BTO $EW Oct 26th/Nov 2nd 150 call/put double calendars for 1.40
BTO $UPS Oct 26th/Nov 2nd 115 call/put double calendar for .89
Recent Updates Page 286
#shortputs USO sold Dec 21,…
#shortputs USO
sold Dec 21, 14 put for .59
#shortstock #closing BNS Oct. 18,…
#shortstock #closing BNS
Oct. 18, sold 100 shares short for 54.52, bought to cover today today for 54.21, was greedy and gave some away but out for big city lunch money.
EWW GLD LABU OLED RTN SMH XBI
#LongCalls #LEAPS – A few buys a few sells and another 2021 roll on a beaten down name.
EWW:
Bought to Close EWW OCT 26 2018 48.5 Calls @ .02 (sold for .32)
Sold EWW NOV 9 2018 48.0 Calls @ .37
GLD: Ratio’d and rolling to give it some room…
Rolled GLD NOV 9 2018 115.0 Calls to DEC 21 2018 117.0 Calls @ .25 debit
LABU: Rolled LEAPS to 2021 and booked a weekly. No new sales yet.
Rolled LABU JAN 17 2020 110.0 Calls to JAN 15 2021 110.0 Calls @ 3.95 debit
Bought to Close LABU OCT 26 2018 70.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.31)
OLED: Earnings sale leaving a lot of room to adjust prior to the announcement
Sold OLED NOV 2 2018 125.0 Calls @ 1.50
RTN: Selling half the week after earnings and waiting on the rest.
Sold RTN NOV 2 2018 202.5 Calls @ .70
SMH:
Bought to Close SMH OCT 26 2018 101.0 Calls @ .03 (sold for .65)
Sold SMH NOV 16 2018 100.0 Calls @ .58
XBI:
Bought to Close XBI NOV 9 2018 94.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.14)
Sold XBI NOV 9 2018 87.0 Calls @ .65
BTFD?
Wow.
ILMN
#Earnings #IronFlies – I can’t walk away from the table. Risking my /NQ overnight profit here for a bigger payoff. Selling an iron fly just inside the expected move. 15 wide on a 19.80 move. Risking 325 to make 1175…
Sold ILMN OCT 26 2018 300.0/315.0/330.0 Iron Fly @ 11.75
TNA and UVXY Sold on…
TNA and UVXY
Sold on GTC in the morning.
STO TNA Apr18’19 40 PUT 2.50
STO TNA Apr18’19 45 PUT 3.50
STO TNA Jan18’19 45 PUT 2.00
STO TNA Jan18’19 50 PUT 2.80
STO TNA Nov02’18 55 PUT 1.10
STO UVXY Jan18’19 112 CALL 7.00
TRADES:
TWLO BTO STOCK 68.57 Covering some short 68.5 Calls expiring this Friday.
SFIX BTC 10/26/18 27.0 CALLS @.05
SFIX STO 11/2/18 25.5 CALLS @.45
S
SPX puts & UVXY call sold
#SPXcampaign Intended as a day trade… doubtful that I’ll hold overnight.
Sold $SPX Oct 26th 2700/2675 put spreads for 5.95.
Also, sold $UVXY Jan 2019 112 call for 5.25.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Oct 26th 2820/2845 call spreads for .45. Sold Friday for 7.10.
This profit covers a large part of my dying long #PreEarnings trades.
GLW DubCal for earnings play
Bot GLW Oct26/Nov2 31 put/call calendar ydy @ .20. Sold today @ .37 x10
#shortputspread CAT Followed Ramie’s idea,…
#shortputspread CAT
Followed Ramie’s idea, sold Dec. 105/110 put spread for 1.06.
ILMN DubCal for earnings play
Bot ILMN Oct26/Nov2 double calendar 305 call/put @ 2.77.
/CL
BTC the the 52 DTE 55/86 strangle for 0.28. Sold for 0.3 so a $100 profit after a week and at least I can say I made money on something these last few weeks.
Also freed up cash and margin for a hopeful bottom
#shortcalls UVXY sold Jan. 112…
#shortcalls UVXY
sold Jan. 112 call for 6.05, highest strike
BIIB
#Earnings #ShortStrangles – Since there are other tickers I’d like to play on their earnings I’m booking this one since it’s a bit pricey. Goal was to get half of max but volatility expansion today isn’t allowing it. Stock is behaving nicely but strictly out of risk management I’m shipping it on down the road.
Bought to Close BIIB OCT 26 2018 295.0/345.0 Strangle @ 3.13 (sod for 5.20)
Any green?
