#Earnings Sold to close $Z Aug 9th 40 puts for 1.00. Lowers cost basis of tonight’s assignment to 41.74, via assignment of the 44 short puts. Condors sold Wednesday for 1.26.
Smaller account: sold 42 puts for 2.65, cost basis 40.60. Will close the short put if we recover to that level today.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 9th 2840/2860-2960/2980 condors for 1.35. IV 16.74%, SPX 2928.
A little more aggressive (.07/.08 short deltas) than my usual, but betting on a quieter day after today’s rally.
#Market It’s rare to see such a straight line in either direction for almost 4 hours with no significant bumps.
#Earnings Bought to Open $YELP Aug 9th 34/34.5 #LongStrangle for 4.23.
#Earnings $UBER has only reported once, on May 30th, and the next day move was +1.5%. (Max intraday was +4.4%)
Expected move on TOS is +/- 3.59.
Sold $UBER Aug 9th 39.5/45.5 strangles for 1.05. Strikes are 7.1% OTM.
#Earnings $YELP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 9, 2019 AC -14.37%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -0.70%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -26.59%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +26.65% Biggest UP
May 10, 2018 AC -7.81%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -14.04%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -0.10%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +27.66%
May 9, 2017 AC -18.35% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -13.64%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +9.94%
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +12.83%
Avg (+ or -) 14.39%
Bias -1.54%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 34.10 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 29.64 to 38.56
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 29.19 to 39.01
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 24.67 to 43.53
Based on DOWN max only (-26.6%): 25.03
Open to requests for other symbols.
#PieTrades #dividends Bought some stock in one account at 26.70. On all accounts, started a #PieTrade:
Sold $KHC Aug 23rd 27 puts for 1.23
thanks for the idea @honkhonk81
#SPX1dte Getting ripped to the upside so I had to bail. Yesterday’s open was possibly the low, and I should have realized that as the market ticked steadily higher in the afternoon. Instead, I doubled down. Live and learn (or make bad trades and learn). That ends my streak of killer returns that started with the Upside Warning on July 5th. I will now resume neutral trades until the market shows its true direction. Probably going higher but not certain until VIX gets lower.
BTC $SPX Aug 12th 2900/2925 call spreads for 15.35. Sold for 9.00 on Tuesday.
BTC $SPX Aug 9th 2910/2935 call spreads for 10.60. Sold for 5.20 yesterday.
#Earnings Sold $Z Aug 9th 40/44-56/60 condors for 1.265. It’s got a couple of big moves recently but otherwise fairly quiet. Also sold 42/44-56/58 for .75 in smaller account.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX May 9th 2910/2935 call spreads for 5.25. Still looking for more downside, or at least resistance at 2900.
#Earnings $Z reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 9, 2019 AC +5.04%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +26.36% Biggest UP
Nov. 6, 2018 AC -26.92% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77%
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC +2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.32%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -4.73%
Avg (+ or -) 9.64%
Bias -1.36%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 50.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 43.33 to 56.67
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 45.18 to 54.82
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.9%): 36.54 to 63.46
Based on UP max only (+26.4%): 63.18
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 7th 2795/2775 put spreads for 1.40. Condors sold for 1.25 yesterday.
At the lows, SPX was within its expected move to my short strike, so I’m stopping out on the bounce.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 7th 2775/2795-2930/2950 condors for 1.25, IV 21.5%, SPX 2877.
#Earnings $DIS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 8, 2019 AC -1.03%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -1.10%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC +1.72%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -2.21%
May 8, 2018 AC -1.78%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -1.32%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +2.04%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -3.87% Biggest DOWN
May 9, 2017 AC -2.15%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC 0.00%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +2.86% Biggest UP
Aug. 9, 2016 AC +1.23%
Avg (+ or -) 1.78%
Bias -0.47%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 140 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 133.71 to 146.29
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 137.51 to 142.49
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (3.9%): 134.58 to 145.42
Based on UP max only (+2.9%): 144.00
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 9, 2019 AC -4.72%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +2.09%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67% Biggest UP
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
Avg (+ or -) 6.25%
Bias -2.15%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 110.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 101.52 to 118.48
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 103.13 to 116.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 95.56 to 124.44
Based on UP max only (+8.7%): 119.54
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte I think we have at least one more leg down.
Sold $SPX Aug 12th 2900/2925 call spreads for 9.00
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 7th 2725/2700 put spreads for .30. Sold yesterday for 1.80.
