Jeff 6:42 am on Thursday, September 3, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

AVGO earnings analysis

#Earnings $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 4, 2020 AC +2.65%
March 12, 2020 AC +7.05%
Dec. 12, 2019 AC -3.77%
Sept. 12, 2019 AC -3.41%
June 13, 2019 AC -5.56% Biggest DOWN
March 14, 2019 AC +8.23% Biggest UP
Dec. 6, 2018 AC +0.58%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%

Avg (+ or -) 4.17%
Bias 0.20%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 365.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 340.68 to 389.32 (+/- 6.7%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 349.80 to 380.20
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 334.96 to 395.04
Based on DOWN max only (-5.6%): 344.71

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 12:25 pm on Wednesday, September 2, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

CRWD earnings

#Earnings. Aggressive put spread: Sold to Open $CRWD Sept 4th 150/145 put spreads for 3.20.

Jeff 11:05 am on Wednesday, September 2, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

FIVE earnings

#Earnings Sold to Open $FIVE Sept 4th 107/112-135/140 condors for 1.661 (avg price). Bullish lean based on past performance, and market’s direction.

Jeff 6:53 am on Wednesday, September 2, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Sept 2nd 3560/3580 call spreads for .95. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10. Stop hit at the open.

Jeff 11:26 am on Tuesday, September 1, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), SPX7dteLong ( 350 )

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sept 8th 3495/3515-3525-3545 condors for 16.10, with SPX at 3519.

#spx1dte

Jeff 7:02 am on Monday, August 31, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

ZM earnings analysis

#Earnings $ZM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

June 2, 2020 AC +7.58%
March 4, 2020 AC +7.02%
Dec. 5, 2019 AC -9.94%
Sept. 6, 2019 BO -7.85%
June 6, 2019 AC +18.40%

Avg (+ or -) 10.16%
Bias 3.04%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 305.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 267.52 to 342.48 (+/- 12.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 5 quarters: 274.02 to 335.98
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.4%): 248.88 to 361.12
Based on DOWN max only (-9.9%): 274.68

NOTE: 5-day results show reversals into the negative for the last two quarters!

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:46 am on Monday, August 31, 2020
Tags: SPX7dteLong ( 350 )

SPX 7

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sept 4th 3480/3500-3510/3530 condors for 15.90, with SPX at 3506.

Jeff 12:31 pm on Friday, August 28, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 ), SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), supercharger ( 160 )

SPX trades and expirations

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 31st 3425/3445-3555/3575 condors for .95, IV 10.16%, SPX 3507, deltas -.07, +.06.

Expiring: Aug 28th 3400/3420-3550/3570 condors , sold yesterday for .90.

#Supercharger expiring: $SPX Aug 28th 3400/3425 call spreads for max credit of 20.00, bought yesterday for 18.80.

#Earnings Expired at full loss: $ANF 10.5 puts, bought Wednesday for .85.

Jeff 12:18 pm on Friday, August 28, 2020
Tags: SPX7dteLong ( 350 )

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 31st 3445/3465 call spreads for 18.75. Condors bought for 15.30 on Tuesday. Will look to sell the put side for a buck or less or keep it as a hedge. But it seems hedges are no longer necessary. We are never going down again, ever.

Jeff 12:49 pm on Thursday, August 27, 2020
Tags: Jobs ( 134 )

Econ Calendar for week of 8/31/2020

#Jobs report on Friday.

Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

Jeff 12:36 pm on Thursday, August 27, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), SPX7dteLong ( 350 ), supercharger ( 160 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3400/3420-3550/3570 condors for .90, IV 16.37%, SPX 3497, deltas -.06,+.06.

My put side are the same strikes as my #Supercharger bought earlier. Of course, call Superchargers have the exact same profile and risk as Put credit spreads. So I’m doubled up on the down side risk.

#spx7dtelong

Jeff 10:41 am on Thursday, August 27, 2020
Tags: SPX7dteLong ( 350 )

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sept 2nd 3460/3480-3490/3510 condors for 16.45, with SPX at 3483. The price on these went up about a buck after the VIX spike. It was in the mid-15’s this morning.

Jeff 6:44 am on Thursday, August 27, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), supercharger ( 160 )

SPXtra

#SPX1dte Bought to Open $SPX Aug 28th 3400/3420 call spreads for 18.80, with SPX at 3482. This is a result of mistakenly entering the wrong strikes on a spread… but then I saw that I could make over a buck in one day, pretty much a no-brainer to buy it.

