#FOMC minutes Wednesday at 2pm ET
Link to Calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=18&month=11&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
Category Archives: Uncategorized
ISRG NVDA PTON
BTC $ISRG 525/535 #BuPS @0.25. Was STO 11/8 @1.25.
BTC $NVDA 225/235 Nov 29 #BeCS @0.4. Originally STO as 220/230 Oct 17@1.10, rolled 11/14 @-0.20.
OX $NVDA Nov 15 180/190 11/15 #BuPS. Was STO 11/5@1.05. (unless things tank this afternoon)
STO $NVDA 180/190 Dec 20 #BuPS @1.65.
From Yesterday, following Jeff’s Butterfly: BTO $NVDA Nov 15 +210c/-212.5c/-217.5c/+220 Condor @-0.45
Today: BTC $NVDA Nov 15 212.5c @0.18 Gain of (5.27 – 0.18) = +5.09
BTC $NVDA Nov 15 217.5c @0.08 Gain of (3.2 – 0.08) = +3.12
STC $NVDA Nov 15 220c @0.06 Loss of (2.4-0.06) = – 2.34
Rolled the $NVDA 210c into a Dec 20 230/240 #BeCS @+0.90 with 6.52-0.2 = 6.32 loss realized, so far, on the 210c.
All of which just about adds up to hopefully, the Call spread expires worthless and covers brokerage fees.
Rolled $PTON 27 Nov 15 27 Calls (covered) // Nov 22 28 Calls @+0.30, with $PTON @~27.6. Underlying was BTO at 27 on the day of IPO. May have jumped too early, as its pulled back under $27 again today.
Rolled Up/Out $PTON Nov 15 26 long puts // Nov 22 27 long puts @0.85.
FOMO, irrational exuberance, when are…
FOMO, irrational exuberance, when are people going to learn buy low sell high or short high and buy low. Everyone piling in when the market is more expensive than it has ever been………
Bloomberg had something on the other day that said the smart money is already positioning for a pull back for what it is worth. But I am not going short until it is established.
Whats the famous quote, the market can be irrational longer than I can be solvent 🙂
More VXX closed
#VXXgame Sold to close $VXX Jan 17th 20 puts for 3.50. Bought between Jan 22 and Aug 27 for avg price of 1.30. Sold four batches so far at 2.65, 3.00, 3.25, and 3.50.
Still holding a final batch. Going for 4.00.
Update on week’s trades
Closed out $X $13.50 puts expiring today at $24 loss. Didn’t want to commit $2700 in capital for an unknown amount of time to break even.
$AGRX is down 30% this morning on news that Twirla review will be extended 90 days. Unrealized loss is only $2.00 right now, and I picked up an additional June $2.5 Call at $0.75. Planned on holding through Jan anyways so no change in plans.
$ADMP still holding, no word from FDA yet on their Naloxone high dose drug.
Have a good weekend!
ISRG NVDA RTN TNA
#CoveredCalls #Earnings #ShortPuts – Not much left to do this week…
ISRG: Booking it a week early.
Bought to Close ISRG NOV 22 2019 530.0 Put @ .40 (sold for 5.50)
NVDA: Booking the earnings and selling a new one on the dip.
Bought to Close NVDA NOV 15 2019 200.0 Put @ .14 (sold for 3.35)
Sold NVDA DEC 20 2019 190.0 Put @ 2.60 (early on this one)
RTN: Long time stock position going away
Stock called away at 185.0 (basis 182.90)
TNA: Long time stock position going away.
Stock called away at 54.50 (basis 41.30)
DIS covered calls
Sold $DIS 12/20 155 calls @ .99. Covered by long stock. Delta 20/stock currently at 145.74.
TastyWorks trading challenge
Apologies in advance if this was already discussed previously. Didn’t know how many of you traded on TastyWorks– I finally read up a bit on their trading challenge and took a leap this morning. They give you $5,000.00 in capital to paper trade Stocks and ETFs only for two trading sessions, and any gains you make up to $250.00 are added to your individual account as soon as it’s funded with $2,000.00. Any losses are ignored.