#VIXindicator Today was the highest $VIX since January 3rd, when VIX was dropping from its Christmas Eve highs.
$VXX and $UVXY were higher in May, as they suffer from Contango.
#SPX1dte Didn’t get any bounce to sell call spreads, so tried a put spread.
Sold $SPX Aug 7th 2725/2700 put spreads for 1.80. Hopefully I can close this tomorrow.
Two more Warnings fired today, but I gotta think at least a small relief rally will happen tomorrow. This is a pretty brutal day. #VIXindicator
#Earnings $REGN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 7, 2019 BO -6.34% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -3.43%
Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO +1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
Avg (+ or -) 3.25%
Bias 0.18%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 300.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 279.50 to 320.50
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 290.24 to 309.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 279.03 to 320.97
Based on DOWN max only (-6.3%): 290.98
Open to requests for other symbols.
#ContangoETFs NUGT is reaching highest levels since Sept 2017. These are my first sales where I am #Rolling from stopped 35 calls.
Sold $NUGT Jan 2020 50 calls for 5.75.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 9th 2950/2975 call spreads for 2.90. Sold Friday for 10.30.
If we get any strong bounce today I’ll try this again.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=5&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DRIP Sept 130 call for 6.40. Highest strike.
#SPX1dte Missed my chance yesterday but trying with an aggressive stance today:
Sold $SPX Aug 9th 2950/2975 call spreads for 10.30. Looking for a sharp move down today, or coming days. I will not be waiting for expiration, and will take profits when it looks like we’re due for a bounce.
(see what I did there?)
#Earnings Was early assigned on $SWK, so I exited long puts and stock for the same $2 loss I was facing if the condor had stayed in tact.
Sold the 148/150/152.5/155 condors for 1.30 last Friday, as a roll from earnings put spread. This increases my loss by .70 more, but I’m through with revenge trading for now.
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 2nd 2880/2860 put spread for .30. Condors sold yesterday for .95.
Not waiting for puts to expire in this environment. The 3010/3030 call side should expire, though.
#Jobs — matching estimates for a change
+164,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 165K expected
Unemployment at 3.7%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 7.0%, down by 0.2
Wages up 0.3%, 3.2% year over year
Labor force participation 63.0%, up 0.1
(Total labor force came in at a record-high 163.4 million)
June revised down from 224K to 193K
May revised down from 72K to 62K
#VIXindicator I began to doubt it would show its stuff on day one, but the Downside Warning came through today, and a second warning fired at the close.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 2nd 2870/2890-3010/3030 condors for .95, IV: 18.99%, SPX 2958.
And SPX just notched below yesterday’s low.
BREAKING: Stocks slide from highs of the day as Trump tweets that while China talks continue, U.S. will put 10% tariff on remaining $300B of goods starting Sept. 1 https://t.co/jn8limUSe7 pic.twitter.com/OAMfdBxJwB
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) August 1, 2019
#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte Closed $SPX Aug 7th 3025/3050 call spreads for 6.75. Sold earlier for 5.50. Action is not bearish so I’m getting out with only a 1.25 loss rather than waiting for it to get worse. I will wait for bearish action to become obvious or to see if signal is nullified.
#Earnings Sold $ANET Aug 2nd 255/265-290/292.5 broken-wing condor for 3.80. #BrokenWingCondor
#Earnings $ANET reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 2, 2019 AC -10.43%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +9.62%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +6.97%
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -5.26%
May 3, 2018 AC -8.51%
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -18.98% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +11.21%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +19.43% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 AC +3.22%
Feb. 16, 2017 AC +18.85%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +1.49%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -0.33%
Avg (+ or -) 9.53%
Bias 2.27%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 278.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 253.96 to 302.04
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 251.52 to 304.48
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.4%): 223.98 to 332.02
Based on DOWN max only (-19.0%): 225.24
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $OLED reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 2, 2019 AC +8.76%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +23.03%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -20.50% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 9, 2018 AC +13.54%
May 3, 2018 AC +12.43%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -15.81%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +9.52%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -1.30%
May 4, 2017 AC +23.87% Biggest UP
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +20.08%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +2.98%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -8.01%
Avg (+ or -) 13.32%
Bias 5.72%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 217.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 193.58 to 240.42
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 188.10 to 245.90
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (23.0%): 165.20 to 268.80
Based on DOWN max only (-20.5%): 172.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte Abiding by the downside warning that there will be a pullback, and waited to hit 3,000 to sell, as it could work as resistance again.