My watchlist is a sea of red but there are surprisingly some regular stocks (not volatility) that are green…
AMBA
BIIB
CMG
PM
RTN
T
TSLA
WHR
Back to the drawing board.
Officially went flat on the year with todays drop on paper. Gave back all the profits since Feb. Obviously income investing cannot keep up with extended moves.
I am comfortable with my directional trading now but do not have the time to watch the markets all day.
Have to come up with a hybrid trading model. Core based on income investing but really need to take some directional plays to boost returns and keep up with the extended directional moves. As I generate cash with rolls will figure out how to do that better.
Hope everyone else is preserving some gains.
#shortstock #closing KBE Oct. 17…
#shortstock #closing KBE
Oct. 17 sold short 100 shares at 44.19, bought to cover today for 41.72, minus a transaction fee of 13.90. Imagine a bank ETF with some transaction fee, heh heh.
TNA
#ShortPuts #IRA – Getting down into levels where I definitely wouldn’t mind owning some. Adding to the ladder…
Sold TNA DEC 21 2018 50.0 Put @ 2.50
TQQQ
#ShortPuts #IRA – Sold TQQQ Jan 18 2019 40.0 Put @ 2.50
ILMN earnings
#Earnings Sold $ILMN 275/350 strangles for 2.65. Analysis in my post below.
LMT DubCal
Bot Oct26/Nov2 325 double calendar ydy to play thru earnings. Bot @ 2.15. Sold @ 4.
BA Earnings Analysis
#Earnings $BA reports tomorrow before the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 25, 2018 BO -0.65%
April 25, 2018 BO 4.19%
Jan. 31, 2018 BO 4.93%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO -2.84%
July 26, 2017 BO 9.87% Biggest UP
April 26, 2017 BO -0.98%
Jan. 25, 2017 BO 4.24%
Oct. 26, 2016 BO 4.68%
July 27, 2016 BO 0.82%
April 27, 2016 BO 2.88%
Jan. 27, 2016 BO -8.92% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 21, 2015 BO 1.66%
Avg + or – 3.89%
Bias 1.66%, slight upside bias on earnings.
With stock at 345.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 326.25 to 363.75
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 332.55 to 359.45
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.9%): 311.85 to 380.15
UVXY call spread
Sold $UVXY Nov 9 75/85 bear call spread @ 1.24. When things calm down this should come in quickly.
TT Cherry Picks
https://tinyurl.com/ycofjoja
TSLA tomorrow
#Earnings It looks like TSLA has announced earnings date of tomorrow. Thanks @optioniceman for the heads up.
In addition to 300 call I sold earlier (and early), sold Oct 26th 230 call for 2.05
http://ir.tesla.com/events/event-details/tesla-inc-q3-2018-financial-results-and-qa-webcast
ILMN Earnings Analysis
#Earnings $ILMN reports today after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 30, 2018 AC 12.14%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.06%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC -3.54% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -2.83%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC 14.82% Biggest UP
April 25, 2017 AC 1.69%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC 0.92%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -2.75%
July 26, 2016 AC 8.09%
May 3, 2016 AC 0.98%
Feb. 2, 2016 AC -3.36%
Oct. 20, 2015 AC -3.39%
Avg + or – 4.80%
Bias 1.64%, slight upside bias on earnings.
With stock at 146.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 285.32 to 328.68
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 292.27 to 321.73
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.8%): 261.50 to 352.50
AMZN
STO 1550/1570 bull put spread @3.60 credit.
#shortstock #shortputs #rolling #closing MRO…
#shortstock #shortputs #rolling #closing MRO
Sept. 10 sold short 100 shares @ 20.40 and MRO started going up. Bought to cover today for 19.66 after rolling an Oct. 26, 20.50 put to Nov. 23, 20 put for .30, making me long MRO.
EW Earnings Analysis
#Earnings $EW reports after the bell today. This is not one I’ve traded often, if ever, but the premium makes it look interesting. Chart is a little wacky, however. Watch your risk
Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC 3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC 0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC 10.49%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09%
July 26, 2016 AC 5.62%
April 26, 2016 AC 0.08%
Feb. 2, 2016 AC 8.33%
Oct. 26, 2015 AC 2.76%
Avg + or – 6.60%
Bias -1.31%, downside bias on earnings.
With stock at 146.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 132.96 to 159.04
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 136.37 to 155.63
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 121.05 to 170.95
TSLA call
Sold $TSLA Oct 26th 300 call for 4.60.