I decided to roll dice on $JD earnings tomorrow before open with 149 shares at $33.39. I have a GTC order online already at $35.25 to capture the $250.00 if it swings up at least 5.57%.
CSCO long term short puts
Sold $CSCO 4/17/2020 40 puts @ 1.08 with the stock at 44.92.
#FallingKnife
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 15th 3045/3065-3120/3140 condors for .70, IV 8.62%, SPX 3096
NVDA butterfly
#Earnings Bought Nov 15th 217.5/220/222.5 call #EMButterfly for .19.
SHOP
#CoveredCalls – A little roll out and up…
Rolled SHOP NOV 15 2019 295.0 Call to NOV 22 2019 297.5 Call @ .80 credit
/ES/SPX/SPY #hedge Closed out the…
/ES/SPX/SPY #hedge
Closed out the /ES 2690/2700 back ratio for 300 or a $3025 loss. Just means the market did not crash.
So I have been trying to figure out a cheaper way to do these but still get the 10% coverage for a 10% down move. I came up with a modified risk twist/unbalanced butterfly. Cost about half as much as the back ratio.
BTO the Mar 2020 /ES 2790/2780/2770 butterfly. Ratio is one 2790 sold, bought three 2780 and sold one 2770 for $1690. About half the cost of the back ratio. Still good coverage and could always tweak the ratio if the market really starts to move. So this will only cost about $6800 per year instead of 12k but the deductible stays about the same.
Here is the graph and just put his on 10 minutes ago so can probably do the same. For every 100k in the account I would do 1.
ROKU BUPS / BX Puts
#bups
$ROKU STO 12/20/2019120/130 BUPS at 2.50
#shortputs
$BX STO 11/15 53.5 puts at 1.15. Building a stock position. $BX being added to the Morgan Stanley MSCI Index 11/26.
EXPE earnings disaster
Rolled the 125 #jadelizard converted to a #fuzzy down to 95/95 strikes. Short option 15 DTE. When all cleared my cost basis is now 37.33. Need about 0.33 per week to break even and have until Jan 2022 to do it.
I am done with earnings. Too random and binary. 6 out of 9 of my earnings trades this year imploded even with some limited risk positions.
This one trade reduced my yearly profits by about 20% for the year even being only a 7% position in my portfolio.
Black swans are more common than the options price for.
#spycraft Added the Dec 13…
Added the Dec 13 put side since we are just chopping for now. Now that I put the trade on watch the market move.
STO 296/292 CCS for 0.29. 5 contracts completing the IC with the calls at 318/322. 0.63 credit total.
SOXL
BTC December 20, 125 put at .45, sold on November 15 at 4.90 and wish I had sold more.
#earnings #closing HLF October 29,…
NVDA earnings analysis
#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 15, 2019 AC +7.25%
May 16, 2019 AC -2.28%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -2.37%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +29.80% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 8.70%
Bias 2.74%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 208.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 194.41 to 221.59
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 189.90 to 226.10
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (29.8%): 146.02 to 269.98
Based on DOWN max only (-18.8%): 169.00
Open to requests for other symbols.
NTAP Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – Stock is rallying so booking it now…
Bought to Close NTAP NOV 15 2019 56/61/62.5 Jade Lizards @ .75 (sold for 1.62)
#earnings #closing WMT WMT bought…
DIS/NFLX
I closed out the rest of the arbitrage at 22.25 his morning.
NVDA Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – My 17th time in this thing in 2019. Highest strike I’ve sold is 165 so I can’t believe I’m doing this. Still wouldn’t mind a pullback to get a better roll in Dec for my DITM covered call.
Sold NVDA Nov 15 2019 200.0 Put @ 3.35
LABU CC Rolled / SPX 1 DTE Expired
#coveredcalls
$LABU BTC 11/29 40 calls to 12/6 42 for .40 debit.