#supercharger

Jeff 1:26 pm on Wednesday, August 26, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Rolled the dice on a favorable close and lost. Condors sold for .90, ITM expiration costs me 8.93.

I’m probably going to sell an aggressive call spread soon, but imma wait for now.

Jeff 11:25 am on Wednesday, August 26, 2020

VIX shooting higher

…as the indices reach unreal heights. I left my desk for a couple hours this morning after the open was pretty calm. As it turned out, the SPX rose steadily the whole time I was away, so when I returned my short call had been hit. Tried to stop out but was not filled, not getting deep ITM. Missed my stop point so I’m without oars at the moment.

Jeff 10:56 am on Wednesday, August 26, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

ANF earnings analysis

#Earnings $ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 28, 2020 BO -11.11%
March 4, 2020 BO +8.98%
Nov. 26, 2019 BO -2.57%
Aug. 29, 2019 BO -15.09%
May 29, 2019 BO -26.46% Biggest DOWN
March 6, 2019 BO +20.37%
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +20.91%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO +11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +23.90% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +17.06%

Avg (+ or -) 15.35%
Bias 1.84%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 11.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 9.88 to 12.62 (+/- 12.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 9.52 to 12.98
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.5%): 8.27 to 14.23
Based on UP max only (+23.9%): 13.94

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:12 am on Wednesday, August 26, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

SPLK earnings analysis

#Earnings $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 21, 2020 AC +12.73%
March 4, 2020 AC -9.10% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2019 AC +10.76%
Aug. 21, 2019 AC -7.83%
May 23, 2019 AC -7.32%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -0.90%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%

Avg (+ or -) 9.52%
Bias 4.46%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 215.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 197.02 to 232.98 (+/- 8.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 194.54 to 235.46
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 176.54 to 253.46
Based on DOWN max only (-9.1%): 195.44

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:09 am on Wednesday, August 26, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

NTAP earnings analysis

#Earnings $NTAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 27, 2020 AC -4.64%
Feb. 12, 2020 AC -9.27%
Nov. 13, 2019 AC +3.17%
Aug. 14, 2019 AC +3.93%
May 22, 2019 AC -8.10%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -5.47%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC -11.72% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 15, 2018 AC -3.58%
May 23, 2018 AC +1.93%
Feb. 14, 2018 AC -4.89%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +15.91% Biggest UP
Aug. 16, 2017 AC -6.72%

Avg (+ or -) 6.61%
Bias -2.45%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 42.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 38.61 to 45.39 (+/- 8.1%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 39.22 to 44.78
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.9%): 35.32 to 48.68
Based on DOWN max only (-11.7%): 37.08

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 12:07 pm on Tuesday, August 25, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), SPX7dteLong ( 350 )

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 31st 3415/3435-3445/3465 condors for 15.30, with SPX at 3439.

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 3370/3390-3470/3490 condors for .90, IV 10.9%, SPX 3438, deltas -.07,+.07

Jeff 6:49 am on Tuesday, August 25, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

CRM earnings analysis

#Earnings $CRM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 28, 2020 AC -3.48% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 25, 2020 AC -1.32%
Dec. 3, 2019 AC -3.18%
Aug. 22, 2019 AC +2.24%
June 4, 2019 AC +5.05%
March 4, 2019 AC -0.96%
Nov. 27, 2018 AC +10.27% Biggest UP
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC +1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC +2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81%
Aug. 22, 2017 AC +0.12%

Avg (+ or -) 2.90%
Bias 0.82%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 191.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 198.50 to 226.50 (+/- 6.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 206.34 to 218.66
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.3%): 190.68 to 234.32
Based on DOWN max only (-3.5%): 205.11

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:42 am on Tuesday, August 25, 2020
Tags: SPX7dte ( 38 )

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dte Sold to close on GTC order in premarket: $SPX Aug 26th 3370/3390 call spreads for 19.00. Condors bought for 16.00 last Thursday. Will look to get some pennies for the put side, too.

Jeff 1:02 pm on Monday, August 24, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), SPX7dteLong ( 350 )

SPXpire

#SPX7dteLong Expiring ITM: long $SPX Aug 24th 3395/3415 call spreads for max credit of 20.00. Bought for 15.05 last Tuesday.

