#earnings KSS
Sold Sept. 18, 20/27.50 #shortstrangles for 1.73
Thanks for the data Jeff
Monthly Archives: August 2020
SQ NUGT Rolls / TQQQ Puts Closed
#coveredcalls
$SQ BTC 8/21 142 calls and STO 8/28 145 calls at .75 debit. Basis now 88.40
$NUGT BTC 8/21 94 calls and STO 8/28 101 calls at 2.30 debit. Basis now 116.10
#shortputs
$TQQQ BTC 8/21 90 put at .10. Thank you @fuzzballl
VXX new diagonals
I have not yet replaced the dozen or so strike 25 short Puts I had that expired Friday, leaving a bunch of 2021 fully paid for long positions.
Tiptoeing back in with new diagonals:
Bought to open VXX Jun 18 2021 9.0 Puts / Sold VXX Aug 21 2020 24.5 Puts @ 0.12 Credit.
It would be nice if we got just a tiny market pullback this week.
KSS earnings analysis
#Earnings $KSS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 19, 2020 BO -7.65%
March 3, 2020 BO -2.62%
Nov. 19, 2019 BO -19.48% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 20, 2019 BO -6.88%
May 21, 2019 BO -12.33%
March 5, 2019 BO +7.31% Biggest UP
Nov. 20, 2018 BO -9.22%
Aug. 21, 2018 BO +1.71%
May 22, 2018 BO -7.42%
March 1, 2018 BO -5.05%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +0.93%
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -5.79%
Avg (+ or -) 7.20%
Bias -5.54%, strong negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 23.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): CANNOT ACCESS
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 21.53 to 24.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-19.5%): 18.68 to 27.72
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 24.90
NOTE: 5-day maximum DOWN is the same, while max UP is less, meaning 5-day performance is even more negative for KSS.
Open to requests for other symbols.
WBA
Ex-div tomorrow for 0.4675 for those wanting a dividend capture trade.
Stock is close to the low for the last week.
Dividend Yield 4.46%
#coveredcalls CNQ Bought a Sept….
#coveredcalls CNQ
Bought a Sept. 18, 21 covered call for 19.53, .32 dividend on Sept. 17, current price of 20.33
TOS still updating…
AMZN
BTC September 18, 2650/2700-3700/3750 iron condor at 4.60, sold at 9.35, Using the TT Style of trading.
TQQQ
In my IRA, BTC August 21, 45 puts at .01, sold at .57
Also, BTC the 65 puts at .01, sold at .52
GOOGL
STO 1250/1300-1700/1750 iron condor at 6.25 for October 2 expiration.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 21st 3360/3380-3390/3410 condors for 15.20, with SPX at 3382. Lowest price I have paid in this strategy. But if we are going to consolidate near the 3400 level the exits will get tricky.
ThinkorSwim slow?
Anyone else having issues with TOS being slow or nonfunctional this morning?
AAL
Sold AAL 08/21/2020 14.0 Covered Call @ 0.28.
This replaces the 13.50 Call that expired Friday
VXX
Bought to open 1 VXX Nov 20 2020 60.00 Call @ 0.98.
Adding this to my stable of longs in November.
I don’t average down old positions. I lower the strike of new positions instead.
Next target is the Nov 55 Call at the same price.
Election chaos is coming …
MDLZ
BTC MDLZ Aug 14 $55.0 short straddle @ $1.20 (originally sold for $1.21)
STO MDLZ Aug 21 $56.0 short straddle @ $1.03
I’ve noticed that the bid/ask spread on the calls is outrageous and very difficult to get filled without giving up too much. If this continues I will shut down this particular set.
Cover is the Jan 2022 long $40 put / $65 call strangle.
EWZ
BTC EWZ Aug 14 $31.5 straddle @ $0.58 (sold for $1.46)
STO EWZ Aug 21 $31.5 straddle @ $1.48
Cover is EWZ Jan 2022 long strangle $27 call / $37 put
BIDU NTAP NVDA
#ShortPuts #JadeLizards #OptionsExpiration – Out all day but got a few fills…
BIDU: Wish I could’ve watched it closer…would have been a full winner but I’ll take it.
