This trade inspired by CMLViz.
Bot NFLX Oct19 350/340/325/300 x 1/-2/-1/2 put @ 8.31 credit. Will close @ 50% profit or day before earnings on Oct 16 whichever comes first. No risk to upside. BE on downside 323. Will adjust with call credit spread or long put at 330, whichever is most cost effective.
#lophir
#pre-earnings
Author Archives: MamaCash
AZO supercharger
Sold for target profit @ 9.40. This one took patience and luck.
Au revoir but not goodbye
I’m heading to Switzerland for a couple weeks to hike the Alps and enjoy some family time. I’ll check in occasionally but my goal is to get my mind off the markets. As you all know, that isn’t easy for a trader.
A lophir a day keeps…
A lophir a day keeps the losses at bay
Added lophir layers in QQQ, SSO, and XLY
I’m using a @fuzzballl tactic and choosing not to bore you with the details.:-) Here’s a quick refresher. Sell a 30d put x2, buy a 15d put x2, buy a 40d put x1, and sell a 22d put x1. Delta goal at entry is 12 per lot. Set a GTC to take profit or let it expire for full profit.
AVGO supercharger
This trade was inspired by AVGO’s propensity to move up into earnings (9/6) and also by the delightful mispricing of a 5-wide DITM call debit spread.
Bot AVGO Sep7 207.5/212.5 BuCS @ 3.50. GTC order @ 4.30.
Target needs to be a little lower on this one due to high vol going into earnings. I forgot about that. That makes this trade more difficult to close for a profit before earnings.
AZO supercharger
Bot Sep21 720/730 call debit spread @ 7.50. GTC @ 9.40
Earnings confirmed on 9/18. It’s not quite time to put on an earnings play so this is my way of taking advantage of a pullback with the likelihood that price will move up over the next few weeks.
#supercharger
XLV lophir
STO XLV Sep28 +9 1/-2/-1/2 92/91.5/90.5/89.5 PUT/PUT/PUT/PUT x 9 @ .33 credit
Max risk $1862. BE 113.83. Credit $238
Management: Let it expire. If ETF price aligns with peak on risk graph, sell a 35/20d CCS and try to get out even
XLY lophir
STO XLY Sep28 1/-2/-1/2 116/115/114/112.5 PUT/PUT/PUT/PUT x7 @ .34 credit
Max risk $1862. BE 113.83. Credit $238
Management plan: Let it expire for full credit. If ETF price aligns with peak on risk graph, I will sell a 35/20 delta call credit spread in same expiration and try to get out for a scratch.
AMZN lophir
Update: Changed profit target to 80% from 50%. With today’s upside, I want to give this trade more room to profit.
Update2: Closed for 70% profit.
STO AMZN Sep28 1/-2/-1/2 1915/1885/1855/1820 PUT/PUT/PUT/PUT @ 8.69 credit. GTC order to close at 4.35.
This is a rinse and repeat trade. I take 50% profit and replace with another 30dte trade. Management is minimal. If stock price lines up with the peak on the risk graph, cut the delta in half by selling a 35/20 delta call credit spread, a long put or whatever you prefer.
MSFT unhinged fuzzy
Bot MSFT Sep28 109c/-109p/+106p x2 @ 1.32.
My indicators were saying to go long. This will likely be a short hold. My exit price is the high at 111.15
SSO TQQQ new trades
Now that @smasty160 (Sue) has informally introduced the “lophir” to Options Bistro, I’ll start sharing some of my trades. By way of a quick refresher, the lophir trade consists of selling 30DTE 30/15 delta put credit spread x2 and buying a 40/22 delta put debit spread x 1. All of these trades are net credit. You may notice me tweaking delta and DTE at times. My goal is to make some quiet money on a low maintenance trade.
STO +5 1/-2/-1/2 SSO Sep21 124.5/123/120.5/118 PUT/PUT/PUT/PUT @ .55 credit. GTC order to close at .17
STO +4 1/-2/-1/2 TQQQ 100 Sep28 68/65.5/63/60 PUT/PUT/PUT/PUT @ .60 credit. GTC order to close at .18
Buyer beware. These trades are in the experimental stage. Current plan is to cut the delta in half when price hits the profit peak on the risk graph and cut it in half again when it hits the breakeven price or close the trade if it’s near expiration. Our backtesting indicated that we wouldn’t need to manage often but live trading can make a liar out of backtests.:-)
VMIN anyone?
