#SPXcampaign After the bell, closed on GTC order: $SPX Aug 9th 2440/2415 put spreads for .20. Sold for 2.10 on July 28th.
Author Archives: Jeff
Calling the top
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Aug 21st 2480/2505 call spreads for 8.90. Since I just closed an #ATMroll I’m selling another at the same strikes. We are still in an Upside Warning but it seems to have run out of steam… Famous last words, perhaps. We just hit a two-week high, so this could finally be the run to 2500.
ZNGA stock
#Earnings #LongStock Trailing stop knocked me out of half my position at 3.58. May hold the rest for another day.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 7th 2480 calls for .50. Sold in the 2480/2505 call spreads for 7.50 on July 26th. Nice one to close. Now for those two ITM spreads down around 2440. Ready for the VIX to wake up!
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 8th 2525/2550 call spreads for 1.55. Had an order in for 1.60 since dawn; no fill so I lowered it.
W earnings
#Earnings This is a trade I did in 1st quarter that worked nicely. Wayfair has made some big moves on earnings before, which is probably why premiums are so high.
Sold to Open $W Aug 11th 75/80/85 #IronButterfly for 4.25. Max risk .75. Biggest UP move: 28.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -19.6%, Average move: 13.3%. Profits between 75.75 (-3.6%) and 84.25 (+7.2%). Slightly bullish with the trend and high call interest at 80.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign In overnight session, closed on GTC order: $SPX Aug 7th 2470/2445 put spreads for .50. Sold for 4.20 on July 26th. Still holding the 2480/2505 call spreads expiring today.
ZNGA stock
#Earnings #Assignment #LongStock
Forgot to close my long 3.50 calls on Friday so I was assigned 1,000 shares. I put .05 trailing stop on to enjoy any gain on the day, or close it out before it goes below 3.50. Cost basis is 3.70.
Econ Calendar for week of 8/7/17
Options Expiration 8/4/17
— Expired w/max profit —
ATVI 60 puts
NVDA 160 puts
REGN 440/430 put spread
STMP 137/125 put spreads
— Expired w/max loss —
AAPL 145/150/155 iron butterflys
DISH 62.5/64.5/65/67 iron condors
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign
Sold to Open $SPX Sep 1st 2395/2370 put spreads for 1.40.
Sold to Open Aug 16th 2450/2425 put spreads for 2.25.
Closed Aug 9th 2500/2525 call spreads for .15. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 3.35 on July 14th.
Closed Aug 11th 2440/2465 call spreads for 21.95.
#ITMroll Sold Aug 18th 2445/2470 call spreads for 19.90
AAOI puts
#Earnings I have not traded this before and normally don’t do the #FallingKnife trades, but too good to resist.
Sold $AAOI Sept 15th 55 puts for 1.25.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 1 2520/2545 call spreads for 1.55. You can get more now.
July Jobs Report
#Market Pretty much good news all around:
+209,000 jobs. June revised to +231,000
Unemployment rate back to 4.3%, after ticking up to 4.4% in June
U6 unchanged at 8.6%
Avg hourly earnings up 0.3%, better than June (up 0.2%)
Labor Force Participation 62.9% (up 0.1 from June)
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign $SPX Closed on GTC orders:
Yesterday: Aug 7th 2500/2525 call spreads for .20. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 4.15 on July 25th.
Today: Aug 11th 2375/2350 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.65 on July 13th.
#ITMroll
Yesterday: Closed Aug 9th 2440/2465 call spreads for 22.00. Sold for 21.05 on July 26th.
Today: Sold Aug 16th 2440/2465 call spreads for 19.90.
Due to bad market timing, couldn’t move up a strike and lost money on the roll. Will look to sell an extra spread tomorrow.
STMP
I knew it was bullish, but WTF? How is it a company selling stamps is up 33% in one day?
ATVI earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $ATVI Aug 4th 60 puts for 1.10 and 1.30. May add more if it continues to drop.
Biggest UP move: 18.9%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.9%, Average move: 5.8%. Upside bias +3.75%. This trade is -4.5% OTM.