Bought to Close BIDU AUG 14 2020 116.0/120.0/122.0 Jade Lizards @ 1.26 (sold for 2.05)
NVDA: Replacing an expiring position. Earnings next week.
Sold NVDA SEP 18 2020 380.0 Put @ 4.10
Expired: NVDA 420.0 Put (sold for 2.90)
NTAP: Still chugging along. Earnings still two weeks out. Rolling covered calls.
Rolled NTAP AUG 14 2020 41.5 Calls to AUG 21 2020 42.0 Calls @ .35 credit
Earnings expirations
#Earnings
$BIDU and $AMAT iron condors sold yesterday both expired worthless.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 17th 3290/3310-3410/3430 condors for 1.00, IV 9.35%, SPX close: 3372, deltas: -.07,+.07. Exact same strikes and premium as today’s expiration. Filled 11 minutes after the bell.
Expiring: Aug 14th 3290/3310-3410/3430 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00
#SPX7dte Waiting until Monday morning to buy the Aug 21st spread
Expiration
#optionsexpiration
$BIDU Earnings trades Thank you @fuzzballl and @jeffcp66
$AMAT Earnings trade Thank you @jeffcp66
$MRNA 75 call
$MRVL 37.5 call
#closing VIAC On February 26,…
#closing VIAC
On February 26, I sold a 24/25 put ratio spread in VIAC, expiring in April. In March, some strange world events caused VIAC do go down down down. Strangest thing, sports were cancelled.
One short 24 put was rolled to 25, then rolled 4 more times, closed today for .11 for an overall gain of $368.
TRADES:
STO THC 8/21/20 30.0 CALLS @.55
STO VIAC 8/21/20 28.0 NTM CALLS @.56 Will probably have to cover. Have the 26.0 & 27.0 puts open.
Rolls
My timing sucked today 😦
Econ Calendar for week of 8/17/20
VXX roll Down
Bought to close VXX 08/14/2020 26.0 Puts @ 0.59.
Sold VXX 08/21/2020 25.0 Puts @ 0.71.
VXX is at 25.48
Sold the 26 puts all during the last week at 0.92, 0.60, 0.67, 0.70 and 0.69
Sep TQQQ
Sold $TQQQ 9/18 80 puts @ 1.45
KSS roll
Another one I was hoping would expire after it dropped to 22.56 this morning. I hate Friday explosions
Bought to close KSS 08/14/2020 23.0 Diagonal Calls / Sold VIAC 08/21/2020 25.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.12 Credit.
KSS is at 23.87
VIAC roll dangit
I spent all of the last few days hoping this would expire. I hate Friday explosions
Bought to close VIAC 08/14/2020 28.0 Diagonal Calls / Sold VIAC 08/21/2020 30.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.07 Credit.
VIAC is at 28.21
NFLX
BTC August 21, 400/600 strangle at .40 cents, sold at 10.50
BTC august 2, TQQQ 45 puts at .01, sold at .57
TRADES:
CC BTO STOCK @21.04
CSIQ BTO STOCK @26.14
THC STO 8/21/20 28.0 PUTS @.55
#shortputs XOM #closing BIDU XOM…
#shortputs XOM DKNG #closing BIDU
XOM Sold Sept. 18, 40 put for .75
DKNG Sold Sept. 18, 30 put for 1.75
BIDU closed earnings trade for $25 loss
TSLA
BTC August 21, 600 put at .05, sold at 2.30
TQQQ
BTC August 14, 75 puts at .01, sold at .75
BTC August 14, 80 puts at .01, sold at 1.20
SPX 1dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 14th 3290/3310-3410/3430 condors for 1.00, IV 14.1%, SPX 3373, deltas, -.06, +.07
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 14th 3335/3315 put spreads for 1.35. Planning to close the call side today as well, but looking for a higher close.
Condors bought last Friday for 16.30. If we get a down open tomorrow this one will be flirting with the danger zone, so getting out today.
