Another one to add to the #FallingKnife watch list…
Category Archives: Uncategorized
NWL
STO June 20 puts @.50
DIS earnings
#Earnings – Took a shot and the dealer pulled a 6 card “21” on me. Closed the ITM sides paying an extra penny to avoid exercise fees.
Bought to Close call portion of DIS 102/103/104 iron flies @ 1.01 (sold for .90). Puts should expire…
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign I didn’t get the continuation of yesterday’s rally at the open so I’ve been watching for direction…. now that we’ve made a new high it looks more promising. Closed one put spread when it looked like it might fail a third time. Now I’m looking to sell the call spreads as rolls from yesterday, and then I will consider how to roll this stopped spread:
Stopped $SPX Nov 20th 2565/2540 put spreads for 4.00. Sold for 2.10 on Wednesday.
AAOI
#ShortStrangles – She’s actually perking up a little bit. Gonna let out the leash and give it some room…selling against DITM puts so treating it like a covered call.
Rolled AAOI NOV 10 2017 44.0 Calls to NOV 24 2017 46.5 Calls @ .25 credit
Current position is an “inverted calendar”…short Dec 80.0 puts and short Nov 17 44.0 calls.
These are 36 points inverted with 19.90 premium received. To get back to even I need to squeeze the inversion in to narrower than the premium received. Stock gets in between and the entire thing goes away…still some work to do but getting there.
STMP
#CoveredCalls – Replacing this week’s…selling aggressively while she (hopefully) consolidates for awhile.
Sold STMP NOV 17 2017 175.0 Call @ 3.50
STO 12/22 EOG 98 puts at 1.05.
2 days down in a row. Is that a record?!
SPX hedge
#RocketManHedge – Synthetic short out in January. Gradually covering the cost (and a little more) while carrying a little downside protection. Going out to next Wed here since the Friday monthlies only trade until Thur at the close.
This week’s 2560 looks safe so:
Sold SPX NOV 15 2017 2565.0 Put @ 5.70
Closed Early SPX Campaign
#spxcampaign Closed Early
$SPX BTC 11/24 2645/2620 BECS @ 66% profit
Rolled NFLX Short Calls
#shortcalls
Rolled
$NFLX 11/10 202 call to 11/17 197.50 calls @ 1.00 credit (Covered)
HIMX
#SyntheticStock – So so earnings so looking weak. I may regret this but very aggressive sale slightly in the money…
Bought to Close HIMX NOV 10 2017 10.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .35)
Sold HIMX NOV 17 2017 10.0 Calls @ .50
EWZ
#SyntheticStock – Weak stock so staying aggressive with the front month sales…
Bought to Close EWZ NOV 10 2017 40.0 Calls @ .02 (sold for .46)
Sold EWZ NOV 24 2017 40.0 Calls @ .45
DIS
#SyntheticStock – The mouse is running…rolling front month up a strike for slight credit picking up another 1.05 of upside.
Rolled DIS NOV 10 2017 99.0 Calls to DEC 29 2017 100.0 Calls @ .05 credit
NVDA earnings
EFX puts
BTC January 50 puts @.05, originally sold for 1.15 so covered 2 months early.
Fuzzy, need a hand..
Fuzzy, I need your help on what and how you do with options on futures…
Happy Veterans Day
Wishing all Veterans a Happy Veterans Day..If you served, Thanks for putting yourself on the line..
I asked a question a…
I asked a question a few days ago and got two answers, so thanks for those. However, I think I didn’t word my question well or else I don’t understand the answers so I’m going to re-ask my question.
I’d like to know why PITM and Delta are essentially the same for a given strike on SPY but very different on VXX. Here’s an example from today’s TOS trade tab.
June 2018 ATM Puts
SPY: PITM = 54, Delta = 50
VXX: PITM = 62, Delta = 37
Theoretically, ATM strikes should be about 50 for both PITM and Delta, and they are for SPY. What is it about VXX and the calculations behind PITM and Delta that throws both PITM and Delta so far apart and away from 50?
================================
Original question and answers:
I have a question about VXX and delta.
