#VIXindicator The Upside Warning coming through this time, with $VIX hitting lowest level since July 29th. $SPX came within .59 of all-time high earlier today.
Author Archives: Jeff
AMZN closed
#Earnings . BTC $AMZN #IronButterfly for for 21.46. Sold yesterday for 27.00. Nice when these work.
UVXY longs
#VXXGame . Sold to close partial $UVXY Jan 2020 long 20 puts for 3.75. Avg price on purchase, 1.85. Holding others for better price. Also have larger amount of VXX Jan 20 puts, avg price 1.30. Now going for 2.55… will start selling these soon.
Economic calendar week of 10/28/19
BUD DUD
#Earnings . Sold to close $BUD Oct25/Nov01 92 put calendar for .01. #DoubleCalendar bought yesterday for .58. Leaving the call side to expire/lottery ticket.
Also, sold to close $SKX Oct 25th 37.5 #LongStraddle for .39. Bought for 4.39 on Tuesday. That was a bad one. Shitty week for earnings trade on my end.
SPOT earnings analysis
#Earnings $SPOT reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history (6 quarters).
July 31, 2019 BO -0.16%
April 29, 2019 BO -0.07%
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -2.83%
Nov. 1, 2018 BO -5.69% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 BO +4.40% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 AC -5.65%
Avg (+ or -) 3.13%
Bias -1.67%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 120.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 110.89 to 129.11
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 116.24 to 123.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (5.7%): 113.17 to 126.83
Based on UP max only (+4.4%): 125.28
Open to requests for other symbols.
T earnings analysis
#Earnings $T reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 24, 2019 BO +3.58%
April 24, 2019 BO -4.08%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO -4.33%
Oct. 24, 2018 BO -8.05% Biggest DOWN
July 24, 2018 AC -4.51%
April 25, 2018 AC -5.96%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +4.56%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -3.93%
July 25, 2017 AC +4.99% Biggest UP
April 25, 2017 AC +1.25%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +0.91%
Oct. 22, 2016 AC -1.68%
Avg (+ or -) 3.99%
Bias -1.44%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 37.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 35.39 to 38.61
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 35.53 to 38.47
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.1%): 34.02 to 39.98
Based on UP max only (+5.0%): 38.85
Open to requests for other symbols.
AMZN iron butterfly
#Earnings . Sold $AMZN Oct 25th 1745/1775/1805 #IronButterfly for 27.00. Risking 3.00 to make, hopefully a lot.
This is a classic play I’ve done probably a dozen times. It worked nicely in Q1, with a 20.00 profit. But often, it can be max loss, which tomorrow would be 3.00. Used to get these for closer to 28.00, but times have changed; probably the higher stock price to blame.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX Oct 25th 2950/2970-3030/3050 condors for .80, IV 8.89%, SPX 3004
EW closed
#Earnings BTC $EW Oct25/Nov01 222.5p/225c #DoubleCalendar for 1.92 (avg price). Bought yesterday for 1.60.
VFC earnings analysis
#Earnings $VFC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 24, 2019 BO +1.20%
May 22, 2019 BO -7.64%
Jan. 18, 2019 BO +12.39% Biggest UP
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -10.71%
July 20, 2018 BO +4.14%
May 4, 2018 BO -2.79%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO -11.07% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 23, 2017 BO +5.37%
July 24, 2017 BO +0.39%
April 28, 2017 BO -5.56%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +4.58%
Oct. 24, 2016 BO -2.92%
Avg (+ or -) 5.73%
Bias -1.05%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 90.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 86.01 to 94.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 85.31 to 95.69
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.4%): 79.29 to 101.71
Based on DOWN max only (-11.1%): 80.48
Open to requests for other symbols.
BUD DUB
#Earnings Bought $BUD Oct25/Nov01 92 #DoubleCalendar for .55.
