#Earnings $PII looking good but $SRPT setting up for its biggest UP ever on earnings… currently outside my condor. Someone tame this thing.
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX Chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
Upside Warning came through in spades again.
SPX trades
Closed on GTC order: $SPX July 24th 2415/2390 put spreads for .25. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 5.50 on July 12th.
STOPPED: Closed July 20th 2450/2475 call spreads for 19.60. Sold for 3.75 on July 7th. Added 2450/2425 put spreads for 6.80 on July 13th, creating an #IronButterfly and total premium to 10.55.
#IBroll – Sold to Open July 31st 2445/2470/2495 iron butterfly for 15.65. If I can get out of this IB for less than 6.50 I will have some profit in overall trade. More likely, I’ll be rolling something again.
#ITMroll Closed SPX July 26th 2430/2455 call spreads for 22.85. Sold for 15.20 last week.
Selling Aug 2nd 2435/2460 as a roll, hopefully for 21.00 or more. Will add put spread, too.
PII earnings
#Earnings Have not traded this before, but decent premium available outside its average range (although not outside its largest moves).
Sold to Open $PII July 21st 80/85/100/105 #IronCondors for .75. Biggest UP move: 9.3%, Biggest DOWN move: -10.2%, Average move: 5.1%. Short strikes are about +7.7% and -8.5% OTM
SRPT earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $SRPT July 21st 28/31/36.5/39.5 #IronCondor for .70. Low priced stock means risk is lower if assigned… strangle worked nicely last quarter, making it a condor this time due to exceptionally better margin requirement my broker is giving me versus a strangle.
Over last 12 earnings, Biggest UP move: 7.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -8.8%, Average move: 5.2%. My short strikes are about +/- 8.0% OTM.
SPX long calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold the second half of my long call spread, July 21st 2465/2485 spreads for 7.50. Bought for 2.65 last Thursday, with #RiskReversal so cost basis was zero. To take off all risk, closing the put-spread half of the risk-reversal, too:
Bought to close July 21st 2435/2410 put spreads for .30. Sold last Thursday for 2.95.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign. Sold to Open $SPX Aug 17th 2515/2540 call spreads for 1.60, with SPX at new all-time highs.
Also, closed on GTC order: Aug 4th 2320/2295 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on July 3rd.
IBM closed / Earnings updates
#Earnings Bought to close $IBM July 21st 152.5/155 call spreads for .15. Sold yesterday for 1.25 and 1.30. Revenue down for 21st straight quarter. Ouch.
UAL trade a bust, but a low cost entry. Need a news story to push it back to 80 by Friday.
FIZZ trade from last week had fizzled but may recover to a smaller loss by Friday.
JNJ tight condor, closed the short 132 puts for .05, need it to settle below 134 for profit zone.
NFLX, MDSO, winners of the week so far.
UAL earnings
#Earnings #CallButterfly $UAL is not a big mover on earnings. There is high Open Interest at the 80 put and call strike. Chart mildly bullish. So this butterfly profits best if we end the week at 80. Max loss is only the cost of the spread, .40. Max gain 1.60.
Bought to Open $UAL July 21st 78/80/82 call butterflys for .40. Biggest UP move: 4.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -4.3%, Average move: 1.6%. Breakevens at 78.40 and 81.60.
IBM earnings
#Earnings In such a bullish market I rarely sell ATM call spreads, but this one seems a pretty good candidate. Only one time in last 12 quarters has the stock gone up on earnings, and the chart looks bearish. Risk/reward ratio 1:1.
Sold $IBM July 21st 152.5/155 call spreads for 1.25. Max risk 1.25. Biggest UP move: 2.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.1%, Average move: 3.6%.
MDSO earnings closed
#Earnings Closed $MDSO July 21st puts for .05. Sold yesterday for 1.65.
So far today, looking at an ATM call spread on IBM (bearish) and a call butterfly at 80 for UAL.
SPX puts closed, puts sold
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order: $SPX July 28th 2335/2310 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on June 29th.
Sold to Open SPX Aug 17th 2375/2350 put spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2459.
MDSO earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $MDSO July 21st 75 puts for 1.65, with stock at 81.68. Bullish chart, bullish bias on earnings results. Biggest UP move: 20.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -10.3%, Average move: 9.4%. This trade is -8.2% OTM.
Looking at some possible butterflys in GS, LMT, UNH, but I will assess later.