Earnings date is not confirmed but all indications say it’ll be next week. But the uncertainty may be why this Friday’s options are jacked up.
CAT Nov
Sold $CAT Nov 16 110/100 bull put spread for 1.25 credit
T2108
I think we get it below 5% today.
Notable Earnings Mon:
CADE, HAL, HAS, IQV, KMB, ONB, PETS, PHG, PII, SALT, TCF
Notable Earnings Tues:
ACC, ALKS, AMTD, ATI, AVY, BRO, CAT, CDNS, CIT, CNC, DGX, EDU, FITB, FNB, GLW, GPK, HBAN, HLX, HOG, HUBB, HXL, JBLU, LPT, MBFI, MCD, MMM, NEE, PCAR, PHM, PNR, RF, SLCA, SLM, SNV, SPN, TRU, UTX, VZ, WAT, XRX, ZION
Notable Earnings Wed:
ALXN, AMP, APH, BKU, BPOP, BSX, BXMT, CB, CHKP, CNI, COF, CSL, DTE, EQR, EW, FCX, GD, GRA, HA, HIW, HLT, IR, IRBT, ITW, JNPR, LH, MANH, NAVI, NDAQ, NSC, NYCB, OC, PB, QSR, RES, RHI, ROIC, ROL, RRC, SEIC, SIX, SMPL, STL, STM, T, TER, TMO, TPH, TRVG, TSS, TUP, TXN, UPS, VAR, WRB
Notable Earnings Thurs:
AAL, AAN, ABB, ABX, AEM, AEP, AFL, AIMC, ALK, ALLE, ALLY, AMD, ARI, ASGN, AXTA, BC, BEN, BHE, BMS, BMY, BUD, BWA, CCE, CELG, CFX, CLGX, CLS, CMC, CMCSA, CME, CMS, COP, CRI, CSTM, CTXS, CVBF, DNKN, DRE, ECHO, EFX, ELY, ENTG, EQC, EQM, EQT, FAF, FBP, FFIV, FNF, FR, FTI, GG, GGG, GRUB, HSY, IMAX, IP, IRDM, IRM, KIM, KKR, KN, KNX, KRC, KS, LAZ, LDOS, LEA, LKQ, LM, LUV, LVS, MCK, MEOH, MLNX, MMC, MO, MRK, MSFT, MTH, NEM, NLSN, NOW, NRZ, NTRI, NVCR, NVT, ODFL, OII, ORI, PKG, PS, PTC, PTEN, PX, QEP, RCL, RJF, RS, RTN, SAVE, SCG, SHOP, SITC, SNBR, SPG, SPGI, SRE, SRPT, SWK, TAL, TECK, TMK, TRN, TROW, TSCO, TWTR, UNM, UNP, V, VC, VLO, VLY, VRTX, WHR, WM, WRI, WWE, XEL, XLNX
Notable Earnings Fri:
AJG, ALV, AON, ARLO, AVT, BIDU, BMRN, BOOT, BVN, BYD, CA, CBLK, CENX, CERN, CINF, CL, COG, COL, CPT, CUBE, CVA, CXP, CY, DECK, DFS, DLR, ELLI, EMN, EXPE, FBHS, FE, FHB, FII, FLEX, FSLR, FTV, GDI, GILD, GT, HIG, HTA, INTC, INVA, ISBC, JEF, KEX, LEG, LOGM, LPLA, LSCC, MAT, MCO, MHK, MMSI, MPWR, NATI, NOV, OFC, PFG, PFPT, POR, PSX, R, REG, RMD, ROP, RSG, SGEN, SIVB, SNAP, SOHU, SWN, SYK, TEN, UHS, VRSN, VTR, WDC, WETF, WY, WYNN, ZBH
Creative license
I took the liberty of revising Iceman’s favorite j-peg.
/NQ scalp…
#Futures – Got excited and had to share. Took 19 points out of the NQ futures in my first live money try using the Theo Trade strategy. Just played the tiny bounce off 7100…
#spycraft If I can generate…
If I can generate enough cash with some rolls this week, I might start nibbling on SPY IC or at least one sided credit spreads. Would be a shame not to at least collect a few $ with the premiums being higher than they have been in a long time.
BIIB
#Earnings #ShortStrangles – Just going with one in case I have to manage it for awhile. Based on Jeff’s data (BTW…which I love what he’s doing with those posts…thank you!!) selling near the max move.
Sold BIIB OCT 26 2018 295.0/345.0 Strangle @ 5.20
#lophir #closing WMT Closed Oct….