BUD earnings analysis
#Earnings $BUD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 25, 2019 BO +4.11%
May 7, 2019 BO -3.99%
Feb. 28, 2019 BO +4.60%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -9.37% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 BO -5.02%
May 9, 2018 BO -0.31%
March 1, 2018 BO +3.07%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO -0.94%
July 27, 2017 BO +6.16% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 BO +5.68%
March 2, 2017 BO -3.72%
Oct. 28, 2016 BO -3.80%
Avg (+ or -) 4.23%
Bias -0.29%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 92.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 88.25 to 95.75
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 88.11 to 95.89
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 83.38 to 100.62
Based on UP max only (+6.2%): 97.67
Open to requests for other symbols.
AMZN earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 25, 2019 AC -1.55%
April 25, 2019 AC +2.54%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%
Avg (+ or -) 4.11%
Bias -0.20%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 1,765.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1,697.56 to 1,832.44
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1,692.44 to 1,837.56
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1,531.84 to 1,998.16
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 1,627.15
Open to requests for other symbols.
SNAP shut
#Earnings . Sold to close $SNAP Oct 25th 14.5 puts for 1.60. #LongStraddle bought for 2.26. Small loss on this one, $SKZ looking bad.
FFIV closed
#Earnings Sold to close $FFIV Oct25/Nov01 139 #DoubleCalendar for .35. Bought yesterday for .79. I think you can get more, and if there’s a bigger pullback this could turn into profit. This was only a small position for me.
FFIV earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $FFIV reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 24, 2019 AC -0.65%
April 24, 2019 AC -1.08%
Jan. 23, 2019 AC -2.22%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.10%
July 25, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 25, 2018 AC +0.89%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.05%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +3.97%
July 26, 2017 AC -7.16%
April 26, 2017 AC -7.50%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -8.25% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +9.57% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 4.46%
Bias -0.86%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 139.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 131.49 to 146.51
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 132.80 to 145.20
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 125.70 to 152.30
Based on DOWN max only (-8.3%): 127.53
Open to requests for other symbols.
WHR closed
#Earnings Sold to close $WHR Oct25/Nov01 160 #DoubleCalendar for 1.90. Bought yesterday for .77
E dub dub cal
#Earnings Bought $EW Oct25/Nov01 222.5p/225c #DoubleCalendar for 1.60.
XLNX earnings analysis
#Earnings $XLNX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 24, 2019 AC -3.44%
April 24, 2019 AC -17.07% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 23, 2019 AC +18.43% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +15.00%
July 25, 2018 AC +9.59%
April 25, 2018 AC +1.69%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.08%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC -0.12%
July 26, 2017 AC -2.26%
April 26, 2017 AC +7.35%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -3.67%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +0.96%
Avg (+ or -) 7.06%
Bias 1.78%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 95.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 87.54 to 102.46
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 88.30 to 101.70
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.4%): 77.49 to 112.51
Based on UP max only (-17.1%): 78.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
ALGN earnings analysis
#Earnings $ALGN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 24, 2019 AC -26.98% Biggest DOWN
April 24, 2019 AC -0.11%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +4.86%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC -20.20%
July 25, 2018 AC -4.91%
April 25, 2018 AC +5.80%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC -2.99%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +16.23% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC +10.04%
April 27, 2017 AC +12.09%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC +6.06%
Nov. 7, 2016 AC +1.05%
Avg (+ or -) 9.28%
Bias 0.08%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 215.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 190.68 to 239.32
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 195.06 to 234.94
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.0%): 156.99 to 273.01
Based on UP max only (+16.2%): 249.89
Open to requests for other symbols.