JNJ earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $JNJ July 21st 130/132/133/135 iron condors for 1.39. Max risk .61.
Biggest UP move: 5.0%, Biggest DOWN move: -3.1%, Average move: 2.0%.
With stock at 132.50, the breakevens are +/- 1.0% OTM.
NFLX earnings
Sold these earlier, will probably add a couple more contracts to each. Taking the bullish route as the up moves in NFLX can be face-ripping, while the down moves are manageable.
STO NFLX July 21st 160/155 put spread for 2.00.
STO NFLX July 21st 157.5/152.5 put spread for 1.70
From last 12 quarters, NFLX 5-day moves: Biggest UP move: 27.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -19.9%, Average move: 13.1%.
SPX puts closed, calls sold
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 17th 2450 puts for .40. Sold as the 2450/2425 put spread on Friday for 3.10. Taking off risk.
Sold to open SPX Aug 17th 2510/2535 call spreads for 1.75.
Econ Calendar for week of 7/17/17
Options Expiration 7/14/17
#OptionsExpiration #Earnings #VXXGame
— Expiring —
PEP 110/113/117/120 iron condors. Sold for .85 on Tuesday
SVXY 140 put. Sold for 2.75 on July 5th.
Also, closed on GTC order after the bell: UVXY July 28th 20 calls for .03. Sold for .60 on July 6th.
SPX spitting into the wind
#SPXcampaign Trying one call spread sale at this precipitous height at which we find ourselves:
Sold $SPX July 31st 2475/2500 call spreads for 5.70. Will not let this run if next week keeps barreling upward.
As whenever this happens, sizable drawdown this week, and now I lean very short the market. Tuesday was an account high for me on SPX strategy, and then it all fell apart! But I am now used to going into the hole before surging back during the next pullback.
SPX long calls sold
#SPXcampaign Closed half of long calls bought yesterday in #RiskReversal
Sold to Close $SPX July 21st 2465/2485 call spreads for 4.75. Bought yesterday for 2.65, when I also sold the July 21st 2435/2410 put spreads for 2.95. I’m letting the put spread devalue more before closing. I will hold the second half of the longs for possible continued move higher on Monday.
SPX ITM roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX July 28th 2430/2455 call spreads for 19.00, an #ITMroll at even money from the calls stopped for 19.00 earlier.
SPX condor roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 9th 2375/2400/2500/2525 #CondorRoll for 3.35.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign With the open clearly indicating follow-through, I stopped out of threatened call spreads and added some aggressive put spreads. I have to roll a lot, but waiting now for the upside move to stabilize.
Stopped call spreads:
Aug 4th 2475/2500 for 4.00. Sold for 1.75 on July 6th
July 26th 2450/2475 for 10.10. Sold for 4.40 on July 11th
July 21st 2425/2450 for 19.00. Sold for 14.10 on June 30th (this continues to be #ITMroll)
Put spreads sold:
July 17th 2450/2425 for 3.10
July 26th 2425/2400 for 2.30
Put spreads closed on GTC orders:
July 28th 2315/2290 for .20. Sold for 1.50 on June 29th
July 26th 2340/2315 for .20. Sold as a #Rolldown for 2.05 on June 29th
New SPX all-time high
As expected, freight train keep a-chuggin’
The direction is UP
#VIXindicator… firing an Upside Warning today, means higher SPX prices or at least no downside for the next several days at least.
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX July 17th 2450/2425 put spreads for 3.10. Expires Monday
DRIP dropped
#ContangoETFs BTC $DRIP July 21st 30 call for .10. Sold for 1.35 on June 2nd. Took some risk out, but I plan to let my riskier 28 calls expire next week.
SPX more trades
#SPXcampaign
#RiskReversal — this is meant to take advantage of the up move overnight and/or Monday-Tuesday.
Bought to open $SPX July 21st 2465/2485 call spreads for 2.65.
Sold to Open $SPX July 21st 2435/2410 put spreads for 2.95.
Also, stopped out on $SPX July 14th 2440/2465 call spreads for 9.35. Sold for 5.30 on June 29th. Will work on a roll for this tomorrow.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign #VIXIndicator The bears tried this morning but couldn’t turn the tide… provided nothing drives us lower overnight I expect and Upside Warning tomorrow, testing all-time highs tomorrow and ending the week at or above 2450. Starting to take aggressive actions…
Sold to Open $SPX July 20th 2450/2425 put spreads for 6.80. This creates an iron butterfly at 2450, since I have the 2450/2475 call spread. Perhaps we can get a pin at 2450 for the monthly series?
