SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 3125/3145-3265/3285 condors for 1.65, IV 18.1%, SPX 3219, deltas: -.06, +.09

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close July 29th 3270/3290 call spreads for .75… as usual, I get the direction wrong! Wanted to close up to get 3.00 or more for this.

TQQQ

BTC JUly 31 75 puts at .02 cents, sold at 1.12, forgot to  post earlier.

SOXL

STO January 55 puts at 2.05, stock is trading at $204

XRX

Back in
Bought XRX / Sold XRX 08/21/2020 15.0 Covered Call @ 14.20 Debit
Bought XRX / Sold XRX 09/18/2020 16.0 Covered Call @ 14.20 Debit.

The low for the year so far on the stock is 14.22
A nice 6.5% dividend too.

AMD Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings #TakeOneForTheTeam

This might stir stir things up a little bit. Going to the monthly with a fairly aggressive sale near the breakout level.

Sold AMD AUG 21 2020 62.5 Puts @ 1.82

GLD

Gartman: “I’m Getting Out Of Gold”

Just the news gold bulls have been waiting for.

SHOP earnings analysis

#Earnings $SHOP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 6, 2020 BO +6.91%
Feb. 12, 2020 BO +7.81%
Oct. 29, 2019 BO -3.81%
Aug. 1, 2019 BO +7.39%
April 30, 2019 BO +7.85%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO +1.37%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +12.03% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO -6.66%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.45%
Feb. 15, 2018 BO +0.28%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2017 BO +5.77%

Avg (+ or -) 6.11%
Bias 2.12%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 982.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 895.07 to 1068.93 (+/- 8.9%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 921.98 to 1042.02
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.0%): 863.87 to 1100.13
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 893.42

Open to requests for other symbols.

AMD

BTC AMD 7/31/2020 54 #ShortPut @0.11. Was STO @3.14 on 7/16.
Have been in this for a while, just taking the profit early here. I still think AMD is in a pretty good position right now, with what Intel announced recently about issues. Will likely look again after earnings.

TQQQ

STO December 60 puts at 5.60

AMD earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMD reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 28, 2020 AC -3.33%
Jan. 28, 2020 AC -5.97%
Oct. 29, 2019 AC +0.30%
July 30, 2019 AC -10.09%
April 30, 2019 AC -2.96%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +19.94% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC -15.44% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2018 AC +14.33%
April 25, 2018 AC +13.69%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC +6.75%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -13.47%
July 25, 2017 AC +4.60%

Avg (+ or -) 9.24%
Bias 0.70%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 69.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 62.72 to 75.28 (+/- 9.1%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 62.62 to 75.38
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.9%): 55. 24 to 82.76
Based on DOWN max only (-15.4%): 58.35

Open to requests for other symbols.

NFLX

#ShortStrangles – Squeezing it in a little for some extra credit. Still well outside the expected move…

Rolled NFLX AUG 21 2020 400.0/600.0 Strangle to AUG 21 2020 425.0/575.0 Strangle @ 2.15 credit (10.70 total now)

SLV strangle

Sold $SLV 8/21 20.50/27 strangle @ 1.00. Delta neutral with both sides at 22 delta. IV rank 55.

TQQQ

STO august 14, 75 put at .75

STO August 14, 80 put at 1.20

STO August 21,70 put at .85

STO September 4, 65 put at 1.25

VXX Puts

New VXX Put Diagonals
Bought VXX Jan 15 2021 13.0 Puts / Sold VXX Jul 31 2020 27.50 Puts @ 0.12 Credit.
Bought VXX Jan 15 2021 14.0 Put / Sold VXX Jul 31 2020 28.00 Put @ 0.17 Credit.
Adding Jan longs for free if the short puts expire Friday.

LABU

#ShortPuts – Sold LABU AUG 21 2020 45.0 Puts @ 1.80

TQQQ

#ShortPuts #TakeOneForTheTeam

Sold TQQQ AUG 21 2020 90.0 Put @ 3.30

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX July 29th 3260/3240 put spreads for 14.00. Condors bought last Wednesday for 16.95. Looking to avoid a possible danger zone tomorrow, and sell the call spread on a bounce.

CINF

Bought to close 1 CINF 08/21/2020 50.0 Put @ 0.05. It can’t trade any lower. Out almost a month early.
Sold this on 6/19 @ 2.02 when CINF was 63.22