EW earnings analysis
#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 23, 2019 AC +9.93%
April 23, 2019 AC -1.79%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -1.00%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC +10.49% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 6.70%
Bias -2.56%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 225.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 211.82 to 238.18
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 209.92 to 240.08
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 186.55 to 263.45
Based on UP max only (+10.5%): 248.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
TSLA earnings analysis
#Earnings $TSLA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 24, 2019 AC -13.61% Biggest DOWN
April 24, 2019 AC -4.26%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -0.56%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +6.50%
May 3, 2017 AC -5.00%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -6.40%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +0.87%
Avg (+ or -) 6.96%
Bias -1.51%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 252.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 232.19 to 272.81
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 234.94 to 270.06
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.2%): 211.65 to 293.35
Based on DOWN max only (-13.6%): 218.13
Open to requests for other symbols.
all SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Today I said to myself, nothing is happening so I might as well sell the 1-day trade early. Immediately after the fill, something happened. Now that daily trade news has quieted, we get to worry about Brexit again?
My spread was tight to begin with, so really can’t withstand even a little volatility. I was looking for the bounce to make it okay, but we fell again and are within expected move.
BTC $SPX Oct 23rd 2985/2965 put spreads for 2.50, after the bell. Condors sold for .90 about 100 minutes earlier. I’ll leave call side to expire.
I was going to leave the 3-day put spread to fight another day, but the end of the day was too ugly, then it just got worse after the bell.
BTC $SPX 2990/2965 put spreads for 6.25. Sold for 3.45 earlier today.
Upside Warning gave us a little this time around; hopefully it’s not done but I ain’t betting on it after the last few weeks.
Stopping SPX
Not filled yet but closing the 1-dte put side before the 4:15pm cut off
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 23rd 2965/2985-3035/3050 condors for .90, IV: 8.25%, SPX 3012
SPX 3-dte
#SPX1dte Following the trend: Sold $SPX Oct 25th 2990/2965 put spreads for 3.45. Filled on the dip at the top of the hour.
WHR earnings analysis
#Earnings $WHR reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 22, 2019 BO +0.10%
April 22, 2019 AC +0.40%
Jan. 28, 2019 AC +9.66% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.78%
July 23, 2018 AC -14.52% Biggest DOWN
April 23, 2018 AC +3.75%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC +2.30%
Oct. 23, 2017 AC -10.54%
July 26, 2017 AC -6.28%
April 25, 2017 BO +3.51%
Jan. 26, 2017 BO -8.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO -10.77%
Avg (+ or -) 6.43%
Bias -2.01%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 161.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 151.16 to 170.84
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 149.71 to 170.29
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.5%): 136.77 to 183.23
Based on UP max only (+9.7%): 175.46
Open to requests for other symbols.
SNAP earnings analysis
#Earnings $SNAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history (10 quarters).
July 23, 2019 AC +18.74%
April 23, 2019 AC -6.08%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC +22.01%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -10.15%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -6.78%
May 1, 2018 AC -21.93% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2018 AC +47.58% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -14.61%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -14.08%
May 10, 2017 AC -21.45%
Avg (+ or -) 18.34%
Bias -0.68%, tiny negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 14.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 12.16 to 16.84
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 11.84 to 17.16
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (47.6%): 7.60 to 21.40
Based on DOWN max only (-21.9%): 11.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
Earnings Chart Update
$T (AT&T) reports Monday before the bell, not tomorrow.
IRBT earnings analysis
#Earnings $IRBT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 23, 2019 AC -16.86%
April 23, 2019 AC -23.09%
Feb. 6, 2019 AC +9.63%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -12.33%
July 24, 2018 AC +16.99%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.41%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -32.07% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -13.48%
July 25, 2017 AC +21.14% Biggest UP
April 25, 2017 AC +15.73%
Feb. 8, 2017 AC -12.93%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC +11.35%
Avg (+ or -) 15.75%
Bias -3.28%%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 55.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 46.28 to 63.72
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 46.34 to 63.66
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (32.1%): 37.36 to 72.64
Based on UP max only (+21.1%): 66.63
Open to requests for other symbols.
SKX earnings analysis
#Earnings $SKX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 18, 2019 AC +11.96%
April 18, 2019 BO -10.43%
Feb. 7, 2019 AC +15.19%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
Avg (+ or -) 15.68%
Bias 2.64%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 37.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 33.26 to 41.74
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 31.74 to 43.54
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 22.04 to 53.24
Based on DOWN max only (-27.0%): 27.46
Open to requests for other symbols.