Sold to Open Aug 11th 2375/2350 puts spreads for 1.65.
Sold to Open Aug 11th 2495/2520 call spreads for 1.60.
Looking at options for a couple other threatened call spreads.
SPX Chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
#VIXIndicator The Downside Warning was canceled today with a VIX close below the 78.6% Fib line. If we get two more consecutive closes below 10.61, it will fire an Upside Warning.
SPX ITM roll
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 26th 2430/2455 call spreads for 15.20, as an #ITMroll of July 19th spreads stopped this morning.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Had several near-the-money call spreads getting crushed today. Such is the game when you lean short. Stopped out on a couple:
Bought to close $SPX June 14th 2435/2460 call spreads for 10.40. Sold for 5.70 last Thursday.
Sold to Open $SPX June 24th 2390/2415/2465/2490 #CondorRoll for 5.50, twice the position size.
Bought to close June 19th 2425/2450 call spreads for 16.20. Sold for 14.00 on July 5th. Looking to make an #ITMroll to July 26th 2430/2455.
FIZZ earnings
#Earnings Never traded this one before but it has some decent premium and a very bullish trend, and bullish historical moves on earnings. It moved up quite a lot in the last week so a pullback may be in order, so this almost-ATM spread is lower probability but decent risk/reward.
Sold to Open $FIZZ July 21st 103.5/100 put spreads for 1.25.
Biggest UP move: 10.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -3.5%, Average move: 3.5%. This trade is -0.7% OTM.
Things may have changed
We opened with the Highest $TICK reading since last September. With today’s open and VIX collapse below 10.50, things may have changed and Downside could be over. If this holds for today it is likely we will push to new highs by Friday. That’s what I will look for if VIX remains low today, and I will be rolling call spreads.
Dow futures jump 100 points…
Dow futures jump 100 points as Yellen signals gradual rate increases ahead
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/12/us-markets-seen-mixed-ahead-of-yellens-congress-address.html
SPX Chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
We remain in a Downside Warning until we get a VIX close below 10.61. The market is unable to push much higher so I’m continuing to sell aggressive call spreads until that changes.
After hours fill
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 26th 2450/2475 call spreads for 4.40. As long as VIX closes above 10.61, I will keep shorting this market. My call spreads have kept the dough rolling into my account for the past couple weeks.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 11th 2325/2300 put spreads for 1.60
Closed on GTC orders:
July 12th 2450/2475 call spreads for .20. Sold for 2.25 on July 5th.
July 12th 2445/2470 call spreads for .20. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 5.75 on June 29th.
July 17th 2460/2485 call spreads for .20. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 5.10 on June 30th.
SPX call spread closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX June 10th 2430 calls for .95. Sold in the 2430/2455 call spreads for 15.00 on June 26th. Finally out of this #ITMroll.
Also, expiring today: June 10th 2445/2470 call spreads. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 5.60 on June 29th.
PEP earnings
#Earnings #CoveredCalls Sold to Open $PEP July 14th 110/113/117/120 iron condors for .85. Biggest UP move: 2.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -1.6%, Average move: 1.0%. The strikes are about 1.7% OTM with stock at 115.00
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 11th 2485/2510 call spreads for 1.55.
Econ Calendar for week of 7/10/17
Options Expiration 7/7/17
— Expiring —
SVXY 135 & 140 puts
SPX add-ons
#SPXcampaign Almost forgot I hadn’t sold my second put spread for the week. Regretting not being aggressive at the close yesterday; now I have to sell about 40 points higher than I could have.
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 4th 2330/2305 put spreads for 1.35.
Also, closed on GTC order: July 14th 2350/2325 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on June 14th.
SPX trades today
#SPXcampaign
Closed on GTC orders:
$SPX July 12th 2360/2335 put spreads for .20. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 5.75 on June 29th.
$SPX July 14th 2340/2315 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on June 14th.
Extra call spread sold: July 20th (monthlys) 2450/2475 call spreads for 3.75.
#ReverseRoll Stopped: July 7th 2425 short calls closed for 1.35. Sold as 2425/2450 call spreads yesterday for 3.25. Had to bail a few minutes ago.
