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Author Archives: Jeff
Earnings fizzle
#Earnings It seems volatility is just too low to find any decent earnings trades today. Not even FB seems to have any premium worth going for.
BA closed
#Earnings Bought to close $BA July 28th 215/210 put spreads for .10. Sold for 2.50 yesterday.
SPX chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
Second lowest intraday VIX low in history with 9.04 this morning.
Click “Home/REFRESH” above to update right-column features.
SPX fill after the bell
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 25th 2395/2370 put spreads for 1.35.
BA earnings
#Earnings Sold to open $BA July 28th 215/210 put spreads for 2.50. Finally filled after waiting all day so I could get the 1:1 trade. Bullish trade. Over last 12 quarters, Biggest UP move: 5.4%, Biggest DOWN move: -8.9%, Average move: 3.2%. This trade needs a 1.8% move up for max profit; 0.9% down is breakeven.
SPX condor added
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Aug 7th 2425/2450/2500/2525 #IronCondor for 4.15.
Earnings today
#Earnings Looking at an ATM put spread on $BA – bullish chart and bullish bias on earnings.
Can’t find a trade I like in $CMG, or anything that good on the rest.
Whadda you got?
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 25th 2525/2550 call spreads for 1.75, with SPX at 2480.
NVDA puts
GOOGL earnings
#Earnings Sold to open $GOOGL July 28th 980/1000/1020 #IronButterfly for 17.50. Leans bullish for a PIN at 1,000. Profit zone between -1.3% and +2.3% OTM, when stock is at 995.00. I sold 2, so max loss $500, max gain $3,500.
HCA earnings
#Earnings Pretty straightforward… Very small moves on earnings. I’m selling options that are fairly close to the money, and yet still outside it’s 12-quarter earnings move range. Biggest UP move: 2.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -2.6%, Average move: 1.1% . These strikes are 2.9% OTM.
Sold to Open $HCA July 28th 83.5/88.5 strangles for 1.20.
GOOGL earnings
#Earnings $GOOGL has not been a big mover in the last few years, save for one large move up in July 2015. Looking at the last 12 quarters, the stats are: Biggest UP move: 16.3%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.4%, Average move: 4.3%.
If you remove the one 16% outlier, it changes to: Biggest UP move: 5.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.4%, Average move: 3.0%. You would have to go back to Jan 2012 for a move DOWN over 6%.
So, selling puts is safer than calls, and the range for either has been fairly tight, save for July 2015.
Econ Calendar for week of 7/24/17
How low can you go?
#VIXIndicator
Friday’s close of 9.36 was the lowest since Dec 1993; the second lowest close in VIX history.
Before this summer, the VIX had closed below 10 only 9 times. And it had never happened outside the months of November, December, and January.
Friday’s intraday low of 9.30 is the 4th lowest reading ever; the lowest since, again, Dec 1993.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign
Closed $SPX July 28th 2430/2455 call spreads for 22.40. Sold last week for 19.00.
#ITMroll to SPX Aug 4th 2435/2460 call spreads for 21.05.
#RiskReversal Bought SPX July 31st 2490/2510 call spreads for 1.65
Sold July 31st 2450/2425 put spreads for 2.00
Stopped: Closed July 28th 2480/2505 call spreads for 3.55. Sold for 1.30 on June 29th. This is one of those that will explode to 10.00 if we get any rally next week. I will roll to a much safer position on Monday.
Options Expiration 7/21/17
#OptionsExpiration #Earnings Decent start to earnings season, but a mistake with SRPT, where my position size was bigger than my normal risk level, so that loss significantly lowered the earnings profits for the week. I’m sticking with half the trade via assignment. Small losses with JNJ and UAL, but wins with FIZZ, NFLX, V, ISRG, MDSO, IBM, and PII.
— Expiring w/Max profit —
DRIP 28 calls
DUST 42 calls
ISRG 900/875 put spreads
NFLX 155/152.5 put spreads
NFLX 160/157.5 put spreads
PANW 130 put
PII 80/85/100/105 condors
— Assignments —
PANW 135 call, releasing my last batch of stock, now flat. Earnings trade entered Feb 28th, assigned stock, dipped as low as 107.31, then recovered to get me out. Made double the originally intended profit in 21 weeks (rather than the originally intended 1 week).