Sold $SPX Aug 7th 3025/3050 call spreads for 5.50. I’ll be watching this closely, in case the signal is a false alarm.
#Earnings $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 1, 2019 AC -7.98%
Feb. 27, 2019 AC +2.42%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +8.65%
May 2, 2018 AC +1.13%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC +0.30%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +3.40%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -4.68%
May 3, 2017 AC +8.86%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC +14.02% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +6.41%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC +8.42%
Avg (+ or -) 6.27%
Bias 2.66%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 82.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 76.22 to 87.78
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 76.86 to 87.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.0%): 70.50 to 93.50
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 74.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings #Rolling #ShortStrangles
BTC $UBER Aug 2nd 41 put for .05. Leaving the call to expire.
41/47 strangles sold for .85 on July 12th. This was my fourth strangle and has me breaking even from busted earnings long straddle. UBER is definitely NOT a mover. I’ll wait for earnings and then consider whether to keep the strangles as an ongoing strategy.
#Earnings Bought to close $SHOP 275/300-330/332.5 Broken-Wing Condors for 1.90. Sold yesterday for 4.50.
I left the long 275 put in place, since it has no bid and thus may have prevented a fill. Fill price is .60 better than if I had allowed call side to expire ITM.
#VIXIndicator Although we recovered from the huge intraday drop, the VIX spiked again at the close and fired a Downside Warning. Expect more volatility and a market drop in the coming days.
#SPX1dte I’m grateful that being at this for 8 years prevents me from panicking. These spreads had me in the hole many thousands of dollars at the lows.
I closed Friday’s put spread as the stop was most definitely breached today… heck, the short strike was breached.
BTC $SPX Aug 2nd 2960/2935 for 4.85. Condors sold for 2.60 on Monday.
Expiring: July 31st 2945/2965-3050/3070 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20.
Expiring: July 31st 2910/2935-3055/3080 condors, sold for 3.00 last Wednesday.
This leaves me flat on SPX tonight.
More likely to come
#Earnings Sold to Close $ADP Aug02/Aug09 165p/167.5c #DoubleCalendar for 1.10. Filled on a few with the order that’s been in for hours. The rest should fill unless it spikes higher. Bought yesterday for .57 avg price
#Earnings $QCOM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 1, 2019 AC +0.89%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -1.29%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -8.16% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2018 AC +7.00%
April 25, 2018 AC +1.44%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -2.12%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC +2.58%
July 19, 2017 AC -4.94%
April 19, 2017 AC +0.09%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -5.00%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -0.20%
July 20, 2016 AC +7.36% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.42%
Bias -0.20%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 75.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 71.15 to 78.85
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 72.43 to 77.57
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 68.88 to 81.12
Based on UP max only (+7.4%): 80.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $WDC reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 29, 2019 AC +1.28%
Jan. 24, 2019 AC +7.52% Biggest UP
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -18.18% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC -7.99%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC +1.82%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -2.53%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.54%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -1.93%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +5.41%
July 28, 2016 AC -11.52%
Avg (+ or -) 6.45%
Bias -3.12%, strong negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 55.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 51.14 to 58.86
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 51.45 to 58.55
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.2%): 45.00 to 65.00
Based on UP max only (+7.5%): 59.14
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings Sold to Open $SHOP 275/300-330/332.5 Broken-Wing Condor for 4.50.
My version of #JadeLizard with disaster put. If SHOP goes higher, this will be at least a 2.00 profit.
#Earnings $SHOP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 30, 2019 BO +7.85%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO +1.37%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +12.03% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO -6.66%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.45%
Feb. 15, 2018 BO +0.28%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2017 BO +5.77%
May 2, 2017 BO +7.40%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO +8.13%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +6.84%
Aug. 3, 2016 BO +9.72%
Avg (+ or -) 6.63%
Bias 3.27%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 318.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 294.33 to 341.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 296.93 to 339.07
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.0%): 279.74 to 356.25
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 289.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 31st 2945/2965-3050/3070 condors for 1.20. IV 14.64%, SPX 3013.
Juicy premium due to the Fed announcement. I think everyone knows what the decision will be, but no one knows what it will do to the market once they confirm it. My guess is: not much. But I’ll be prepared if I’m wrong.
