Sold Oct 21 2920/2895 put spread + 3035/3060 call spread @ 7.40.
Short put and call deltas are 20 and 21.
Call spread is above the all time high in SPX.
Recent Updates Page 249
LULU
BTC $LULU 175/185 Oct 18 #BuPS @0.14. Was STO Sept 30 @1.45.
#closing #shortstrangles DD August 9…
August 9 I sold a Sept. 20, 65/77.50 strangle so DD headed south. I rolled the call down into an inversion, rolled the inversion to Oct. 25. I was able to close today with a $104.00 gain, more than I would have taken out of the strangle, but with consternation costs.
#SueCollar Good morning lovlies, TGIF!…
#SueCollar
Good morning lovlies, TGIF! I thought I’d start posting a little again on my collar strategy. Life has been hectic, March 1 I executed on a move to Iowa, regretted the house purchase from the first minute I took possession. Regretted being in Iowa at all. Desperately missed the mountains. Aug 30 executed a move back to Colo, without selling the Iowa house. I’m finally settled back in Colo, though still trying to sell Iowa. I am SO HAPPY to breathe Colorado air again.
So…re trading. I started doing 13-week Tbills over a year ago. The T-bills made me realize that as I’m older, I have less appetite for risk. They also taught me patience. I would make (risk free and state-tax free) as much in 13 weeks as a 1-week Jade Lizard can turn over. But, with a ladder, the risk-free money was rolling in every week. The T-bill rate hit a high last December then started dropping. Once it got close to 2% I realized I needed a new low risk strategy.
So I went back to the #collars . This is a slow, steady, low volatility, limited risk strategy. My goal is to net out about 3-to-6 times the Tbill rate. So 6 to 12% a year. The return-on-risk is much higher, around 50-100% due to risk being so controlled.
I have a very specific process I follow that seems to be working well, that’s why I’ll call it #SueCollars
I use the term “collar” pretty generically. Some would call this “married puts.” I also call it a “rev con” (Reverse Conversion). To me they are all interchangeable. The premise being that there is a stock position, a short call, and a protective put.
My process is 1. Buy stock (I have a tight list of high yielding stocks with good balance sheets—I’m limiting buys right now to PEP, WMT, VZ, CMCSA, CSCO, EBAY, AMD, INTC, BX, MSFT, TGT, UPS, JPM, TGT). I also size every buy for the same amount of stock risk, i.e. all of them around $30K in stock for example. That way capital allocation across tickers is roughly equal.
2. Sell ATM calls around 45 days out. Collect the max you can
3. Buy OTM put 22 days out, targeting 1/3rd of the premium collected on the calls for the buy-price. The thought being that the calls can finance a couple rounds of puts, with enough left over on calls for net profit.
Here is a trade I put on today in CMCSA:
1. Bought 600 shares @ 45.02
2. Sold Nov 22 45 call @1.46 x6
3. Bought Nov 1 43 put @ .46 x 6
Net delta is 145 on 600 shares….so it’s still a bullish trade, but look at all that risk control! Risk is reduced by 75% (obviously any time risk is reduced, profitability is reduced, but remember my benchmark is the 13 week t-bills).
At the outset my max risk on this trade is $612 if there’s a crash. I calculate max risk this way: (600 * 45.02)-(43*600)+(.46*600)-(1.46*600). Basically (stock risk) less (put protection) plus (put cost) less (call premium). Max gain on this trade is $590.88. Roughly with dividends this can yield about 10% a year with pretty good risk control.
There’s a lot of nuance with this trade that I’ll try to capture
–Most people do shorter dated short calls and longer dated puts, I found the opposite works well to finance the puts. On a down swing, the shorter dated puts are a gamma play, they can just explode in value, and longer dated calls very quickly decay, so it’s very nice for collecting realized gains.
–When the protective puts at least double in value (sometimes I can get 7x on them) then I’ll roll everything down. I’ll take profits on the puts and short calls, roll calls to a new 45 DTE ATM and buy new puts. On a big downdraft it’s hard to get new puts at 1/3rd the call value, since these are strong companies I’ll do a very wide put spread to reach the price target. On a bounce it’s easy to buy back the short put and re-establish the full put protection. These rolldowns really do a lot to keep pace with the stock decline.