SRPT 39.5 calls, assigned short stock, cost basis 41.10 (half of position)
— Expiring with losses —
JNJ 130/132/133/135 condors, sold for 1.39 on Monday, loss .66
SRPT 28/31/36.5/39.5 condors, sold for .70, loss 2.30 (half of position)
UAL 78/80/82 call butterfly, loss of .40
Visa and SRPT earnings
#Earnings Sold to Close remaining $V July 21st #BrokenWingButterfly. Bought for 1.68, closed for 3.52 avg, so 1.84 profit.
Sold to close half of my SRPT July 21st 39.5 long calls for 3.90. This will assign me short shares at 41.10 cost basis. Taking max loss on the other half of the 36.5/39.5 call spread, as I don’t want to strain my margin by taking too large a short stock position.
New all time highs in SVXY
#VXXGame Closed my other SVXY July 21st 85 call for 5.65. Wish I’d dumped them both this morning. This thing is flying and VIX approaching new decades-low as SPX is fairly stagnant.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 2nd 2450/2425 put spreads for 3.40. Extra spread as a roll from stopped call spreads.
SVXY calls
#VXXGame Wednesday, BTC SVXY July 21st 87.5 calls for 2.82. Sold as 170 call for 175 call for 3.00 on June 16th. Since I now had two options from the split, had to pay 2.82 x 2, so loss on the trade.
Today: BTC (1) SVXY July 21st 85 call for 4.66. Sold as the 170 call for 4.80 on June 16th. Another loss; waiting to close the other one before the close.
Visa trade, partial closed
#Earnings #BrokenWingButterfly Sold to close one of my lots for 3.26 (legged out). Watching the rest. 96/100/102 call BWBF bought yesterday for 1.68.
FIZZ a wild one
#Earnings After it peaked above 110 yesterday and I dumped my 103.5 shorts for .15 and taking a nice profit on this earnings trade, it just opened with a spike down to 101.00. Was able to sell one of my long 100 puts for .40. Pretty volatile stock, intraday. Might be worth watching for options trades.
SPX chart and VIX Indicator…
SPX chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
NVDA ITM put
#Earnings #Rolling #ReverseRoll
After flipping to being mostly long from my busted short calls last quarter, I just closed the
$NVDA July 21st 175 put for 7.68 to avoid possible early assignment overnight. This was sold for 21.75 on June 9th (inside the 175/145 put spread for 17.00).
I would like to continue playing this one long so I will look for the next pullback to replace it.
Also, BTC NVDA July 21st 160 put for .06, just to be safe. Sold for 10.50 on June 8th.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 20th 2450/2425 put spreads for .15. Sold for 6.80 last week. Can’t leave it to expire due to Friday morning settlement on monthly options.
STOPPED: Bought to close $SPX July 24th 2465/2490 call spreads for 10.00. Sold last week as part of a #CondorRoll for 5.50.
Partial Roll: Sold July 28th 2465/2440 put spreads for 3.70.
Visa broken-wing
#Earnings #BrokenWingButterfly
Bought to open $V July 21st 96/100/102 BWBF for 1.68. This buy 1×96 call, sell 2×100 calls, and buy 1×102. The trade has bullish bias… top profit of 2.32 if it ends Friday at 100. Minimum profit of .32 no matter how high it goes. Max loss 1.68 below 96.00.
Visa has a bullish chart with high open interest at 100.
Biggest UP move: 10.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -3.6%, Average move: 3.4%. Top profit is at +1.6%.
FIZZ earnings closed
#Earnings Bought to close $FIZZ July 21st 103.5 puts for .15. Sold in the 103.5/100 put spreads for 1.25 on July 12th. Rode through a dip below 95 before recovering. Good thing I had 7 days in the trade!
SPX reverse roll
#SPXcampaign #ReverseRoll Switched an ITM call spread for an ITM put spread:
Bought to close $SPX July 31st 2475/2500 call spreads for 9.50. Sold for 5.70 last Friday.
Sold to Open SPX July 31st 2485/2460 put spreads for 9.60.
Also, closed on GTC order: Aug 4th 2330/2305 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.35 on July 7th.
SPX needed pullback
#Market #SPXcampaign Don’t let today’s pullback fool you… I believe we are still going higher in next couple weeks at least. If you agree, be sure to use this pullback to release pressure from call spreads and sell some aggressive put spreads. Don’t go overboard, but don’t miss the opportunity to shift weight from short-the-market to long.
ISRG earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $ISRG July 21st 900/875 put spreads for 1.15. Not a great risk/reward, but high probability given its mostly minor moves down on earnings, highly bullish chart and sector.
