#Earnings – Could be another wild one and I’m due for one to struggle. Can’t pass this up though…great premium even well outside the expected move (+/- 22.10 today and 27.0 by expiry). BTW these are monthlies…
Sold MELI NOV 17 2017 200.0/280.0 Strangle @ 3.70
#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Tastytrade research suggests rolling at 15-20 days to go to maintain max daily theta which is the goal of these. If they’re out of the money I’ll hold ’em but in the money I’ll roll ’em.
Rolled GLD NOV 17 2017 125.0/118.0 Inverted Strangles to DEC 15 2017 125.0/118.0 @ .85 credit
#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Picking up another nice monthly “dividend”…
Rolled TLT NOV 17 2017 130.0 Puts to TLT DEC 15 2017 130.0 Puts @ .30 credit…
Current positions now all in December bringing in $44 per day of theta. I felt this was a pretty important thing to remember about these “forever” trades. Time decay is time decay…whether in the money or not, it’s the same. As long as the deltas are reasonable just keep on collecting. Easily bringing in 150% on margin annually.
December:
121.0 Calls and Puts
123.0 Calls
127.0 Puts
129.0 Calls
130.0 Puts
Slightly long deltas…
#ShortCalls -Cleaning up a straggler on this drop…
Bought to Close TSLA JAN 19 2018 500.0 Call @ .15 (sold for 2.15)
#Earnings – Got lucky…didn’t think 300 would hold so I’m outta here!
Bought to Close TSLA NOV 3 2017 290.0/350.0 Strangle @ .61 (sold for 4.65)
Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis
For stocks, Probability Of Bankruptcy is normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100 indicating the actual probability the firm will be distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/UAA–Probability-Of-Bankruptcy
Bottom feeders in my accounts:
AAOI: 3%
TEVA: 48%
UAA: 13%
Not really #Earnings but sort of. Uncovering my stock just in case something crazy happens.
Bought to Close TEVA NOV 3 2017 15.5 Calls @ .19 (sold for .32)
#Earnings – This could get exciting…selling 1.5x the expected move.
Sold TSLA NOV 3 2017 290.0/350.0 Strangle @ 4.65
#Earnings – Going super bullish and/or getting a little stock at close to wherever it drops to if she tanks. I’m happy either way…
Sold FB NOV 3 2017 190.0/185.0 Bull Put Spread @ 3.50
#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Surprise fill prior to the Fed announcement. Loading up more theta…
Rolled TLT NOV 17 2017 127.0 Puts to DEC 15 2017 127.0 Puts @ .66 credit
If anyone sees or notices any issues with these #LongCallDiagonals please throw it out there. Maybe we can fine tune for even more safety or profits. I got the idea from Whiz but applying it to my own underlyings. He’s been trading them for years but maybe we can improve on it.
Kinda like my cockpit briefing with the other guy (or gal 🙂 ) …if you see me doing something stupid ask me what the heck I’m doing…LOL I’ve got pretty thick skin!
#LongCallDiagonals -Not in this yet…waiting for 2020’s but here’s what I’m looking at based on Jan 2019 numbers
1. Sell 23 puts and buy 23 calls (synthetic long stock)
2. Buy 20 puts for protection for disasters
All of that for a .75 credit so max loss of 2.25 so only need to sell 3.5 cents per week to cover max loss. Anything above that goes straight to profits.
#LongCallDiagonals – 115 weeks to go. 🙂
Bought to Close DIS NOV 3 2017 99.5 Calls @ .01 (sold for .36)
Sold DIS NOV 10 2017 99.0 Calls @ 1.36
#RocketManHedge – Only need to collect 4.15 per week to carry this as a free hedge…this week’s looks safe so selling next week. So far it’s looking like carrying a short SPX position out to Jan expiry might actually turn a profit with market up or down (down would be better 🙂 )
Sold SPX NOV 10 2017 2560.0 Put @ 5.20
Selling against synthetic short in January…
#Shortstrangles – Jan 500 call looking safe so re-loading.
Sold TSLA JUN 15 2018 170.0/510.0 Strangle @ 6.01
#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Missed one yesterday. Keeping the theta coming in on these. I’ll be rolling a lot more after FOMC today.
Rolled 6 TLT NOV 17 2017 121.0 Calls to TLT DEC 15 2017 121.0 Calls @ .35 credit
#Earnings today. Trading bottom of the range with 4.5% divvy down here…no position
EDIT…bad info. Divvy about 1.9 percent but decent premium
#Earnings tomorrow…
Let me throw this one out there for a possibility. This trade may have a name but I’m not sure…LOL Sell straddle and buy uneven wings with no upside risk and breakeven at the expected move to the downside.
