VXX Gamin’

#VXXGame Followed @vxxkelly, sold $UVXY April 20th 26 call for 2.00.

VXXgame profits and danger

This is a VERY important article to read for any one doing #VXXGame trades. I first learned the game from @optioniceman in December 2012 and made great profits for two years. However, you do suffer through pain and possible margin calls on big volatility events. After white-knuckling October 2014, I scaled back and participate on a much lower scale now. My profits have been smaller as a result, as the trade has remained stronger than ever since that event.

Although I have long understood the basics of this article, I still learned some new perspective by reading this today. Check it out. Ask questions, start a discussion.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4131144-next-big-short-potential-cause-market-decline?auth_param=bf3bv:1d386u2:98769c7c2dd6077dfe86fe528712f8a4&uprof=37

#vixindicator

Fuzzy Rolls

LMT #Fuzzy from just 8 days ago was up over $2,000 net today. Rather than roll, I decided to close it all and look for a new opp to reset.
CELG I rolled yesterday locking in $750 for the week and selling another 1.00 for next week, my “Stage One” net debit is now only $0.63.
JPM I rolled on Wed before FOMC locking in $550 for the week and selling .95 for next week. My “Stage One” net debit is now only $1.04
NUE got hit with some bad news this week on guidance, took the stock down yesterday but just beyond the synthetic level. Premium is slow to come out of the short calls today, in latter half of the day I will place new position for next week and just let this week expire. That will bring in $560 for the week.
IWM: Opened yesterday, no roll today
TWTR: Up nicely, but no roll for this week
SPX: #FuzzyBear Rolled earlier this week. I have realized income of $7100 on this in just 8 days. Stage One has gone from $40 to $30. Much more to go! Like @fuzzballl said earlier this week…just keep chipping away at it.

I’m looking at #Fuzzy debit recovery in two stages, Stage One is the trade debit recovery, then Stage Two is the spread risk recovery.

DWDP

@vxxkelly did a recent trade on this and it reminded me it’s been on my watch list. There’s a lot of block trades on it today, and some calls being bought. So I did an unprotected #Fuzzy . I did a Mar 70/70 synthetic and sold Dec 22 71.5. I will add protection after an up move, for a better price. In a squeeze right now.
Didn’t capture my trades from yesterday, but a couple highlights:
1. Rolled the JPM Fuzzy hedge into strength to collect more on the next week
2. MAR #JadeLizard closed for 50% target
3. My SPX #FuzzyBear is troublesome. I didn’t set it with correct timing, so now I’m doing battle. I took off one short call on the synthetic turning it into a back ratio like @hcgdavis mentioned yesterday. I’m also using the AS-BB indicator for legging in and out of the hedge puts to get a few extra $$ on it.
#Fuzzies need rolls as Friday approaches: LMT, CELG, NUE. I’ve got substantial net profit on LMT so may close it all rather than roll.

AAL “insider trading” ?

Not sure if anyone has seen our headlines lately. Long story short…technical glitch allowed pilots system wide to drop trips in December that normally wouldn’t be allowed. Now we are looking at tons of open flying that nobody seems interested in even after the company offer of double time to pick them up. I believe the company is downplaying the severity of this to preserve holiday bookings…

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/29/thousands-of-american-airlines-flights-dont-have-scheduled-pilots-union.html

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/12/01/567903691/american-and-pilots-work-out-deal-to-save-holiday-flights

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/todayinthesky/2017/12/05/pilot-scheduling-mix-up-could-cost-american-10-million-analyst-estimates/922432001/

I could be totally wrong too. I hope so since I’m on call over Christmas and New Year’s…LOL But…if we get a little news story about how maybe everything isn’t as it may seem, I’m going to take a low risk shot at some downside using the @vxxkelly butterfly hedge. Tiny risk for possibly decent reward. I don’t see an implosion but possibly a small pullback so love the idea of trying to do it for a credit.

Have to double check the numbers when the market is open but right now the 49/47/45 or 48/46/44 looks like pretty good risk/reward.

FWIW…

SVXY butterfly experiment

I’m not much of a regular old butterfly guy (other than iron butterflies for earnings) so maybe I did something wrong. The SVXY put butterfly that @vxxkelly and I were discussing as a #Hedge didn’t do much during the selloff Friday. I monitored it as SVXY dropped all the way down and then all the way back up and the thing was never profitable at all. Was it because it was out in Jan? Do these types of trades only work on much shorter time frames? Did I (quite possibly) screw something up?

Here was the trade:

SVXY JAN 19 2018 110.0/105.0/97.5 Put Butterfly @ .22 credit

Bought 5 110 puts
Sold 10 105 puts
Bought 5 97.5 puts

Some trades from earlier

Similar to @vxxkelly I was away from my desk during the crucial hour when the market was at its lows of the day. Of course that’s the only period of time I missed all day. Still was able to get a few trades off.
Sold:
$SVXY Mar 16 45 put @ 1.15
$SVXY Jan 19 65 put @ 1.19
$UVXY Jun 15 60 call @ 2.10 (highest strike)
$UVXY Mar 16 70 calls @ 1.00

So I’ll either be able to sell some more if the market fades again, or the market keeps moving up we’ll be seeing Iceman’s billboard. 🙂