#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 10th 3270/3290-3300/3320 condors for 16.65, with SPX at 3293.
Expiring: Aug 3rd 3245/3265 call spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 17.05.
Recent Updates Page 192
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Aug 3rd 3310/3330 call spreads for .40. Condors sold for 1.10 on Friday. Stop was hit at the open but was able to wait for low cost exit.
#earnings #closing AAPL July 30,…
VXX
Bored to death trade 🙂
Bought VXX Jun 21 2021 7.0 Puts / Sold VXX Aug 07 2020 27.0 Puts @ 0.14 Credit with the stock at 28.20
Contango drift in VXX and a strong market should make the longs worth more than zero someday
TQQQ
#ShortPuts – This is getting ridiculous. My most aggressive #TakeOneForTheTeam so far. 🙂 🙂
Sold TQQQ AUG 28 2020 100.0 Put @ 2.90
INTC NVDA
#ShortPuts – Swapping NVDA for INTC. Starter position out in Sep.
Sold INTC SEP 18 2020 45.0 Puts @ .94
Bought to Close NVDA AUG 07 2020 375.0 Put @ .06 (sold for 2.59)
EIX – Parking More Cash
BTO EIX stock @ $53.54
STO EIX Sep 18: 52.5 call @ $3.40
BTO EIX Jan 2022: 70 put : @ $21.76
EIX (Edison International) currently pays a $2.55 per share dividend (4.7% yield).
For the $70 protective put you are paying (53.54 + 21.76) – 70 = $5.30 premium. That first call sale goes a long way on the cost reduction process.
Thanks Sue (and many others) for all the ideas on conservative trades that can generate a reasonable income with upfront protection.
EWZ LABU
#ShortPuts – A couple today…
Sold EWZ SEP 4 2020 28.5 Puts @ .64
Bought to Close LABU AUG 7 2020 40.0 Puts @ .05 (sold for 1.05)
TRADES:
AAOI BTO STOCK @15.97
AAOI STO 8/7/20 14.0 PUTS @.45
AAOI STO 8/7/20 18.0 CALLS @.56
DOCU roll up
With the stock breaching the call spread side of my iron condor (at 224.45), rolled $DOCU 185/175 bull put spread up to 205/195 for 1.35 credit. Part of an iron condor with 220/230 bear call spread. Originally sold for 3.69 on 7/15. This is the second roll up of the put spread side. With this credit, total premium taken in now 6.30.
TRADES:
CC BTO STOCK @18.93, 19.14, 19.59
THC STC STOCK @26.40 Earnings tonight.
EWZ – Parking Cash
BTO EWZ Jan 2022 : long strangle $27 call / $37 put @ $16.70
STO EWZ Aug 07: 32.0 straddle @ $1.38
Classic Hedge Fund trick. The long strangle has 526 DTE. Back of the envelope calculation 526 / 7 = 75 weekly option expirations left. Guaranteed $10 when closing out the long strangle in Jan 2022. So $16.70 – $10.00 = $6.70 to finance in weekly sales. Just sold week 1 for $1.38 . Four more similar weeks and that’s a zero cost strangle.
Will be closing out the previous EWZ September 2020 strangle.
#fuzzyhotair #putratioladder AAPL put ratio…
AAPL put ratio ladder update: ON SUSPENSION
(1×2 credit ratios, 30 delta/25 delta, with a BWB hedge to extend downside)
So I’ve seen this movie before. The last time AAPL split there was a mad run-up in stock demand and price (everyone scratched their head back then, as well). I can make more (with less risk) using collars on AAPL, vs put ratios. Especially since I keep cash allocation for short put assignment anyway. Plus there’s an ex-div on Aug 7th.
So here’s an update on the “rungs.”