During this wild bull market, I’ve been buying SPX calls and VXX puts. I buy the calls at about a 60 delta with a 200ish DTE. On the TOS and TastyWorks platforms, the PITM percentage is similar to delta. I use PITM because several years ago Sosnof made the case PITM is a better estimate for the probability of expiring in-the-money than is delta.
So this brings me to VXX. Delta and PITM are not even close to the same. At 200ish DTE, they are about 25 points apart.
My question is why are PITM and delta so different for VXX, and which is a better estimate of the probability of expiring in-the-money? I ask because it clearly affects strike selection and potentially affects when to roll or close.
from vxxkelly: Steve, The difference with $VXX is likely explained by the skew. Take a quick look at the June 18 options. ATM the puts and calls are trading almost equal, but go up $10 on the calls and down $10 on the puts. Massive difference in the pricing, the calls are going for more than 2X the puts.
1) $VXX is a decaying asset vs any given stock or index that isn’t, the market knows this
2) If there were a volatility spike, there is significant risk to the short calls, so people who are selling them want a premium for the risk they are taking.
From hcgdavis: And that is where you find the “edge” in trading vol. products!
SPX Campaign / Short Puts / Short Calls / Expired / Closed Early
#spxcampaign
$SPX STO 11/20 2545/2565 BUPS @ 3.10
$SPX STO 12/8 2485/2510 BUPS @ 2.65 Thank you @jeffcp66 IC
$SPX STO 12/8 2675/2650 BECS @ .55
$SPX STO 11/24 2505/2525 BUPS @ 1.25
#shortputs
$NVDA STO 12/15 170/185 BUPS @ 2.35
$ADBE STO 12/15 167.50/177.50 BUPS @ 1.45 Thank you @thomberg1201
$AMZN STO 11/17 1085/1095 BUPS @ 1.25
$OSTK STO 12/15 30/40 BUPS @ 1.82 (Bridget at OMM)
#shortcalls
$BABA STO 12/15 195/190 BECS @ 1.50
Expired Full Profit
$SPX 11/8 2515/2540 Thank you birthday guru
Closed Early
$CAT BTC 11/17 145/140 BECS @ 58% profit
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign $SPX
Closed Nov 22nd 2550/2525 put spreads for 2.70. Sold for 2.80 this morning. This was a mistake that I sold it, so I took it off once we bounced back. Covered commissions.
Closed Nov 17th 2550/2575 call spreads for 20.30. Sold last Friday for 19.00. Will roll tomorrow.
Sold Nov 22nd 2595/2600 call spreads for 6.65. A roll from the 2585/2610 spread closed earlier today for 5.95.
DIS earnings
#Earnings – Just for fun planning on hardly any movement. This is obviously separate from my #SyntheticStock position…
Sold DIS 102/103/104 iron flies @ .90 risking .10 to make .90 with a 3.15 expected move.
Tomorrow the banks are off,…
Tomorrow the banks are off, so the market will be slow
Futures
$SVXY
On the small spike this afternoon.
STO SVXY Nov 17 $80 puts @ $0.41
Happy B’day Jeff…
PCLN
Guess they’re not going out of business after all? 🙂
VIX juss can’t stop it
Just as happened on Oct 25th, the VIX peaked just shy of cancelling the Upside Warning. We are now on yet another rally off a small dip in SPX.
I did my first and only #InverseCondors last week, and am now white-knuckling through these dips for them to expire next week. If we can keep near the highs until then, I will have significantly reduced my ITM status on the call spread side, and I will pare down my put spread positions in anticipation of a deeper pullback. That’s the plan, if the market can hold off on any deeper dives until then. If not, my ITM positions will be puts rather than calls!
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign $SPX
Yesterday:
Closed Nov 15th 2540/2565 call spreads for 23.30. Sold for 20.70 on Nov 1st
Rolled to Nov 22nd 2555/2580 for 20.90.
Closed Nov 15th 2575/2600 call spreads for 16.45. Sold in #InverseCondor on Nov 1st for 23.25.
Not yet rolled (was waiting for this morning, but that hasn’t worked out yet)
Sold Nov 20th 2540/2565 put spreads for 2.10.