#spx1dte
$SPX 3050/3060/3110/3130 expired. STO at .50. Thank you @jeffcp66
X Short Puts
Been pretty quiet on trading this week. Aside from wishing I took long calls in $DIS prior to earnings and Dis+ launch, I sold two Nov 15 $13.50 Puts in $X yesterday at $0.21 x 2. I’ve never had stock put to me or called away yet, and there are weeklies in the underlying so figured I’d give it a try. Sold puts with stock around $13.75 or so, and it dipped past my strike today. I’ll update if I get stock with covered call for next week.
CRWD Dec puts
Sold $CRWD 42.50 puts @ 1.55 with the stock at 52.19 up over 11% today. Delta 18. Earnings 12/5 after market so will be watching closely. IV rank 70.
NTAP Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – Small position just to have something to do. Playing it to the downside at the expected move and 50ma with no upside risk.
Sold NTAP NOV 15 2019 56/61/62.5 Jade Lizards @ 1.62
#earnings WMT Sold Dec. 20,…
#earnings WMT NTAP
WMT Sold Dec. 20, 115/125 #shortstrangles for 2.62.
NTAP Sold Dec. 20, 50/70 strangle for 1.17
Thanks for the data Jeff.
dis/nflx
Sold to close 1/2 of the arbitrage I put on yesterday for $20.65 and kept the other half. The cost was 13.92
CSCO earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $CSCO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 14, 2019 AC -8.61% Biggest DOWN
May 15, 2019 AC +6.65% Biggest UP
Feb. 13, 2019 AC +1.89%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC +5.50%
Aug. 15, 2018 AC +2.96%
May 16, 2018 AC -3.76%
Feb. 14, 2018 AC +4.72%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +5.18%
Aug. 16, 2017 AC -4.01%
May 17, 2017 AC -7.21%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC +2.37%
Nov. 16, 2016 AC -4.81%
Avg (+ or -) 4.81%
Bias 0.07%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 48.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 46.22 to 50.78
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 46.17 to 50.83
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.6%): 44.32 to 52.68
Based on UP max only (+6.7%): 51.73
Open to requests for other symbols.
Closing SWKS
#Earnings . Sold to close $SWKS Nov15/Nov22 101 #DoubleCalendar for 1.40. Bought yesterday for .732.
Only partial fill so far.
WMT earnings analysis
#Earnings $WMT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 15, 2019 BO +6.22%
May 16, 2019 BO +1.43%
Feb. 19, 2019 BO +2.21%
Nov. 15, 2018 BO -1.96%
Aug. 16, 2018 BO +9.33%
May 17, 2018 BO -1.90%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -10.17% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 16, 2017 BO +10.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 17, 2017 BO -1.58%
May 18, 2017 BO +3.22%
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +2.99%
Nov. 17, 2016 BO -3.08%
Avg (+ or -) 4.58%
Bias 1.47%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 120.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 115.34 to 124.66
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 114.50 to 125.50
ased on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.9%): 106.93 to 133.07
Based on DOWN max only (-10.2%): 107.80
Open to requests for other symbols.
UVXY
#ShortCalls #BearCallSpreads – Taking advantage of the massive volatility pop this morning….
Sold UVXY NOV 29 2019 20.0 Calls @ .70
Sold UVXY JAN 17 2020 24.0/34.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .90
#assignment #coveredcalls UBER I was…
#assignment #coveredcalls UBER
I was assigned 100 shares of UBER on a Dec. 36 put, first sold Aug. 9 and rolled 3 times.
Sold a Nov. 22, 27.50 call for .40, cost basis is 33.53. I guess I’ll stop using LYFT.
NTAP earnings analysis
#Earnings $NTAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 14, 2019 AC +3.93%
May 22, 2019 AC -8.10%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -5.47%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC -11.72% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 15, 2018 AC -3.58%
May 23, 2018 AC +1.93%
Feb. 14, 2018 AC -4.89%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +15.91% Biggest UP
Aug. 16, 2017 AC -6.72%
May 24, 2017 AC +3.53%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC +4.18%
Nov. 16, 2016 AC +6.24%
Avg (+ or -) 6.35%
Bias -0.40%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 60.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 55.03 to 65.97
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 56.66 to 64.34
ased on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.9%): 50.87 to 70.13
Based on DOWN max only (-11.7%): 53.41
Open to requests for other symbols.
