Hope everyone had a wonderful and prosperous trading 2025!

I closed all my positions Friday through today except 2 to make taxes easier.

Great year trading, 28.4 total portfolio return (401k, IRAs, Roth etc. and I can’t trade most of these) and 71.2% returns for the 2 trading accounts. It was 69% last Friday but I just closed out some SPX rhinos today pushing it over 70%. 2024 was a bad trading year and ironically that was a 28.4% trading return and a little less, 24% for the entire portfolio.

All from trading about 6-7 strategies repeatedly. In order of profitable to least profitable:
1. BWB/Rhino trades on SPX, RUT, and ETFs
2. Double calendars/diagonals but converted to nested iron condor once profits develop. This creates an iron condor with no risk to both sides or if I have a directional bias I can skew it.
3. Asymmetric iron condors (debit spread imbedded in iron condor in specific ratios then hedged to upside or downside)
4. Combos (all of the above combined usually as recovery tactics)
5. Strangles on futures
6. Jade lizards/naked puts/skewed butterflies/skewed iron condors
7. Hedging other positions using futures such as /ES for an SPX position that needs adjusting

No 0 DTE trading unless I saw a really good opportunity. Maybe 8 times all year. And no stocks other than what is in the 401k.

Having almost everything hedged prevents the big losses I had in 2015 (Chinese Yuan devaluation), 2018 (SVXY implosion), and 2020 (Covid). In fact when the market drops quickly and dramatically I cash in winning lottery tickets. Often large enough gains to offset any losses on the IRAs/401K for total portfolio hedging.

With that said I am throwing this out there and no hard feelings if no one interested. I no longer trade professionally for Traders Reserve (these are tactics I could not share there as they were too complex for our subscribers) but would be willing to pass along some of these tactics as long as no one tries to benefit commercially from the information. I run my own money like a mini-hedge fund. Interested in a group webinar/discussion where we can all share ideas and tactics?

I also would consider a pooled asset account if anyone is interested in that? Would need help from someone who is an expert in taxes and how to structure that. I know Interactive Brokers has a family and friends account which allows up to 15 accounts controlled as one.

Anyone know how to set up a corporation that could then pool assets to help control taxes?

Open for discussion, I have Fridays off so those would be good days for collaboration.

May 2026 be AWESOME for everyone and everything, not just trading!!

Since this is a sharing platform posting a trade I put on yesterday. Standard BWB 200 point range on SPX with a 5 point offset or a total margin of 10k on 10 contracts. Nice flat T + zero line and because initially delta negative I make money right away if the market tanks.

Today market is up and continuing with the discussion below about getting run over to the upside I am adding 10 calendars above the market. Puts are cheaper but calls allow you to diagonalize to the upside if it keeps moving. More likely I just add some additional calendar spreads. Do not hold until expiration, I am usually taking 5-20% profits on these in 1-2 weeks. Sometimes like this week it took 3 weeks to hit the 10% range.

Summary, I start with a BWB or a calendar then depending on what the market does I convert to a rhino trade of some sort. Rinse and repeat every 1-2 weeks. Documented 496% returns from Oct. 2020 until now. Actually up a few more percentage last few weeks but have not done the calculations yet.

Losing trades to the downside I move half of the center strikes down with a vertical roll.

After the adjustment have an upside protected rhino

Since switching to this and a few other styles of trading my returns have been consistent, crushes the market, and I can sleep well at night because everything is hedged. No more blowing up accounts chasing returns.

Cheers, Chris

Typical summer trading. Relentless push higher on light volume with occasional severe volatility shocks.
I don’t think this is the smart money buying all time highs on light volume and largely bad news. Hopium for a rate cut? Doubt that is happening when inflation is still high and gas is at $4 a gallon locally and we tend to be on the cheaper side locally as our oil and gas comes straight off big ships. Trade appropriately!

But still frustrating that I have to adjust trades around the dumb money that is late to the party. Oh well, I can take their money if they are going to give it away so freely.

Hope everyone is having a good summer and staying cool! We bike raced Tuesday night and the heat index was 107, lots of fluids kept everyone going.

BWB with calendar or directional adjustments are still doing well as long as you keep the expirations off FOMC and CPI weeks. On those weeks the market makers flip the volatility skew and then only profitable on expiration day and very close to the end of the day. Much better to make 10% weekly and get out way before the gamma effects kick in.

Cheers!

If there is ever something that makes you realize the market is irrational, today is it. Market likes tariffs??!! WTF

Amazon posted something this morning using a bikini as an example of the inflation of tariffs. Yesterday it retailed for $116. Today due to tariffs the same Bikini is $323.

We live near the beach, does this mean no bikinis this year 😦

Still profitable for the year but gave back a lot of the gains for the year.

Fibonacci approaching a 268% retracement. My thought is if that holds we might have a good entry point. If not next stop down is probably around 4950 as the closest round number. Actual number probably 4963.