#Earnings $ADP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 1, 2019 BO -4.20%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO +4.03%
Oct. 31, 2018 BO +4.96%
Aug. 1, 2018 BO -1.76%
May 2, 2018 BO +2.74%
Jan. 31, 2018 BO +2.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.91%
July 27, 2017 BO +9.10% Biggest UP
May 3, 2017 BO -6.24% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 1, 2017 BO -5.68%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +3.52%
July 28, 2016 BO -3.37%
Avg (+ or -) 4.07%
Bias 0.38%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 166.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 159.56 to 172.44
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 159.24 to 172.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.1%): 150.89 to 181.11
Based on DOWN max only (-6.2%): 155.64
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $EA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 7, 2019 AC +1.24%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -13.30% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 30, 2018 AC -4.05%
July 26, 2018 AC -5.70%
May 8, 2018 AC +5.74%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC +6.95%
Oct. 31, 2017 AC -4.28%
July 27, 2017 AC +0.55%
May 9, 2017 AC +12.65% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2017 AC -0.51%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +1.64%
Aug. 2, 2016 AC +2.40%
Avg (+ or -) 4.92%
Bias 0.28%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 88.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 82.17 to 93.83
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 83.67 to 92.33
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 76.30 to 99.70
Based on UP max only (+12.7%): 99.13
Open to requests for other symbols.
$EXAS reported Monday morning, so please ignore its presence on the chart for today.
#Earnings Bought to close $BYND 145/175-230/232.5 Broken-Wing Condors for 1.45. Sold for 3.87 yesterday.
#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 30, 2019 AC +4.90%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +6.83% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018 AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC +4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.61%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +4.72%
May 2, 2017 AC -0.30%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC +6.09%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -2.24%
July 26, 2016 AC +6.49%
Avg (+ or -) 4.62%
Bias 2.37%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 207.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 197.49 to 217.51
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters:197.91 to 217.09
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 193.33 to 221.67
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 193.74
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings Move a bit too strong on both #DoubleCalendar so exiting with small losses.
STC $PG 116 for .28, bought yesterday for .36
STC $ETN 81 for .29, bought yesterday for .34
They lost .24 per share, vs. .08 loss expected.
I’m stealing this idea from Options Action. I usually hate their trades but this was a pretty simple one…
Bought to open $UUP Sept 26 calls for .72.
(this is one of those ETFs that trades until 4:15 eastern)
ETF closed at 26.57, so I’m only paying .15 of extrinsic value, on a bet the dollar goes higher after the rate cut.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 2nd 2935/2960-3070/3095 condors for 2.60.
Risky as this is a big week for news and earnings, but .11/.09 short deltas make me comfortable.
Expiring today: 2985/2995-3050/3060 condors, double-size position sold Friday for .45
#Earnings $GRUB reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 7, 2019 BO -2.00%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -11.98%
July 25, 2018 BO +23.53%
May 1, 2018 BO -8.39%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO +27.36% Biggest UP
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +11.17%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +9.05%
April 27, 2017 BO +22.55%
Feb. 8, 2017 BO -3.51%
Oct. 26, 2016 BO -12.69% Biggest DOWN
July 28, 2016 BO +24.10%
May 3, 2016 BO -7.12%
Avg (+ or -) 13.62%
Bias 6.01%, very positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 79.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 68.90 to 89.10
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 68.24 to 89.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.4%): 57.39 to 100.61
Based on DOWN max only (-12.7%): 68.97
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings Sold to Open #JadeLizard with disaster protection, making it a Broken-Wing Iron Condor:
Sold Aug 2nd 230/232.5 call spread AND 175/145 put spread, for 3.87. No upside risk… downside max risk 30.00.
#Earnings I have not traded this one yet. Thinking of Aug 2nd #JadeLizard, sell 180 put, and sell 250/252.5 call spread. Going for 5.45 credit. No upside risk. Thoughts?