I bot 100 shares of VMIN today just to see what will happen with dividends in December.:-) Has anyone here ever bought or sold this ETF?
#volatility
ROKU
Sold the call in my ROKU earnings strangle for 5.70. Bot the strangle for 2.03. Nice 148% profit. Lucky but nice nonetheless.:-)
#earnings
CMLViz backtesting
Here’s some info if you’re interested. https://vimeo.com/238690559
Post-earnings
Although I don’t get as involved, I trade some tickers after earnings based on CML backtests. The historical patterns after earnings are not consistent across stocks. Each one seems to have a mind of its own. Also, the returns aren’t quite as dramatic or consistent as pre-earnings. That said, there is money to be made here.
If you’re interested, I highly recommend subscribing to CMLViz (https://tm4.cmlviz.com) so you can do your own backtesting. There are so many variables and only you know what you’re comfortable trading. The recommended designs include straddles, strangles, ICs, calendars, debit/credit spreads, and calls/puts.
I’m happy to share my post-ER spreadsheet. I currently have positions in GOOGL, CHKP, GRUB, LRCX, and SHOP. Closed PYPL for a nice profit. There are lots more stocks to consider but I’m going to be very selective. It’s been tough to profit this round.
My primary focus is on longer-term fuzzies, ratios, flies and SPX short-term trades so earnings trades are on the sideline.
#post-earnings
Pre-Earnings
It’s been a busy quarter for pre-earnings trades. I’m still holding positions in BABA, NVDA, and ADSK and watching for new trades in CRM and AVGO later this month. Here’s a link to the Google spreadsheet where I track pre-ER trades. Wins far outpaced losses. Whew!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RKD02IWjO9ZpAsJ7DqRojBkAnVTE1ZncFxUNHnUOZsE/edit?usp=sharing
Is this background supposed to…
Is this background supposed to be an improvement? lol
@fibwizard What is your take…
@fibwizard
What is your take on the market today? I’d love to know what you see on the NDX and SPX charts.
IWM QQQ XLY risk twist
Opened some of DK’s famous risk twist trades. Typically, you put these on when the market is soaring in preparation for a downturn. In my case, I’m adding to the short side based on the downturn already in progress. Maybe too late.:-)
BTO IWM Bfly Sep21 164p/-156p/154p @ 1.61
BTO QQQ bfly Sep21 175/167/165 PUT @1.85
BTO XLY bfly Sep21 109/104/103 PUT @.85
#ShortBrokenFly
WYNN pre-earnings
Sold WYNN Pre-ER Aug3 167.5c @ 2.70 for 4% loss. Bot @ 2.80.
Sold early due to market weakness. Loss is minimal at this point so want to keep it that way. This is the last round of WYNN for me this quarter. Previous rounds 93%, 20%, 10%, and -2%.
#preearnings
Earnings adjustments
Keeping some upside risk but also adding some risk to the downside.
Sold LRCX Aug17 202.5 calls @ 1.15 against long post-ER 200 calls
Sold NVDA Aug17 277.5 calls @ .97 against long pre-ER 275 calls
Sold GOOGL Aug10 1282.5 calls @ 4.4 against long post-ER 1280 calls
#earnings
Non-directional trades
Buying straddles and strangles in my favorite index/sector ETFs: DIA, FAS, IWM, QQQ, SPY and XLY.
Also only taking non-directional post-ER trades until the turbulence abates.
#strangles
#straddles
INTC post-earnings
BTO Aug10 strangle 48.5c/46.5p @ 1.23
http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180727191728_PiDZV3978mL6NHza
#postearnings
LRCX post-earnings
Bot LRCX Aug17 200c @ 1.92
After LRCX moves up 5% in one day in response to earnings, LRCX tends to continue moving up over the next few weeks. LRCX is also forming a daily squeeze which makes this trade even more compelling. http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180727180410_UAlqLy1UC9kr46Au
Adjustments going into the weekend
I’m not bearish but I’ve been flying high and long for a few weeks and ready to reduce exposure.