Sell 80 strike straddle and buy 82 call and 75 put @ 2.00 credit. Makes money above 78 (the recent low). If the stock drops to 5 bucks I still get it at a basis of 8.
Reasonable?
I guess the crisis is over. The general public has a short memory…that’s a good thing or most airlines would be out of business. I’m sure 90 percent of everyone has been pissed at an airline at some point!
Casinos on a tear today. Initial rumors of security screening and baggage checks at casino hotels probably won’t happen…
#ShortStrangles – Earnings are done so going for a quick 30 day trade betting she rests for awhile. Selling near the 50 ma on the downside and well above all time high on upside. Also, trying to be out before the end of year debt ceiling battle.
Sold ISRG DEC 8 2017 360.0/420.0 Strangle @ 4.30
#Squeeze – Pretty impressive daily and weekly squeezes. Completely missed it!
#ShortStrangles – Was away from my desk for the open and got stopped out on the tiny bounce. A reason why I’m not a fan of stops but sometimes have to use them. These were double sold so had ’em set to close at about 50 percent of max.
Bought to Close AAOI NOV 3 2017 44.0 Calls @ .59 (sold for 1.00)
#Earnings – Bounced at the 95 level so not even messing with it. Book ’em!
Bought to Close SHOP NOV 3 2017 95.0/130.0 Strangles @ .65 (sold for 1.91)
Thanks @Jeff !
Just wondering how you guys track your trades. TOS (or any platform for that matter) just isn’t very good about tracking basis in positions after rolls. I don’t treat every little trade as a stand alone trade. Sometimes it’s many rolls and adjustments but always related back to the original position until the whole enchilada is closed.
Here’s how I do it but I’m always looking for something easier. Mine can be a little time consuming if I’m very active but that’s pretty rare (and I enjoy this part anyway). It’s basically doing the calculations long hand and typing into a text file…(always backed up on two computers). This layout has evolved over the years for various types of positions but here’s the basic strangle sale with an adjustment (actual numbers if that’s ok).
Original trade:
Sold EWZ DEC 15 2017 40.0/45.0 Strangles @ 1.55
Entered in my text file:
EWZ + 559.90 (5 Dec 40 Puts @ 1.12) Dec 15 monthly
EWZ + 204.90 (5 Dec 45 Calls @ .43) Dec 15 monthly
Adjustment:
Rolled EWZ DEC 15 2017 45.0 Calls to DEC 15 2017 42.5 Calls @ .53 credit
Modified entry in my text file reflecting premium received for call roll and new strike:
EWZ + 559.90 (5 Dec 40 Puts @ 1.12) Dec 15 monthly
EWZ + 459.70 (5 Dec 42.50 Calls @ .96) Dec 15 monthly
This keeps a running total of exactly where the trade stands at any time. Dollars rounded to nearest nickel after commissions and premium received actual amount to the penny.
Am I too anal? LOL open to ideas. It’s a shame a platform can’t track these any better!
#ShortStrangles – Rolled EWZ DEC 15 2017 45.0 Calls to DEC 15 2017 42.5 Calls @ .53 credit
Position now 40/42.5 Strangles @ 2.08
Not a big chart guy….is this a head and shoulders top? Breaking support at the shoulder line?
#ShortStrangles – Nice pop out of the daily squeeze. Looking at Dec 240/300 @ 5.50…
Whaddya think?
#Earnings – They don’t report until next week and I had already sold a partial put position at the 180 strike but never got a chance to add. To get the rest of the position on I’m going with a super bullish position but protection if she implodes.
Sold NVDA NOV 10 2017 210.0/200.0 Bull Put Spread @ 5.25
Scenarios:
1. NVDA rallies then yay!
2. NVDA drifts on up into the announcement might book it early.
3. NVDA implodes I book the long put and take stock at a decent basis to sell covered calls.
#ShortStrangles – Had so much fun with this over earnings gonna try to squeeze a little more out of it.
Sold FFIV NOV 17 2017 115.0/127.0 Strangles @ 1.45
#CoveredCalls – Booking this one since the next one was already sold…
Bought to Close REGN NOV 3 2017 437.5 Call @ .30 (sold for 4.50)
#Earnings – Closed iron flies to avoid exercise fees and taking .78 loss…
Bought to Close AMZN OCT 27 2017 990.0/1000.0/1010.0 Iron Flies @ 10.03 (sold for 9.25)
#ShortStrangles – Just for simplicity and to keep the theta up a little rolling ITM short puts out to where the 130 short calls are sitting.