CMG earnings analysis
#Earnings $BIIB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 23, 2019 AC +5.18%
April 24, 2019 AC -4.46%
Feb. 6, 2019 AC +11.35%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +3.42%
July 26, 2018 AC +5.71%
April 25, 2018 AC +24.44% Biggest UP
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -10.55%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -14.58% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 AC -2.30%
April 25, 2017 AC +2.38%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -4.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -9.28%
Avg (+ or -) 8.18%
Bias 0.56%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 850.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 792.17 to 907.83
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 780.45 to 919.55
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.4%): 642.26 to 1,057.74
Based on DOWN max only (-14.6%): 726.07
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX expires
#SPX1dte Expiring today:
$SPX Oct 21st 2935/2955-3025/3040 condors, sold Friday for 1.20
$SPX Oct 21st 2975/2950, put spreads sold last Tuesday for 4.90.
I am flat SPX tonight.
BIIB earnings analysis and trade
#Earnings $BIIB reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 23, 2019 BO +4.90% Biggest UP
April 24, 2019 BO -2.52%
Jan. 29, 2019 BO +1.35%
Oct. 23, 2018 BO +0.19%
July 24, 2018 BO +4.10%
April 24, 2018 BO +1.09%
Jan. 25, 2018 BO +2.08%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO -3.90% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 BO -0.61%
April 25, 2017 BO +3.62%
Jan. 26, 2017 BO +2.06%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC -1.87%
Avg (+ or -) 2.36%
Bias 0.87%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 225.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 212.84 to 237.16
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 219.70 to 230.30
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.9%): 213.98 to 236.03
Based on DOWN max only (-3.9%): 216.23
Open to requests for other symbols.
There’s no high in TEAM
#Earnings Sold to close $TEAM Oct18/Oct25 122 #DoubleCalendar for 1.60. Bought yesterday for 1.34
The time to close this was at the open…. it unfortunately dropped most of the day, but then came back enough to give us a small profit.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 21st 2935/2955-3025/3040 condors for 1.20, IV: 8.07%, SPX 2993.
Expiring worthless today: Oct 18th 2950/2960-3025/3035, sold yesterday for .45 (dbl size)
Stuff happening next week
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=21&month=10&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
HON closed
#Earnings Sold to close $HON Oct18/Oct25 165 #DoubleCalendar for .96. Bought yesterday for .86, so I basically covered commissions. Now it has pulled back and better profit is available. But that’s three calendars in one day… one breakeven, one 50% winner, one double+.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 18th (Friday PM) 2950/2960-3025/3035 condors for .45. 10-wide, double size. IV 9.42%, SPX 2997.
MAN earnings analysis
#Earnings $MAN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 19, 2019 BO +0.03%
April 18, 2019 BO +11.60% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2019 BO +3.95%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -3.77%
July 20, 2018 BO +0.52%
April 20, 2018 BO -14.48% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 2, 2018 BO -7.35%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO +0.04%
July 24, 2017 BO -8.96%
April 21, 2017 BO -2.89%
Jan. 31, 2017 BO +0.84%
Oct. 21, 2016 BO +9.71%
Avg (+ or -) 5.35%
Bias -0.90%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 85.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 80.84 to 90.16
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 80.93 to 90.07
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.5%): 73.12 to 97.88
Based on UP max only (+11.6%): 95.42
Open to requests for other symbols.
TEAM earnings analysis
#Earnings $TEAM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 25, 2019 AC +8.57%
April 17, 2019 AC -8.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -2.42%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC -14.29% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +10.48%
April 19, 2018 AC -6.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -4.55%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +24.64% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.18%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.01%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC +2.22%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -3.92%
Avg (+ or -) 7.59%
Bias 0.56%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 122.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 112.00 to 132.00
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 112.74 to 131.26
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.6%): 91.94 to 152.06
Based on DOWN max only (-14.3%): 104.57
Open to requests for other symbols.