Earnings today
#Earnings I think the only one I’ll be doing is a bullish trade on $ATVI, selling 60 puts. Order in for 1.10, which will fill only if this thing pulls back intraday. It is flying, as it has been for weeks and it’s earnings moves have been quite bullish.
I have never traded $AAOI but I see that it is also quite bullish. It has had strong moves on earnings in both directions, however, so a little leery on that one.
REGN and SODA closed
#Earnings Bought to close $REGN Aug 4th 500/510 call spreads for .30. Sold yesterday in the 430/440/500/510 #IronCondor for 1.95. I will let the put side expire.
Bought to close $SODA Aug 4th 57.5 puts for .20. Sold Tuesday in the 57.5/55 put spreads for 1.40. Leaving long 55 puts as a lottery ticket.
REGN earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $REGN 430/440/500/510 #IronCondor for 1.95. Filled on the pop up to 475.
Biggest UP move: +6.7% , Biggest DOWN move: -6.3% , Average move: 3.2%. Short strikes are +5.3% and -7.4% OTM.
DISH earnings
#Earnings Sold to open $DISH Aug 4th 62.5/64.5/65/67 iron condors for 1.25. Max risk .75. I placed the order earlier when DISH was around 64.75. It filled after a drop, so now this trade leans bullish.
Biggest UP move: 4.3%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.3%, Average move: 2.1%.
GRMN closed
#Earnings Bought to close $GRMN Aug 4th 51/49 put spreads for .10. Sold yesterday for 1.00.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order: $SPX Aug 4th 2495/2520 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on July 3rd.
ZNGA earnings
#Earnings This is a small trade, win or lose about $200. $ZNGA seems to be recovering from lows, so this is a play for a move up to 4.00+.
Bought to open (10) ZNGA Aug 4th 3.5 calls for .20. Biggest UP move: 12.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -15.8%, Average move: 7.3%. Breakeven +4.2% OTM.
STMP earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $STMP Aug 4th 137/125 put spreads for 1.90. This is one of my favorite earnings trades. It has been strongly bullish for years, including on earnings. Usually go naked but making it a wide condor to manage margin.
Biggest UP move: 38.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -8.3%, Average move: 14.0%. +10.4% bullish bias. This trade is -7.9% OTM.
SHOP closed
#Earnings Bought to close $SHOP Aug 4th 80/110 strangles for .15 (legged out). Sold for 1.26 on Monday.
GRPN closed
#Earnings GRPN long straddle didn’t work (needed a big gap) so I sold for .26. Bought yesterday for .62.
ULTI earnings
#Earnings I’m not taking this trade because I’m a bit light on buying power, but worth looking at for the Aug 18th options. That’s 17 days away, and the stock has not fallen more than 12% at any point after earnings, even up to 21-days after. The 200 puts are about 12% OTM. You can be even safer selling the 195 or 190’s. Also nicely below trend channel and 200 ma.
Here are 21-day stats: Biggest UP move: 8.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.9%, Average move: 5.0%.
AAPL earnings
#Earnings #IronButterfly 150.00 is a nice round number with higher open interest, so playing this one for a pin on Friday.
Sold to Open $AAPL Aug 4th 145/150/155 iron butterflys for 3.67. Max risk, 1.33.
ONE-DAY moves: Biggest UP move: 6.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.6%, Average move: 4.1%.
Today’s earnings: GRPN, GRMN, SODA
#Earnings These orders are all in. May adjust prices if no fill comes soon.
$GRPN Buying the Aug 4th 4 straddle for .62. Biggest UP move: 29.0%, Biggest DOWN move: -26.3%, Average move: 16.0%. -1.59% negative bias. With stock at 3.76, this trade breaks even at +22.9% or -10.1%.
$GRMN Selling Aug 4th 51/49 put spreads for 1.00. Biggest UP move: 16.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -10.7%, Average move: 5.7%. +1.12% positive bias. Bullish chart.