Rolled WYNN NOV 3 2017 152.5 Puts to NOV 17 2017 152.5 Puts @ .97 credit.
Position is now 152.5/130 inverted strangles @ 19.95. Leaning towards taking the stock at a basis of 132.55 and rolling the 130 calls up and out. Turning it into a covered call play…
#CoveredCalls -Trailing stop on next week’s so going ahead and selling earnings now since stock looks weak…
Sold REGN NOV 10 2017 425.0 Call @ 6.50
#LongCallDiagonals – Rolling the front month…unfortunately. Talk about capping your gains… 😦
Rolled AMZN OCT 27 2017 990.0 Call to DEC 15 2017 1000.0 Call @ 1.29 credit.
Picking up another 11.29 of upside. I guess the short call can be treated as a trailing stop now. Probably able to roll it up 10 points a month for close to even. If AMZN levels off hopefully I can catch up to it eventually.
#LongCallDiagonals – Rolling the front month…
Rolled HIMX OCT 27 2017 10.0 Calls to NOV 10 2017 10.5 Calls @ .10 credit
Picking up another 60 cents of upside…
#FallingKnife – Good divvy down here…no position
#Earnings – Not really seeing anything for tomorrow that I like so letting out the leash a little. These should have a little bit of volatility collapse anyway. Selling down around the 200 ma.
Sold WDC NOV 17 2017 85.0 Puts @ 1.55
#CoveredCalls – Got a breakeven stop set on next week’s so selling earnings week too. Big risk here is a buyout and the stock spikes to 100…
Sold AAOI NOV 10 2017 44.0 Calls @ 1.10
#Futures – I must be bored but corn ( /ZC ) sure looks like it’s ready to go higher. Pretty tight daily squeeze after a big drop.
#ShortPuts #IRA – Sold PSA JUN 15 2018 160.0 Put @ 2.50
This would get the stock at 157.50 raising the divvy yield to 5.1%
#SyntheticStock #IRA – 2020 LEAPS out so plenty of time to sell the crap out of this one. Earnings in a couple weeks so some good premium to get started with…
Synthetic stock in Jan 2020 for .58 credit:
Sold DIS JAN 17 2020 100.0 Puts @ 11.65
Bought DIS JAN 17 2020 100.0 Calls @ 11.07
Applying the .58 credit to help buy the disaster puts:
Bought DIS JAN 17 2020 90.0 Puts @ 7.18
In the 2020 position for 6.60 debit. Disaster puts are 10 points under the synthetic so max risk in the entire trade is 16.60. Should easily sell 4 to 5 times that much in front month weeklies if DIS goes nowhere and the trade runs the full 116 weeks. That works out to only needing to sell 14 cents a week to cover max loss.
So:
Sold DIS NOV 3 2017 99.5 Calls @ .36
BIDU – puts at the expected move still 2.40
EXPE – decent premium
WDC – Up on the back of STX rally
Leaning towards WDC strangles of some sort…
#FallingKnife with nice divvy…
#Earnings #ShortStrangles – Decent earnings season so far…sold 11 minutes before the close and closed 3 minutes after the open. My kind of trade!