Week 1: CLOSED
Aug 21 345/340 sold 6.70, bought 2.32
Wish I hadn’t closed this, the breakeven was super far away…should have let more juice drain off until 20 DTE (right after these words were published AAPL dropped from $400+ to the 360’s on anti-competitive news reports, so closing was a good move in hindsight)
Week 2: Closed on July 31
Aug 28 372.5/365 sold 7.12, put fly hedge 350/340/335 .90: Put ratio closed for 1.45
Week 3: Closed on July 31
Sep 4 360/355 sold 6.05, put fly hedge bought 345/335/330 for .93: Put ratio closed for 1.61
Week 4: Still open
Sep 11 360/355 put ratio sold 6.10, put fly hedge bought 345/335/330 for .99
Breakeven $335
Collars added: 100 share blocks + Sold Sep 18 420 calls @ 20.10, + Bot Aug 28th Put Debit Spreads 400/380 @ $3.99
Split will happen on Aug 31
Expirations Assignments
#assignment
$PFE 36.5 call
$SQ 124 call
$T 30 put
#optionsexpirations
$PFE 40.5 call
$NIO 14 calls
$KHC 37 calls Shout out to @honkhonk81
$RAD 15.5 calls
$MRNA 84 calls
$APT 25 calls
$AAOI calls
PEP 139 calls
$TQQQ 75 puts Thanks @jsd501
$MRVL 35 put
$KHC 34 put Shout out to @honkhonk81
MDLZ
BTC MDLZ July 31: 55.0 short straddle @ $0.52 (originally sold for $2.17)
STO MDLZ Aug 07: 55.0 short straddle @ $1.18
Premium seems to be dropping off pretty fast on this one – but sticking to the system.
Cover is the Jan 2022 long 40 put / 65 call strangle.
EWZ
BTC EWZ July 31: 32.5 straddle @ $0.08 (originally sold for $1.55)
STO EWZ Aug 07: 32.5 straddle @ $1.65
The short straddle is covered by a long EWZ Sep 18: 24 put / 30 call strangle.
Episode 12 – Adda Girl
Charlize Theron and pals cheat death, Tom Hanks navigates a deadly game of chess, and could it be that grandma is possessed? Michelle Staley Mahony joins Kevin & Jeff with New Music Picks, streaming picks, plus a video exclusive: “Guess the 80’s music video”. More details, the video, playlists and links at https://thepickcast.com
Econ Calendar for week of 8/3/20
Earnings expirations
#Earnings. Breaking alm ost even as these both expire:
$NOW July 31st 425/420 put spread, sold Wednesday for 1.40.
$AMZN July 31st 3050/3080/3110 Iron Butterfly, sold yesterday for 28.45, so loss of 1.55
EXPIRED TODAY
APT 23.0, 24.0, 25.0 CALLS STO @.40, .80, .62
DAL 28.0 CALLS STO @.80
KHC 33.0 PUTS STO @.37
KHC 37.0 CALLS STO @.47
THC 27.0, 27.5 CALLS STO @.43, .40
THC 24.5, 25.5 PUTS STO @.40, .35
OptionsExpiration
SPX 1 DTE
#spx1dte
$SPX STO 8/3 3145/3165/3310/3330 at 1.05
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Although NOT long this time. When setting up this trade it was going for 19.00… the most I ever paid was about 18.40. I don’t know why it is so expensive but I’m guessing it’s because next Friday is the jobs report. So, I sold it instead. I will watch all week to look for an exit… I will not be waiting for the miniscule chance of a big win next Friday.
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 7th 3235/3255-3265/3285 condors for 18.95, with SPX at 3260.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 3rd 3165/3185-3310/3330 condors for 1.05, with SPX at 3260. IV 11.95%, deltas -.06,+.06
VIAC
10 minutes before the close the short calls crawled ITM so I rolled
Bought to close VIAC 07/31/2020 26.0 Calls / Sold VIAC 08/07/2020 28.0 Calls @ 0.44 Credit PLUS two more points on the strike price.
#Earnings next week.
UVXY
#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – Bringing in some nice cash while continuing to stay aggressive every week…
Covered:
Bought to Close UVXY JUL 31 2020 25.5 Calls @ .17 (sold for 4.90)
Sold UVXY AUG 7 2020 26.0 Calls @ 1.45
In a different account:
Rolled UVXY JUL 31 2020 26.0 Puts to UVXY AUG 7 2020 24.0 Puts @ .24 credit (1.26 total now)
SPCE Earnings (early)
#BullPutSpreads – Stock is weak today so putting on my earnings trade now. Taking a shot at a rally but really covering my butt in case of an implosion. Same as all the other ITM spreads I sell. If it implodes I’ll close the long side right at the close Friday and let the shorts get assigned. Should have a basis around a dollar above where the stock ends no matter how far it drops.