URI closed
#Earnings . Sold to close $URI Oct18/Oct25 122p/123p #DoubleCalendar for 1.55. Possible to get over 2.00 now. Bought yesterday for .97 – 1.05.
NFLX dub cal closed
#Earnings Sold to close $NFLX Oct18/Oct25 285 #DoubleCalendar for 3.00. Bought yesterday for 1.37. You will be able to get more if price continued to drop toward the strike.
ISRG earnings analysis
#Earnings $ISRG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 18, 2019 AC -1.45%
April 18, 2019 AC -7.00% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 24, 2019 AC -3.93%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC -3.45%
July 19, 2018 AC -0.86%
April 17, 2018 AC +8.17% Biggest UP
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -2.12%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +3.39%
July 20, 2017 AC -4.55%
April 18, 2017 AC +6.36%
Jan. 24, 2017 AC +5.09%
Oct. 18, 2016 AC -5.56%
Avg (+ or -) 4.33%
Bias -0.49%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 535.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 512.55 to 557.45
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 511.85 to 558.15
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 491.29 to 578.71
Based on DOWN max only (-7.0%): 497.55
Open to requests for other symbols.
Upside Warning
#VIXindicator An inside day on the VIX chart is the third close below 15.05 in a row, meaning an Upside Warning is in effect. Look for higher prices in the coming days. I’m proceeding cautiously after last month’s headfake. I only have one bullish trade (put spread sold this morning).
Expiring today: $SPX Oct 16th 2945/2955-3030/3040 condors sold yesterday for .45.
Bistro problems
I have experienced some issues in the past weeks with Options Bistro log in as well.
The first steps to follow are:
Close your browser.
Reopen it.
Go to wordpress.com
Log in.
Leave the window open and open a new browser window or tab
Go to OptionsBistro.com.
Refresh the page.
If that doesn’t work you’ll need to clear the browser cache. Follow these instructions.
https://en.support.wordpress.com/browser-issues/#clearing-your-browser-cache
Please reply in the comments here if any of the above resolves your issues.
HON earnings analysis
#Earnings $HON reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 18, 2019 BO +3.11%
April 18, 2019 BO +3.78% Biggest UP (tie)
Feb. 1, 2019 BO +0.75%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -1.10% Biggest DOWN (also the ONLY down)
July 20, 2018 BO +3.78% Biggest UP (tie)
April 20, 2018 BO +1.64%
Jan. 26, 2018 BO +1.94%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO +1.20%
July 21, 2017 BO +1.03%
April 21, 2017 BO +2.67%
Jan. 27, 2017 BO +0.38%
Oct. 21, 2016 BO +0.75%
Avg (+ or -) 1.84%
Bias 1.66%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 164.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.36 to 169.64
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 160.98 to 167.02
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (3.8%): 157.80 to 170.20
Based on DOWN max only (-1.1%): 162.20
Open to requests for other symbols.
URI dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $URI Oct18/Oct25 122p/123c #DoubleCalendar for 1.00. Not filled on all yet. Got one for .97 on TOS.
URI earnings analysis
#Earnings $URI reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 17, 2019 AC -7.89%
April 17, 2019 AC +8.14%
Jan. 23, 2019 AC +6.29%
Oct. 17, 2018 AC -15.03% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 18, 2018 AC -6.54%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -1.94%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC +0.05%
July 19, 2017 AC +3.23%
April 19, 2017 AC -5.19%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +11.20% Biggest UP
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +4.69%
Avg (+ or -) 5.94%
Bias -0.16%, no signoficant bias on earnings.