$SODA Selling Aug 4th 57/55 put spreads for 1.00. Biggest UP move: 23.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -8.7%, Average move: 9.1%. A blistering +5.04% positive bias on recent earnings. Seems to be on a bullish run for over a year now.
SRPT short stock
Bought to close $SRPT stock, assigned on earnings on July 21st. Cost basis 41.10.
Yesterday, 100 shares at 41.00
Today, 100 shares at 37.50
Still holding 100 shares with Sept 35 covered put.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order: $SPX Aug 2nd 2450/2425 put spreads for .20. Sold for 3.40 on July 21st.
AAPL data
#Earnings Here is info on the last 12 earnings moves (1 day) for $AAPL.
Biggest UP move: 6.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.6%, Average move: 4.1%. +0.54% upside bias.
May 2, 2017 AC -0.30%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC 6.09%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -2.24%
July 26, 2016 AC 6.49%
April 26, 2016 AC -6.25%
Jan. 26, 2016 AC -6.57%
Oct. 27, 2015 AC 4.12%
July 21, 2015 AC -4.22%
April 27, 2015 AC -1.57%
Jan. 27, 2015 AC 5.65%
Oct. 20, 2014 AC 2.71%
July 22, 2014 AC 2.60%
With stock at 149.00, the 6.6% max move would be 139.21, and 158.79.
SPX expired
#OptionsExpiration #SPXcampaign #RiskReversal
This expired Monday, unsuccessful long but nonetheless a small profit since the put spread was sold for a higher amount.
$SPX July 31st 2490/2510 long call spreads, bought for 1.65 on July 21st.
$SPX July 31st 2450/2425 short put spreads, sold for 2.00 on July 21st.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 1st 2375/2350 for 1.40, with SPX at 2471.
SHOP earnings
#Earnings #ShortStrangles
Sold to Open $SHOP Aug 4th 80/110 strangles for 1.26. Over last 12 earnings, its biggest FIVE DAY moves: Biggest UP move: 18.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -9.8%, Average move: 7.9%. These strikes are +19.9% and -12.8% OTM.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open #$SPX Sept 1st 2525/2550 call spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2475
Econ Calendar for week of 7/31/17
JOBS report is on Friday
SPX roll
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Aug 4th 2435/2460 call spreads for 21.50. Sold for 21.05 last Friday.
#ITMroll Sold SPX Aug 11th call spreads for 20.25.
Options Expiration 7/28/17
#OptionsExpiration #Earnings #CoveredCalls #ContangoETFs #ShortStrangles #ShortCalls
— Expiring w/Max Profit —
DUST 45 calls
FSLR 49 covered call
— Assignments —
HCA 83.5 puts, taking stock, cost basis 82.30
FSLR 48 covered call, releasing half of stock position
— Expiring w/Loss —
AMZN 1037.5/1042.5/1092.5/1097.5 #IronCondor
AMZN 1030/1050/1070 #IronButterfly
GOOGL 980/1000/1020 Iron Butterflys
SPX puts stopped, puts sold
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX July 31st 2485/2460 put spreads for 15.00. Sold for 9.60 on Jul 20th.
Sold to Open SPX Aug 9th 2440/2415 put spreads for 2.10. To get back to normal order, I’m going to sell spreads further out until we have the next decent drop. It will take longer to make up for some of my stop-losses, but with market uncertainty I’m getting whipped around too much with ATM and NTM spreads.
EA closed
#Earnings Bought to close $EA July 28th 117 puts for .15. Sold yesterday in the 117/114 put spread for 1.40.
AMZN?
#Earnings I had two each of the #IronButterly and the #IronCondor. I have now closed one of each for less than max loss. Holding the others as it looks possible that AMZN may actually end the day decently.
BTC July 28th 1030/1050 put spread (from the IB) for 19.80. Sold yesterday for 17.875.
BTC July 28th 1037.5/1042.5 put spread (from the IC) for 4.70. Sold yesterday for 3.50.
Intraday trends
SPX trending down, VIX, TLT, and Gold trending up.
TICKS kind of trending up, however.
