#Earnings BTC $ISRG Oct 19th 490 puts for .53. Sold the 490/565 strangles yesterday for 5.25. I’m letting the calls expire.
Recent Updates Page 287
Earnings double calendars
Here’s a quick update on my foray into using double cals to play volatility thru earnings. You know what they say. You win some. You lose some. Thanks to HON and ISRG, I won overall.:-)
AXP Sold @ .70. Bot @.73
HON Sold @ 2.37. Bot @ 1.35
ISRG Sold @ 10.84. Bot 5.27
PYPL Sold @ .55. Bot @ .80
VFC Sold @ .47. Bot @ .60
PYPL synthetic
#SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold to Open $PYPL Nov 2nd 88 calls for 1.20.
These aren’t really that covered, as I have the Jan 2019 100-strike #LongLEAPs, which are trading for about 1.00.
Also looking to sell calls in $SQ, where premium is much higher than PYPL, so I’m waiting to see if it tops out.
TQQQ
Rolled the October 26, 57 calls to November 2, 58 calls for a credit of .17 cents. I get a credit and an extra point in my strike price. These are against my 2021, 60 calls.
TRADES:
TWLO STO 10/19/18 71.0 PUTS @.90 Price now at 71.76. Wouldn’t mind being assigned.
ISRG Earnings
#Earnings Sold $ISRG Oct 19th 490/565 strangles for 5.25. My strikes are -6.7% and +7.6% OTM.
I’m skipping the $SKX straddle… I think the stock is too low already to drop far enough, and I don’t see it blasting higher in this market. Watch me be wrong in 10 minutes!
#shortstock BNS sold short 100…
#shortstock BNS EWG
sold short 100 shares of the Bank of Nova Scotia for 54.52, 2nd time in this ticker.
sold short 100 shares of a Germany ETF for 27.68
UVXY
Filled near the highs: Sold $UVXY Jan 2020 112 call for 14.50.
#VXXGame
REGN
#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Selling against ITM put spreads. Closing it now since this thing could be up 30 tomorrow….you never know.
Bought REGN OCT 19 2018 415.0 Calls @ .12 (sold for 1.65)
Sold REGN OCT 26 2018 415.0 Call @ 1.40
TNA
#LongCalls #LEAPS – I’ll be out all day tomorrow so have to take care of some of this earlier than I wanted to. But….this was still a fat finger trade on the buy. 😦 😦
Bought to Close TNA OCT 19 2018 70.0 Calls @ .63 (sold for 1.68)
Sold TNA OCT 26 2018 70.0 Calls @ 1.97
ADS
#Shortputs #IRA – Another one bouncing nicely after earnings. Got a decent fill so booking it. Plenty of cash freed up now for other opportunities…
Bought to Close ADS JAN 18 2019 180.0 Put @ 1.90 (sold for 5.30)
T
#ShortPuts #IRA – This is one I’ve been debating about. Since last two earnings haven’t gone all that great I’ve decided to book it since it’s a slightly larger position than I normally do. Maybe they can disappoint again and I can re-sell.
Bought to Close T JAN 18 2019 30.0 Put @ .53 (sold for 1.59)
PM
#ShortPuts #IRA – Nice earnings bounce running up to resistance. Gotta book it and see who the next earnings implosion will be.
Bought to Close PM DEC 21 2018 75.0 Put @ .46 (sold for 2.60)
Bought to Close PM JAN 18 2019 75.0 Put @ .72 (sold for 2.87)
TQQQ
Rolled the October 26, 65 calls to November 2, 66 calls for a credit of .16 cents. These are against my January 2021, 60 calls.
TQQQ
rolled my 66.5 calls from October 26 to November 2, 67 calls for a credit of .17 cents. I like to roll if I can get a better strike price and premium.
AXP Earnings Analysis
#Earnings $AXP reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 18, 2018 AC -2.72%
April 18, 2018 AC 7.58%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -1.83%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -0.19%
July 19, 2017 AC -0.67%
April 19, 2017 AC 5.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC -0.63%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC 9.02% (Biggest UP)
July 20, 2016 AC -1.62%
April 20, 2016 AC 0.90%
Jan. 21, 2016 AC -12.10% (Biggest DOWN)
Oct. 21, 2015 AC -5.24%
Avg + or – 4.03%
Bias -0.13%, so really no significant bias up or down.