LMT pre-ER
Sold LMT pre-ER long calls @ 94% loss and BWB for 38% loss. Still holding double calendar thru earnings to reduce losses.
BIIB strangle
#Earnings Sold to Open $BIIB Oct 26th 285/350 strangle for 3.35. Filled on 1, have another 1 pending. Strikes are just outside expected move when I posted the analysis earlier. However, IV has dropped intraday and now expected move is 296 to 343, which is the same as the MAX moves over last 12 quarters.
I’ll likely sell a third later in the day, but 3 is my max at this high of a stock price.
XBI
#LongCalls #LEAPS – With biotech in the dumpster any 2020 positions I don’t mind keeping are in a perfect position to roll to 2021 for minimal cost.
Rolled XBI JAN 17 2020 97.0 Calls to JAN 15 2021 97.0 Calls @ 3.70 debit
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Setting up for next week. Selling weekly strangles against my long LEAP puts. Less calls than puts for safety.
Sold UVXY NOV 2 2018 70.0 Call @ 2.35
AMBA
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Nice start to the week…
Bought to Close AMBA OCT 26 2018 39.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .55)
Sold AMBA NOV 9 2018 36.0 Calls @ .62
LMT double calendar
Bot LMT Oct26/Nov2 325 put/call @ 1.95. Will hold thru earnings as a potential salvage trade for the pre-ER positions not working out.
KMB puts
Big move down after earnings.
Sold $KMB Jan 18 95 puts @ 1.35. Strike is at what would be a 5 year low (last traded at 95 in Oct 2013). Stock at 105.61, delta of puts 18.
TQQQ
I roll my November 2, 58 calls to November 9, 58.5 calls for a credit of .30 cents. I need .18 cents per week so I am getting an extra .12 cents and an increase in the strike price of 1/2 point.
LITE pre-earnings
Sold two BWB (broken-wing fly) for average 10% profit. Got out based on hitting target price on LITE. The flies don’t profit as much as the long calls but they have less risk too.
LABU
STO November 2, 72 calls @ .55 cents. These are against my 2020, 115 calls but I still have 64 weeks to earn the premium to pay for this position.
Added to SPY
#LongCalls Bought $SPY Nov 16th 284 calls for 1.25, adding to my position.
Closing NFLX call spread
Bought to close $NFLX Nov 16 400/410 bear call spread for .21. Sold for 2.00 on 10/17.
SVXY
Covered calls. STO November 2, 54 calls @.30 cents.
BABA pre-ER sold
Sold BABA pre-ER positions for average profit of 31%. Based on possibility of China one-day bounce.
BIIB Earnings Analysis
#Earnings $BIIB reports before the bell tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 24, 2018 BO 4.10%
April 24, 2018 BO 1.09%
Jan. 25, 2018 BO 2.08%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO -3.90%
July 25, 2017 BO -0.61%
April 25, 2017 BO 3.62%
Jan. 26, 2017 BO 2.06%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC -1.87%
July 21, 2016 BO 7.63%
April 21, 2016 BO 5.15%
Jan. 27, 2016 BO 5.15%
Oct. 21, 2015 BO 3.96%
Avg + or – 3.44%
Bias +2.37%, upside bias on earnings.
With stock at 319.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 288.77 to 349.23
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 308.04 to 329.96
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 294.66 to 343.34
It is rare that the implied volatility is predicting a move that is larger than the stock’s biggest moves over 12 quarters. There is decent premium beyond the IV extremes, but bid/ask spreads are wide. Stock is currently at the 200 ema.
Up, up, and away?
Equity futures prices have climbed overnight and are looking to open higher following the biggest rally in Chinese equities since 2015. China had a huge day rising 4.1%.
Read more in our Morning Lineup: https://t.co/AuqANPJSJP pic.twitter.com/yf1ShvFsmN— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 22, 2018
FromSMM
Gartman says we could go down 15 to20% from here. Buy,buy,buy.
Pre-Earnings entries for next week
AAPL BMY DIS GE LITE VALE
Trade at your own risk.:-)
Expirations Have a nice weekend.
LABU 80 calls
LABU 92.5 calls
SVXY 62 calls
AMZN 1580/1600 bull put spread
#shortputspread IBM Borrowed concept from…
#shortputspread IBM
Borrowed concept from Tastytrade. IBM hasn’t been this low since January of 2016. Sold a couple Dec. 115/120 put spreads at .81 each.
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Selling the crap out of this before it eventually implodes. Selling weekly strangles against my long LEAP puts.