TWTR NUGT Puts Rolled / LABU Covered Calls / ZM CC Rolled / GLOB Put Closed
#shortputs
$TWTR BTC 11/15 32 put and STO 11/22 32 put at even. Getting time but not paying for it.
$NUGT BTC 11/15 36 put and STO 12/13 36 put at .25 credit. Getting time and getting paid.
#coveredcalls
$LABU STO 12/20 45 calls at 1.65
$ZM BTC 11/15 68.50 calls and STO 11/29 for added .35 credit. Stock at 68.03.
#shortputs
$GLOB BTC 11/15 90 put at .40. STO 10/14 at 2.80. Thank you @ramie77
SPX 1 dte
#SPX1dte Sod to Open $SPX Nov 13th 3050/3060-3110/3120 condors for .50. Ten-wide, double position.
IV 7.61%, SPX 3088.
VIX hedge
#Hedge I’m calling it a hedge, but I’m not net long or short so it’s really just a trade.
Bought to open $VIX Jan 21st 17/20 call spread for .80
SWKS Dub Cal
#Earnings Bought to open $SWKS Nov15/Nov22 101 #DoubleCalendar for 0.732 (avg price).
More VXX closed
#VXXGame Sold to close next batch of $VXX Jan 2020 long 20 puts for 3.25. Bought for avg price of 1.30. Still holding more.
SPX 4-dte closed
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 15th 3050/3025 put spreads for 1.35. Sold yesterday for 1.75. I’m not liking the look of today’s action, so not going to let this get worse.
PLMR
STO January 45 puts at 3.50
TNA WYNN
#LongStock – Here’s my excitement for the day….
TNA: Sold 1 share @ 64.10
WYNN: Sold 1 share @ 122.54
Oddball shares sitting from old dividends before I changed my divvy payout preference to cash. 🙂 🙂 🙂
Closing ROKU
Bought to close $ROKU 12/20 105/95 bull put spread @ .75. Sold for 1.78 on 11/8.
TQQQ long LEAPs closed
#LongLEAPs Sold to Close $TQQQ Jan 2020 66.67 long calls for 11.05.
Starting buying on Oct 4th, 2018, LAST year, for average price of 10.12 over 5 accounts.
I reduced cost basis by selling covered calls (and sometimes puts), but I’m behind on bookkeeping so not sure by how much yet. It looks like I reduced it by only a little on some accounts, up to about a half on others. I’ve decided to close now as I do not trust the market for remainder of year. I do think higher is certainly possible, but that we could also see a pullback soon that would not regain current levels until after expiration.
EWZ
#ShortPuts – A little starter position on the pullback to the 200ma. I’ll add if it doesn’t hold here…
Sold EWZ DEC 20 2019 40.0 Puts @ .74
DIS/NFLX
I am buying an arbitrage.
BTO December 140 calls on DIS and Buying the same dollar amount of 290 puts On NFLX
SWKS earnings analysis
#Earnings $SWKS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +0.46%
May 2, 2019 AC -3.51%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC +11.49%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC -8.08% Biggest DOWN
July 19, 2018 AC -5.35%
May 3, 2018 AC +4.28%
Feb. 5, 2018 AC +10.44%
Nov. 6, 2017 AC -4.41%
July 20, 2017 AC -0.15%
April 27, 2017 AC -4.28%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC +13.01% Biggest UP
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +0.53%
Avg (+ or -) 5.50%
Bias 1.20%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 102.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 95.27 to 108.73
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 96.39 to 107.61
ased on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.0%): 88.73 to 115.27
Based on DOWN max only (-8.1%): 93.76
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 15th 3050/3025 put spreads for 1.75, IV 9.37%, SPX close 3087
Sold this after the bell. I was wrong about a rally today but still think we have higher to go before this peters out.