Today:
Sold Nov 22nd 2560/2535 put spreads for 3.05
Sold Nov 22nd 2550/2525 put spreads for 2.80
Closed Nov 17th 2585/2610 call spreads for 5.95. Sold last Friday for 14.10. Plan to roll this if we can rally back higher.
$UVXY
STO $UVXY Nov 10 $17 calls @ $0.33, basically at today’s high, expires tomorrow.
If I’m wrong, only have to wait until tomorrow to know and roll it.
TRTN
#ShortPuts STO TRTN 45 puts (ITM) @ 3.20, shares at 41.95, replacing exercised shares before dividend of .45 on Nov 30. Bump today attributed to positive earnings report.
SVXY
STO December 22, 60 puts @1.05
DOW Drops 200
http://tinyurl.com/y8vvpob5
Awareness of potential downsides?
#volume OIH Over 20,000 strike…
#volume OIH
Over 20,000 strike 28 calls traded in OIH (oil services ETF) in January, a huge number for OIH. Stock currently at 25.91
Quiet week
Closed the /cl trade for an $800 (was 2k at 0600) loss. I hedged the move this morning by going long 3 futures but then had a meeting. By the time I came back the big move was over so closed everything out. I think it would have worked out eventually but was using up too much margin for some other things I want to do. Will revisit or go back to /es since they have weeklies and easier to manage.
It also confirms the way for me to trade directionally is to sell options. I just seem to always miss the big pivots/reversals because my schedule does not allow me to watch the market. If I could sit and watch all day (which I don’t want to) I think I have the tools and skills to do it, just not for me. I have always had more success selling options and that is what I will do from now on but will take a slightly directional bias to hopefully improve returns. However based on the TT research I may move my ladders out a little farther to 45 DTE and see if I can recycle capital faster. Currently using 21-28 DTE on the #optionladder. The big decay on OTM options is usually that first 2-3 weeks.
Rolled GILD 77.5 out 11-17 to 12-15 for avg. 0.99 credit. Cost basis now 75.5. Stock currently 72.8 so getting close to a break even.
SVXY one for the team, STO 11/17 100 put at 1.79.
I tried to sell some TNA puts at 60 for 15 DTE but the bid ask was 0.29-1.9 and once I got to 1.5 and the market makers would not bite made me realize the liquidity is probably not there so cancelled it.
Going biking, we are finally cold enough here to kill the ticks and chiggers so can go mt bike in the woods again 🙂 without getting all itchy or funky tick borne illnesses 😦
Have a great weekend, that’s all I have, next week is a large expiration but done trading this week unless there is something really exciting tomorrow.
Will start the small account SPY credit spreads experiment @jeffcp66 style once some CC calls expire next week (monday 11/20). It is a small account 6200 so will set up ladders using 3-5 point spreads on the SPY and each week add one. Once 3-4 weeks on the ladder let the expiring ones close or roll them into new ones. My goal is to double it in a year or even even better like Don Fishback is claiming, they had a 300% return on the SPY credit spreads last 12 months. I saw the spreadsheet with the trades but they whited out just enough information that I could not tell the dates of the losing trades so cannot see how they closed them. Looked like there were only 3-4. From what I can tell, partial loss, they did not let it go full loss. But with @jeffcp66 tactics we may be able to scratch them or even turn into a winner. Will see!
Cheers!
NVDA earnings
FFIV
#ShortStrangles – Was just killing time with some post earnings strangles. Trading these in for my NVDA earnings position…
Bought to Close FFIV NOV 17 2017 115.0/127.0 Strangles @ .50 (sold for 1.45)
AAOI
#ShortStrangles – Not taking stock since these are trading just like stock this DITM. Going for max premium selling weekly calls against. Out at even is my goal…
Rolled AAOI NOV 17 2017 80.0 Puts to DEC 15 2017 80.0 Puts @ 1.00 credit
Still sitting on short 44 calls for tomorrow. All included since the beginning of this ordeal I’ve reduced basis in the puts to 60.25 so gradually getting there!