Bought to Close FFIV OCT 27 2017 115.0/130.0 Strangles @ .10 (sold for 2.40)
🙂 🙂
#Earnings #ShortStrangles – Out of AVGO earlier so now there’s room to take a shot at this one…
Sold FFIV OCT 27 2017 115.0/130.0 Strangles @ 2.40
Skewed slighly bullish with an expected move of 7.01 with stock at 118.90
If she can get down to 120 or so (116 would be even better) it will be my next Whiz style #SyntheticStock position…FWIW 🙂
#SyntheticStock #LongCallDiagonals – Booking and selling. Earnings next week so great premium. Selling above the 50ma…
Bought to Close AAPL OCT 27 2017 160.0 Calls @ .09 (sold for .80)
Sold AAPL NOV 3 2017 160.0 Calls @ 1.80
#ShortStrangles – Booking it at about 50 percent of max…
Bought to Close AVGO NOV 10 2017 240.0/260.0 Strangle @ 3.50 (sold for 6.48)
#ShortPuts – Booked a bunch in this account a couple days ago. Starting to dabble again…
Sold SVXY NOV 17 2017 80.0 Put @ 2.50
Sold SVXY DEC 15 2017 70.0 Put @ 2.65
Sold SVXY JAN 19 2018 60.0 Put @ 3.00
#RocketManHedge – Moving my position over to SPX so selling puts against the SPY hedge experiment to get to even…
Sold SPY NOV 3 2017 253.0 Puts @ .62
#SyntheticShort #Hedge #RocketManHedge – A little hedge out through the beginning of the year…
Synthetic short stock with a protective call. 45.00 debit with max loss of 50.00:
Sold SPX JAN 19 2018 2570.0 Call @ 41.50
Bought SPX JAN 19 2018 2570.0 Put @ 48.00
Bought SPX JAN 19 2018 2575.0 Call @ 38.50
Need to collect 4.15 per week to cover the max loss so:
Sold SPX NOV 3 2017 2530.0 Put @ 5.90
This gives 40 to 50 points of downside protection for minimal (or no) cost…
How’s this sound for putting on decent protection for very little risk. Synthetic short stock with a protective call in SPX using Jan 2018. This would provide nice protection through the end of year.
(Keep in mind you could just buy a put instead but I feel like I could use the other positions somehow to help make a little extra if the market doesn’t fall…just not sure how yet. 🙂 )
The trade:
SPX Jan 2018 synthetic short stock at 2570 and buy a 2575 call for upside protection and sell weeklies to finance…
1. Net debit on this would be about 41.50 with another 5 points of upside risk for 46.50 max loss.
2. Trade would run for 12 weeks.
3. Would need to collect 3.90 of weekly premium to breakeven (assuming max loss)
4. Currently 3.90 weekly premium is at about 2515 so 55 points of downside room.
5. The weekly put could also be rolled down for additional gain if we do implode.
6. Continue selling 50 points below every week and trade does no worse than even while continually carrying 50 points of protection.
7. What’s the risk? Market rallies hard early in the trade forcing the 50 point sale to be so high that you make nothing on the drop. Of course you still have the short term hedge since longs were doing great during the rally.
Comments, criticisms, etc.?
#SyntheticStock – He added this today. I like it. He went 30/30/25 for the LEAPs. I’m using 32/32/27. Same risk and same reward for much lower debit entry.
Synthetic stock in Jan 2019 for 1.03 credit:
Sold MGM JAN 18 2019 32.0 Puts @ 4.66
Bought MGM JAN 18 2019 32.0 Calls @ 3.63
Using the 1.03 to buy the disaster puts:
Bought MGM JAN 18 2019 27.0 Puts @ 2.42
In the 2019 position for 1.39 debit. Disaster put is 5 points under the synthetic so max risk in the entire trade is 6.39. Should easily sell 4 to 5 times that much in front month weeklies if MGM goes nowhere and the trade runs the full 65 weeks.
So:
Sold MGM NOV 3 2017 31.0 Calls @ .44
#ShortCalls – Rolling out and up and pairing with the bull put spreads that I had previously reverse rolled some short calls into…
Rolled SVXY JAN 19 2018 120.0 Calls to JUN 15 2018 155.0 Calls @ .70 credit
#CoveredCalls – Next week using this week’s high as a sell point. Stock looking weak so staying aggressive with the sales. #Earnings on Nov 8th…
Bought to Close REGN OCT 27 2017 450.0 Call @ .30 (sold for 3.50)
Sold REGN NOV 3 2017 437.5 Call @ 4.50
#LongCallDiagonals #Earnings – To give my iron flies a little encouragement, I’m rolling down the front month call on the diagonal trade to hedge a little.
Rolled AMZN OCT 27 2017 1000.0 Call to OCT 27 2017 990.0 Call @ 3.55 credit (premium received now 11.75)
#Earnings – An idea from John Carter last night. Playing it bullish with a nice even pin at 1000.00. He said the selloff yesterday was a perfect opportunity for this so giving it a shot. Risk 75 to make 925 but very directional.
Sold AMZN OCT 27 2017 990.0/1000.0/1010.0 Iron Flies @ 9.25
#ShortPuts #IRA – These have barely moved today so booking them and hopefully getting to re-load a little nearer term.