#SPX1dte Expiring worthless: short Aug 24th 3320/3340-3440/3460 condors, sold Friday for .90.

Jeff 10:41 am on Monday, August 24, 2020
Tags: SPX7dte ( 38 )

SPX 7-dte (5-dte, actually)

#SPX7dte Bought to open $SPX Aug 28th 3395/3415-3425/3445 condors for 15.25, with SPX at 3421.

Jeff 9:49 am on Monday, August 24, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

PANW earnings analysis

#Earnings $PANW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 21, 2020 AC +3.67%
Feb. 24, 2020 AC -17.01% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 25, 2019 AC -11.95%
Sept. 4, 2019 AC +5.76%
May 29, 2019 AC -5.11%
Feb. 26, 2019 AC +8.20%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC -1.76%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +3.28%
June 4, 2018 BO -0.52%
Feb. 26, 2018 AC +2.31%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC +4.82%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +10.53% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 6.24%
Bias 0.19%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 191.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 246.70 to 285.30 (+/- 7.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 249.61 to 282.61
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.0%): 220.75 to 311.25
Based on UP max only (+10.5%): 294.01

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 4:49 pm on Friday, August 21, 2020

Episode 13 – The Hack is Back

The Hack is Back; our favorite millennial (Kenichi Hackman) returns with new music picks; Jeff tries to Pick that Flick; and the Go-Go’s rock a new doc and new song. Plus, we preview The Pick 100. More details, links, and playlists at https://thepickcast.com

Jeff 12:30 pm on Friday, August 21, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#Spx1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 24th 3320/3340-3440/3460 condors for .90, IV 10.25%, SPX 3398, delats: -.09, +.05.

Expiring: Aug 21st 3315/3335-3425/3445 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00.

Jeff 12:00 pm on Friday, August 21, 2020
Tags: SPX7dteLong ( 350 )

SPX 7-dte closed

#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX Aug 21st 3390/3410 call spreads for 8.25. Put side sold for 4.45 yesterday. Bought for 15.20 on Monday, closed for 12.70 total. Need to break out of this consolidation to get these back into profit mode.

Jeff 10:32 am on Friday, August 21, 2020

Econ Calendar for week of 8/24/20

Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

Jeff 7:58 am on Friday, August 21, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 ), LongStraddle ( 59 )

FL closed

#Earnings Sold to close $FL Aug 21st 27 #LongStraddle for .75. Bought yesterday for 2.03. The only time profit was available was the open but unfortunately I was not paying close enough attention.

Jeff 12:50 pm on Thursday, August 20, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), SPX7dte ( 38 )

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 21st (PM) 3315/3335-3425/3445 condors for 1.00, IV 12.74%, SPX 3390, deltas -.07, +.07.

#spx7dte

Jeff 11:10 am on Thursday, August 20, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 ), JeffFollow, LongStraddle ( 59 )

FL earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $FL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 22, 2020 BO -8.49%
Feb. 28, 2020 BO +8.01%
Nov. 22, 2019 BO -2.91%
Aug. 23, 2019 BO -18.91%
May 24, 2019 BO -15.95%
March 1, 2019 BO +5.96%
Nov. 20, 2018 AC +14.90%
Aug. 24, 2018 BO -9.17%
May 25, 2018 BO +20.15%
March 2, 2018 BO -12.72%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +28.16% Biggest UP
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -27.92% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 14.44%
Bias -1.57%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 27.15 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 25.04 to 29.26 (+/- 7.8%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 23.23 to 31.07
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (28.2%): 19.50 to 34.80
Based on DOWN max only (-27.9%): 19.57

Open to requests for other symbols.

#jefffollow, #longstraddle

Jeff 10:57 am on Thursday, August 20, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

DE earnings analysis

#Earnings $DE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 22, 2020 BO -1.47%
Feb. 21, 2020 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
Nov. 27, 2019 BO -4.29%
Aug. 16, 2019 BO +3.84%
May 17, 2019 BO -7.65% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 15, 2019 BO -2.11%
Nov. 21, 2018 BO +2.42%
Aug. 17, 2018 BO +2.35%
May 18, 2018 BO +5.74%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO +1.57%
Nov. 22, 2017 BO +4.32%
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -5.37%

Avg (+ or -) 4.01%
Bias 0.53%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 191.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 183.41 to 198.59 (+/- 4.0%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 183.34 to 198.66
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-7.7%): 176.39 to 205.61
Based on UP max only (+7.0%): 204.35

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 9:41 am on Thursday, August 20, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

NVDA closed

#Earnings BTC $NVDA 455/460-525/530 iron condors for .20. Sold yesterday for 1.70.