Expiring today: 3065/3046 put credit spread and 3110/3125 call debit spread, trades placed Friday for net credit of .40.
#earnings #closing ROKU and another…
AAPL BUPS
$AAPL STO 12/20 240/250 BUPS at 1.30
@smasty Sue, what is your…
@smasty
Sue, what is your plan for TGT #suecollar trade?
With the earning coming up, puts are very expensive.
#earnings #closing DIS Finally able…
#spycraft Starter position this morning….
Starter position this morning.
STO the Dec 13 318/322 CCS for 0.34 when the market opened lower.
You could do better now or move up a strike. At the time the short was at delta 15-16.
5 contracts so max risk around $1700 with commissions.
Will wait on adding put spread until a bigger pull back.
Plan is to add new positions each week and manage at 21 DTE or 50% profits, or big movement to the short strike whichever occurs first. If the short delta hits 30-32 would modify.
UVXY closed
#Earnings Sold to close final $UVXY Jan 2020 20 puts for 4.75. Avg purchase price 1.85. Still holding long $VXX 20 puts.
#coveredcalls TWTR Rolled Nov. 15,…
#coveredcalls TWTR
Rolled Nov. 15, 30.50 call to Dec. 20, 31 call for .58. TWTR shares were assigned, cost basis is 33.11
TSLA
#ShortCalls Rolled Nov 15 342.50 call to Nov 22 350 call for .63 credit. This is paired with a Jan2021 180 short put. Wouldn’t mind owning TSLA down there at 180.
UDOW
#ShortPuts – First time in this one. Aggressive sale inside the expected move but at the 50ma.
Sold UDOW DEC 20 2019 105.0 Put @ 2.90
Long term Pharm plays
Two small caps have some binary events coming up, and I wanted to play them.
$ADMP – Adamis Pharmaceuticals has a delayed PDUFA response from FDA on a higher dose Naloxone injection. Supposed to come out Oct 31st, but has been delayed. Open interest on the $2.50 Calls for Dec 2019 and March 2020 are over 19,000 this morning, but going out all the way to June didn’t cost much. BTO 5x $2.50 Call 6/19/20 at $0.20 at $1.00 debit. Price target for next few months would be $3-4.00 on the stock with approval, expecting total loss/lottery ticket with a CRL or other bad news. Stock is trading at about $1.00 this morning.
$AGRX – Agile Therapeutics has a contraceptive patch Twirla, with a PDUFA date of Nov. 16th. They’ve had two previous CRLs in the past years on the patch, but an advisory committee met late October and overwhelmingly supported it due to a lack of similar products. BTO 1x $2.50 Call 6/19/20 at $0.90. Price target would be $4.00, I will keep this one into next year most likely regardless of outcome. Stock is at about $2.24 at time of post.
There’s a great website I use that summarizes upcoming Biotech/Pharma dates, pipelines, etc. if anyone is interested: https://www.biopharmcatalyst.com/
Disclaimer: I’ve only used free services on this site, like their FDA calendar and weekly watch lists. Never paid money for subscription services as I’ve seen mixed reviews online.
BIDU Earnings
Bought the following on 11/6 in anticipation of BIDU earnings after hours same day:
1x 11/8 $120 Call, 1x 11/8 $125 Call, 2x 11/8 $130 Call at Debit of: $1.19.
BIDU failed to break some overhead resistance after hours, so I figured I’d get out with a small win– sold all positions for $1.72 about an hour after open on Thursday– should’ve hung on a bit more as the stock blasted about $6 higher during midday trading and my $120 Call would’ve been closer to $4.85 or so by itself. That’s one thing I love about options trading as you get lessons everyday!
DERM Earnings
Took a position in $DERM for earnings on 11/5 (stock around $6.80 or so)- BTO 3x $8.00 Calls exp. 11/15 at $0.13. Stock didn’t pop too much after earnings, but their biggest competitor $ANAB failed on their Phase 2b. STC the same calls on Friday for $0.97 a piece, for a net profit of $252.00.