Flipped my pre-ER long calls to call debit spreads or closed for small loss/profit.
Sold my post-ER long puts for profit.
Closed the synthetic portion of half my fuzzies but kept the protective puts.
Hedged all fuzzies and diagonals.
Bought VXX ATM calls in Aug 3, 10, and 17 expirations.
I’ve been planning to be flattish to short for the rest of the summer after next week but decided to get started today with the elevated VIX. If VIX is at the high near the close, will add more hedges.
TWTR INTC
Anyone selling puts? I want to get in the pie trade biz but I need the underlying to be low-priced. My trading accounts are not so big; however, growing them to largess is a primary goal. lol.
#pietrades
BABA earnings
BABA moved earnings from 8/2 to 8/23 (three weeks out). Now confirmed.
We can’t say that @fuzzballl didn’t warn us. lol.
#earnings
PYPL
Opened first layer of PYPL post-ER. Bot Aug10 strangle 93c/87.5c @ 1.76. Historical data shows that PYPL makes a big move after earnings but is fickle about direction so we play both sides here.
#earnings
FB falling knife
Bot FB Aug3 175/180 cds @ 2.40. Looking for a dead cat bounce on FB.
#fallingknife
AMZN earnings
Bot AMZN call fly Aug3 1850/1900/1960 @ 4.40 in two accounts to hold through earnings. Looking for a pin around 1900 after earnings but will take any profit I can get in the 1850 to 1960 range.
#earnings
Boom… sputter
Today was a fun and busy day. Looks like tomorrow will just be a busy day.:-)
STC EA pre-ER for small loss. Second pre-ER loser this quarter. GOOGL was the first.
STC CAT pre-ER Aug3 140c @ 3.80 for 58% profit. Bot @ 2.40. Third and last round of CAT
STC SHOP pre-ER Aug3 180c @ 4.40 for 42%. Bot @ 3.10 ydy. Third round of SHOP pre-ER
Rolled BABA Aug10 calls down to 35d twice collecting $1552 profit.
BTO BABA pre-ER Aug3 202.5 @ 1.46. Third round of BABA pre-ER
BTO WYNN pre-ER Aug3 167.5c @ 3.60. Fourth round of WYNN pre-ER
BTO LRCX strangle Aug3 175c/167.5p @7.37. Will hold through earnings for a pop or drop.
BTO CHKP post-ER based on reaction to earnings. Aug17 120c @ .85
BTO GRUB post-ER trade Aug10 140c @ 2. Will buy more layers if pullbacks.
@mortlightman Just took CAT profits….
@mortlightman
Just took CAT profits. I’ll post details later but almost a double.
GOOGL Supercharger
Sold GOOGL Jul27 1240/1250 BuCS (aka supercharger) @ 9.40 for 20% profit. Bot @ 7.79.
GOOGL has been a gravy train in the Bistro today.:-)
#supercharger
SPX champagne
Opened some SPX Fri/Mon calendars 2 call x 1 put. Bot Jul 27/30 2840 call cal @ 1.60 x 2 to take advantage of the current bubbly (bid) in the market. Bot Jul27/30 2810 put cal @ 1.75 x 1 for protection against an earnings or trade war catastrophe.
BABA pre-earnings
Sold BABA Aug3 192.5c @ 4.60. Bot @ 2 ydy.
Bot BABA Aug3 197.5c @ 2.07 using half of the profits for a third round of pre-ER. BABA is rivaling LMT for 1st place in terms of profits on this quarter’s pre-ER trades.
#preearnings
SHOP pre-earnings
Sold SHOP Aug3 180c @ 4.40 for 42% profit. Bot @ 3.10 ydy. Third round of SHOP pre-ER.
#preearnings
DIA QQQ SPY
Adding some fuzzy layers on today’s “sort of” weakness. No hedges yet may add after earnings frenzy or close for profit.
Bot DIA fuzzy Aug24 252c/-252p/249p @ 1.82.