Cash is a position, trade smart!

Actually I am trying to throw on some SPX butterflies but there is no liquidity and most the $5 increment options have not traded so I cannot get a fill anyway.

Just out of curiosity stuck a Fibonacci retracement on the daily. The 161.8 retracement is sitting in the middle of the daily candle that is forming today on /ES/SPY/SPX.

Bottom? We won’t know until it is in the rear view mirror. As I mentioned yesterday tread lightly but there are also some opportunities developing for those if us that think a little longer term. Meaning weeks, months, and years, not 930 am to 4 pm like the day traders.

Plus premiums are inflated!!

Trade smarter 🙂

Looks like people buying the market now, close to all time highs are not the smart money. Not saying short the market but hopefully we get some sort of a pull back.

Also not to get political but we have a lot of conflicting data at the moment.
You think inflation has been high since Covid watch what happens if the tariffs go through. Also if ICE starts deportations we are not going to have any workers left.

My hope is for grid lock, that’s what the market likes best.

Hope everyone is doing well trading in the New Year!

Harvesting profits on the asymmetric iron condors. Have these in RUT, SPY, SPX, and SMH. Most were placed about 3-4 weeks ago. Now closing and resetting. about $1200-1300 profits per trade and closing 6 of them today.

Here’s what they look like

So here is an example of what I have been working on the last few years. Has taken a while to get the structure and ratios correct. Profits develop slowly but there is a huge range that you can have profits and if you notice no risk to the upside. Also to the downside SPX has to fall another 250 points before I lose any money.

You start with a butterfly, regular or slightly broken wing butterfly. Then I go long a call to the upside so that the positions starts out delta neutral. 30 DTE. Then you let the market move. This one took and adjustment about 2 weeks ago and another last week. Theta accelerates as we get closer to expiration. Has been 4-6 k daily since Friday and as you can see I am developing profit of about 4k today. There is potential for another 11-44k if I held all the way to expiration but be aware now that Schwab is messing up TOS I usually get phone calls and multiple warnings to close the position by noon to 1 EST. Even if I have a winning position and want the “cash settled close” they will not let me hold it to market close. They will close it as a market order and you lose thousands.

Adjustments are either verticals, adjusting the short or long strikes, or in this case I added 2 calendar spreads. To the downside we can pull in the long lower put wing on the butterfly.

Here is what it looks like from the close today until expiration Friday. The trick is don’t be super greedy with these. You have a 10-70%profit take it. Don’t hold out for another 10k if you already have 23k in profits. Take the money and run. I will probably close this at 10K profits (total risk around 26k between the 10k margin and the cost of the butterfly, long call, and calendars). But if it is still dead center all week I may try carrying this one into Friday.

As soon as it closes I open the next 30 DTE cycle. Rinse and repeat, don’t have to watch the market all day, adjustments are as needed not all over the place. Have a life and make a bunch trading. The ideal trade, only time will tell 🙂

Cannot get decent fills on SPX so I am taking a chance on a bottom here and try again to close the butterflies next week. Still have 14 DTE left. If it doesn’t work out I can go flat next week by converting my BWB to a BWIC (broken wing iron condor). It does not confirm profits but lowers the risk.

The prices are $4.05 wide on the bid-ask. No point in losing money because the market maker prices suck right now.

Market tagged the third and final pivot point almost to the tick. Hopefully that is the bottom and now I can do some damage control.

Hopefully the bottom is in for the day, hate adjusting positions at the lowest point because then always get the whipsaw.

Just FYI, now that Schwab is gradually destroying TOS I have had 4 phone calls this morning saying I need to close my SPX positions by 2 pm or they will do it for me.

Whatever happened to cash settled. I actually want them to expire because they are winning trades and I want all the time value.

Bummer but be aware!

Damage control: closed my SPX butterflies at minor losses ($2900 avg over 5 accounts).

Adding long puts to my XOP and XBI Jade lizards. Just to control margin, only paper losses at this point. Will manage as calendars/diagonals now.

Stay flexible! Not trading anything else today but I see some trades setting up with the bump in the VIX.

Today daughter is home from college and she lives away year round now so we are either going SUP surfing or flat water paddle after lunch. Sounds like she is leaning towards flat water.

August is usually the most volatile month of the year. It is keeping up with history so far 🙂

Algo says the bottom may be in for the day, at least on the 5 minute. Waiting until I see it on the 15 to take advantage of selling a bunch of premium and rolling options.

Market finally woke up from it’s several month binge. I really hate one way markets. Much easier to trade bi-directional markets when income trading.

Totally flat, only my 401k has some open ETF long positions. Feels weird, first time totally flat since 2004 but wife said NO TRADING on vacation…….I will miss it!!!

Going flat for 2 weeks as we will be in France on a well deserved vacation. I may trade once I get over there but at least wanted to be flat for the first part as anytime I cannot access the market (airplane, train, deep in the woods) the market does some stupid stuff. I try to learn something everyday but this was the hardest lesson.