–A lot of these stocks run up into ex-div and it can be hard to hold the shares. The big thing to always remember with ex div approaching…you CAN be ITM on short calls into ex-div as long as EXTRINSIC IS MORE THAN THE DIV. People tend to freak about ex div and ITM short calls, but it’s an easy rule to remember. I’ve found placing the short calls a couple weeks later than ex div can really help with holding the shares through ex div to collect the dividend. VZ has always been tricky to hold into ex div.
–Once the extrinsic is all gone on short calls I used to self-assign on these to avoid assignment fees….but all that is gone now w/ TDA, no more assignment fees!
–On ITM short calls with no remaining extrinsic, sometimes I’ll roll them up (debit roll) but mostly I take the profits and wait for a down day to re-establish positions.
–I love Fuzzie’s approach of using short puts to re-establish after losing a covered call position but mostly I just re-establish with new stock positions since I’m all about risk control on these.
I’ll keep posting updates on this, and when new positions are established.
Everyone have a safe weekend.
Sue
DRIP
Whiz was predicting an Iran attack but I’ll take this. Serves the same purpose…
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Saudi-Revenge-Iran-Reports-Oil-Tanker-Explosion.html
/ES Lottery Ticket
#Futures – Just for fun rolling profits and going inverted for the weekend.
Sold to Close /ES NOV 19 (Wk3) 3100.00 Call @ 4.20 (bought for 2.40)
Then:
Bought to Open /ES NOV 19 (Wk3) 2600.00 Put @ 2.95
SPX out
#SPX1dte Stopped: BTC $SPX Oct 11th 2290/3010 call spreads for 5.20. Condors sold yesterday for 1.35.
Stopped: BTC $SPX Oct 14th 2985/3010 call spreads for 11.00. Condors sold Wednesday for 3.15.
I’m taking a break. I’ve been absolutely slaughtered since the beginning of August. It has been a combination of mistakes, two signals in a row not working, and a completely unpredictable news-driven market. I cannot put on another trade today. I’ll still be here every day, and will resume the low-risk earnings trades next week, and the 1-day spreads once things calm down.
VXX
VXX
STC 3x Jan 20 20.00 Calls $1.55 now have 2x with a credit cost
Gartman goes short
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gartman-goes-short
SPX too volatile
#SPX1dte I didn’t get what I wanted today and it’s just too risky to hold in this news-driven market with trade talks continuing into tomorrow. I think the most likely scenario is some partial deal that everyone gets excited about and the algos drive us higher, followed by a dump next week. But it’s just too uncertain (and ridiculous) to have on the risk.
BTC $SPX Oct 14th 2950/2975 call spreads for 9.55. Sold yesterday for 7.00.
/ES Lottery Ticket
#Futures – Just in case we get a trade deal might make a buck or two. Low risk…
Bought to Open /ES NOV 19 (Wk3) 3100.00 Call @2.40
#earnings #closing DAL Bought strangle…
Watching our old friend KOLD
The chart is starting to look intriguing for a fade (i.e., long nat gas) but strikes and expirations not actionable right now. Not much premium above 40 in November. If nat gas continues to be weak for the next couple of weeks, there may be a play in December (options will open up after October expiration next week). For now, Feb highest strike is 46 with the bid/ask really wide (1.00 x 5.70). Holding off but keeping an eye on it.
Putting the “Fix” back in StitchFix
I trade a relatively small account and have never really traded cash-secured Puts before, so I decided to dip my toe into that as well as prepare to be assigned, since I’ve never gone down that road before. Here’s summary of trades since $SFIX earnings went down:
10/1 BTO Oct 11 $23.00 Call $1.40 Debit (Expiring worthless today)
10/2 STO Oct 4 $17.00 Put: $0.26 Credit
10/3 BTC Oct 4 $17.00 Put: $0.10 Debit
10/3 STO Oct 11 $17.50 Put: $0.55 Credit
10/4 BTC Oct 11 $17.50 Put: $0.25 Debit
10/4 STO Oct 11 $20.00 Put: $0.70 Credit
10/7 BTC Oct 11 $20.00 Put: $0.50 Debit
10/8 STO Oct 11 $19.50 Put: $0.42 Credit
10/9 BTC Oct 11 $19.50 Put: $0.15 Debit
10/10 Nov 15 Synthetic Long (ish): STO $20 Put/BTO $21 Call: $0.25 Net Debit (Stock right around $21.00 at time of trade)
Bullish on SFIX, price target for the next week or two will be $23.00. I’ll hold for at least a a week or until that hits and scoop a couple hundred out of it. Volume profile has a gap with some slight resistance at $23.00, but it’s pretty open until about $27.00.