#earnings #ironcondor BIDU Sold Aug….
VXX
Sold VXX 08/21/2020 32.50 Calls @ 0.23 with the stock at 25.60
Will replace similar calls expiring tomorrow.
Written against Sept, Oct and Nov long calls.
AMAT IC
#Earnings Same story here, looking for an average or less move, low risk. This one leans bullish because I set it when the stock was closer to 66.00. Only partial fill so far:
Sold to Open $AMAT Aug 14th 62/63-69/70 iron condors for .42
BIDU Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – Playing it to the downside with breakeven at 1.5x the expected move. Small window here to get max profit. A move to the downside at the expected move would be perfect. As usual no upside risk.
Sold BIDU AUG 14 2020 116.0/120.0/122.0 Jade Lizards @ 2.05
BIDU IC
#Earnings. Sold to Open $BIDU Aug 14th 114/116-134/136 iron condors for .60. Looking for a move at the average or less.
WYNN
#ShortPuts – Just in case we wake up in the morning and Vegas and Macau are both closing again. I’m such a positive person! 🙂 🙂
Bought to Close WYNN AUG 14 2020 71.5 Put @ .02 (sold for 1.05)
SPCE
#CoveredCalls – Rolling…
Rolled SPCE AUG 14 2020 17.5 Calls to AUG 21 2020 18.0 Calls @ .11 credit
LABU again
#ShortPuts – Taking this one too…
Bought to Close LABU AUG 14 2020 50.0 Puts @ .15 (sold for 1.50)
KSS – rolling into earnings
Bought to close KSS 08/14/2020 22.00 Covered Calls / Sold KSS 08/21/2020 22.50 Covered Calls @ 0.80 Credit plus another half point on the strike.
That’s a pretty big premium with the stock at 23.0.
Also Bought to close KSS 08/14/2020 22.50 Diagonal calls / Sold 08/21/2020 24.50 Diagonal Calls @ 0.27 Credit plus a big 2 point jump in the short strike.
LABU UVXY
#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – Booking some and getting a jump start on covered call selling…
LABU: Probably safe but I’ll take ’em early.
Bought to Close LABU AUG 21 2020 40.0 Puts @ .20 (sold for 1.39)
UVXY: Letting stock get assigned at 21.45 basis since puts aren’t very rollable now. Covering aggressively in case volatility stays low. In an IRA so have to spread it for now.
Sold UVXY AUG 21 2020 19.0/39.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 2.07
#shortputs UAL Sold Sept.18, 29…
#shortputs UAL
Sold Sept.18, 29 put for 1.00, stock at 36.
Closing LABU
Bought to close $LABU 8/21 45 puts @ .55. Sold for 1.80 on 7/28. Thanks @fuzzballl!
EWZ
KODK
EWZ Roll: I’m following along w/ @winstonthink ‘s ITM strangle leap w/ weekly straddle sales. I think you guys are calling these #diagonalbutterfly ‘s I’m rolling the weekly straddles at 50% profit.
Core Strangle Leap: Jan 2022 27 call/37 put @ $16.72. Max risk on a 1-lot is $672
Straddle 1 Aug 7 32’s sold at $1.40, covered at $.70 ($70)
Straddle 2 Aug 14 32’s sold at 1.60 covered at $.80 ($80)
Straddle 3 Aug 21 31.5’s sold at 1.50 today
Once $672 profit is realized on the straddles I will add a 2nd leap strangle. My objective is to get to a ratio sell situation where there is always more net long contracts than short, for a beneficial long vega position where all risk has been covered.
KODK….ugh rookie rookie here!
At about $35 I placed a ratio put spread/combo fly at 25/30 for 5.65 cr and a 15/10/7.5 put BWB fly for 1.25 debit. This gave me a breakeven of about 10.68. And a max loss of $5K on stock assignment with stock going to zero. Subsequently I closed the put debit component of the put ratio (30/25) for 4.85 taking 97% of available max profit.