#shortputs #earlyassignment MAT Aug. 8…
#shortputs #earlyassignment MAT
Aug. 8 I sold a Jan. 18 put for 1.25. Yesterday I as assigned 100 shares of MAT. I don’t understand why that happened, and especially why it happened to me, heh heh. I also am short a Dec. 15 20 put in MAT. MAT currently going for 13.95-buy hot wheels and Barbies for your children, grandchildren, kids in the neighborhood…
MGM
#SyntheticStock #LongCallDiagonals – Rolling up and out to the monthly picking up another .61 of upside.
Rolled MGM NOV 10 2017 31.5 Calls to MGM DEC 15 2017 32.0 Calls @ .11 credit
SVXY
STO December 15, 60 puts @.80
Hard to get good prices on puts these days.
REGN
#CoveredCalls – More basis reduction…kind of an odd fill doing this in a single trade. Closed this week well above the mid and sold next week well above the mid. Still got the 5 bucks I was asking.
Bought to Close REGN NOV 10 2017 425.0 Call @ 1.29 (sold for 6.50)
Sold REGN NOV 17 2017 415.0 Call @ 6.29
$UVXY
STO Nov 24 $24 calls @ $0.40
SPX
STO Nov 17 $2560/$2555 puts @ $0.85
#VXXGame trades Sold: $UVXY Dec…
#VXXGame trades
Sold:
$UVXY Dec 22 30 call @ 1.10 (highest strike)
$SVXY Dec 22 65 put @ 1.20
Good morning!
And we open with the lowest TICK reading since June.
$SVXY
At the open STO Dec 8 $60 puts @ $0.55
SVXY
#ShortPuts #IRA – Bought to Close SVXY NOV 17 2017 80.0 Put @ .25 (sold for 2.50)
Interesting research by the TT…
Interesting research by the TT team just the other day. Looks like the sweet spot on strangles is 10-20 deltas.
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/optimal-risk-reward-in-strangles-11-06-2017
Pattern Day Trader?
Gotta Question for someone. Yesterday I was selling some synthetic stock that I’ve had for several months (buy a call, sell a put, buy a lower put). I was trying to sell two contracts but fat fingered it and sold three, so I had to buy one back. This was in a small account that I have. When I try to sell some calls for next week, I got the pattern day trader warning and they would not let me trade. Is it common practice to count a combo like that as three trades? This was with IB.
OPHT…blast from the past
Looks like they’re still alive and kicking. Anybody that’s still at OMM…has @scottto mentioned it lately? These guys and REGN both had good earnings today.
SVXY stock
#CoveredCalls – Received this stock from reverse rolling some threatened calls quite awhile back. Lot’s of things I could do with it to squeeze a little extra out of it but I’m not gonna look a gift chicken…errr….horse in the mouth. Breakeven was my original goal and with plenty of Jan risk I’m booking and raising the cash.
Sold to Close SVXY covered stock @ 91.25 (basis 83.22)
Sold to Close SVXY covered stock @ 93.25 (basis 84.07)
WDC
#ShortPuts – For some reason today (maybe it’s the chicken) I’m feeling like trimming some risk. Also, clearing out a little to take a slightly bigger position than normal in NVDA earnings tomorrow.
Bought to Close WDC NOV 17 2017 85.0 Puts @ 1.00 (sold for 1.55)
Short Puts / Closed early
#shortputs
$GILD 12/15 67.5/72.5 BUPS @ 1.55 (Dr Science at OMM)
$SVXY STO 12/15 85 put @ 2.50 Thank you @jdietz1954
$SVXY STO 12/8 70 put @ 1.45 Thank you @jsd501
Closed Early
$AAOI BTC 11/17 50 puts @ 8.70 Getting out with small loss after a few rolls of the AAOI
$COST BTC 11/17 150 put @ .05 STO 10/6 @ 1.74
$SPX 11/10 2625/2600 BECS @ 54% profit Thank you @jeffcp66
$C, $RHT, $SPX, $RCL
STO $C Nov 24 $71/$68 put spreads @ $0.50
BTO $RHT Dec 15 $120 calls @ $4.80
STO $SPX Nov 15 $2570/$2565 put spreads @ $0.75
STO $RCL Nov 17 $124/$120 puts spreads @ $0.33
Do we kill the chicken?
TQQQ
I rolled my 134 call for November 10 out to the November 17, 135 call for a credit of .90 cents. The 2019, 80 calls are up and the 80 puts would be at a profit except for the wide spread on the option price.