Have a good weekend!
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 2835/2855-2990/3010 condors for 1.35, IV 21.30%, SPX 2934.
High IV, lots of news expected.
#closing SPX October 8, sold…
#closing SPX
October 8, sold Nov. 15, 2600/2700/2700/2750 for 2.60, bought today for 1.05
TRADES:
HIIQ STO 10/18/19 26.0 CALLS @.90
SFIX BTO STOCK @21.18 Broke a double top, on the Point & Figure Chart @21.0 today. Taking a shot. Probably sell calls against the stock, covering them.
#shortputspread UNG #tastytradefollow Sold Nov….
#shortputspread UNG
#tastytradefollow Sold Nov. 15, 14/19 put spread for .95
crm
The chart is breaking lower with the 10,20,and 50 day all below the 150 and 200 day MA. Earnings are not until November 25, so I bought the February 21, 145 put at 8.80 and sold the November 15, 125 put at .45cents. I am trying to sell the November 8, 160 calls as well.
TRADES:
HIIQ STO 11/15/19 29.0 CALLS @1.20
HIIQ STO 10/18/19 25.0 CALLS @1.25 Expires tomorrow. Covered. I love this stock, yeh, I know, DON’T fall in love with a stock, but what’s not to love, the MM gives you the stock, option at the quote. Margin use is small, so you can trade like a millionaire. ;>)
Algos run our lives
BREAKING: Stocks jump after Trump tweets he will meet with China's Vice Premier at the White House tomorrow on trade amid reports of little trade talk progress https://t.co/ivEB35OTNo pic.twitter.com/XPRhnix73y
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) October 10, 2019
SPX Monday
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2800/2825-2985/3010 condors for 3.15, IV: 17.01%, SPX close: 2919.
Sold a couple minutes after the closing bell.
Nuts
#Market So we opened the day higher due to reports that “China is open to a partial US trade deal.”
Now this:
BREAKING: Stocks pull back by about 90 points after Reuters reports that Beijing has lowered expectations for trade talks this week. https://t.co/pWxu4hGRlD pic.twitter.com/Y7lXpOS9yM
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) October 9, 2019
SBUX iron condor
Sold $SBUX 11/15 iron condor: 70/80/90/100 @ 2.07 with the stock at 85.91. IV rank is high at 69, partly because of earnings in the cycle (expected 10/30 or 10/31 but not yet confirmed). I plan to be out of this trade before then, hopefully for a profit if contracting IV and theta cooperate.
SPX aggressive
#SPX1dte I am considering the Downside Warning and general market weakness. I look at the daily chart and see resistance at 2950 for most of August. I’ve been burned on some of these aggressive spreads recently so I’ll keep a tight leash on it. The biggest risk is, of course, news or a tweet.
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2950/2975 call spreads for 7.00.
DPZ
BTC DPZ 210/220/270/280 Oct 18 2019 #IC @0.25 (0.05 put and 0.20 call side 0.25 total) – was STO 10/7/2019 @ 1.55
Once again Jeff – many thanks for the data!
#earnings DAL Sold Nov. 15,…
#earnings DAL
Sold Nov. 15, 50/57.50 strangle for 1.64.
Thanks for the data Jeff.
#fallingknife #shortputs NKTR Sold Nov….
#fallingknife #shortputs NKTR HP
Sold Nov. 15, 35 put for 1.55 with stock at 36, earnings Nov. 13.
Sold Nov. 15, 15 put for .85 with stock in the low 16s
Thanks for the #fallingknife list Iceman
DAL earnings analysis
#Earnings $DAL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 11, 2019 BO +1.16%
April 10, 2019 BO +1.59%
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.16%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO +3.56%
July 12, 2018 BO +1.78%
April 12, 2018 BO +2.93%
Jan. 11, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
Oct. 11, 2017 BO +0.70%
July 13, 2017 BO -1.76% Biggest DOWN
April 12, 2017 BO -0.52%
Jan. 12, 2017 BO -1.06%
Oct. 13, 2016 BO +1.88%
Avg (+ or -) 1.82%
Bias 1.27%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 54.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 51.16 to 56.84
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 53.02 to 54.98
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.8%): 51.43 to 56.57
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 53.05
Open to requests for other symbols.
