HIIQ NVTA Short Puts / NVDA Earnings Straddle / NFLX BUPS / Rolling TQQQ

#shortputs
$HIIQ STO 3/15 31 puts at 1.19 Thank you @honkhonk81.
$NVTA STO 3/15 15 puts at 1.00

#earnings
$NVDA STO 3/15 120/189 straddle at 1.70. Thank you @thomberg1201

#bups
$NFLX STO 3/15 325/335 BUPS at 2.50 Thank you @ramie77

#perpetualrollingstrangles
$TQQQ BTC 2/15 50 calls and STO 3/15 53 calls for additional .80 credit.

Happy Valentines Day to all. Not much left of it but enjoy.

Expiration $SPX 1 DTE / Closed Early COST UA

#optionsexpiration
$SPX 2690/2710/2795/2775 STO at .80

#closing
$COST 2/15 207.5/212.50 BUPS at 1.00 STO at 2.20 54% of max. I am treading lightly. Erring on the side of keeping my money.
$UAL BTC 2/15 90 call at .20 STO on 1/15 as part of earnings strangle at .61. The put side which brought in .49 will, I expect, expire Friday. STO at .49. Thank you @thomberg1201 for the trade and @jeffcp66 for supporting data.

Closed Early $SPX JPM SAVE EA / Short Puts HIIQ SFLY

Closed Early
$SPX BTC 2/11/2745/2730 BECS at .05. STO today at .85 Thank you @jeffcp66
$JPM BTC 2/15 90/100/110/100 IC at 2.30 STO 1/14 for 5.14 Thank you @thomberg1201 for the earnings trade
$SAVE STC 2/15 BUCS at 4.20 BTO on 1/29 for 1.90
$EA BTC 3/15 75 puts at .10. STO on 2/7 for 1.68 after their earnings announcement (poorly received initially).
Thanks to @ramie77

#shortputs
$HIIQ STO 2/15 38 put at 1.40. Thank you @honkhonk81
$SFLY STO 3/15 45 put at 2.05. Hope this is picture perfect.

#earnings GS #ironfly kindof I…

#earnings GS #ironfly kindof
I was looking at an #ironbutterly for GS and saw this trade at TastyTrade (Mike Butler).

Sold Feb. 15, 155/175/180/200 for 8.53, GA is at 178.

TEVA earnings analysis

#Earnings
At @thomberg1201‘s request:

$TEVA reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 2, 2018 BO -9.46%
May 3, 2018 BO -4.40%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -10.59%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -19.90%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -24.00% Biggest DOWN
May 11, 2017 BO 2.04%
Feb. 13, 2017 BO 5.62% Biggest UP
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -8.35%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO 3.50%
May 9, 2016 BO 5.05%
Feb. 11, 2016 BO -4.97%
Oct. 29, 2015 BO -3.38%

Avg + or – 8.44%
Bias -5.74%, strong negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 20.15, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 18.11 to 22.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 18.45 to 21.85
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24%): 15.31 to 24.99

Open for requests on other symbols.

#shortstraddle

FEYE earnings analysis

by request of @thomberg1201
#Earnings $FEYE reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 1, 2018 AC -1.91%
May 2, 2018 AC -9.70%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC 9.34%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -10.32%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC 0.74%
May 2, 2017 AC 12.85% Biggest UP
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -15.72%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC 12.07%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -12.05%
May 5, 2016 AC -19.02%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -3.30%
Nov. 4, 2015 AC -22.87% Biggest DOWN

Avg + or – 10.82%
Bias -4.99%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 16.20, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 14.12 to 18.28
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 14.45 to 17.95
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.9%): 12.50 to 19.90

Open for requests on other symbols.

Bonus day off, not getting…

Bonus day off, not getting hammered by the storm so time to trade then go bike or kite, might be too windy today 🙂

Still waiting on theta decay, next week a big expiration, this one mostly rolling and a few new trades.

#pietrades
TQQQ lot 1 rolled 64 cc rolled out 2 weeks for 0.8 credit. Cost basis now 63.20
TQQQ lot 2 rolled 65.5 cc out 2 weeks for 1.3 credit. Cb now 63.15
LNG lot 1 66.5cc rolled out a week to 66 for 0.73 credit. Cb 64.67
LNG lot 2 66.5 cc rolled out a week to 66 for 0.93 credit. Cb 64.72

#fuzzy new and adjustments/rolls
New XBI 80/97 2020 Leap and 14 DTE on the 97 for cost of 19.56
LNG 50/66.5 2020 LEAP and 14 DTE on the 66.5 for 19.25

Rolls
XBI 87/95 and 95/95 2019 LEAPs rolled out to 21 DTE for 0.75 credits. Cost basis now 5.68 on the 87 and 2.2 on the 95. Getting close to a free trade on these.

Hope everyone in the path of the storm is safe and dry!

I now have about 4-6 weeks on the #fuzzy in the small accounts and have to say anything below 10k this is the way to go, even better than #pietrades. Over that you can do about the same with #fuzzy or #pietrades.

Going forward I will still be experimenting with the 45 DTE open 21 DTE close pie ladders (new hashtag maybe if it works) and will report as they roll/unwind. The TT segment that @thomberg1201 posted the other day added more evidence that may be the best way to income trade.

Hope everyone has a good weekend 🙂