A second consecutive week with a Thursday/Friday whipsaw. Managed much better this time.
Market
#Market Another bounce off the threat of a correction. This market simply does not want to go down. VIX is down but not plummeting so probably a good place to sell the market.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order: $SPX July 28th 2500/2525 call spreads for .20. Sold last week for 1.75.
DUST calls
#ContangoETFs #ShortCalls Followed @optioniceman on a couple and one of my own:
STO $DUST July 21st 42 calls for .50
STO $DUST July 28th 45 calls for .50
STO $DUST Dec 50 call for 4.75
FB covered call
#Earnings #CoveredCalls
Yesterday, bought to close $FB July 21st 155 call for .60. Sold for 2.60 on June 19th. Using my last 100 shares as a #CoveredCallCampaign, selling and rolling calls as stock moves higher.
SPX 17-hour trade
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX June 7th 2390/2365 put spreads for .20. Sold 15 minutes before the close yesterday for 1.75. I love the smell of fear in the afternoon and profits in the morning.
June Jobs Report
+222,000 jobs in June. Highest since February (May revised to +152,000)
Unemployment rate up to 4.4% (from 4.3%)
U6 up to 8.6% (from 8.4% in May)
Avg hourly earnings up 0.2%
Labor Force Participation 62.8% (up 0.1 from May)
SPX final trades
#SPXcampaign Finally firing off some put spreads as we flush into close…
Sold to Open $SPX July 7th 2390/2365 put spreads for 1.75. Expire tomorrow.
More coming…
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Forgot to do this on the bounce today… but still sufficiently OTM for little concern…
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 4th 2475/2500 call spreads for 1.75, with SPX at 2414.
SPX trades, part 3
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX July 17th 2390/2365 put spreads for 3.60. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 5.10 on June 30th.
Sold to Open SPX July 14th 2435/2460 call spreads for 5.70… filled on this on the top tick of the afternoon, at 2423.
Closed on GTC order: July 20th 2490/2515 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on June 23rd.
SPX more trades
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX July 7th 2425/2450 call spreads for 3.25. A roll from stopped put spread; aggressively near-the-money, but following my thesis that we are going lower. I will be wrong if we end the day above 2430 and roll. If we get a strong push down later I will try to sell a put spread for about 1.80 to make up for full cost of exiting the earlier spread.
#IBroll Bought to close July 12th 2420/2395 put spreads for 7.20. This was part of the #IBroll sold last week for 18.85. I rolled the call side up yesterday… will #ITMroll this one down when we hit lower levels on the index.
Auto parts
After disappointing news from ORLY yesterday, and its biggest one-day drop in history, AZO also took a big hit… fortunately the day after I threw in the towel on my final short put, exiting with a small profit. Amazon has this whole sector spooked.
SPX trades, and market today
#Market I believe the direction today is down and feel we should see better opportunity to sell volatility later today.
#SPXcampaign
Closed on GTC order: July 14th 2470/2495 call spreads for .20. Sold for 3.60 on June 22nd.
STOPPED: July 7th 2415/2390 put spreads for 4.90. Sold for 3.00 on Monday. Looking to roll this, possibly by legging into a #CondorRoll expiring tomorrow.
SPX extra calls
#SPXcampaign sold these near the bell:
SPX July 12th 2450/2475 call spreads for 2.25
SPX closures
#SPXcampaign These closed on GTC orders, on the downs then ups of the day…
$SPX July 7th 2455/2480 call spreads for .25. Sold for 4.25 on June 16th.
$SPX July 10th 2375/2350 put spreads for .25. Sold as part of a #CondorRoll for 5.60 on June 29th.
#ITM roll
Closed July 12th 2420/2445 call spreads for 13.75. Sold as part of an #IBroll for 18.85 on June 29th.
Sold to Open July 19th 2425/2450 call spreads for 14.00.
I’m leaving the put side of the #IronButterfly now, since it is currently OTM. Will keep an eye and roll it should we drop below 2410.
SVXY put
#VXXGame Sold to Open $SVXY July 14th 140 put for 2.75
SPX Chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
#VIXIndicator With the late day pullback the VIX remained above the 78.6% Fib line, meaning the Downside Warning remains in effect.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 4th 2320/2295 put spreads for 1.30. Normally would wait to see if Tuesday was a down day, but since there is no Tuesday this week…
SPX and SVXY
#SPXcampaign #VXXGame Sold a couple that expire this Friday:
$SPX July 7th 2415/2390 put spreads for 3.00
$SVXY July 7th 135 puts for .55
Margin release
#ContangoETFs BTC $NUGT July 21st 50 call for .05. Sold for 1.25 on June 6th.