Jeff 6:43 am on Thursday, August 20, 2020
Tags: SPX7dteLong ( 350 )

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Oen $SPX Aug 26th 3340/3360-3370/3390 condors for 16.00, with SPX at 3363.

Jeff 1:01 pm on Wednesday, August 19, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), SPX7dte ( 38 )

SPX dead zone

#SPX7dte First time I’ve ended in the dead zone of one of these long condors. Got a dollar for the put side this morning but zero for the call side. My mistake was forgetting the Fed minutes were today, which meant I should have closed with a small profit before 2pm ET. Loss of 14.80.

#spx1dte

Jeff 7:04 am on Wednesday, August 19, 2020
Tags: SPX7dteLong ( 350 )

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 19th 3370/3350 put spreads for 1.00. Banking on the call side for my expiration profit. Condors bought last Thursday for 15.80.

Jeff 7:02 am on Wednesday, August 19, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

NVDA IC

#Earnings Sold to Open $NVDA Aug 21st 455/460-525/530 iron condors for 1.70, with stock at 487.30.
I’m ignoring the -18% outlier and going just outside the remaining max moves.

Jeff 6:59 am on Wednesday, August 19, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

BABA earnings analysis

#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 22, 2020 BO -5.87%
Feb. 13, 2020 BO -1.76%
Nov. 1, 2019 BO -0.11%
Aug. 15, 2019 BO +3.02%
May 15, 2019 BO +1.57%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO +6.33% Biggest UP
Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%

Avg (+ or -) 3.09%
Bias -0.22%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 258.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 244.69 to 271.31 (+/- 5.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 250.03 to 265.97
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.3%): 241.67 to 274.33
Based on DOWN max only (-5.9%): 242.78

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:53 am on Wednesday, August 19, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

NVDA earnings analysis

#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 21, 2020 AC +2.86%
Feb. 13, 2020 AC +7.02%
Nov. 14, 2019 AC -2.66%
Aug. 15, 2019 AC +7.25% Biggest UP
May 16, 2019 AC -2.28%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%

Avg (+ or -) 5.58%
Bias -0.43%, small negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 488.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 454.74 to 521.26 (+/- 6.8%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 460.77 to 515.23
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-18.8%): 396.50 to 579.50
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 523.38

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 12:27 pm on Tuesday, August 18, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 19th 3315/3335-3425/3445 condors for .90, IV 12.12%, SPX 3390, deltas: -.06,+.07

Jeff 11:47 am on Tuesday, August 18, 2020
Tags: SPX7dte ( 38 )

SPX 7 dte

#SPX7dte Bought to Open $SPX Aug 24th 3365/3385-3395/3415 condors for 15.05, with SPX at 3391. These are getting riskier with lowering VIX and consolidation, but they are also getting cheaper.

Jeff 6:39 am on Tuesday, August 18, 2020
Tags: DoubeCalendars, Earnings ( 3,111 )

WMT & KSS closed

#Earnings Sold to close $WMT 21Aug/28Aug 135 #DoubeCalendars for 1.612. Bought yesterday for .942.

Sold to close $KSS Aug 21`st 124 puts for 3.50. Bought yesterday for 1.70.

Excellent open for both trades.

Jeff 1:02 pm on Monday, August 17, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), SPX7dte ( 38 )

SPX trades

#SPX7dte Expired ITM for 17.09 credit: $SPX Aug 17th 3365/3385 call spreads. Condors bought last Monday for 16.05, so profit of 1.04. At the mercy of the market for the last few minutes.

#SPX1dte Expired worthless: Aug 17th 3290/3310-3410/3420 condors, sold Friday for 1.00.