With stock at 123.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 114.43 to 131.57
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 115.70 to 130.30
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.0%): 104.51 to 141.49
Based on UP max only (+11.2%): 136.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
IBM earnings analysis
#Earnings $IBM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 17, 2019 AC +4.58%
April 16, 2019 AC -4.15%
Jan. 22, 2019 AC +8.46%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC -7.62% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2018 AC +3.26%
April 17, 2018 AC -7.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -3.99%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +8.86% Biggest UP
July 18, 2017 AC -4.20%
April 18, 2017 AC -4.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC +2.24%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC -2.61%
Avg (+ or -) 5.20%
Bias -0.63%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 142.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 135.06 to 148.94
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 134.61 to 149.39
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.9%): 129.42 to 154.58
Based on DOWN max only (-7.6%): 131.18
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX Monday
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 21st 2975/2950 put spreads for 4.90. IV: 11.44%, SPX 2990. Bullish positioning following both trend and #VIXindicator.
NFLX dub cal
#Earnings Bought to open $NFLX Oct18/Oct25 285 #DoubleCalendar for 1.37. This stock has typically been too volatile after earnings to be appropriate for this strategy. But two things: NFLX post-earnings moves have quieted in the last couple years, and the Dub-Cals perform well with higher priced stocks.
NFLX earnings analysis
#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 17, 2019 AC -10.27% Biggest DOWN
April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC +3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC +19.02% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 7.16%
Bias 2.99%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 285.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 257.13 to 312.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 264.61 to 305.39
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 230.79 to 339.21
Based on DOWN max only (-10.3%): 255.73
Open to requests for other symbols.
Stuff this week
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=15&month=10&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 16th 2945/2955-3030/3040 condors for .45. 10-wide, double size.
IV 10.34%, SPX 2998.
NUGT closed
#ContangoETFs BTC $NUGT Jan 2020 55 calls for .54. Sold for 3.20 on July 18th.
UAL earnings analysis
#Earnings $UAL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 16, 2019 AC +0.91%
April 16, 2019 AC +4.77%
Jan. 15, 2019 AC +6.35%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.95%
July 17, 2018 AC +8.78% Biggest UP
April 17, 2018 AC +4.81%
Jan. 23, 2018 AC -11.44%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -12.07% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2017 AC -5.90%
April 17, 2017 AC -4.26%
Jan. 17, 2017 AC +0.35%
Oct. 17, 2016 BO -0.31%
Avg (+ or -) 5.49%
Bias -0.17%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 87.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 83.43 to 91.57
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 82.69 to 92.31
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 76.94 to 98.06
Based on UP max only (+8.8%): 95.18
Open to requests for other symbols.
Downside Warning canceled
#VIX indicator Well, so much for that. The VIX close today cancels the Downside Warning and we may be on the way to another Upside Warning. Let’s hope the signals work on the next round.
GS earnings analysis
#Earnings $GS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 16, 2019 BO +1.86%
April 15, 2019 BO -3.81%
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -0.61%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +2.14%
Avg (+ or -) 2.88%
Bias -0.12%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 205.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 198.11 to 211.89
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 199.10 to 210.90
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 185.44 to 224.56
Based on DOWN max only (-4.7%): 195.34
I’m getting on a plane so won’t be able to do any others today; back tomorrow. Happy trading!
SPX out
#SPX1dte Stopped: BTC $SPX Oct 11th 2290/3010 call spreads for 5.20. Condors sold yesterday for 1.35.
Stopped: BTC $SPX Oct 14th 2985/3010 call spreads for 11.00. Condors sold Wednesday for 3.15.
I’m taking a break. I’ve been absolutely slaughtered since the beginning of August. It has been a combination of mistakes, two signals in a row not working, and a completely unpredictable news-driven market. I cannot put on another trade today. I’ll still be here every day, and will resume the low-risk earnings trades next week, and the 1-day spreads once things calm down.
SPX too volatile
#SPX1dte I didn’t get what I wanted today and it’s just too risky to hold in this news-driven market with trade talks continuing into tomorrow. I think the most likely scenario is some partial deal that everyone gets excited about and the algos drive us higher, followed by a dump next week. But it’s just too uncertain (and ridiculous) to have on the risk.