Long story short…if it’s below my spread at expiration then the lower the better.
Sold SPCE AUG 7 2020 25.0/22.0 Bull Put Spreads @ 2.00
TRADES:
WY STO 8/7/2027.0 PUTS @.35
STNE STO 8/7/20 CALLS @.45
NTAP SLB WYNN
#CoveredCalls – Rolled some sold some. I won’t bore you with the details. Still plugging along. WYNN earnings next week.
TRADES:
SWKS BTO STOCK @143.00
MS STO 8/7/20 49.0 PUTS @1.20 gee whiz’s roll out post gave me the idea. Thanks, and have a great and safe weekend.
It has been increasingly hard to find short call candidates without it being NTM.
SPY #shortputs STO SPY Sep30’20…
SPY
#shortputs
STO SPY Sep30’20 270 PUT @2.35
TQQQ STO TQQQ Sep18’20 60…
TQQQ
#ShortPuts
STO TQQQ Sep18’20 60 PUT @1.20
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong This is the fourth trade in a row for this strategy where I’ve been faced with the danger zone at expiration. I have to make a choice as to whether we are going to finish the day higher or lower, and I chose lower. I am, however, notorious for making the wrong choice in these spots. So look for a higher close!
Sold to close $SPX July 31st 3215/3235 call spreads for 12.20. Already looking like I’m wrong as we have a small spike higher and this can be closed for a lot more now. Condors bought last Friday for 17.55. Looking for a further move down so I can close the put side for a decent credit. If I’m wrong then my loss is locked in.
MS Put Rolled
#shortputs
$MS BTC 7/31 50 put and STO 8/7 50 put at .30 added credit
AMZN
#IronCondor – Following @Ramie but I’m a weenie selling 2x the expected move… 🙂
Sold AMZN AUG 21 2020 2650.0/2700.00/3700/3750 Iron Condor @ 3.15
VXX puts
Sold VXX 08/07/2020 27.00 Puts @ 0.60. Sold these against already paid for 2021 long puts.
#DoubleDip
AMZN Post-Earnings Condor
Sold $AMZN 8/21 2900/2950//3500/3550 iron condor @ 13.89, short strikes around 17 delta. IV still elevated (IVR 52).
AAPL Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings #OneNightStand – Shut the door on your way out. See ya next time!
Bought to Close AAPL AUG 21 2020 350.0 Put @ .95 (sold for 3.75)
VIAC
Rolling into earning week
Bought to close VIAC 07/31/2020 24.0 Calls / Sold VIAC 08/07/2020 24.0 Calls @ 0.52 Credit
SLB
#CoveredCalls – After quite a few credit rolls finally out of this one. Still some work to do in it though…
Bought to Close SLB JUL 31 2020 19.5 Calls @ .01 (sold for 1.65)
TQQQ
#ShortPuts – Out on the road when this filled. Tried adding an AAPL strangle that didn’t fill. Playing the big boys pin action with an aggressive TQQQ.
Sold TQQQ AUG 21 2020 90.0 Puts @ 2.50
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 31st 3140/3160-3300/3320 condors for 1.25, IV 20.24%, SPX 3243, ∆ -.07,+.06
KODK
#putratiospread
#brokenwingbutterfly
#bearcallspreads
Sep 18 Sold 30/25 put ratio spread for 5.65 (5×10)
Bot BWB 15/10/7.5 for 1.25 qty 5
Trying to execute a ratio bear call spread at 60/65 for .70 qty 4
No upside risk, breakeven w/ the call spread is $10.00
TRADES:
THC STO 7/31/20 26.5 PUTS @.30
THC STO 7/31/20 27.5 CALLS @.37
TQQQ
#ShortPuts – Never got a chance to add. Taking it off 3 weeks early…
Bought to Close TQQQ AUG 21 2020 50.0 Put @ .14 (sold for 1.72)
AMZN target practice
#Earnings Sold to Open $AMZN July 31st 3050/3080/3110 #IronButterfly for 28.45. Risking 1.55 to make up to 28.00 if AMZN ends tomorrow near 3080, or if it swings wildly and passes through the 3080 area. I’ve done this trade many times and paid for the losses by winning two or three times. Doesn’t always sell for this much; 28+ is a good price. But to be clear, probability is highest that it will expire with one side deep ITM , which means a 30.00 debit (thus the 1.55 loss).