Over last 12 earnings, Biggest UP move: 17.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.6%, Average move: 5.7%. This trade is -6.7% OTM.
EDIT: you might be able to get more for this… bid/ask spreads very wide but I was filled immediately on mid price. Try for more premium and back your way down until filled.
Earnings update
#Earnings $PII looking good but $SRPT setting up for its biggest UP ever on earnings… currently outside my condor. Someone tame this thing.
SPX Chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
Upside Warning came through in spades again.
SPX trades
Closed on GTC order: $SPX July 24th 2415/2390 put spreads for .25. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 5.50 on July 12th.
STOPPED: Closed July 20th 2450/2475 call spreads for 19.60. Sold for 3.75 on July 7th. Added 2450/2425 put spreads for 6.80 on July 13th, creating an #IronButterfly and total premium to 10.55.
#IBroll – Sold to Open July 31st 2445/2470/2495 iron butterfly for 15.65. If I can get out of this IB for less than 6.50 I will have some profit in overall trade. More likely, I’ll be rolling something again.
#ITMroll Closed SPX July 26th 2430/2455 call spreads for 22.85. Sold for 15.20 last week.
Selling Aug 2nd 2435/2460 as a roll, hopefully for 21.00 or more. Will add put spread, too.
PII earnings
#Earnings Have not traded this before, but decent premium available outside its average range (although not outside its largest moves).
Sold to Open $PII July 21st 80/85/100/105 #IronCondors for .75. Biggest UP move: 9.3%, Biggest DOWN move: -10.2%, Average move: 5.1%. Short strikes are about +7.7% and -8.5% OTM
SRPT earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $SRPT July 21st 28/31/36.5/39.5 #IronCondor for .70. Low priced stock means risk is lower if assigned… strangle worked nicely last quarter, making it a condor this time due to exceptionally better margin requirement my broker is giving me versus a strangle.
Over last 12 earnings, Biggest UP move: 7.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -8.8%, Average move: 5.2%. My short strikes are about +/- 8.0% OTM.
SPX long calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold the second half of my long call spread, July 21st 2465/2485 spreads for 7.50. Bought for 2.65 last Thursday, with #RiskReversal so cost basis was zero. To take off all risk, closing the put-spread half of the risk-reversal, too:
Bought to close July 21st 2435/2410 put spreads for .30. Sold last Thursday for 2.95.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign. Sold to Open $SPX Aug 17th 2515/2540 call spreads for 1.60, with SPX at new all-time highs.
Also, closed on GTC order: Aug 4th 2320/2295 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on July 3rd.
IBM closed / Earnings updates
#Earnings Bought to close $IBM July 21st 152.5/155 call spreads for .15. Sold yesterday for 1.25 and 1.30. Revenue down for 21st straight quarter. Ouch.
UAL trade a bust, but a low cost entry. Need a news story to push it back to 80 by Friday.
FIZZ trade from last week had fizzled but may recover to a smaller loss by Friday.
JNJ tight condor, closed the short 132 puts for .05, need it to settle below 134 for profit zone.
NFLX, MDSO, winners of the week so far.
UAL earnings
#Earnings #CallButterfly $UAL is not a big mover on earnings. There is high Open Interest at the 80 put and call strike. Chart mildly bullish. So this butterfly profits best if we end the week at 80. Max loss is only the cost of the spread, .40. Max gain 1.60.
Bought to Open $UAL July 21st 78/80/82 call butterflys for .40. Biggest UP move: 4.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -4.3%, Average move: 1.6%. Breakevens at 78.40 and 81.60.
IBM earnings
#Earnings In such a bullish market I rarely sell ATM call spreads, but this one seems a pretty good candidate. Only one time in last 12 quarters has the stock gone up on earnings, and the chart looks bearish. Risk/reward ratio 1:1.
Sold $IBM July 21st 152.5/155 call spreads for 1.25. Max risk 1.25. Biggest UP move: 2.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.1%, Average move: 3.6%.
MDSO earnings closed
#Earnings Closed $MDSO July 21st puts for .05. Sold yesterday for 1.65.
So far today, looking at an ATM call spread on IBM (bearish) and a call butterfly at 80 for UAL.
SPX puts closed, puts sold
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order: $SPX July 28th 2335/2310 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on June 29th.
Sold to Open SPX Aug 17th 2375/2350 put spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2459.
MDSO earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $MDSO July 21st 75 puts for 1.65, with stock at 81.68. Bullish chart, bullish bias on earnings results. Biggest UP move: 20.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -10.3%, Average move: 9.4%. This trade is -8.2% OTM.