Bought to Close SVXY NOV 17 2017 65.0 Put @ .75 (sold for 2.63)
Bought to Close SVXY DEC 15 2017 35.0 Puts @ .38 (sold for 1.15)
Bought to Close SVXY JAN 19 2018 35.0 Put @ .85 (sold for 2.45)
Bought to Close SVXY MAR 16 2018 35.0 Put @ 1.30 (sold for 3.25)
#ShortStrangles and possibly #PerpetualRollingStrangles – Haven’t been in this one in awhile. Finally showing some two sided action…
Sold EWZ DEC 15 2017 40.0/44.0 Strangles @ 1.55
#FallingKnife #IRA #Dividends – Maybe a decent place to buy it if she keeps falling…
Sold KMB APR 20 2018 105.0 Put @ 3.00
#Earnings – Trying something a little different. Instead of waiting until the day of the announcement I’m selling a starter position in case this thing breaks higher. I’ll add if it drops and then decide later if I’m gonna sell the call side.
Selling the 50 ma the week of earnings…
Sold NVDA NOV 10 2017 180.0 Put @ 2.30
#ShortStrangles – Taking a little off and looking out to #Earnings week for a new position…
Bought to Close NVDA NOV 3 2017 180.0/215.0 Strangles @ .63 (sold for 5.11)
#Earnings ?? – As usual the date changed over the weekend. TOS estimating the 26th now but IV still reflects their original date of Nov 1st. Who knows? Nothing on the WYNN website yet…
40 years ago…
http://www.rollingstone.com/music/features/remembering-lynyrd-skynyrds-plane-crash-ronnie-van-zant-w509500
#ShortCalls – Here’s how I’m handling my short calls that get in trouble. Well before they get in the money (usually as they reach about 3 times more than they sold for) I roll them out to put spreads.
Rolled SVXY JAN 19 2018 117.5 Calls to JUN 15 2018 120.0/105.0 Bull Put Spreads @ .10 credit
So now what?
1. We continue up and life is good (except for the next batch I have to roll)
2. We tank and I own SVXY. By using spreads it really doesn’t matter how low it goes. In fact, the lower the better. Wherever it ends up I’ll be getting the stock at a basis 12.25 above wherever it’s trading at the time. (sold the original call for 2.75 and the spread is 15 wide)
#Earnings #ShortStrangles – Finally out of the entire position. Great earnings day in this and ISRG…decks are clear for next week now.
Bought to Close ATHN OCT 20 2017 106.0/129.0 Strangles @ .25 (sold for 2.35)
#ShortStrangles – Rolling these again. Sold against Nov monthly 130 calls…
Rolled WYNN OCT 20 2017 152.5 Puts to NOV 3 2017 152.5 Puts @ 1.46 credit
#Earnings #ShortStrangles – Pushing the limits on the call side so still watching. I’ll switch to puts and roll it out if it stays strong. Closing the puts while waiting…
Bought to Close ATHN OCT 20 2017 106.0 Puts @ .05
#ShortPuts #IRA – Thanks @jsd501 !
Sold CELG APR 20 2018 100.0 Put @ 2.30
Sold CELG APR 20 2018 95.0 Put @ 1.60
#Earnings #ShortStrangles – Closing this while I’ve got a chance. Last time I did an earnings trade on this one I pushed my luck on the call side and had to fight it for 6 months…
Bought to Close ISRG OCT 20 2017 340.0/375.0 Strangles @ .85 (sold for 3.55)
#Earnings #ShortStrangles – First time ever in this ticker. Expected move of 9.75 but seems to exceed the move a lot of the time. Staying small…
Sold ATHN OCT 20 2017 106.0/129.0 Strangles @ 2.35
#Earnings #ShortStrangles – Got out of this a couple weeks ago. Had so much fun I’m heading back in…
Sold ISRG OCT 20 2017 340.0/375.0 Strangles @ 3.55 (expected move of 14.05)
ATHN – Big IV
ISRG – Probably selling some puts…it’s a lot more reasonable after the 3 for 1 split.
PYPL – Watching but not sure…very extended like many others
SKX – Cheap with bigIV so maybe worth a shot…love the shoes. Golf shoes, regular tennis shoes, and work shoes all SKX. 🙂 🙂
VZ – Yuck…no premium
#ShortStrangles – WYNN does this nearly every quarter with the earnings date. I’ve got puts I need to roll and TOS estimates earnings on Nov 1st. Last quarter I rolled based on that and then they moved it up a week and I was instantly losing on the roll as the IV popped. Looks to me based on the last few dates it will be next week and TOS will be wrong again. Would be nice if it changes before I’m forced to roll…
#CoveredCalls – Sold TEVA NOV 3 2017 15.5 Calls @ .32
