SPY at the bell

Bought to Close SPY Oct 21 2020 344 Calls at $0.04 – sold for 6.72 on 10/16 and 4.08 on 10/19
Sold to Open SPY Oct 23 2020 346 Calls at $1.06.

LABU

#ShortPuts Adding small…

Sold LABU NOV 13 2020 40.0 Put @ 1.43
Sold LABU NOV 27 2020 35.0 Put @ 1.29

#ironcondor NFLX Sold Nov. 20,…

#ironcondor NFLX

Sold Nov. 20, 440/445/575/580 for 1.53

SPY Rollups

Bought to Close 1 SPY Oct 21 2020 340 Call / Sold to Open 1 SPY Oct 23 2020 341 Call @ 0.36 Credit with SPY at 343.91
Bought to Close SPY Oct 21 2020 342 Calls / Sold to Open SPY Oct 23 2020 344 Calls @ 0.53 Credit with SPY at 343.82.

Hoping to cover my 344.0 Calls @ 0.01

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX 3470/3450 put spreads for 19.30. Call side sold for 3.70 this morning, so total credit of 23.00 against purchase of condor last Thursday for 17.05. Nice expiration day!

ABT BTC Oct 23 $107 Calls…..Abbott earnings good…raised full year guidance and stock dropped $2….so I bought the calls back for $.85 ….looking for a bounce and will cover shares again. STO on 10/15 for $2.87.

CINF

New Diagonal Spread
Bought to Open 1 CINF Mar 19 2021 95 Call / Sold to Open 1 CINF Nov 20 2020 85 Call @ 0.40 Net Credit.
The stock is at the top of a big 5.5% run today @ 84.25

KSS

With the stock up 6.6% today:
Sold KSS 10/23/2020 22.00 Covered Calls @ 0.47
Sold KSS 10/23/2020 23.00 Diagonal Calls @ 0.18 against long November calls left over from another spread.
#DoubleDip

OSTK

#ShortStrangles – Moving the earnings date didn’t do me any favors. Rolling put side of the strangles out and down for a credit and concentrating on selling the call side against it now.

Rolled OSTK OCT 30 2020 70.0 Puts to NOV 20 2020 65.0 Puts @ .90 credit (4.20 total now)
Sold OSTK OCT 23 2020 73.0 Calls @ .60

Markets this week

dXOlQhpF

btfd

TSLA earnings analysis

#Earnings $TSLA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 22, 2020 AC -4.97%
April 29, 2020 AC -2.32%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC +10.29%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +17.66% Biggest UP
July 24, 2019 AC -13.61% Biggest DOWN
April 24, 2019 AC -4.26%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -0.56%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18%
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%

Avg (+ or -) 8.33%
Bias 0.55%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 430.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 394.07 to 465.93 (+/- 8.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 394.19 to 465.81
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.7%): 354.06 to 505.94
Based on DOWN max only (-13.6%): 371.48

Open to requests for other symbols.

NFLX put spread

Sold $NFLX 11/20 455/445 bull put spread @ 2.42.

SPY

Rolled all my short Calls with strike prices below 340 forward a few days and up $100.

Still waiting to see how my 340 / 342 / 344 calls end the day.
Stock range 342.50 – 345.67 So far today.
If we stay down or fall further it could be VERY profitable

LABU

STO December 35 puts at 1.90

VIX

There we have it! The Oct $VIX futures contract has expired and the front month “contango” is gone. Term structure remains very flat, waiting for the elections to either spike higher or collapse in a heap. I have no idea which one.

NVDA

#ShortStrangles – Been selling calls against next week’s short put. This week looks safe so selling next week early. Rolling put up for additional premium as well. Earnings still a few weeks away.

Sold NVDA OCT 30 2020 600.0 Call @ 1.55
Rolled NVDA OCT 30 2020 510.0 Put to OCT 30 2020 525.0 Put @ 2.47 credit

Overall position is now Oct 30th 525/600 @ 10.75

TSLA Earnings

#ShortPuts #ShortStrangles – No idea about this one but it feels risky. 🙂 🙂

Sold TSLA OCT 23 2020 392.5/500.0 Strangle @ 5.35

Going out an extra week on this one…

Sold TSLA OCT 30 2020 375.0 Put @ 4.35

NFLX Earnings

#ShortPuts #ShortStrangles #OneNightStand – Booking earnings trades and adding a small post earnings position…

Bought to Close NFLX OCT 23 2020 475.0 Put @ .60 (sold for 4.05)
Bought to Close NFLX OCT 23 2020 480.0/600.0 Strangle @ 1.40 (sold for 6.32)

Sold NFLX OCT 30 2020 460.0/560.0 Strangle @ 3.30

TSCO earnings analysis

#Earnings $TSCO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

July 23, 2020 BO +0.03%
April 23, 2020 BO -0.36%
Jan. 30, 2020 BO -1.25%
Oct. 24, 2019 BO +3.02%
July 25, 2019 BO -0.90%
April 25, 2019 BO +0.96%
Jan. 31, 2019 BO -4.70%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +5.80%
July 26, 2018 BO +2.81%
April 26, 2018 BO +7.18% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -6.30% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 25, 2017 AC -0.98%

Avg (+ or -) 2.86%
Bias 0.44%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 150.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 142.77 to 157.23 (+/- 4.8%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 145.71 to 154.29
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.2%): 139.23 to 160.77
Based on DOWN max only (-6.3%): 140.55

Open to requests for other symbols.

#shortputs

NFLX

BTC $NFLX Oct-30-2020 555/565 #BeCS @0.50 debit. Was STO @4.52 as part of a roll on 10/14/2020.
Holding $NFLX Oct-30-2020 485/495 #BuPS – looking for a bit of post earnings recovery.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dte Sold to close $SPX Oct 21st 3480/3500 call spreads for 3.70. Need to now bank on the 3470/3450 put side for bulk of profit today. Condors bought for 17.05 last Thursday.