MRVL Put Roll

#shortputs

$MRVL BTC 10/30 43.50 put and STO 11/6 43 put at .40 debit

SPY 1-dte

Sold 1 SPY 10/30/2020 335.0 Diagonal Call @ 1.02.
I already have one of these so I’m betting on a flat or down day tomorrow.

#earnings TWTR #shortstrangles Sold Oct….

#earnings TWTR #shortstrangles

Sold Oct. 30, 44/63 strangle for 1.30
#tastytradefollow

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Nov 4th 3300/3320-3335/3355 iron condors for 18.45. This is 15-wide, versus my usual 10-wide. I did it to get better premium, but it only got me about .15.

#spx1dte

TQQQ Put Closed

#shortputs

$TQQQ BTC 10/30 130 put at 3.50. STO at 1.60

NIO Puts

#shortputs

$NIO STO 10/30 31 puts at .63
$NIO STO 11/6 29 puts at 1.09

WBA OMC

S&P 500 stocks with a positive dividend payout that are hitting new 52week Lows today.
#FallingKnife

VXX Roll plus a new long

Bought to Close some of my VXX Oct 30 2020 24.50 Diagonal Calls / Sold to Open VXX Nov 06 2020 27.5 Calls @ 0.40 Net Credit plus a BIG 3 point bump in the strike price, pushing them out of the money.

Took that cash and bought some VXX Dec 18 2020 90.0 Calls @ 0.39

VXX – more puts

With the stock right around 25.70 I added to my puts for next week.
Sold VXX Nov 06 2020 22.50 Puts at $0.68
Sold VXX Nov 06 2020 22.00 Puts at $0.52
Sold VXX Nov 06 2020 21.50 Puts at $0.38
Sold VXX Nov 06 2020 21.00 Puts at $0.27.

A lot of these are paired off against VXX puts already long for Jan 2022.
#DoubleDip

FB earnings analysis

#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 30, 2020 AC +8.17%
April 29, 2020 AC +5.41%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC -6.13%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +1.80%
July 24, 2019 AC -1.93%
April 24, 2019 AC +5.84%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%

Avg (+ or -) 6.44%
Bias 1.60%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 282.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 264.08 to 299.92 (+/- 6.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 263.84 to 300.16
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 335.47 to 228.53
Based on UP max only (+10.8%): 312.48

Open to requests for other symbols.

AMZN earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 30, 2020 AC +3.69%
April 30, 2020 AC -7.59% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 30, 2020 AC +7.37%
Oct. 24, 2019 AC -1.09%
July 25, 2019 AC -1.55%
April 25, 2019 AC +2.54%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81%
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 4.77%
Bias 0.86%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 3210.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 3045.70 to 3374.30 (+/- 5.1%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 3056.96 to 363.04
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 2785.96 to 3634.04
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 2959.30

Open to requests for other symbols.

VXX Call Roll

Partial rollup:
Bought to close VXX Oct 30 2020 24.00 Diagonal Calls / Sold to Open VXX Nov 06 2020 26.50 Diagonal Calls @ 0.02 Net Credit plus a 2.50 bump up in the short strike.
With the stock at 26.22, this moves the short position back out of the money.

VXX Put roll

Bought to close VXX Oct 30 2020 21.5 Puts / Sold to Open VXX Nov 06 2020 21.5 Puts @ 0.32 Net Credit.

BABA BWB

BABA currently trading @ $311

BTO BABA Nov 20, 322.5 / 312.5 / 292.5 Broken Wing Put Butterfly @ $2.26 credit.

No risk to the upside (keep the credit) – downside breakeven $297.

Standard adjustment if short strike is breached – roll down and out the $312.5 / 292.5 Bull Put spread for as low a debit as possible. Hold on to the Long $322.5 / 312.5 spread pocketing $10. Timing is key to avoid whipsaw.

#BWB 

RH BWB

RH currently trading @ $359

BTO RH Nov 20, 370 / 360 / 340 Broken Wing Put Butterfly @ $3.15 credit

No risk to the upside (keep the credit) – downside breakeven $347.

Working on the premise that everyone staying at home during lockdown leads to strong dissatisfaction with their interior decor.

#BWB 

SPX Iron Condor For tomorrow’s…

SPX Iron Condor
For tomorrow’s expiration. Sold $SPXW 10/30 3190/3215/3375/3400 iron condor @ 4.25. Short puts 13 delta, short calls 12 delta.

OSTK

#ShortCalls – Gotta take the quick 15 minute profit. Hopefully a bounce to sell again later…

Bought to Close OSTK NOV 6 2020 100.0 Calls @ .60 (sold for 1.50)

OLED Earnings

#ShortStrangles #Earnings – Going wide…hopefully wide enough. Great premium to roll into next week if needed.

Sold OLED OCT 30 2020 172.5/230.0 Strangles @ 2.87

OSTK

#ShortCalls – Selling the pop against monthly 65 puts…

Sold OSTK NOV 6 2020 100.0 Calls @ 1.50

TDOC

#ShortPuts – Crazy fill well above mid price…

Sold TDOC NOV 6 2020 197.5 Put @ 2.20

VXX Puts

Bought to close VXX Oct 30 2020 23 Puts at $0.01. They won’t trade any lower.

This was my biggest VXX short put position. Sold Friday on a roll down @ 1.43.

Replacing these with much smaller positions for next week:
Sold VXX Nov 06 2020 22.50 Puts @ 0.58
Sold VXX Nov 06 2020 22.00 Puts @ 0.44

TDOC Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings #OneNightStand – Taking the quickie and looking out to next week to add…

Bought to Close TDOC OCT 30 2020 212.5 Put @ 1.35 (sold for 3.10)

AAPL earnings analysis

#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 30, 2020 AC +10.46% Biggest UP
April 30, 2020 AC -1.60%
Jan. 28, 2020 AC +2.09%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +2.26%
July 30, 2019 AC +2.04%
April 30, 2019 AC +4.90%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +6.83%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018 AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC +4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.61%

Avg (+ or -) 4.50%
Bias 2.41%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 114.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 104.44 TO 123.56 (+/- 8.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 108.87 TO 119.13
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.5%): 102.08 TO 125.92
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 106.44

Open to requests for other symbols.

DXCM drops $90 after good earnings announcement…..

https://coveredcallswithjeff.wordpress.com/2020/10/29/dxcm-hard-to-understand-a-90-drop-and-how-we-responded/

#coveredcalls, #dxcm