Looking at some possible butterflys in GS, LMT, UNH, but I will assess later.
JNJ earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $JNJ July 21st 130/132/133/135 iron condors for 1.39. Max risk .61.
Biggest UP move: 5.0%, Biggest DOWN move: -3.1%, Average move: 2.0%.
With stock at 132.50, the breakevens are +/- 1.0% OTM.
NFLX earnings
Sold these earlier, will probably add a couple more contracts to each. Taking the bullish route as the up moves in NFLX can be face-ripping, while the down moves are manageable.
STO NFLX July 21st 160/155 put spread for 2.00.
STO NFLX July 21st 157.5/152.5 put spread for 1.70
From last 12 quarters, NFLX 5-day moves: Biggest UP move: 27.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -19.9%, Average move: 13.1%.
SPX puts closed, calls sold
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 17th 2450 puts for .40. Sold as the 2450/2425 put spread on Friday for 3.10. Taking off risk.
Sold to open SPX Aug 17th 2510/2535 call spreads for 1.75.
Econ Calendar for week of 7/17/17
Options Expiration 7/14/17
#OptionsExpiration #Earnings #VXXGame
— Expiring —
PEP 110/113/117/120 iron condors. Sold for .85 on Tuesday
SVXY 140 put. Sold for 2.75 on July 5th.
Also, closed on GTC order after the bell: UVXY July 28th 20 calls for .03. Sold for .60 on July 6th.
SPX spitting into the wind
#SPXcampaign Trying one call spread sale at this precipitous height at which we find ourselves:
Sold $SPX July 31st 2475/2500 call spreads for 5.70. Will not let this run if next week keeps barreling upward.
As whenever this happens, sizable drawdown this week, and now I lean very short the market. Tuesday was an account high for me on SPX strategy, and then it all fell apart! But I am now used to going into the hole before surging back during the next pullback.
SPX long calls sold
#SPXcampaign Closed half of long calls bought yesterday in #RiskReversal
Sold to Close $SPX July 21st 2465/2485 call spreads for 4.75. Bought yesterday for 2.65, when I also sold the July 21st 2435/2410 put spreads for 2.95. I’m letting the put spread devalue more before closing. I will hold the second half of the longs for possible continued move higher on Monday.
SPX ITM roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX July 28th 2430/2455 call spreads for 19.00, an #ITMroll at even money from the calls stopped for 19.00 earlier.
SPX condor roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 9th 2375/2400/2500/2525 #CondorRoll for 3.35.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign With the open clearly indicating follow-through, I stopped out of threatened call spreads and added some aggressive put spreads. I have to roll a lot, but waiting now for the upside move to stabilize.
Stopped call spreads:
Aug 4th 2475/2500 for 4.00. Sold for 1.75 on July 6th
July 26th 2450/2475 for 10.10. Sold for 4.40 on July 11th
July 21st 2425/2450 for 19.00. Sold for 14.10 on June 30th (this continues to be #ITMroll)
Put spreads sold:
July 17th 2450/2425 for 3.10
July 26th 2425/2400 for 2.30
Put spreads closed on GTC orders:
July 28th 2315/2290 for .20. Sold for 1.50 on June 29th
July 26th 2340/2315 for .20. Sold as a #Rolldown for 2.05 on June 29th
New SPX all-time high
As expected, freight train keep a-chuggin’
The direction is UP
#VIXindicator… firing an Upside Warning today, means higher SPX prices or at least no downside for the next several days at least.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX July 17th 2450/2425 put spreads for 3.10. Expires Monday
DRIP dropped
#ContangoETFs BTC $DRIP July 21st 30 call for .10. Sold for 1.35 on June 2nd. Took some risk out, but I plan to let my riskier 28 calls expire next week.
SPX more trades
#SPXcampaign
#RiskReversal — this is meant to take advantage of the up move overnight and/or Monday-Tuesday.
Bought to open $SPX July 21st 2465/2485 call spreads for 2.65.
Sold to Open $SPX July 21st 2435/2410 put spreads for 2.95.
Also, stopped out on $SPX July 14th 2440/2465 call spreads for 9.35. Sold for 5.30 on June 29th. Will work on a roll for this tomorrow.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign #VIXIndicator The bears tried this morning but couldn’t turn the tide… provided nothing drives us lower overnight I expect and Upside Warning tomorrow, testing all-time highs tomorrow and ending the week at or above 2450. Starting to take aggressive actions…
Sold to Open $SPX July 20th 2450/2425 put spreads for 6.80. This creates an iron butterfly at 2450, since I have the 2450/2475 call spread. Perhaps we can get a pin at 2450 for the monthly series?