Expirations
The Good, Expiring worthless:
$SPX Nov 8th 3040/3060-3110/3130 condors, sold yesterday for .80
$DIS Nov 8th 130/128 put spreads, sold yesterday for .65
The Bad, although not Ugly,
$MNST Nov 8th 59/60.5/62 EM call butterfly, bought yesterday for .205
$HUM Nov 8th EM put and call butterflys, bought for .32 total on Tuesday
First time I tried these, both could have been exited for small profit at one point, but I waited to see if I could get more.
UVXY
#ShortCalls – Cleaning up a few of these…
Bought to Close UVXY NOV 15 2019 25.0 Calls @ .06 (sold for .69)
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 20 2019 40.0/50.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .10 (sold for 1.30)
SPX 1-dte risk reversal
#SPX1dte After getting stopped out on call side last Friday and Monday, I am taking a bullish bet for Monday, since yesterday and today SPX was nearly flat. Time for another surge.
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 11th 3065/3045 put spread for .68 credit
Bought to open Nov 11th 3110/3125 call spreads for .28 debit
I did the above as one trade for a .40 credit. If we gap open I will look to sell the call spread early.
The Haps Next Week
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=11&month=11&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
SQ
#CoveredCalls – Finally got out of these at a nickel after quite a few rolls collecting premium.
Bought to Close SQ NOV 8 2019 63.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 3.90)
Sold SQ NOV 22 2019 63.5 Calls @ 1.21
ROKU put spread
Sold $ROKU 12/20 105/95 bull put spread @ 1.78. Stock at 121.06. Delta of short puts 21.
REGN WYNN
#CoveredCalls – Incredibly strong market so tough to do much with ITM covered calls. Trying a couple different things on these two. Looking forward to being out of these since they are the last of my bad entries in this particular account.
REGN – Assigned this stock at 380 and rode it all the way down to 270 while selling calls against. Reduced basis to 323 but now caught in the move up. One more roll to wait for a pullback. If that doesn’t happen I’ll let stock go and switch to some put selling to get the last few dollars needed.
Rolled REGN NOV 08 2019 305.0 Call to DEC 27 2019 310.0 Call @ .04 credit
WYNN: Not many good rolling options on this one so letting the stock go at 107. Basis on 200 shares was 113 so 6 dollar loss. Similar to the recent TNA repair I’m selling an extra put to get the entire 12 dollars back. See where these end up and go from there.
Sold 3 WYNN DEC 13 2019 122.0 Puts @ 4.05
EXPE Falling Knife
Sold $EXPE Apr 17 2020 75 puts @ 1.20
SQ closed
#Earnings . Sold to close $SQ Nov08/Nov15 61 #DoubleCalendar for 1.00. Bought Wednesday for .48
NFLX IBM BUPS Closed Early
#bups
$NFLX BTC 11/15 265/275 BUPS at .40. STO 10/17 at 1.60. Thank you @Raime
$IBM BTC 11/15 130/135 BUPS at .40. STO 10/17 at 2.25.
DIS bullish
#Earnings . Sold to Open $DIS Nov 8th 130/128 put spread for .65.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 8th 3040/3060-3110/3130 condors for .80, IV 7.69%, SPX 3085
#earning Strangle $UBER
$UBER STO 11/8 27.50/33.5 at 1.95. BTC @ .60. Thank you @jeff.
MNST earnings analysis
#Earnings $MNST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +2.96%
May 2, 2019 AC +8.82%
Feb. 27, 2019 AC +8.66%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -3.16%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +2.65%
May 8, 2018 AC -7.47%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC -14.43% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +1.17%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -1.14%
May 4, 2017 AC +3.30%
March 1, 2017 AC +12.75% Biggest UP
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.55%
Avg (+ or -) 5.84%
Bias 0.88%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 56.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 52.63 to 60.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 53.44 to 60.06
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.4%): 48.56 to 64.94
Based on UP max only (+12.8%): 63.99
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 