I added a Sep 15/17.5 ATM (at the time) Call Credit spread for .88, and also added a DITM put Sep 20-strike. At this point it surely looks like a stock assignment is inevitable, so it’s about collecting as much as I can until then to lower the cost basis. These things can reverse on news, so trying to collect cash but not dig too big a hole on a reversal. This will be the classic Option Bistro game–that so many of you have mastered— to patiently and persistently work the basis. What a management team disaster on this. Queue the lawsuits!
TSLA
#ShortStrangles – It’s a long way from this new strike especially with the split boost behind it. Rolling up for more credit but still 2x outside the expected move…
Rolled TSLA SEP 18 2020 700.0 Put to SEP 18 2020 1000.0 Put @ 5.55 credit
Now 1000/2900 strangle @ 12.10
AMAT earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMAT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 14, 2020 AC -4.39%
Feb. 12, 2020 AC +3.05%
Nov. 14, 2019 AC +8.95% Biggest UP
Aug. 15, 2019 AC -1.12%
May 16, 2019 AC +2.49%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC +1.08%
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -7.71%
May 17, 2018 AC -8.24% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 AC +3.89%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC -2.33%
Aug. 17, 2017 AC +2.73%
Avg (+ or -) 4.16%
Bias -0.46%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 125.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 62.49 to 69.51 (+/- 5.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 63.25 to 68.75
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.0%): 60.09 to 71.91
Based on DOWN max only (-8.2%): 60.56
Open to requests for other symbols.
BIDU earnings analysis
#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 18, 2020 AC +2.00%
Feb. 27, 2020 AC +0.05%
Nov. 6, 2019 AC +13.51% Biggest UP
Aug. 19, 2019 AC +4.31%
May 16, 2019 AC -16.51% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2019 AC -2.70%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.64%
July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC +5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15%
July 27, 2017 AC +9.45%
Avg (+ or -) 6.51%
Bias 0.66%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 125.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 115.84 to 134.16 (+/- 7.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 116.86 to 133.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.5%): 104.36 to 145.64
Based on UP max only (+13.5%): 141.89
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 7-dte (or maybe 6-dte)
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 19th 3350/3370-3380/3400 condors for 15.80, with SPX at 3378.
Is VIAC a good candidate for covered call writing?
We liked the potential VIAC represented (believe the idea came from Coveredcalladvisor.com)
- Weekly options
- Great dividend
- History of stock growth
- Good option premiums
We opened a CC position on Jun 4 with the goal of capturing the $.24 dividend (Jun 12) and the option premium. Stock quickly jumped up in price and then fell back below what we paid (blue line in chart below). After the stock price fell and our Jun 19 $24 call expired at $0 we didn’t sell additional options hoping for stock price to rebound. On Jul 14 we started selling calls again. We have done calendar rolls at the $25 strike price each Friday.
In 70 days the position has generated profits of $5,050, 21.3% or 111% annualized. Very pleased with the return on this quality stock. I think it is a great CC candidate. Plans are to continue to roll the calls and capture the upcoming dividend in Sep.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 12th 3390/3410 call spreads for .25. Not risking the small chance of a volatile close. Condors sold yesterday for 1.30.
Not buying a #SPX7dteLong today… going to buy it in the morning, which seems to save me about a buck in price.
Expiring: Aug 12th 3350/3350 call spreads for 20.00 max credit. Condors bought last Thursday morning for 15.80.
ATVI
$ATVI Bounced nicely near the 50 day moving average, at the bottom of its trading range. Sold 9/18 75 puts @ 1.42 (23 delta) with the stock at 81.53.
A TRADE:
CC STO 8/14/20 22.0 PUTS @.63 Trying to acquire stock cheaper.
NTES earnings analysis
#Earnings $NTES reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 19, 2020 AC -1.35%
Feb. 26, 2020 AC -6.91%
Nov. 20, 2019 AC +2.28%
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +10.26% Biggest UP
May 15, 2019 AC +6.51%
Feb. 20, 2019 AC -5.88%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC +5.31%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -10.96% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2018 AC -7.45%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -6.27%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +7.85%
Aug. 9, 2017 AC -9.77%
Avg (+ or -) 6.73%
Bias -1.37%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 473.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 445.25 to 500.75 (+/- 5.9%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 441.15 to 504.85
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 421.16 to 524.84
Based on UP max only (+10.3%): 521.53
Open to requests for other symbols.