DPZ closed
#Earnings Sold to close $DPZ Oct11/Oct18 242.5 #DoubleCalendar for 2.05. Bought Tuesday for 1.05. Only got filled on a 1-lot; should have forced the issue!
DRIP
#BearCallSpreads – Can’t resist…adding one.
Sold DRIP DEC 20 2019 130.0/140.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.60
UVXY
#ShortPuts – Adding to offset some of the bear call spreads…
Sold UVXY OCT 11 2019 27.5 Puts @ .60
WYNN
#CoveredCalls – Sitting under some resistance so continuing to sell aggressively. Earnings not until first week of Nov so plenty of time for more adjustments/sales before then. Let’s see China prove me wrong! LOL
Sold WYNN OCT 18 2019 105.0 Calls @ 3.00 and 3.05
UVXY WYNN
#BearCallSpreads #CoveredCalls – A couple late fills while I was out…
Sold UVXY DEC 20 2019 40.0/50.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.30
Bought to Close WYNN OCT 11 2019 110.0 Calls @ .10 (sold for 2.05)
#brokenwingbutterfly SPX #tastytradefollow at the…
#brokenwingbutterfly SPX
#tastytradefollow at the bell sold Nov. 15, 2600/2700/2700/2750 for 2.60
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 9th 2830/2850-2955/2975 condors for 1.15, IV 16.66%, SPX 2906.
ULTA put spread
Sold $ULTA Nov 15 225/220 bull put spread @ 2.36. Stock bouncing intraday. Delta of short puts 27. IV rank high at 65.
#shortstrangles SMH #tastytradefollow Sold Nov….
#shortstrangles SMH
#tastytradefollow Sold Nov. 15, 97/128 strangle for 1.05, currently at 117.
#markettide Is showing a possible…
Is showing a possible reversal on the 5 minute for /ES.
IBB STO the other side of the strangle at 103 c for 0.65 for 11/8 exp. Strangle is now the 101.5/103 for 3.45 credit total after some rolls. I am trying this as an experiment based on the TT research. Open initially at 43-45 DTE then manage at 21 DTE no matter what. Rolled the put side last week. They showed that beats all other management tactics for selling options so seeing how it works in real time with real money. 10 contracts so there is some skin in the game. So far so good, showing an $875 profit even with the puts being ITM. If it works will set up ladders on various ETFs. Single tickers would use #jadelizard to avoid upside risk.
#fuzzy
XBI rolled the short 80 put from 10 DTE out to 24 DTE for 0.42 credit. Cb 13.66.
LNG 60/65 rolled out to 45 DTE for 0.52 credit. Cb 7.12.
SPX 4-dte stopped
#SPX1dte . Looks like the Downside Warning may come through. BTC $SPX Oct 11th 2855/2830 put spreads for 4.00. Condors sold yesterday for 3.00. Stop breached when SPX went below 2905. Perhaps it found support at 2900, but it looks like we could be going lower so getting out while it’s cheap.
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Adding one…
Sold UVXY NOV 15 2019 35.0/45.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.35
XBI
#ShortPuts – Adding another one…
Sold XBI NOV 15 2019 73.0 Put @ 2.10
DPZ earnings analysis
#Earnings $DPZ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 16, 2019 BO -8.66%
April 24, 2019 BO +4.89%
Feb. 21, 2019 BO -9.14%
Oct. 16, 2018 BO -4.87%
July 19, 2018 BO -2.44%
April 26, 2018 BO +7.31% Biggest UP
Feb. 20, 2018 BO +0.33%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -3.73%
July 25, 2017 BO -10.08% Biggest DOWN
April 27, 2017 BO +2.53%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO +2.36%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +4.89%
Avg (+ or -) 5.10%
Bias -1.38%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 242.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 225.42 to 259.58
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 230.13 to 254.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.1%): 218.06 to 266.94
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 260.23
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 2830/2855-3005/3030 condors for 3.00, IV17.92%, SPX 2945.
WORK
Rolled $WORK Oct 18 2019 28 Calls // Nov 15 2019 30 @0.25. Basis at 37.82. Still chipping away.