BTC $SPX Oct 14th 2950/2975 call spreads for 9.55. Sold yesterday for 7.00.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 2835/2855-2990/3010 condors for 1.35, IV 21.30%, SPX 2934.
High IV, lots of news expected.
Algos run our lives
BREAKING: Stocks jump after Trump tweets he will meet with China's Vice Premier at the White House tomorrow on trade amid reports of little trade talk progress https://t.co/ivEB35OTNo pic.twitter.com/XPRhnix73y
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) October 10, 2019
SPX Monday
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2800/2825-2985/3010 condors for 3.15, IV: 17.01%, SPX close: 2919.
Sold a couple minutes after the closing bell.
Nuts
#Market So we opened the day higher due to reports that “China is open to a partial US trade deal.”
Now this:
BREAKING: Stocks pull back by about 90 points after Reuters reports that Beijing has lowered expectations for trade talks this week. https://t.co/pWxu4hGRlD pic.twitter.com/Y7lXpOS9yM
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) October 9, 2019
SPX aggressive
#SPX1dte I am considering the Downside Warning and general market weakness. I look at the daily chart and see resistance at 2950 for most of August. I’ve been burned on some of these aggressive spreads recently so I’ll keep a tight leash on it. The biggest risk is, of course, news or a tweet.
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2950/2975 call spreads for 7.00.
DAL earnings analysis
#Earnings $DAL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 11, 2019 BO +1.16%
April 10, 2019 BO +1.59%
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.16%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO +3.56%
July 12, 2018 BO +1.78%
April 12, 2018 BO +2.93%
Jan. 11, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
Oct. 11, 2017 BO +0.70%
July 13, 2017 BO -1.76% Biggest DOWN
April 12, 2017 BO -0.52%
Jan. 12, 2017 BO -1.06%
Oct. 13, 2016 BO +1.88%
Avg (+ or -) 1.82%
Bias 1.27%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 54.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 51.16 to 56.84
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 53.02 to 54.98
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.8%): 51.43 to 56.57
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 53.05
Open to requests for other symbols.
DPZ closed
#Earnings Sold to close $DPZ Oct11/Oct18 242.5 #DoubleCalendar for 2.05. Bought Tuesday for 1.05. Only got filled on a 1-lot; should have forced the issue!
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 9th 2830/2850-2955/2975 condors for 1.15, IV 16.66%, SPX 2906.
SPX 4-dte stopped
#SPX1dte . Looks like the Downside Warning may come through. BTC $SPX Oct 11th 2855/2830 put spreads for 4.00. Condors sold yesterday for 3.00. Stop breached when SPX went below 2905. Perhaps it found support at 2900, but it looks like we could be going lower so getting out while it’s cheap.
DPZ earnings analysis
#Earnings $DPZ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 16, 2019 BO -8.66%
April 24, 2019 BO +4.89%
Feb. 21, 2019 BO -9.14%
Oct. 16, 2018 BO -4.87%
July 19, 2018 BO -2.44%
April 26, 2018 BO +7.31% Biggest UP
Feb. 20, 2018 BO +0.33%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -3.73%
July 25, 2017 BO -10.08% Biggest DOWN
April 27, 2017 BO +2.53%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO +2.36%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +4.89%
Avg (+ or -) 5.10%
Bias -1.38%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 242.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 225.42 to 259.58
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 230.13 to 254.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.1%): 218.06 to 266.94
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 260.23
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 2830/2855-3005/3030 condors for 3.00, IV17.92%, SPX 2945.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Oct 7th 2885 puts for .05. Taking off downside risk, allowing remainder of condor to expire (sold Friday for 1.00)
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 2865/2885-2980/3000 condors for 1.00, IV: 9.92%, SPX 2943.
Expiring today (hopefully): 2820/2840-2950/2970 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20.
Options Bistro 