!
The Neofeudal Aristocracy overlooks one terribly inconvenient fact: the debt-serfs and peasantry own next to nothing. The non-linear collapse of phantom capital will have asymmetric consequences: all the “assets” most likely to go to zero are owned not by the peasantry but by the Neofeudal Aristocracy.”

cartoon-value_4

TNA UVXY VXX

#ShortPuts – Rolling and adding…

TNA: Still rolling and adding credit
Rolled TNA JUL 10 2020 27.5 Puts to JUL 24 2020 26.0 Puts @ .30 credit (3.15 total now)

UVXY: Adding
Sold UVXY JUL 17 2020 29.0 Puts @ .90
Sold UVXY JUL 17 2020 28.5 Puts @ .70

VXX: Adding
Sold VXX JUL 17 2020 31.5 Puts @ .60

VXX Puts

Bought to close 07/10/2020 31.50 Puts @ 0.01.

Rolled the 07/02/2020 33.0 Puts down to these at a 0.26 Credit last Friday.
They were written against VXX 2021 and 2022 long puts.

I also have 29, 30, and 30.50 short Puts and 38 and 40 short Calls expiring today.

WBA Diagonal Credit Spread unwind

On Wednesday, before #Earnings, I sold to open WBA Jul 10 2020 40.00 Puts @ $0.43 / Bought WBA Jul 17 2020 30.00 Puts @ $0.02 for a 0.41 net credit.
Today I Closed Out the Spread for a 0.40 Debit for a virtual break even.
Given that the stock dropped to 38.05 on Thursday and started below 38.60 this morning, I count this as a victory.

At least I got to add stock yesterday below 39.

VIAC Covered Roll

Bought to close VIAC 07/10/2020 20.0 Covered Calls / Sold VIAC 07/17/2020 20.0 Covered Calls @ 0.11 Credit.
The options are too far ITM to roll up with the stock at 22.49.
A pullback to about 21 by next Friday would help with that.
#Earnings not until 08/06

PFE Put Rolled

#shortputs
$PFE BTC 7/10 34 put and STO 7/17 34 put at .36 added credit

KSS Roll

Bought to close KSS 07/10/2020 22.0 Diagonal Calls / Sold KSS 07/17/2020 23.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.27 Credit plus an extra point on the short strike.
The stock is at 20.60 with no #Earnings next week.

AAL Covered Roll

Bought to close 1 AAL 07/10/2020 13.50 Covered Call / Sold 1 AAL 07/17/2020 Covered Call @ 0.17 Credit with the stock at 11.35

WBA Covered Roll

Bought to close WBA 07/10/2020 42.50 Covered Call / Sold WBA 07/17/2020 41.0 Covered Call @ 0.32 Credit
With the stock around 39.0 after the earnings drop I’m expecting this one won’t be threatened next week.

However, my average stock cost is below 40, so whatever 🙂

PEP earnings analysis

#Earnings $PEP reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters, to indicate how PEP may move into next Friday’s expiration.

Tue 04/28/2020 BO -3.21%
Thu 02/13/2020 BO +0.62%
Thu 10/03/2019 BO +3.29%
Tue 07/09/2019 BO +0.54%
Wed 04/17/2019 BO +3.82%
Fri 02/15/2019 BO +2.97%
Tue 10/02/2018 BO -3.81% Biggest DOWN
Tue 07/10/2018 BO +4.57% Biggest UP
Thu 04/26/2018 BO -0.21%
Tue 02/13/2018 BO -0.78%
Wed 10/04/2017 BO +1.16%
Tue 07/11/2017 BO +0.57%

Avg (+ or -) 2.13%
Bias 0.79%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 32.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday 7/17 per TOS): 126.73 to 137.27 (+/- 4.0%)
Based on AVERAGE five-day move over last 12 quarters: 129.19 to 134.81
Based on MAXIMUM five-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.6%): 125.97 to 138.03
Based on DOWN max only (-3.8%): 126.97

Open to requests for other symbols.

WFC Covered Calls

Sold 1 WFC 07/17/2020 28.50 Covered Call @ 0.17
Sold 2 WFC 07/17/2020 29.00 Covered Calls @ 0.15.
Sold 2 WFC 07/17/2020 29.50 Diagonal Calls @ 0.11.
With the stock at 24.50, the only reason the premiums are this high is that #Earnings are BMO on 07/14/2020