With stock at 102.70, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 98.76 to 106.64
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 98.56 to 106.84
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 90.27 to 115.13
What are you guys doing?!…
What are you guys doing?! I go mt bike for 2 hours and the market is melting down again.
#rolling and adjusting. Everything hedged so not too bad on paper, still waiting for a ton of short options to decay but the volatility is keeping the prices up. Good for when I can roll.
/CL I had a stop loss on the strangle and it must have triggered early in the morning when oil was down 2. Lost $750 as it closed at 0.87. Re-entered 57 DTE strangle but went wider, delta 4s and sold the 55/86 strangle at 0.28.
LNG lot 1 66 cc rolled out 22 DTE for 1.25. Cb now 61.28
LNG lot 2 66 CC rolled out 22 DTE for 1.24 credit. Cb 62.39
#fuzzy
XBI 87/95 2019 LEAP rolled out to 43 DTE for 0.28 credit. Cb now 4.05.
Sitting on my hands for another 1-3 weeks, then big expirations which should free up a lot of cash. Hopefully things stay on sale:)
Hope everyone is doing well and making some $ on the volatility.
#jadelizard DOCU tastyTrade idea sold…
#jadelizard DOCU
tastyTrade idea sold Dec. 21 35/49/50 for 1.58. Short 35 put, short 49 call, long 50 call
WYNN
#LongCalls #LEAPS – I’ll wait for a confirmation of the earnings date before the next sale…
Bought to Close WYNN OCT 19 2018 123.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.07)
TRADES:
TWLO STO 10/19/18 69.0 PUTS @1.05
TWLO STO 10/19/18 72.5 CALLS @.85 Will buy stock to cover if necessary. Tanked recently.
This one goes to eleven
#LongLEAPs Bought $TQQQ Jan 2020 66.67 call for 11.00, adding to my position. I forgot to sell short-term calls on Tuesday’s rally, but that’s the plan!
TNA
#ShortPuts #IRA – Adding to a Jan ladder….
Sold TNA JAN 18 2019 55.0 Put @ 2.50
#philosophy question WYNN I am…
#philosophy question WYNN
I am wondering what the gang thinks of this situation;
August 8 I was assigned 100 shares of WYNN at 165 from a put spread. My cost basis is 141, the price of the stock is 116 right now. I’ve been selling covered calls and will be at it awhile unless..
Does it make sense to sell the shares and free up the capital? I could sell puts to work back to even, same risk profile but only need about $2,000 in margin.
Earnings are soon as is a .75 dividend so wouldn’t do anything right away.
Thanks
SKX Earnings Analysis
#Earnings $SKX reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC 7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC 41.44% (Biggest UP)
July 20, 2017 AC 0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC 19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%
April 21, 2016 AC 6.26%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC 3.93%
Oct. 22, 2015 AC -31.50% (Biggest DOWN)
Avg + or – 16.74%
Bias -3.54%, a negative bias on earnings
With stock at 26.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 22.70 to 30.30
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 22.06 to 30.94
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 15.52 to 37.48
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS – Selling shorter term calls against shorter term puts which were sold against long LEAP puts….whew! Since I’d like to see UVXY hold it’s head up as long as possible (is a year too much to ask? 🙂 ) I’ll be selling against recent highs.
Sold UVXY OCT 26 2018 60.0 Call @ 2.00
Sold UVXY NOV 16 2018 70.0 Call @ 3.40
ISRG Earnings Analysis
#Earnings $ISRG reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 19, 2018 AC -0.86%
April 17, 2018 AC 8.17% (Biggest UP)
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -2.12%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC 3.39%
July 20, 2017 AC -4.55%
April 18, 2017 AC 6.36%
Jan. 24, 2017 AC 5.09%
Oct. 18, 2016 AC -5.56% (Biggest DOWN)
July 19, 2016 AC 4.63%
April 19, 2016 AC 3.34%
Jan. 21, 2016 AC 1.89%
Oct. 20, 2015 AC 5.58%
Avg + or – 4.30%
Bias +2.11%, an upside bias on earning
With stock at 542.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 510.43 to 573.57
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 518.72 to 565.28
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 497.72 to 586.28
Ticks nix my VIX pick
#LongPuts I still got two weeks left on my long $VIX Oct 30th 16 puts. But market isn’t cooperating yet, so I want to add to the probability that I’ll catch the drop.
Bought to Open $VIX Nov 20th 16 puts for 1.10.