TRADES:
HIIQ STO 10/18/19 24.0 PUTS @1.25 Want to own stock a little cheaper.
NTNX STO 10/11/19 27.0 CALLS .30
CHWY STO 10/11/19 27.0 CALLS @.35
#earnings #closing ROKU Finito May…
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Oct 7th 2885 puts for .05. Taking off downside risk, allowing remainder of condor to expire (sold Friday for 1.00)
Jeff, I am following with…
Jeff, I am following with VXX Jan 20 20 Puts. So far so good but what is the longer term plan on how to play this name? I have bought 4 so far and sold 1 for a double so I have 3 at a total cost of around 2.10. (0.70 ea).
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 2865/2885-2980/3000 condors for 1.00, IV: 9.92%, SPX 2943.
Expiring today (hopefully): 2820/2840-2950/2970 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20.
SPX 1-DTE Stopped
SPX 1-DTE 2950/2970 Call side @0.85. Condor sold yesterday for 1.20. Stop was at 2942.5.
Closing GDXJ
Bought to close $GDXJ 10/18 35/42 strangle @ .31. Sold for .79 on 9/19.
DRIP
#BearCallSpreads – Adding again even though I couldn’t quite get the premium of the starter position. Pretty much a full position now before oil prices spike again on the next Saudi attack.
Sold DRIP DEC 20 2019 130.0/140.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.50
SHOP
#CoveredCalls – Rolling for nice credit and keeping some downside protection. Rolling into what should be a week or two before earnings.
Rolled SHOP OCT 04 2019 295.0 Call to OCT 18 2019 297.5 Call @ 1.50 Credit (16.00 total now)
WYNN
#CoveredCalls – Sitting under some resistance so continuing to sell aggressively. Earnings not until first week of Nov so plenty of time for more adjustments/sales before then.
Bought to Close WYNN OCT 04 2019 110.0 Calls @ .10 (sold for 2.80)
Sold WYNN OCT 11 2019 110.0 Calls @ 2.05
SPX Monday call spread closed
#SPX1dte . BTC $SPX Oct 7th 2960/2985 call spread for 1.95. Condors sold for 2.85 on Wednesday. It came within expected move today. The #VIXIndicator is getting whipsawed this time around. It will suck two get to false signals in a row, but it is shaping up that way right now. Next week will give us the answers.
#earnings #closing COST Closed Nov….
Closed Nov. 15 #jadelizard and Oct. 18 long put spread from yesterday, made $70.
STZ
COST closed
#Earnings . Sold to close $COST Oct04/Oct11 285 #DoubleCalendar for 4.00. Bought yesterday for 2.00.
I thought I was asking too much to start at 4.00, but it filled at the bell. Could have gotten more.
September Jobs Report
#Jobs — 50-year low in unemployment rate
+136,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 145K expected
Unemployment at 3.5%, lowest since 1969
U6 unemployment at 6.9%, down by 0.3
Wages unchanged, 2.9% year over year
Labor force participation 63.2%, unchanged
August revised up from 130K to 168K
July revised up from 159K to 166K
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 4th 2820/2840-2950/2970 condors for 1.20, IV: 17.18%, SPX 2904.
COST dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $COST Oct04/Oct11 285 #DoubleCalendar for 2.00. Order was put in hours ago, took awhile to fill.
Here’s the link to the…
Here’s the link to the 21 DTE management research I mentioned earlier.
There is a second part and some other videos related to it. Like I said around pages 7-12 on market measure reruns.
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/ways-of-managing-trades-05-09-2019
TRADES:
OSTX BTC 10/4/19 12.0 & 12.5 CALLS @.05
BYND STO 10/11/19 135/130 BuPS @1.05
GOOS BTO STOCK AGAIN, @38.66
GOOS STO 10/4/19 38.5 PUTS @.45
STNE STO COV. 35.0 CALLS @.55
Back in playoff mode…
Raised the banner last night at the Blues opener. Time to focus on October baseball now!
#earnings #jadelizard COST Sold Nov….