Jeff 12:44 pm on Monday, August 17, 2020
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,111 )

WMT earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $WMT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 19, 2020 BO -2.12%
Feb. 18, 2020 BO +1.47%
Nov. 14, 2019 BO -0.27%
Aug. 15, 2019 BO +6.11%
May 16, 2019 BO +1.43%
Feb. 19, 2019 BO +2.21%
Nov. 15, 2018 BO -1.96%
Aug. 16, 2018 BO +9.33%
May 17, 2018 BO -1.90%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -10.17% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 16, 2017 BO +10.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 17, 2017 BO -1.58%

Avg (+ or -) 4.12%
Bias 1.12%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 135.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): CANNOT ACCESS
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 129.44 to 140.56
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (+10.9%): 120.30 to 149.70
Based on DOWN max only (-10.2%): 121.27

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

Jeff 12:36 pm on Monday, August 17, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

KSS puts

#Earnings Order in to Buy to Open $KSS Aug 21st 24 puts for 1.50, with stock at 23.80. Breakeven at 22.50, which is -5.5% OTM. Strongly negative history, and also Covid. It’s possible negative already baked in and we could see a pop higher, but I’ll also have until Friday for that to fade.

Not filled yet… will raise my bid if necessary before the close.

Jeff 10:15 am on Monday, August 17, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

KSS earnings analysis

#Earnings $KSS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 19, 2020 BO -7.65%
March 3, 2020 BO -2.62%
Nov. 19, 2019 BO -19.48% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 20, 2019 BO -6.88%
May 21, 2019 BO -12.33%
March 5, 2019 BO +7.31% Biggest UP
Nov. 20, 2018 BO -9.22%
Aug. 21, 2018 BO +1.71%
May 22, 2018 BO -7.42%
March 1, 2018 BO -5.05%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +0.93%
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -5.79%

Avg (+ or -) 7.20%
Bias -5.54%, strong negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 23.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): CANNOT ACCESS
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 21.53 to 24.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-19.5%): 18.68 to 27.72
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 24.90

NOTE: 5-day maximum DOWN is the same, while max UP is less, meaning 5-day performance is even more negative for KSS.

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:58 am on Monday, August 17, 2020
Tags: SPX7dteLong ( 350 )

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 21st 3360/3380-3390/3410 condors for 15.20, with SPX at 3382. Lowest price I have paid in this strategy. But if we are going to consolidate near the 3400 level the exits will get tricky.

Jeff 6:44 am on Monday, August 17, 2020

ThinkorSwim slow?

Anyone else having issues with TOS being slow or nonfunctional this morning?

Jeff 1:14 pm on Friday, August 14, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

Earnings expirations

#Earnings
$BIDU and $AMAT iron condors sold yesterday both expired worthless.

Jeff 1:11 pm on Friday, August 14, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), SPX7dte ( 38 )

SPX trades

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 17th 3290/3310-3410/3430 condors for 1.00, IV 9.35%, SPX close: 3372, deltas: -.07,+.07. Exact same strikes and premium as today’s expiration. Filled 11 minutes after the bell.

Expiring: Aug 14th 3290/3310-3410/3430 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00

#SPX7dte Waiting until Monday morning to buy the Aug 21st spread

Jeff 11:52 am on Friday, August 14, 2020
Tags: FOMC ( 20 )

Econ Calendar for week of 8/17/20

#FOMC minutes on Wednesday

Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/

Jeff 12:58 pm on Thursday, August 13, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 14th 3290/3310-3410/3430 condors for 1.00, IV 14.1%, SPX 3373, deltas, -.06, +.07

Jeff 12:33 pm on Thursday, August 13, 2020
Tags: SPX7dteLong ( 350 )

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 14th 3335/3315 put spreads for 1.35. Planning to close the call side today as well, but looking for a higher close.

Condors bought last Friday for 16.30. If we get a down open tomorrow this one will be flirting with the danger zone, so getting out today.

Jeff 11:28 am on Thursday, August 13, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

AMAT IC

#Earnings Same story here, looking for an average or less move, low risk. This one leans bullish because I set it when the stock was closer to 66.00. Only partial fill so far:

Sold to Open $AMAT Aug 14th 62/63-69/70 iron condors for .42

Jeff 11:14 am on Thursday, August 13, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

BIDU IC

#Earnings. Sold to Open $BIDU Aug 14th 114/116-134/136 iron condors for .60. Looking for a move at the average or less.

Jeff 7:14 am on Thursday, August 13, 2020
Tags: BUPS ( 400 ), Earnings ( 3,111 )

AMAT earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMAT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 14, 2020 AC -4.39%
Feb. 12, 2020 AC +3.05%
Nov. 14, 2019 AC +8.95% Biggest UP
Aug. 15, 2019 AC -1.12%
May 16, 2019 AC +2.49%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC +1.08%
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -7.71%
May 17, 2018 AC -8.24% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 AC +3.89%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC -2.33%
Aug. 17, 2017 AC +2.73%

Avg (+ or -) 4.16%
Bias -0.46%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 125.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 62.49 to 69.51 (+/- 5.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 63.25 to 68.75
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.0%): 60.09 to 71.91
Based on DOWN max only (-8.2%): 60.56

Open to requests for other symbols.