SPX shake out
#SPXCampaign Couldn’t hold onto these with weakness today.
Bought to close $SPX July 28th 2465 puts for 3.00. Sold in the 2465/2440 put spread for 3.70 on July 20th. Will sell the long 2440 puts if we drop more.
Bought to close SPX July 31st 2470/2445 put spreads for 4.70. Sold in the 2445/2470/2495 #IronButterfly (#IBroll) for 15.65 on July 19th.
I am backing off on put rolls for now, given the market weakness. I have too many spreads near the money. Had been looking to close out the week on a high note with weakness more likely next week, but it came early so now I’m on guard. My main goal now is to get back to normal order with fewer spreads so close to the money.
EXPE closed
#Earnings BTC $EXPE July 28th 50 puts for .10. Sold yesterday for 2.05. Taking few chances on allowing anything to drop on me today.
Jeff Bezos world’s richest man for 12 hours
#Earnings Swing and a miss for $AMZN, after opening at all-time highs yesterday, stock way down this morning on a fairly big earnings miss. EA also down, EXPE flat.
Everything looking under pressure today.
SPX chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
#SPXcampaign These were roll-trades from Wednesday:
BTC SPX Aug 2nd 2435/2460 call spreads for 23.15
STO SPX Aug 9th 2440/2465 call spreads for 21.05
BTC SPX July 31st 2470/2495 call spreads for 10.20
STO SPX Aug 7th 2480/2505 call spreads for 7.50, and Aug 7th 2470/2445 put spreads for 4.20
The Beauty of Dust
#ContangoETFs BTC $DUST Jan-2018 90 call for .75. Sold for 7.70 on March 8th.
FSLR covered calls
#Earnings I’ve held FSLR stock for a long time and a long ways down. Ready to unload it if these fill.
STO FSLR July 28th 48 call for .77
STO FSLR July 28th 49 call for .56
AMZN Earnings, Pt. 2
#Earnings Sold to Open $AMZN July 28th 1030/1050/1070 #IronButterfly for 17.85. Max risk, 2.15. Trying for another at a better price, but 18.00 is not filling.
SVXY roll
#VXXGame So that appears to be what constitutes a “correction” in 2017, huh? Stay long and strong?
#ReverseDoubleRoll
BTC $SVXY Sept 15th 90 call for 7.45. Sold as the 100/180 strangle (pre-split) for 18.95 on 3/21.
Sold (2) SVXY Sept 77.5 puts for 3.70.
That’s one down, 3 more short 90 calls to roll.
Other stuff
#CoveredPuts #ShortStock
Bought to cover SRPT short stock at 43.00 yesterday and 40.78. Still short more shares so selling covered puts against it: STO $SRPT Sept 15th 35 covered put for 1.20.
Sold to Open $NVDA Aug 18th 155 put for 2.00.
SPX up then down
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Aug 25th 2520/2545 call spreads for 1.90, when SPX was at 2481.
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 25th 2380/2355 put spreads for 1.40, when SPX was at 2466.
I made some rolls yesterday that I will post before the end of today, along with updated chart.
EA earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $EA July 28th 117/114 put spreads for 1.40, with stock at 116.50. This was trading at 120 an hour ago. Bullish stock, decent r/r. (Max risk 1.60).
Biggest UP move: 13.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.5%, Average move: 5.9%. Upside bias: +2.46%
VXX Game
#VXXGame Sold to Open these $SVXY puts, my first in awhile, against several SVXY short calls:
Aug 18th 80 put for 1.95
Sept 1st 80 put for 2.80
Sept 15th 75 put for 3.25
EXPE earnings
#Earnings #ShortPuts Sold to Open $EXPE July 28th 150 puts for 2.05.
Biggest UP move: 12.9%, Biggest DOWN move: -11.5%, Average move: 6.5%. This trade is -2.3% OTM. Bullish stock… the -11.5% down move was in Feb 2015 and is an outlier. Next biggest down move was only -2.2%.
AMZN Earnings
#Earnings Volatility in the last few minutes got me filled on this, despite very wide bid/ask spreads.