GPC done and done
#PreEarnings Sold to close $GPC Oct 19th 100 calls for .25. Bought for 1.28, avg price.
UVXY
#VXXGame Highest Strikes
Sold $UVXY Dec 21st 112 call for 3.10 (yesterday)
Sold $UVXY March 112 call for 5.25 (today)
BOIL adding to Jan
Sold $BOIL Jan 18 50 call @ 2.87
EWZ TUR
#ShortPuts #IRA – Nice run for both of these off their lows so freeing up some ammo and booking most of the gains early.
Bought to Close EWZ JAN 18 2019 28.0 Put @ .16 (sold for 1.87)
Bought to Close EWZ JAN 18 2019 29.0 Put @ .21 (sold for 2.24)
Bought to Close EWZ JAN 18 2019 30.0 Put @ .31 (sold for 2.10)
Bought to Close EWZ JAN 18 2019 35.0 Put @ 1.04 (sold in the money for 4.46)
Bought to Close TUR FEB 15 2019 16.0 Puts @ .20 (sold for 1.21)
TWLO Bouncing Small short 70.0…
TWLO Bouncing Small short 70.0 Puts 10/19
UVXY
#ShortCalls – If I can get that much of it in less than a week I’ll take it…
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 21 2018 95.0 Call @ 3.19 (sold for 8.25 last Thursday)
BOILing over again
#ContangoETFs
Sold $BOIL Dec 45 call for 2.45
Sold $BOIL Jan 45 for 3.80, adding to my position
#earnings #shortstrangles AA sold Nov….
#earnings #shortstrangles AA
sold Nov. 16, 32/41 strangle for 1.05
TWLO TRADE, I never traded…
TWLO TRADE, I never traded this before, and wanted to get the feel for this stock, so only did 1 contract.
TRADES:
TWLO STO 10/19/18 70.0 PUT @.84
TNDM STO 10/19/18 47.0 PUTS @.30 Have some underwater 37.0 calls, so this trade is to mitigate the calls losses.
They both can’t go under. ;>)
A Pre-earnings trade preVALEs
#PreEarnings Sold to close $VALE Oct 26th 15.5 calls for .70. This is a double-sized position, so I closed half. Leaving the other half. Avg purchase price .477.
FOMC minutes at 1pm ET / 11am PT
Could throw some volatility into the afternoon.
VALE pre-ER sold for target profit
Boom! Taking a moment for excessive celebration as this is the first pre-ER field goal of the season. lol.
Sold VALE Oct 26 16c @ .45 for target profit of 40%. Bot at avg price of .31
Getting SQ
#LongLEAPs #LongCalls
Bought to open $SQ Jan 2020 110 calls for 7.90, adding to the position I started yesterday.
Will wait to sell short term calls on rallies.
Just got a TOS Chart…
Just got a TOS Chart that is good for earnings.
http://tos.mx/GBFBbr
EOG and SHOP
#PreEarnings Following on a couple of Mama’s trades; these two symbols have been good for me lately.
Bought $EOG Nov 2nd 125 calls for .94. Earnings on Nov 1st pm
Bought $SHOP Oct 26th 150 calls for 1.90. Earnings on Oct 25th am
TQQQ
I rolled all of my January 2020, 66.67 calls out to 2021 and down to the 60 calls for a debit of 8.40 but since I am getting a lower strike of 6.67 points I am really paying 1.73 to roll out an extra year.
BABA
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Going back in for the 5th time. Been good to me so far. With earnings approaching I may be able to cover nearly 20 percent of the cost in the first two weeks. 40 percent starter size. Same as always…non ratio to start out and will roll at zero deltas. Zero deltas a second time I’ll be looking to book the quickie.
Bought BABA JAN 15 2021 150.0 Calls @ 33.25
Sold BABA OCT 26 2018 150.0 Calls @ 2.20
Closing ANET
Taking off one of my Jan positions.
Bought to close $ANET Jan 18 170 put @ 1.40. Sold for 3.20 on 10/12.
JNJ lophir closed
42% loss against max risk.