#earnings #jadelizard COST
Sold Nov. 15, 265/290/295 jade lizard for 5.67
bought Oct. 18, 250/260 long put spread for .55 as a downside hedge
Thanks for the data Jeff
The new commissions at TOS…
The new commissions at TOS kicked in and are nice. Less money out 🙂
I have been trying to…
I have been trying to move out of the leveraged ETFs but am stuck in a few for a while. Tastytrade did some research that shows trading options on the leveraged has much lower returns than just trading the regular ETF. Even accounting for contango/drift/ backwardization. My personal results show that as well. I know a lot of people here trade them but it may be more effective to not option trade them. As a hedge, sure they work but for options not so much. With the volatility over the last month or so, I have had trouble staying ahead of the fluctuations. The premiums are huge but the options are not priced for the movement for selling them.
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/trading-options-on-leveraged-etfs-11-26-2018
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/leveraged-etfs-not-consistent-performance-03-31-2016
#pietrades
With that said rolled
LABU 35 cc out 29 DTE for 1 and cost basis down to 33.80. My plan is to let call out if ITM and use it on something else.
TQQQ 60 CC rolled out to next week fr 0.98. Cb 57.52. Same as above.
LABU 35.5 cc rolled out 22 DTE and down to 35 for 0.90. Cb 33.49. Same
EXPE STO the 29 DTE 123 put for 2.05. Timing could not have been worse, market reversed 2 minute after that.
#fuzzy
XBI #fuzzy rolled 80/80 out to 22 DTE for 0.65 credit. Cb now 0.85. Still have until 2021 to keep making $ on this one.
XBI #fuzzy 80/83 rolled down to 80/80 and 29 DTE for 0.88 credit. Cb 3.99.
LNG 65/62.5/61/60 rolled this weeks 61 and 62.5 to 61 and 62 for 22 and 29 DTE for 0.56 and 0.88 credits. Cb now 5.34
Also don’t know if any of you saw the Tastytrade episodes, market measures in the summer, search back to around page 7-12 on strangles showing that managing strangles/trades at 21 DTE beat all other management strategies, period. Even better than 50% profits. There are about 3-4 sessions on that. I have an IBB experiment going on starting 43-45 DTE and managing at 21-22 DTE. Hard to tell how it is working with the volatility but I rolled IBB yesterday (just the put side). Will re-establish the strangle depending on where we end up this week or next. I also have an ITM #jadelizard experiment going on at opening at 21 DTE. Will let you know results once I have a few cycles.
Not trying to brag but my core account just hit an all time high so I must be doing something right. That wipes out the SVXY losses on 1 account. 2 others still have a way to go but this is my largest trading account so nice to know I covered those losses in 21 months. I originally thought it would take much longer. I suspect the other 2 accounts will take another 12 months on 1 and 24 on the other. Chipping away and will hope to never make that mistake again!!!!
Trade smart, stay nimble 🙂
SPY
#ShortPuts – Adding to monthly ladder…
Sold SPY DEC 20 2019 260.0 Put @ 3.20
TSLA
UVXY
#ShortPuts – Filled on one lousy contract seconds before the implosion…
Sold UVXY OCT 11 2019 26.5 Put @ .59
Non-Manufacturing, too?
September #ISM non-manufacturing index fell 3.8 points to 52.6 (lowest since August 2016 & well below even most pessimistic forecast in Bloomberg survey); growth in orders/business activity plunged & employment registered weakest print in more than 5y
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 3, 2019
COST earnings analysis
#Earnings $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 30, 2019 AC -0.81%
March 7, 2019 AC +5.08% Biggest UP
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -8.58% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97%
May 25, 2017 AC +1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +2.43%
Sept. 29, 2016 AC +3.40%
Avg (+ or -) 3.56%
Bias -0.89%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 285.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 272.00 to 298.00
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 274.86 to 295.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-8.6%): 260.55 to 309.45
Based on DOWN max only (+5.1%): 299.48
Open to requests for other symbols.
Downside Warning in effect
#VIXIndicator So after the failure of the Upside, we entered a Downside at today’s close. This signal usually means the market goes lower over the coming days.
NUGT closings
Just catching up on my trades.
I closed both of these positions for around overall breakeven (they were rollouts from losing Sep short calls).
-Bought to close $NUGT 12/20 53 calls @ 1.18. Overall profit .11.
-Bought to close $NUGT 10/18 32 calls @ 1.63. Overall profit .22.
My only remaining NUGT position is short 10/18 27 calls (another one from a Sep rollout).