#bups

Jeff 7:12 am on Thursday, August 13, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

BIDU earnings analysis

#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 18, 2020 AC +2.00%
Feb. 27, 2020 AC +0.05%
Nov. 6, 2019 AC +13.51% Biggest UP
Aug. 19, 2019 AC +4.31%
May 16, 2019 AC -16.51% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2019 AC -2.70%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.64%
July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC +5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15%
July 27, 2017 AC +9.45%

Avg (+ or -) 6.51%
Bias 0.66%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 125.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 115.84 to 134.16 (+/- 7.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 116.86 to 133.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.5%): 104.36 to 145.64
Based on UP max only (+13.5%): 141.89

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:43 am on Thursday, August 13, 2020
Tags: SPX7dteLong ( 350 )

SPX 7-dte (or maybe 6-dte)

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 19th 3350/3370-3380/3400 condors for 15.80, with SPX at 3378.

Jeff 12:50 pm on Wednesday, August 12, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), SPX7dteLong ( 350 )

SPX trades

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 12th 3390/3410 call spreads for .25. Not risking the small chance of a volatile close. Condors sold yesterday for 1.30.

Not buying a #SPX7dteLong today… going to buy it in the morning, which seems to save me about a buck in price.

Expiring: Aug 12th 3350/3350 call spreads for 20.00 max credit. Condors bought last Thursday morning for 15.80.

Jeff 11:51 am on Wednesday, August 12, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

NTES earnings analysis

#Earnings $NTES reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 19, 2020 AC -1.35%
Feb. 26, 2020 AC -6.91%
Nov. 20, 2019 AC +2.28%
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +10.26% Biggest UP
May 15, 2019 AC +6.51%
Feb. 20, 2019 AC -5.88%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC +5.31%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -10.96% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2018 AC -7.45%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -6.27%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +7.85%
Aug. 9, 2017 AC -9.77%

Avg (+ or -) 6.73%
Bias -1.37%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 473.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 445.25 to 500.75 (+/- 5.9%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 441.15 to 504.85
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 421.16 to 524.84
Based on UP max only (+10.3%): 521.53

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:29 am on Wednesday, August 12, 2020
Tags: Speculation ( 39 )

PLUG play

#Speculation This one is waking up after a long dormancy and Cramer was talking it up this morning.

Bought to Open $PLUG Jan 2021 20 calls for .80, when stock dipped to 10.11.

Jeff 12:50 pm on Tuesday, August 11, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 3225/3245-3390/3410 condors for 1.30, IV 19.8%, SPX 3338, deltas: -.07,+.07

Jeff 12:15 pm on Monday, August 10, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), SPX7dteLong ( 350 )

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 17th 3335/3355-3365/3385 condors for 16.05, with SPX at 3360.

Expiring: Aug 10th 3300/3320 call spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 16.65.

#SPX1dte Expiring: Aug 10th 3255/3275-3395/3415 condors, sold Friday for 1.10

Jeff 1:00 pm on Friday, August 7, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

Earnings fail

#Earnings. Lost 1.25 on my $YELP supposed-to-be-Straddle but ended up being only a long call. Sure enough, I got the direction wrong.

Jeff 12:56 pm on Friday, August 7, 2020
Tags: RiskReversal ( 86 ), SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 10th 3255/3275-3395/3415 condors for 1.10, with SPX at 3350. IV 11.24%, ∆ -.06,+.06

Expiring: Aug 7th #RiskReversal 3290/3270 put credits spreads & 3390/3405 call debit spreads. Keeping credit of .20.

Jeff 12:08 pm on Friday, August 7, 2020
Tags: SPX7dteLong ( 350 )

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 14th 3315/3335-3345/3365 condors for 16.30, with SPX at 3342.

Expiring: Aug 7th 3165/3185 call spreads for 20.00 DEBIT. This is the one I sold last Friday , but never had a chance to take profit as index only moved up since then. Sold last Friday for 18.95, closed puts for .05, so total loss 1.10.