Sold to Open Aug 11th 2375/2350 puts spreads for 1.65.
Sold to Open Aug 11th 2495/2520 call spreads for 1.60.
Looking at options for a couple other threatened call spreads.
SPX Chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
#VIXIndicator The Downside Warning was canceled today with a VIX close below the 78.6% Fib line. If we get two more consecutive closes below 10.61, it will fire an Upside Warning.
SPX ITM roll
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 26th 2430/2455 call spreads for 15.20, as an #ITMroll of July 19th spreads stopped this morning.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Had several near-the-money call spreads getting crushed today. Such is the game when you lean short. Stopped out on a couple:
Bought to close $SPX June 14th 2435/2460 call spreads for 10.40. Sold for 5.70 last Thursday.
Sold to Open $SPX June 24th 2390/2415/2465/2490 #CondorRoll for 5.50, twice the position size.
Bought to close June 19th 2425/2450 call spreads for 16.20. Sold for 14.00 on July 5th. Looking to make an #ITMroll to July 26th 2430/2455.
FIZZ earnings
#Earnings Never traded this one before but it has some decent premium and a very bullish trend, and bullish historical moves on earnings. It moved up quite a lot in the last week so a pullback may be in order, so this almost-ATM spread is lower probability but decent risk/reward.
Sold to Open $FIZZ July 21st 103.5/100 put spreads for 1.25.
Biggest UP move: 10.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -3.5%, Average move: 3.5%. This trade is -0.7% OTM.
Things may have changed
We opened with the Highest $TICK reading since last September. With today’s open and VIX collapse below 10.50, things may have changed and Downside could be over. If this holds for today it is likely we will push to new highs by Friday. That’s what I will look for if VIX remains low today, and I will be rolling call spreads.
Dow futures jump 100 points…
Dow futures jump 100 points as Yellen signals gradual rate increases ahead
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/12/us-markets-seen-mixed-ahead-of-yellens-congress-address.html
SPX Chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
We remain in a Downside Warning until we get a VIX close below 10.61. The market is unable to push much higher so I’m continuing to sell aggressive call spreads until that changes.
After hours fill
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 26th 2450/2475 call spreads for 4.40. As long as VIX closes above 10.61, I will keep shorting this market. My call spreads have kept the dough rolling into my account for the past couple weeks.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 11th 2325/2300 put spreads for 1.60
Closed on GTC orders:
July 12th 2450/2475 call spreads for .20. Sold for 2.25 on July 5th.
July 12th 2445/2470 call spreads for .20. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 5.75 on June 29th.
July 17th 2460/2485 call spreads for .20. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 5.10 on June 30th.
SPX call spread closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX June 10th 2430 calls for .95. Sold in the 2430/2455 call spreads for 15.00 on June 26th. Finally out of this #ITMroll.
Also, expiring today: June 10th 2445/2470 call spreads. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 5.60 on June 29th.
PEP earnings
#Earnings #CoveredCalls Sold to Open $PEP July 14th 110/113/117/120 iron condors for .85. Biggest UP move: 2.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -1.6%, Average move: 1.0%. The strikes are about 1.7% OTM with stock at 115.00
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 11th 2485/2510 call spreads for 1.55.
Econ Calendar for week of 7/10/17
Options Expiration 7/7/17
— Expiring —
SVXY 135 & 140 puts
SPX add-ons
#SPXcampaign Almost forgot I hadn’t sold my second put spread for the week. Regretting not being aggressive at the close yesterday; now I have to sell about 40 points higher than I could have.
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 4th 2330/2305 put spreads for 1.35.
Also, closed on GTC order: July 14th 2350/2325 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on June 14th.
SPX trades today
#SPXcampaign
Closed on GTC orders:
$SPX July 12th 2360/2335 put spreads for .20. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 5.75 on June 29th.
$SPX July 14th 2340/2315 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on June 14th.
Extra call spread sold: July 20th (monthlys) 2450/2475 call spreads for 3.75.
#ReverseRoll Stopped: July 7th 2425 short calls closed for 1.35. Sold as 2425/2450 call spreads yesterday for 3.25. Had to bail a few minutes ago.
A second consecutive week with a Thursday/Friday whipsaw. Managed much better this time.
Options Bistro 