Bought to Close UVXY OCT 19 2018 50.0 Puts @ .05 (sold for 2.35)
Sold UVXY OCT 26 2018 51.0 Puts @ 2.10
LABU OLED XBI
#LongCalls #LEAPS #BullPutSpreads – Weeklies against various positions. Missed this morning where these could’ve all done better but taking what I can get.
LABU:
Bought to Close LABU NOV 2 2018 95.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.35)
Sold LABU OCT 26 2018 70.0 Calls @ 1.31
OLED:
Bought to Close OLED OCT 26 2018 130.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 1.30)
Sold OLED OCT 26 2018 117.0 Call @ 1.20
XBI:
Bought to Close XBI NOV 2 2018 95.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.10)
Sold XBI NOV 2 2018 89.0 Calls @ .76
#shortstock #shortputs MRO Sold an…
#shortstock #shortputs MRO IMAX
Sold an Oct. 26, 20.5 put for .38, covered by short stock, a reverse covered call.
Sold short 100 shares of IMAX at 22.48
#earnings #closing NFLX Oct. 16…
Oct. 16 sold 265/270/400/405 #ironcondor for 1.01, bought today for 56.
Oct. 15, followed Ramie and sold a 410/420 #shortcallspreads for 1.26, bought today for .25.
Econ Calendar for week of Oct 22-26, 2018
Be sure to periodically click Home/REFRESH to keep Bistro features updated.
Lophir petri dishes broke
Closed the last of my lophirs this week: ADBE, AMZN, GOOGL, ISRG, JNJ, MMM, PG. Loss against max risk ranged from 20% to 80%. It’s a good thing I made money in AMZN earlier this year or I would have been really unhappy.
Pre-ER trades
When a system doesn’t work, stop trading it. No more pre-ER this quarter for me. That means they’ll probably start working like a charm. I’ve been doing these systematically for two years. This is the first quarter where the losses are piling up.
Closed GPC long calls and straddle for a profit (held thru earnings)
Sold a double cal in HON to end up with a profit overall (unusual adjustment)
Full loss on VFC
Still holding AMZN, BABA, CAT, EOG, GOOGL, LITE, LMT, MSFT, ROKU, SHOP, SWK with limited risk. All losing except LITE at this point.
Will update the pre-ER spreadsheet with actual percent gains and losses after the close
#preearnings
TQQQ
I rolled my November 2, 66 calls, 66.5 calls, and 67 calls down to the November 2, 58 calls for an average credit of 2.76 which covers 15 weeks of my weekly calls at .18 cents per week. I have covered 18% of my cost and have 115 weeks to go from November 2.
TQQQ synthetic
#SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold $TQQQ Oct 26th 60 calls for 1.40. Against my 2020 66.67 #LongLEAPs
#OT Morning / Afternoon all….
#OT Morning / Afternoon all. I am going to take some time away from active trading. Sort of a sabbatical. Maybe on the order of 3-6 months. Life’s little pleasures have been monopolizing my time of late and I am unfocused. I closed my leaps for a small profit and have a few (4) underwater positions that will need regular maintenance to get back to even. Of course the long term portfolio needs to be managed per usual. I’ll pop in from time to time and be back regularly once I get things caught up. Just to squash the fake news my wife is still here, the farm is intact though the weeds are very happily taking over, I’m not going to jail, and I’m definitely not running for public office. Though the latter two might go together. Jeff this is a gem of a community. I am so honored to be a member. Thank you all. Happy and successful trading. Later Jon
PG rated
Procter & Gamble $PG is up 7.26% today on earnings. Its prior best one-day reaction to earnings since 2001 was +4.33% back in January 2002! Best earnings reaction for PG since at least 2001 today. pic.twitter.com/yZ0Sg6GBCY
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 19, 2018
SQ synthetic
#SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold $SQ Oct 26th 80 calls for 1.25. Good premium for only one week out. It topped out at 80 last week. These are against my 2020 #LongLEAPs.
Hedging more
#VXXGame Bought to open two each of the following, giving me almost $10K in margin as they release pressure from short calls.
BTO $VXX Jan 2019 105 calls for .44
BTO $UVXY Nov 16th 112 calls for 1.25
I do think we will have at least one more drop before recovery.
#earnings #closing #shortstraddle CREE October…
#earnings #closing #shortstraddle CREE
October 15, sold a Nov. 35 straddle for 4.69, bought today for 3.32.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 26th 2820/2845 call spreads for 7.10.
These expire a week from today.
Options Bistro 