#Earnings BTC $AZO Sept 15th 480 put for 3.10. Sold for 3.70 on May 24th. Overall earnings trade turned out nicely profitable, so I don’t need this extra put that gobbles up too much margin to wait another month or two.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 4th 2495/2520 call spreads for 1.50.
Closed on GTC order: SPX July 7th 2360/2335 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on June 9th.
Econ Calendar for week of 7/3/17
JOBS report this Friday
SPX Chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
#VIXIndicator Thursday’s Warning still looks like a possible head fake, but the VIX stayed above the cancellation level today which leaves the possibility of volatility next week.
Options Expiration 6/30/17
Happy Half Year everyone! See you on a short trading day Monday.
Only 1 expiration: $MU 27.5/35 strangles, sold yesterday for .87
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 17th 2365/2390/2460/2485 condors for 5.10, as a #CondorRoll from the put spread which I got flushed out on this morning.
#ITMroll Closed July 3rd 2415/2440 call spreads for 15.15. Sold for 7.40 yesterday on whipsaw action.
Rolled to July 21st 2425/2450 call spreads for 14.10. Also added July 21st 2335/2310 put spreads for 1.20.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX June 30th 2425/2400 put spreads for 5.00. Had to bail as the trickle down will not stop trickling. Sold for 3.20 on June 20th.
SVXY puts closed
#VXXgame BTC $SVXY June 30th 148 puts for .10. Sold on Tuesday for .75. Just staying clear of any intraday collapse.
STZ earnings closed
#Earnings Bought to close $STZ July 21st 170 puts for .10. Sold Wednesday for 1.15.
SPX bonanza
#SPXcampaign $SPX I’m concerned we may have had another head-fake Downside Warning today… that would be two in a row and time to reassess the mechanics of the signal. I made many trades, some reverse-rolls and some standard rolls. I also clung onto to June 30th 2425/2400 put spread, which may be able to expire tomorrow. Here are my trades in order of execution:
Closed yesterday (but roll not filled): July 5th 2410/2435 call spreads for 20.85. (had planned to sell roll on any move up today, but didn’t get one)
Today:
Closed on GTC order: July 14th 2485/2510 call spreads for .20, with SPX at 2421.
#ITMroll: Sold July 12th 2395/2420/2445 #IronButterfly for an #IBroll of ITM spread above. Since I missed my chance to roll to new calls, chose to take this route and will roll the losing side. This got me 10 points higher on the call side.
Sold July 28th 2315/2290 put spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2420. Standard weekly spread.
STOPPED: July 5th 2405/2380 put spreads for 5.40, with SPX at 2412.
#CondorRoll: Sold July 12th 2335/2360/2445/2470 condors for 5.75, w/SPX at 2412.
STOPPED: July 3rd 2430/2405 put spreads for 12.45, with SPX at 2409.
#ReverseRoll: Sold July 3rd 2415/2440 call spreads for 7.40, and July 14th 2440/2465 call spreads for 5.30.
Sold July 28th 2480/2505 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2413. Standard weekly spread.
Closed on GTC order: July 20th 2500/2525 call spreads for .20, with SPX at 2414.
STOPPED: July 20th 2360/2335 put spreads for 2.90.
#Rolling: Sold July 26th 2340/2315 put spreads for 2.05, 1.5x position size, w/SPX at 2418.
STOPPED: July 3rd 2410/2385 put spreads for 5.60, w/SPX at 2412
#CondorRoll: Sold July 10th 2350/2375/2445/2470 condors for 5.60, w/SPX at 2419
MU earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $MU June 30th 27.5/35 strangles for .87, when MU was at 31.58. Biggest UP move: 12.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -18.2%, Average move: 6.0%. These strikes are -12.9% and +10.8% OTM
Downside Warning fired
#VIXIndicator Look for further weakness in the market in coming days or weeks.
Downside Signal fired
#VIXIndicator VIX has breached 12.54, which is 25% above last night’s close. That fires a downside signal, and cancels upside warning. Next level is 14.06, which would fire a Downside Warning.