A TRADE:
HZO BTO STOCK @29.85
AMZN BUPS Closed
CHWY
I think it has reached a level of support so:
BTO August 21, 48 calls at 2.36
STO August 7, 53 calls at .20 for a net debit of 2.16
#fuzzyhotair #putratioladder AAPL put ratio…
AAPL put ratio ladder, week 4
(1×2 credit ratios, 30 delta/25 delta, with a BWB hedge to extend downside)
Week 1: CLOSED
Aug 21 345/340 sold 6.70, bought 2.32
Wish I hadn’t closed this, the breakeven was super far away…should have let more juice drain off until 20 DTE (right after these words were published AAPL dropped from $400+ to the 360’s on anti-competitive news reports, so closing was a good move in hindsight)
Week 2: Still open
Aug 28 372.5/365 sold 7.12, put fly hedge 350/340/335 .90
Breakeven $340
Week 3: Still open
Sep 4 360/355 sold 6.05, put fly hedge bought 345/335/330 for .93
Breakeven: $335
Week 4: opened using earnings volatility (earnings are tonight)
Sep 11 360/355 put ratio sold 6.10, put fly hedge bought 345/335/330 for .99
Breakeven $335
I make a practice of always having cash available for assignment on these, so about 3 rungs is the most I can have on this ladder right now. The week 2 position is down to 29 DTE….it is profitable now. Barring any disaster tonight I might be able to close it tomorrow. Though the positions are all staggered by date, they ARE clustered around breakeven. It would be better I think for more breakeven diversification….but the markets have been in some consolidation.
RAD SQ Calls Rolled
$RAD BTC 7/31 15.50 call and STO 8/7 16.50 call at even
$SQ BTC 7/31 129 call and STO 8/7 131 call at $3.00 added credit
INTC
Intel is getting interesting to me as it begins to approach the March lows.
Just putting this out there for ideas.
TRADES:
APT STO 7/31/20 23.0 CALLS @.40
WFC STO 8/7/20 24.5 PUTS @.51
MS STO 8/7/20 47.5 PUTS @.53
#earnings #ironcondor AAPL Sold Aug….
#earnings #closing FFIV July 27,…
SPY
#ShortPuts – Easing back into this one…
Sold SPY Sep 18 2020 285.0 Put @ 3.55
VXX New Diagonal Call
Bought to open 1 VXX 10/16/2020 70.0 Call / Sold 1 VXX 08/07/2020 33.50 Call @ 0.21 Credit with the stock at 30.95.
Hoping to acquire another free October long position for the coming Election chaos
VXX
Balancing out my large short put position for tomorrow by selling 2 day calls against my long Sep and Oct call positions.
Sold VXX 07/31/2002 32.0 Call @ 0.61 (adding to my position right at my average cost)
Sold VXX 07/31/2002 33.0 Calls @ 0.36
LABU
#ShortPuts – I’ll take it now. You just never know…
Bought to Close LABU JUL 31 2020 47.5 Puts @ .10 (sold for 1.60)
AMZN earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 30, 2020 AC -7.59%
Jan. 30, 2020 AC +7.37%
Oct. 24, 2019 AC -1.09%
July 25, 2019 AC -1.55%
April 25, 2019 AC +2.54%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
Avg (+ or -) 4.67%
Bias 0.35%, tiny positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 3020.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 3197.00 to 3551.00 (+/- 6.5%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 2879.07 to 3160.93
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 2621.06 to 3418.94
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 2784.14
Open to requests for other symbols.
TQQQ
STO August 21, 65 put at .52
AAPL earnings analysis
#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 30, 2020 AC -1.60%
Jan. 28, 2020 AC +2.09%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +2.26%
July 30, 2019 AC +2.04%
April 30, 2019 AC +4.90%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +6.83% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018 AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC +4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.61%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +4.72%
Avg (+ or -) 4.03%
Bias 1.93%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 376.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 351.44 to 400.56 (+/- 6.5%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 360.86 to 391.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 350.32 to 401.68
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 351.07
Open to requests for other symbols.