#shortputspreads ADBE
167.50/177.50 for 1.30, thanks for pointing out my mistake, I’m blaming my phone
NVDA
#Earnings tomorrow so I’m going flat until then. Taking a buck here for now.
Bought to Close NVDA NOV 10 2017 210.0/200.0 Bull Put Spread @ 4.25 (sold for 5.25)
#FANG Futures
#FANG Futures – what could possibly go wrong 🙂
$TRIP #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – Sold…
$TRIP #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – Sold 1 TRIP Jan 19 2018 28.0 Put @ 1.40
$HP #ShortPuts – Bought to…
$HP #ShortPuts – Bought to close HP Dec 15 2017 40.0 Puts @ 0.05. These won’t trade any lower and have over a month until expiration.
Originally sold in August at 1.15, 1.25, 1.30 and 1.55 as a #FallingKnife trade.
Still short the Dec 42.5, Jan 40 and Mar 37.5 Puts in an #OptionLadder.
The chicken lives!!!!
I hope @jeffcp66 has not been kidnapped.
$PRGO #ShortPuts – Bought to…
$PRGO #ShortPuts – Bought to close PRGO Nov 17 2017 55.0 Puts @ 0.05.
Originally sold on 08/04/2017 at 1.30.
I had already bought back the Jan 50 Puts at a nickel several weeks ago.
And the chicken background is really distracting 😦
Good morning
It looks like the chicken has taken control of the background.
#fallingknife #shortputs AKAM Bought January…
#fallingknife #shortputs AKAM
Bought January 18, 40 put for .05 sold May 5 for 1.12 gracias hielo hombre
Fear the chicken!
Fear the chicken!
$DUST #ShortPuts – Sold DUST…
$DUST #ShortPuts – Sold DUST Nov 10 2017 25.0 Puts @ 0.30. These also expire Friday
$NUGT #CoveredCalls – Sold NUGT…
$NUGT #CoveredCalls – Sold NUGT Nov 10 2017 30.5 Calls @ 0.34. These expire Friday.
SPX Campaign / Short Puts / Closed Early
#spxcampaign
$SPX STO 11/17 2560/2585 BUPS @ 4.70
$SPX STO 11/20 2560/2585 BUPS @ 4.60
#shortputs
$GIS STO 4/20/2018 47.5 put @ 1.60
Closed Early
$CAT BTC 11/17 145/140 BECS @ 69% profit
$SVXY BTC 1/19/2018 22.50 put @ .20 STO 11/2016 @ 9.23
$AKAM BTC 11/17 42.50 put @ .05 STO 5/10 @ 1.66
$SPX BTC 11/10 2590/2565 @ 18.10 STO 10/27 @ 12.55
$FB BTC 11/17 155/165 BUPS @ .10 STO 10/6 @ 2.08 94% profit
$ALK #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – Sold…
$ALK #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – Sold 1 ALK APR 20 2018 50.0 Put @ 1.25
$PXD #ShortPuts – Bought to…
$PXD #ShortPuts – Bought to close PXD Jan 19 2018 90.0 Puts @ 0.05. They won’t trade any lower and don’t expire until next year.
Originally sold on 08/07/2017 at 1.25.
AAOI and REGN earnings
#Earnings – Positions in both so not adding to either one…
Markets–a change in character?
Still 30 minutes to go, but is this finally a day where stocks aren’t being bought into the close? Hasn’t happened much recently.
Ready to GUSH?
Down a bit today, but as expected the recent run-up has opened up some new strikes (up to 45 in Nov, Dec and Jan, and 44 in Mar and Jun).
Looks like you could sell calls at the highest strike in June (44) for at least today’s high or more. I’m not jumping in yet–that is still more than 7 months away and if there’s a prolonged move up in oil that strike could be taken out quickly on a 3x ETF. If this move in oil turns out to be a big head fake then I will have missed the opportunity. I think I’d feel more comfortable waiting for something like Dec 45s to sell for more than 1.00.
As always, I reserve the right to change my mind. 🙂
a Nice Days work..
A decent day on the YM front…
Options Bistro 