PLUG
#BullPutSpreads – Thanks @Jeff for pointing this one out. Might be a fun one to play with…pretty low risk selling ITM spreads. I’ll manage it similar to an earnings spread when I sell those ITM. If the stock tanks one covered call sale will get that back.
Sold PLUG SEP 18 2020 12.0/10.0 Bull Put Spreads @ 1.30
TRADES:
CODX STO 8/14/20 22.5 CALLS @1.00
CODX STO 8/14/20 20.0 CALLS @1.45
KODK STO 8/14/20 11.0 CALLS @.42 An add.
LULU
LRCX – Unbalanced Condor
LRCX @ $376
BTO 1 x LRCX Aug 21: $375 /$370 long PUT Vertical @ $ 2.60 debit
STO 2 x LRCX Aug 21: $360 / $355 short PUT Vertical @ $1.27 credit (x 2)
Total debit of $0.05 for the unbalanced Condor. Downside breakeven is around $358. No risk to the upside (just the $0.05 cost of the trade).
If LRCX starts imploding then throw on a long PUT diagonal (e.g. -1 Aug 21 $355 / +1 Aug 28 $355) at around $2, which drops the downside breakeven to $346.
Risk/Reward extremely enticing.
LABU
Sold 9/4 40 puts @ 1.75
#ShortPuts
PLUG play
#Speculation This one is waking up after a long dormancy and Cramer was talking it up this morning.
Bought to Open $PLUG Jan 2021 20 calls for .80, when stock dipped to 10.11.
A TRADE:
KODK STO 8/14/20 11.0 CALL @.55
#fallingknife OSTK STO 18 Sep…
#fallingknife
OSTK
STO 18 Sep Bups
75/70 for 2.05
#closing LULU XOM LULU Aug….
#closing LULU XOM
LULU Aug. 5, sold Aug. 21, 365/375 call spread for 1.23, bought today for .70, thanks Ramie
XOM Aug. 4, sold Aug. 21, 41 put for .72, bought today for .13
NFLX
STO September 25, 400/600 strangle at 6.02
TSLA
Peak Insanity: Tesla Adds $16 Billion In Market Cap After Announcing 5-For-1 Stock Split
Tesla stock has added almost half of GM’s market cap after hours on the news of the stock split.
Taking one for the team
TQQQ, STO September 25, 90 put at 4.05
Closing SHOP
Bought to close $SHOP 8/21 1120/1140 bear call spread @ 1.00. Sold for 5.00 on 7/29.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 3225/3245-3390/3410 condors for 1.30, IV 19.8%, SPX 3338, deltas: -.07,+.07
SPX 1 DTE
#spx1dte
$SPX STO 8/12 3240/3260/3420/3400 at 1.05
VXX
Sold VXX 08/14/2020 31.50 Diagonal Calls @ 0.15.
Sold against long Sep 38 and 40 calls.
Sold VXX 08/14/2020 32.00 Diagonal Calls @ 0.16.
Sold against long Oct 48 and 51 calls.
Getting back 15% of the cost of my longs.
Converting some short diagonal put spreads to “Short Calendar Iron Condor Spreads”
TRADES:
CC BTO STOCK @21.45
CC STO 8/14/20 ITM 22.0 PUTS @1.05
CC STO 8/21/20 ITM 21.5 PUTS @1.03
SWKS STC STOCK @143.56 Not doing badly, just got tired while stock was making up its mind what to do. ;>)
VXX
Bought to open 1 VXX 11/20/2020 65.0 Call @ 0.94.
Preparing for election fireworks.
VIAC ADS
Sold VIAC 08/14/2020 28.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.35
Sold ADS 08/14/2020 55.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.25
#DoubleDip
Options Bistro 