FB earnings analysis
#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 29, 2020 AC +5.41%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC -6.13%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +1.80%
July 24, 2019 AC -1.93%
April 24, 2019 AC +5.84%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC +2.91%
Avg (+ or -) 6.00%
Bias 1.16%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 230.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 216.31 to 243.69 (+/- 6.0%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 216.20 to 243.80
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 186.39 to 273.61
Based on UP max only (+10.8%): 254.86
Open to requests for other symbols.
LRCX Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – Stock went up. (big surprise 🙂 ). Getting what I can from the call spread and letting the put side expire. Made .35!!
Bought to Close LRCX JUL 31 2020 350.0/355.0 side of the Jade Condor @ 4.75 (sold for 5.10)
AAPL Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Going out to the monthlies for a little more safety and premium. Selling the expected move but below the 50ma. I’ll still put it in the #TakeOneForTheTeam category. 🙂 🙂
Sold AAPL AUG 21 2020 350.0 Put @ 3.75
TQQQ
STO September 18, 65 put at 1.94
STO September 18, 70 put at 2.51
PYPL Earnings
#putratiospread
#brokenwingbutterfly
Jul 31
177.5/175 put ratio, 2×4 1.65 cr
172.5/167.5/165 BWB downside hedge .58 debit qty 2
breakeven $166.93, approx 12 delta
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX Aug 5th 3235/3255-3265/3285 condors for 16.85. with SPX at 3259.
LRCX Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – I’m calling this a Jade Lizard because it’s fun but adding a disaster put turning it into some sort of an unbalanced iron condor. Still no upside risk and playing for a down move of half to one and a half times the expected move.
Sold LRCX JUL 31 2020 300.0/335.0/350.0/355.0 Jade Condor @ 5.10
SHOP fading the gap up
Stock has been fading from its morning post-earnings gap up, all day. Sold $SHOP 8/21 1120/1140 bear call spread @ 5.00. Short calls above today’s high. With IV low and the the short calls closer than I usually sell (34 delta), this trade has a higher than usual directional component (i.e., looking for further down movement rather than waiting for volatility to contract). Heads up, this is another underlying with less than ideal liquidity.
NVDA
#ShortPuts – Taking it off a week early…
Bought to Close NVDA AUG 07 2020 350.0 Put @ .16 (sold for 4.49)
TRADES:
THC BTO STOCK @26.92 Reports Earn Monday
LABU
#ShortPuts – Adding…
Sold LABU AUG 21 2020 40.0 Puts @ 1.39
NOW trade this
#Earnings Sold to Open $NOW July 31st 425/420 put spreads for 1.40, with stock at 441.00. Short strike is at the max negative move.
NOW earnings analysis
#Earnings $NOW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Overwhelmingly positive response on earnings…
April 29, 2020 AC +9.17%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC +9.16%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +8.07%
July 24, 2019 AC -3.86% the only DOWN move since Jan 2016
April 24, 2019 AC +7.41%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +13.41% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +1.42%
July 25, 2018 AC +4.60%
April 25, 2018 AC +4.53%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +2.64%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +1.21%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.74%
Avg (+ or -) 5.52%
Bias 4.88%, overwhelmingly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 443.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 417.67 to 468.33 (+/- 5.7%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 418.55 to 467.45
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.4%): 383.59 to 502.41
Based on DOWN max only (-3.9%): 425.90
Open to requests for other symbols.
DVA earnings analysis (for tomorrow)
#Earnings $DVA reports THURSDAY after the bell. By request, here are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 5, 2020 AC +4.41%
Feb. 10, 2020 AC +6.94%
Nov. 5, 2019 AC +12.92% Biggest UP
Aug. 1, 2019 AC +1.28%
May 7, 2019 AC -8.55%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC +0.29%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -7.79%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +5.34%
May 3, 2018 AC +4.86%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +1.64%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -7.83%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC -8.84% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 5.89%
Bias 0.39%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 90.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 85.35 to 94.65 (+/- 5.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 84.70 to 95.30
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 78.37 to 101.63
Based on DOWN max only (-8.8%): 82.04
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 