Bot SPY fuzzy Aug24 282c/-282p/279p @ 2.10
Bot QQQ fuzzy Aug24 181c/-181p/178p @ 1.99
#fuzzy
EOG pre-earnings
Sold EOG Aug3 128c @ 2.30 for 130% profit. Bot @ 1. This is second round of pre-ER.
#preearnings
#earningsrunup
Moving from ratios to fuzzies
Due to low IV, I’m moving to fuzzies for my core trades. On Friday, I closed my ratio trades: DIA FAS IWM PANW RHT SSO TQQQ TWTR XLY all for profit except TWTR. I was able to roll long call deltas down multiple times to collect income on most of these trades. It was a good run in July.
Opened new fuzzies yesterday, Aug24 expiration: DIA, IBB, IWM, QQQ, and SPY. Will reset these positions when core is double the debit paid.
Life is busy so not posting the specifics of all these trades. Most of you know the drill on income trades better than I do. Questions? Please ask.
GOOGL supercharger
Now the post-earnings fun begins. When GOOGL rallies 3% or more after earnings, it’s very likely to continue moving up for the next 2 to 4 weeks. Historical patterns. I love them.
Bot GOOGL Jul27 1240/1250 BuCS @ 7.79. GTC order to sell @ 9.40
Adjustment plan: If GOOGL moves below 1250 on a close, I will roll my short call up to transform this trade into a BeCS or add a call credit spread to create a fly. Thanks @smasty160!
#supercharger
Pre-earnings update
As mentioned earlier, I take profits on these trades on big green days.
Out last round of BA for 10%
Out CAT, INTC, and SHOP for 40% profit
Out 60% of EOG for 50% profit
Out BABA for 115% profit (held less than 24 hours)
Out WYNN, the struggler, for average profit of 15%
Still in AET, EA, EOG, TTWO. Watching several for a second round and watching AZO, ADSK, and CRM for a first round.
#preearnings
#earningsrunup
IBB fuzzy
The intent of this trade is to capture potential earnings pops from the top components in IBB.
Bot IBB Sep21 119c/-119p/116p @ 2.26. Unhinged.:-) First layer.
BABA CAT AET
Added a few more small pre-earnings positions. After this week, watching AZO, ADSK, and CRM.
Bot CAT Aug3 139c @ 2.45
Bot BABA Aug3 190c @ 1.95
Bot AET Aug3 190c @ 2.10 (wide bid-ask so riskier trade but good historical pattern)
#preearnings
#earningsrunup
GOOG pre earnings
Took five small long positions in GOOG for pre earnings momentum. Closed the last three today for a loss. Date shown is when I entered the trade. All were Jul27 expiry.
Jul2, Call credit spread, 10%
Jul2, Call credit spread, 27%
Jul2, Call credit spread, -35%
Jul9, Call credit spread, -35%
Jul12, Put credit spread, -11%
WYNN SWKS earnings
As @fuzzballl mentioned earlier, some companies move their earnings dates around making pre-ER trades more difficult. WYNN is one of those companies. They moved their tentative earnings date from 7/26 to 8/1 but still not confirmed. This is probably a good one to avoid and SWKS too.
CHKP pre-earnings
Sold Aug17 115c @ 1.11 for 71% profit. Bot @ 1.90.
This is my last round of CHKP pre-earnings.
NVDA supercharger
I’ll be trading pre-earnings on NVDA but it’s a little early to put on unhedged calls so starting with a supercharger.
Bot NVDA Aug17 230/240 BuCS @ 7.60. GTC order to close at 9.40.
#supercharger
TTWO
At the risk of inundating you with pre-earnings ideas, here’s another from CMLViz. By the way, this flurry will settle down in a couple weeks and I will focus on something else until October. lol.
http://www.cmlviz.com/research.php?number=12196&cml_article_id=20180714_the-five-year-repeating-momentum-pattern-into-earnings-in-take-two-interactive-software-inc
I’m in TTWO already but prefer to let you pick your own delta and expiration on this one.:-) I’ll be out of town tomorrow so got in early.
BA and LMT pre-earnings notes
I plan to re-enter BA on a pullback if we get one. With 7 days until the earnings report, there’s room to run on a pb.
If you’re in LMT, we only have 6 days until earnings. I have a GTC order to sell my LMT calls at 40% above yesterday’s closing price. I know that some of you are trying this for the first time so will let you know what I’m doing. Here’s to happy and profitable trading!