Sold to Open $AMZN July 28th 1037.5/1042.50/1092.5/1097.5 #IronCondor for 3.50. Max risk, 1.50. Set the order when AMZN was at 1068, filled when it was at 1053.
Over last 12 quarters, Biggest UP move: 14.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -9.6%, Average move: 7.4%. This trade is +3.8% and -1.0% OTM.
When you reduce to the last 6 quarters, the moves are smaller: Biggest UP move: 9.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.6%, Average move: 4.6%.
Also considering a 20-point wide #IronButterfly, which I may sell at end of the day.
What’s the news?
What’s the news?
Earnings fizzle
#Earnings It seems volatility is just too low to find any decent earnings trades today. Not even FB seems to have any premium worth going for.
BA closed
#Earnings Bought to close $BA July 28th 215/210 put spreads for .10. Sold for 2.50 yesterday.
SPX chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
Second lowest intraday VIX low in history with 9.04 this morning.
Click “Home/REFRESH” above to update right-column features.
SPX fill after the bell
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 25th 2395/2370 put spreads for 1.35.
BA earnings
#Earnings Sold to open $BA July 28th 215/210 put spreads for 2.50. Finally filled after waiting all day so I could get the 1:1 trade. Bullish trade. Over last 12 quarters, Biggest UP move: 5.4%, Biggest DOWN move: -8.9%, Average move: 3.2%. This trade needs a 1.8% move up for max profit; 0.9% down is breakeven.
SPX condor added
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Aug 7th 2425/2450/2500/2525 #IronCondor for 4.15.
Earnings today
#Earnings Looking at an ATM put spread on $BA – bullish chart and bullish bias on earnings.
Can’t find a trade I like in $CMG, or anything that good on the rest.
Whadda you got?
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 25th 2525/2550 call spreads for 1.75, with SPX at 2480.
NVDA puts
GOOGL earnings
#Earnings Sold to open $GOOGL July 28th 980/1000/1020 #IronButterfly for 17.50. Leans bullish for a PIN at 1,000. Profit zone between -1.3% and +2.3% OTM, when stock is at 995.00. I sold 2, so max loss $500, max gain $3,500.
HCA earnings
#Earnings Pretty straightforward… Very small moves on earnings. I’m selling options that are fairly close to the money, and yet still outside it’s 12-quarter earnings move range. Biggest UP move: 2.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -2.6%, Average move: 1.1% . These strikes are 2.9% OTM.
Sold to Open $HCA July 28th 83.5/88.5 strangles for 1.20.
GOOGL earnings
#Earnings $GOOGL has not been a big mover in the last few years, save for one large move up in July 2015. Looking at the last 12 quarters, the stats are: Biggest UP move: 16.3%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.4%, Average move: 4.3%.
If you remove the one 16% outlier, it changes to: Biggest UP move: 5.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.4%, Average move: 3.0%. You would have to go back to Jan 2012 for a move DOWN over 6%.
So, selling puts is safer than calls, and the range for either has been fairly tight, save for July 2015.
Econ Calendar for week of 7/24/17
How low can you go?
#VIXIndicator
Friday’s close of 9.36 was the lowest since Dec 1993; the second lowest close in VIX history.
Before this summer, the VIX had closed below 10 only 9 times. And it had never happened outside the months of November, December, and January.
Friday’s intraday low of 9.30 is the 4th lowest reading ever; the lowest since, again, Dec 1993.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign
Closed $SPX July 28th 2430/2455 call spreads for 22.40. Sold last week for 19.00.
#ITMroll to SPX Aug 4th 2435/2460 call spreads for 21.05.
#RiskReversal Bought SPX July 31st 2490/2510 call spreads for 1.65
Sold July 31st 2450/2425 put spreads for 2.00
Stopped: Closed July 28th 2480/2505 call spreads for 3.55. Sold for 1.30 on June 29th. This is one of those that will explode to 10.00 if we get any rally next week. I will roll to a much safer position on Monday.