Jeff 5:43 am on Friday, August 7, 2020
Tags: Jobs ( 134 )

July Jobs Reports

#Jobs — an increase that sightly beats expectations.

Gain of +1,763,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected 1.48M gain
Unemployment at 10.2%, down by 0.9%, vs. expected 10.6%
U6 unemployment at 16.5%, down by 1.5%
Labor force participation 61.4%, down by 0.1%
Average hourly earnings up 0.2%.

June jobs revised down by -9K
May jobs revised upward by +26K

Jeff 12:50 pm on Thursday, August 6, 2020
Tags: Jobs ( 134 ), RiskReversal ( 86 ), SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Since we have another #Jobs report tomorrow I’m going with a #RiskReversal for the upside.

Sold to Open $SPX Aug 7th 3290/3270 put spreads
Bought to Open Aug 7th 3390/3405 call spreads
Total credit: .20

IV: 16.27%, short put ∆ -.10, long call ∆ +.05

Jeff 12:00 pm on Thursday, August 6, 2020
Tags: SPX7dteLong ( 350 )

SPX 7dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 12th 3320/3340-3350/3370 condors for 15.80 with SPX at 3347. I didn’t buy the ATM spread yesterday because it was going for over 19.00. Wait one day and now it is the cheapest I’ve ever gotten on this strategy. Does this mean I should always wait for 6 days out rather than 7?

Also, BTC $SPX Aug 7th 3155/3135 put spreads for .05. This is for the lottery ticket chance of a major down day tomorrow, allowing me to close the call side for a profit without worrying about the put side. Condors SOLD last Friday for 18.95.

Jeff 10:03 am on Thursday, August 6, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 ), LongStraddle ( 59 )

YELP earnings analysis

#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 7, 2020 AC +2.35%
Feb. 13, 2020 AC -3.47%
Nov. 7, 2019 AC +15.43%
Aug. 8, 2019 AC +5.20%
May 9, 2019 AC -14.37%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -0.70%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65%
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 12.03%
Bias 0.85%, slightly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 27.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 24.15 to 29.85 (+/- 10.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 23.75 to 30.25
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 19.53 to 34.47
Based on DOWN max only (-26.6%): 19.82

Open to requests for other symbols.

#longstraddle

Jeff 12:59 pm on Wednesday, August 5, 2020
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 ), SPX7dteLong ( 350 )

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong I am not buying a spread for next Wednesday because, like last Friday, it is going for over 19.00. I don’t know why this is, as I was able to buy Monday’s spread for only 16.65, which is perhaps the least I have ever paid. I SOLD one on Friday, but that spread will be a loss unless we drop into Friday’s close. Friday is the unemployment report for July, so it could be a wild day.

Expired: $SPX Aug 5th 3245/3265 call spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Wednesday for 16.85.

#SPX1dte Expiring: Aug 5th 3220/3240-3345/3365 condors, sold yesterday for .85.

Jeff 6:40 am on Wednesday, August 5, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

ROKU earnings analysis

#Earnings $ROKU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 11 quarters, representing its entire history of earnings reports.

May 7, 2020 AC -7.88%
Feb. 13, 2020 AC -6.32%
Nov. 6, 2019 AC -16.01%
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +20.85%
May 8, 2019 AC +28.11%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +25.23%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -22.29% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +21.31%
May 9, 2018 AC -1.71%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC -17.71%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +54.93% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 20.21%
Bias 7.14%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 166.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 146.03 to 185.97 (+/- 12.0%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 132.45 to 199.55
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (54.9%): 74.82 to 257.18
Based on DOWN max only (-22.3%): 129.00

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:37 am on Wednesday, August 5, 2020
Tags: Earnings ( 3,111 )

WDC earnings analysis

#Earnings $WDC reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 30, 2020 AC -12.15%
Jan. 30, 2020 AC -2.18%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC -16.90%
July 31, 2019 AC +3.00%
April 29, 2019 AC +1.28%
Jan. 24, 2019 AC +7.52% Biggest UP
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -18.18% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC -7.99%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC +1.82%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -2.53%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.54%

Avg (+ or -) 7.40%
Bias -5.13%, strongly negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 45.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 41.39 to 48.61 (+/- 8.0%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 41.67 to 48.33
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.2%): 36.82 to 53.18
Based on UP max only (+7.5%): 48.38

Open to requests for other symbols.