EOG pre-earnings
Bot EOG Aug3 128c @ 1.05 x2. Adding a layer on today’s pullback.
AMTD BA pre-earnings
Bot AMTD Jul27 58c @ .60 ydy, Sold @ .95
Bot BA Jul27 370c @ 3.45 ydy. Sold @ 4.70
Sometimes these trades are short lived. 40% GTC targets hit or exceeded.
LMT recommendation from CML
Can you access this? http://www.cmlviz.com/research.php?number=12203&cml_article_id=20180717_the-one-week-pre-earnings-momentum-trade-with-options
DIA FAS SSO TQQQ XLY long calls
Rolled long call deltas on some ratio trades down from 70-75 to 62-63 delta for credit.
DIA 1.47 credit
FAS 1.36 credit
SSO 1.50 credit
TQQQ 1.38 credit
XLY 1.51 credit
Collected $2166.
BA TTWO
More pre-earnings trades
Bot BA Jul27 370c @ 3.35. GTC order to sell @ 4.70 (40% profit target)
Bot TTWO Aug3 128c @ 4.80. GTC order to sell @ 6.72 (40% profit target)
http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180717184758_ecjTvU5uaPtQ4V5G
EOG earnings momentum
EOG earnings momentum
Bot EOG Aug3 128c @ 1.49 x3 using a 16/1 custom setup. Will add more on pullbacks.
http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180717154145_XFW5sKDzPilfg84I
16/1 setup = Enter 16 days before earnings. Exit one day before earnings. Pick an option expiration that covers the earnings report date. Choose a long call with the delta that gives the best results based on historical data. Standard setups in CML are 3/1, 7/1, and 14/1. Standard delta is 40.
Pre-earnings update
Many of my pre-ER trades hit exit date or closed for target profit while I was away.
INFY 5%, ABT 40%, ASML 40%, AMZN 40%, MSFT 40%, LMT 72% (3rd round).
Converted NFLX BUCS to IC yesterday and closed put side today for 20% profit on IC position.
Still trading CAT, CHKP, GOOGL, INTC, LMT, MA, SHOP, SPOT and WYNN. Added a layer of INTC and a new round of LMT today on the pullback.
INTC LMT SPX
Pre-ER. Bot INTC Jul27 53c @ .66
Pre-ER. Bot LMT Jul27 330c @ 1.85
Bot SPX Jul20/23 2815 call calendar @ 1.35
Bot SPX Jul20/23 275 put calendar @ 1.40
PANW RHT long calls
Rolled delta down on PANW long call from Aug 210c to 215c for 3.42 credit.
Rolled delta down on RHT long call from Aug 142c to 145c for 2.05 credit.
Current positions are now fully paid for by credit rolls on the long calls. Hedges still have extrinsic value but will need to managed soon.
#unbalanceddiagonal
INFY CAT earnings momentum
Bot INFY Jul20 20c @ .37 average price. Sold @ .40 one day before earnings report.
Bot first layer of CAT Aug3 144c @ 1.75.
EA GOOGL ISRG MA profits
Taking early pre-ER profits before I head out on a 4-day running trip with limited internet access.
EA. Sold Jul27 152.5c @ 3.10. Bot @ 2.45 average price. Still holding Jul27 157.5c at average price of 1.70.
GOOGL. Sold Jul27 1240/1260 cds @ 3.70. Bot @ 2.90
ISRG. Sold Jul20 490/505 cds @ 9.25. Bot @ 6.45. Still holding Jul20 535c @ 2.70.
MA. Sold Jul27 207.5c @ 2.52. Bot @ 1.47. Still holding MA Ju27 212.5c @ 1.11
#earningsrunup
SPOT early earnings momentum
This is a risky pre-ER trade because the stock has only been public since April 3. However, it showed strong momentum going into May earnings, is in a squeeze, and the Jul27 IV is already expanding.
Bot SPOT Jul27 BuCS 190/200 @ 2.70. Will place GTC order on Jul19 (7 days before ER) to close at 40% above the price at that time.