#Earnings $PG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 23, 2019 BO -2.68%
Jan. 23, 2019 BO +4.86%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO +8.79% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO +0.84%
April 20, 2018 BO -1.53%
Jan. 23, 2018 BO -3.09%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO -3.64% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 BO +1.54%
April 26, 2017 BO -2.51%
Jan. 20, 2017 BO +3.24%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO +3.41%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO +0.40%
Avg (+ or -) 3.04%
Bias 0.80%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 115.85 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 111.58 to 120.12
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 112.32 to 119.38
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.8%): 105.67 to 126.03
Based on DOWN max only (-3.6%): 111.63
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $ETN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 30, 2019 BO -1.39%
Jan. 31, 2019 BO +4.62%
Oct. 30, 2018 BO -1.87%
July 31, 2018 BO +3.30%
May 1, 2018 BO -1.55%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO +4.63% Biggest UP
Oct. 31, 2017 BO +0.99%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.52% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2017 BO +1.28%
Feb. 2, 2017 BO -1.80%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO -4.81%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO +0.10%
Avg (+ or -) 2.66%
Bias -0.17%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 81.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 77.70 to 84.30
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 78.85 to 83.15
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (5.5%): 76.53 to 85.47
Based on UP max only (+4.6%): 84.75
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $ILMN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 25, 2019 AC -1.61%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC -4.44%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -7.74% Biggest DOWN
July 30, 2018 AC +12.14%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.06%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC -3.54%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -2.83%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +14.82% Biggest UP
April 25, 2017 AC +1.69%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC +0.92%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -2.75%
July 26, 2016 AC +8.09%
Avg (+ or -) 5.30%
Bias 0.97%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 302.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 286.76 to 317.24
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 285.99 to 318.01
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.8%): 257.24 to 346.76
Based on DOWN max only (-7.7%): 278.63
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings First quarter earnings were reported on June 6th, resulting in a +39.3% one-day move. That move tonight would create a range of 133.54 to 306.46, based on current price of 220.00.
Expected move into Friday on TOS is about 42.20, (although that could change through out the course of the day).
At current price of 220, that would mean a range from 177.80 to 262.20.
The options market looks to be expecting a decent pullback eventually… for January options, the 180 put and 180 call are about the same price.
#SPX1dte Volatility is low in this rally, so again going 10-wide, double-size. I wanted to sell earlier but felt it could go another leg higher, and it did.
Sold $SPX July 29th 2985/2995-3050/3060 condors for .40. IV 5.63%, SPX 3026.
Expiring by the skin of my teeth: July 26th 2960/2970-3030/3040, sold for .45 yesterday.
#Earnings #Rolling My earnings condor is a bust, with the 148/150 call side set to expire ITM, which will be a 2.00 debit, against the .80- credit for selling it on Tuesday. So I’m trying a one-week move to breakeven.
Sold $SWK Aug 2 148/150-152.5/155 condors for 1.30. If we can hold tight enough to expire I should come out flat after accounting for commissions.
#Earnings Sold to close $SBUX Jul26/Aug02 90p/91c #DoubleCalendar for .26. Bought yesterday for .38. Move was too high so I got out early while puts still have value. I don’t have any hope for a big drop today.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 2960/2970-3030/3040 condors for .45… 10-wide, double size position. IV 9.05%, SPX 3006
#Earnings Sold to close $FFIV Jul26/Aug02 147p/148c #DoubleCalendar for 1.61-1.55
Bought yesterday for .88
Sold to close $EW Jul26/Aug02 192.5 call calendar for .10. #DoubleCalendar bought for 1.30 on Tuesday. Move was too large and assignment of short shares was likely to happen tonight.
#Earnings Bought to Open $SBUX Jul26/Aug02 90p/91c #DoubleCalendar for .38.
$SBUX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 25, 2019 AC +0.44%
Jan. 24, 2019 AC +3.62%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +9.70% Biggest UP
July 26, 2018 AC +1.36%
April 26, 2018 AC -1.71%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -4.22%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.11%
July 27, 2017 AC -9.24% Biggest DOWN
April 27, 2017 AC -2.02%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -4.00%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +1.89%
July 21, 2016 AC +0.52%
Avg (+ or -) 3.40%
Bias -0.13%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 90.80 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 86.35 to 95.25
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 87.71 to 93.89
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.7%): 81.99 to 99.61
Based on DOWN max only (-9.2%): 82.41
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $GOOGL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 29, 2019 AC -7.50% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 4, 2019 AC +0.91%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -1.79%
July 23, 2018 AC +3.89%
April 23, 2018 AC -4.76%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -5.28%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +4.26% Biggest UP
July 24, 2017 AC -2.93%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.71%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -1.39%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +0.27%
July 28, 2016 AC +3.32%
Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias -0.61%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 1135.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1085.58 to 1184.42
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1097.16 to 1172.84
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.5%): 1049.88 to 1220.13
Based on UP max only (+4.3%): 1183.35
Open to requests for other symbols.
$FSLR confirmed for Aug 1st, after market
$CELG is not confirmed but probably not today
#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 25, 2019 AC +2.54%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%
July 28, 2016 AC +0.82%
Avg (+ or -) 4.05%
Bias -0.01%, no bias on earnings.
With stock at 1990.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1916.77 to 2063.23
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1909.41 to 2070.60
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1727.12 to 2252.88
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 1834.58
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 