Anyway, over the last few years I have been perfecting butterfly tactics with adjustments when needed and am currently working on asymmetric iron condors. If interested I will post them when I get back. Not as a “service style” but you are all skilled traders. I could just post a screenshot and you can trade it from there.

We charged 5k a year for the service and my official results are about 168% returns since October 2022 when we started it. Better returns in higher VIX but still works now. Just $500 profits on 10 SPX contracts instead of 1-3k when the VIX is over 20.

But I don’t want to overload posting so if no interest no hard feelings, I trade it myself anyway.

But I will say from the professional side it was a lot of work and not enough return and even if we gave them explicit instructions people would still screw it up. I know those here will not.

Have a great few weeks and will catch up when we are back in the USA!

All of you that trade SPX have probably noticed this but since the advent of the daily expirations the market makers try to hold onto that time value until the last day/minutes. They also manipulate IV of the individual options. We watch it on the algo.

1 of my SPX butterflies is solidly under the tent and has huge profit potential. I have been in the trade 20 days but until today it was showing negative. 6k of that theta decay finally transferred today but there is still another 11k sitting there.

The way to force the time value in SPX is to hold into the close and force them to pay you the time value. Unfortunately since Schwab took over TOS they will not let me hold until the close. I get messages throughout the day saying if you do not close it their risk department will. Often at a market order.

Tastytrade allows me to do that as long as they can tell I am watching it. In an ideal world I have taken my profits long before this but occasionally have to carry one of these into expiration. But if you do watch the gamma, it can flip your profits to losses quickly.

Not an issue with stock or ETF options as you can just force exercise to keep all the time value. Only an issue in the indexes because you cannot really own the index other than through futures but with futures you can force exercise of the futures.

Hello everyone! It’s been a while since I have posted but have been watching from the side lines. I joined the professional side of trading a while ago but resigned recently. Have one trade left to close then free and clear. Won’t bore you with details but from the publishing side I could not trade how I wanted, it was a lot of work, others made a lot of money off me but I did not get much in return, and it took up most of my Fridays off.

I can trade my own accounts (7) in about 1-2 hours per week but for the service with trade write-ups, answering questions about trade write up, answering questions about why people put the order in wrong (even though it was very specific) took up several more hours. Took away my day off which was not what I wanted if not being paid well for it.

Anyway, I love the group trading idea. We all make better decisions, more money, and share ideas that some of us may not have thought about. Plus with multiple eyes on the market we can all benefit from others seeing opportunities we may have otherwise missed.

Not going to post daily, still working as busy family nurse practitioner but I have boiled my trading down to about 13 tactics and they are all very effective. Some better in high volatility, others in low, and some are all terrain.

Butterflies/dragonflies (my name for them in the service and I am taking it with me), asymmetric iron condors and box cars, Jade lizards, Strangles/straddles, 211 trade (basically a ratioed jade lizard with a hedge), diagonals/calendars often multi strike, ratio spreads, synthetics (straight up and hedged), ZEBRHS (zero extrinsic back ratio hedged synthetic straddle, and Time Zone/time twister trades. Took a few years to tweak these so they worked for my style of trading and perfecting them with real money, no paper trading. I had to feel the pain when I lost to figure out how to repair it.

90% of these trades are hedged so no SVXY blow ups like in Feb 2018 and if they do go against me easy to adjust/hedge.

I also trade everything except Forex and Crypto (basically money laundering device). No offense to those that do but crypto is only supported by the next sucker who will buy it. Although a friend just cashed in 15 bitcoins for about 1.05 million so lucky him as he mined them early.

I am still working with Quant Culture on the professional side but I don’t have any trading rooms at the moment and if I ever do again it will be alert only service. Not going to waste time trying to fix trades others messed up. If they want to put their own twist on it fine, but don’t ask me to fix it when it blows up. But I resigned from Traders Reserve. May still collaborate with them but not running a trading service again unless I get at least 50% royalties.

Hope everyone is doing well financially and is also healthy. Catch up soon!

FOMO, irrational exuberance, when are people going to learn buy low sell high or short high and buy low. Everyone piling in when the market is more expensive than it has ever been………

Bloomberg had something on the other day that said the smart money is already positioning for a pull back for what it is worth. But I am not going short until it is established.

Whats the famous quote, the market can be irrational longer than I can be solvent 🙂

Here’s the link to the 21 DTE management research I mentioned earlier.

There is a second part and some other videos related to it. Like I said around pages 7-12 on market measure reruns.

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/ways-of-managing-trades-05-09-2019

The new commissions at TOS kicked in and are nice. Less money out 🙂

That dead cat bounce did not stay in the air long. I will be adjusting trades to neutral to bearish stance or at least to trades that won’t get killed with whipsaws.

Have a lot of trades ITM that expire this week and next week.