PYPL Earnings

#putratiospread
#brokenwingbutterfly

Jul 31
177.5/175 put ratio, 2×4 1.65 cr
172.5/167.5/165 BWB downside hedge .58 debit qty 2
breakeven $166.93, approx 12 delta

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX Aug 5th 3235/3255-3265/3285 condors for 16.85. with SPX at 3259.

LRCX Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizards – I’m calling this a Jade Lizard because it’s fun but adding a disaster put turning it into some sort of an unbalanced iron condor. Still no upside risk and playing for a down move of half to one and a half times the expected move.

Sold LRCX JUL 31 2020 300.0/335.0/350.0/355.0 Jade Condor @ 5.10

SHOP fading the gap up

Stock has been fading from its morning post-earnings gap up, all day. Sold $SHOP 8/21 1120/1140 bear call spread @ 5.00. Short calls above today’s high. With IV low and the the short calls closer than I usually sell (34 delta), this trade has a higher than usual directional component (i.e., looking for further down movement rather than waiting for volatility to contract). Heads up, this is another underlying with less than ideal liquidity.

NVDA

#ShortPuts – Taking it off a week early…

Bought to Close NVDA AUG 07 2020 350.0 Put @ .16 (sold for 4.49)

TRADES:

THC BTO STOCK @26.92 Reports Earn Monday

LABU

#ShortPuts – Adding…

Sold LABU AUG 21 2020 40.0 Puts @ 1.39

NOW trade this

#Earnings Sold to Open $NOW July 31st 425/420 put spreads for 1.40, with stock at 441.00. Short strike is at the max negative move.

NOW earnings analysis

#Earnings $NOW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Overwhelmingly positive response on earnings…

April 29, 2020 AC +9.17%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC +9.16%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +8.07%
July 24, 2019 AC -3.86% the only DOWN move since Jan 2016
April 24, 2019 AC +7.41%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +13.41% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +1.42%
July 25, 2018 AC +4.60%
April 25, 2018 AC +4.53%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +2.64%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +1.21%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.74%

Avg (+ or -) 5.52%
Bias 4.88%, overwhelmingly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 443.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 417.67 to 468.33 (+/- 5.7%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 418.55 to 467.45
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.4%): 383.59 to 502.41
Based on DOWN max only (-3.9%): 425.90

Open to requests for other symbols.

DVA earnings analysis (for tomorrow)

#Earnings $DVA reports THURSDAY after the bell. By request, here are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 5, 2020 AC +4.41%
Feb. 10, 2020 AC +6.94%
Nov. 5, 2019 AC +12.92% Biggest UP
Aug. 1, 2019 AC +1.28%
May 7, 2019 AC -8.55%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC +0.29%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -7.79%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +5.34%
May 3, 2018 AC +4.86%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +1.64%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -7.83%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC -8.84% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 5.89%
Bias 0.39%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 90.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 85.35 to 94.65 (+/- 5.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 84.70 to 95.30
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 78.37 to 101.63
Based on DOWN max only (-8.8%): 82.04

Open to requests for other symbols.

DOCU adjustment

Rolled $DOCU 160/150 bull put spread up to 185/175 for 1.26 credit. Part of an iron condor with 220/230 bear call spread. Originally sold the iron condor for 3.69 on 7/15. With this credit, total premium taken in now 4.95.

KODK

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kodak-halted-9-times-stock-explodes-higher-amid-flood-retail-buying

Waiting for Weekly options before partaking 🙂

SPOT put spread

Sold $SPOT 8/21 240/230 bull put spread @ 2.25. Still high IV post-earnings (IVR 48). Short puts 25 delta. Caution: liquidity not great for most options on this underlying.

KHC Strangle / NVAX Roll Call / NVDA Put Closed

#shortstrangles
$KHC STO 7/31 34/37 strangle at .86 Thank you @honkhonk81

#coveredcalls
$NVAX BTC 7/31 145 call and STO 8/7 145 call at added $14 credit. Stock at 146

#shortputs
$NVDA BTC 8/7 350 put at .30. STO on 7/6 at 4.40. Thank you @fuzzballl

QCOM earnings analysis

#Earnings $QCOM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 29, 2020 AC -0.37%
Feb. 5, 2020 AC -0.32%
Nov. 6, 2019 AC +6.32%
July 31, 2019 AC -2.67%
May 1, 2019 AC +0.89%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -1.29%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -8.16% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2018 AC +7.00% Biggest UP
April 25, 2018 AC +1.44%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -2.12%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC +2.58%
July 19, 2017 AC -4.94%

Avg (+ or -) 3.18%
Bias -0.14%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 92.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 87.12 to 97.88 (+/- 5.8%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 89.56 to 95.44
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 84.95 to 100.05
Based on UP max only (+7.0%): 98.98

Open to requests for other symbols.

AMD Earnings

#ShortPuts #OneNightStand – A quickie…

Bought to Close AMD AUG 21 2020 62.5 Puts @ .40 (sold for 1.82)

FB Earnings

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/facebook-fb-stock-earnings-report-delay-mark-zuckerberg