#earningsrunup
CHKP pre-earnings
Sold Aug17 110c @ 2.78. Bot @ .85.
Still holding Aug17 115c @ .80
#earningsrunup
AZO supercharger
BTO Jul20 660/670 BuCS @ 7.61. GTC order to sell at 9.40.
Based on the daily squeeze and a pullback today.
#supercharger
PANW RHT rolls
Rolled PANW Jul13 207.5c to Jul20 215c for 2.82 debit
Rolled RHT Jul13 142c to Jul20 145c @ .44 debit
Be happy when your short calls get run over. Really?? 🙂
#shortcalls
#unbalanceddiagonal
Pre-earnings momentum
Adding to existing positions based on pullback and CML backtests
Bot ABT Jul20 64c @ .37
Bot CHKP Aug17 115c @ .80
Bot EA Jul27 157.5c @ 1.51
Bot MSFT Jul20 104c @ 1.17
Bot NFLX Jul20 cds 445/455 @ 2.68
Bot WYNN Jul27 172.5c @ 2.08
#earningsrunup
Adding short protection
Layering in some short protection but carefully as this selloff is contained so far and the obvious suspects like GOOGL and AMZN are not participating.
Bot SPY Jul20 275p @ .97 x5
Bot VIX Jul25 13/15 cds @ .84 x3
#markets
TWTR roll
Rolled TWTR Jul13 45.5c to Jul20 43.5c @ .92 credit.
TWTR is going the wrong direction but overall trades are profitable so hanging in for now.
#unbalanceddiagonal
#shortcalls
XLY hedge
I let my XLY long calls run unhedged for the last couple days based on Friday’s powerful rally. Added a BeCS hedge today using 5×3 ratio. Wanted a hedge based on NDX price behavior at 7300 roundy.
STO XLY Jul20 112.5/113.5 BeCS @ .31 x 5. Holding XLY Aug17 110c x 3 as core.
MRVL roll
Sold Aug17 21c and bought Aug17 22c for .64 credit. Rolling long call delta down from 76 to 63.
Still holding Jul20 22.5 short call for extrinsic.
My goal is to pull enough cash out to cover the trade. This tactic only works in a rally or a bullish trend. I won’t share all of these trades but a couple people asked for more info. @mortlightman
#unbalanceddiagonal
DIA roll
Rolling both core position and call credit spread.
Sold Aug17 245c and bought Aug17 247c for 1.45 credit. Rolling long call delta from 70 to 60.
BTC Jul20 249/251 BeCS and STO Jul20 251/253 BeCS for .43 debit. Switched from short call hedge due to current market conditions.
This is the third time I’ve rolled my DIA core from a 70-80 delta to a 60-65 delta. Rolling the core delta down allows me to maintain my 3×2 ratio trade while pulling cash out to pay for trade. This is a free trade now. @mortlightman
#unbalanceddiagonal
LMT pre-earnings roll
Bot LMT Jul27 312.5c @ 2.00 x 2. Sold @ 3.90.
Used proceeds for another round. Bot LMT Jul27 317.5c @ 2.35 x 2
#earningsrunup
WYNN another round of pre-earnings
Bot Jul27 172.5c (30 delta) @ 2.35 x2.
This is based on a 14/1 CML study and a turnaround story on the chart.
#earningsrunup
BA NVDA WYNN
Bot BA Jul27 360c @ 2.80 ydy for pre-ER. Sold @ 3.85.
Bot NVDA 240/245c @ 2.35 for supercharger. Sold @ 4.
Bot WYNN Jul27 162.5c @ 3.15 on July 5. Sold @ 6.05.
#earningsrunup
#supercharger
More pre earnings
Bot EA Jul27 152.5c @ 2.41. First layer 1 lot on today’s pullback
Bot ABT Jul18 64c @ .33. Starter position 5 lots
#earningsrunup
SPX rallies (aka SPX champagne)
Bot SPX Jan 11/13 call calendar @ 1.75. Looking for a double by Wed.
Bot SPX Jan9 call @ 1.75. Sold @ 3.50. Lucky on this one.
Sold SPY Butterfly Jul13 274c/282c/284c 2/-4/2 @ 3.73 x4. Bot @ 2.13
Options Bistro 