Updated from 60% to 42%. Reported inaccurately the first time.:-)
Pre-earnings layers
Adding opportunistically to BABA, EOG, LMT, SHOP, and VFC
URI earnings data
#Earnings $URI reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 18, 2018 AC 1.07%
April 18, 2018 AC -6.54%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -1.94%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC 0.05%
July 19, 2017 AC 3.23%
April 19, 2017 AC -5.19%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC 11.20%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC 4.69%
July 20, 2016 AC 9.14%
April 20, 2016 AC 7.86%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC -18.37%
Oct. 21, 2015 AC 9.97%
Avg + or – 6.60%
Bias +1.26%
With stock at 139.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 129.43 to 148.57
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 129.82 to 148.18
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 113.47 to 164.53
GUSH down
#ContangoETFs BTC $GUSH Dec 21st 57 call for .50. Sold for 5.20 on July 9th.
#shortstock KBE Sold short 100…
#shortstock KBE
Sold short 100 shares at 44.19. KBE is a regional bank ETF. There is no commission but if I don’t hold the position for 30 days I will be charged 13.90, I’m with TDA.
Closing Oct TWTR
These probably would have expired but in this market who knows what could happen in the next 3 days. Options were in the money just a few trading days ago so taking off for most of the profit a few days early.
Bought to close $TWTR Oct 19 27 puts @ .04. Sold for .61 on 9/6.
BOIL Dec
Sold $BOIL Dec 21 50 call @ 1.50. Highest strike.
NFLX call spread
Sold $NFLX Nov 16 400/410 BeCS @ 2.00
And another Boom… NFLX
#Earnings This may bode well for the market if NFLX is going to gap this high.
Correction Data
#VIXindicator Looking back at all 54 Downside Warnings gives us some data to view our current correction. Below are three charts with the Average Move down on each day of the correction. (I omitted the black swan 2008 financial crisis).
Day 1 is the day the Downside Warning fired (at the close). The percentages are how far the LOW of the day on $SPX has moved, as measured from the CLOSE of the day before the warning. So in the current correction (in color), which fired on Oct 5, the day 1 move of -1.1% is the low on Oct 5th, measured from the close on Oct 4th. Day 2 is the low on Monday the 8th, and so on.
The first chart includes all 54 corrections. The first three days include all 54, but the 4th day is an average of 53 corrections, since one was only three days long and drops off the list. This only goes to 23 days… the longest correction lasted 165 days. The data here says we are above average so far.
Considering the current correction is now 8 days long, I created the second chart, which looks at only those corrections that lasted between 9 and 19 days. The data here says we are above average for short corrections, so this one may end up being a little longer.
And the third chart is those corrections that were in the 4-8% range on days 4-7, just like our current one. This data suggests we may stay in the current range (down 5% or so) for several days to come).
Or it all may mean nothing! But it’s fun to geek out occasionally.
Boom
Panic buying into the close!
All of my long #Pre-Earnings trades (except CAT) are back on the map today, although definitely still weak. $VALE and $AMZN are best, at breakeven…. and that’s with VALE being the only underlying that is NOT up today.
SPX Chart
as expected, SPX bottomed at my Fib K level…and Bounced from there..I exited both my nov short 2650 puts a while ago, for a 50% gain, as ES put in a intraday hi…chart attached….
LAST TRADE: 3 days to expiration.
ROKU STO 10/19/18 60.0 PUTS @.68
#earnings #ironcondor NFLX Sold Nov….
#earnings #ironcondor NFLX
Sold Nov. 16, 265/270/400/405 for 1.01, it was either that or the short straddle for $4,375 heh heh
NFLX earnings play
Betting NFLX will stay between 300 and 400 after ER today.
BOT NFLX double calendar Oct19/Oct26 -342.5c/-342.5p/+342.5c/+342.5p @ 3.15
#shortputs ANET @ramie77-a good day…
#shortputs ANET
@ramie77-a good day for your ANET trades
GWW put spread
Downward momentum slowing after the big post-earnings move down this morning. Going the other way looking for more stabilization/a bounce and contracting volatility.
Sold $GWW Nov 16 250/240 BuPS @ 1.30 credit.
First time looking at the…
First time looking at the market today. That is what a short covering rally should look like 🙂
CAT scratch fever
#PreEarnings It’s feverish of me to add to such a dog, but it actually lowers my cost basis to .567, which I think gives this a good shot at breaking even. Plus, it only costs me scratch.
Bought $CAT Oct 26th 165 calls for .06, adding to my position.
#shortcalls #closing UVXY October 12,…
#shortcalls #closing UVXY
October 12, followed Jeff and sold a Jan. 95 call for 7.45, bought today on the market rally for 4.64. Thanks Jeff.
SQ long
#LongLEAPs I sold my stock and Jan 2019 60 calls on the 5th, when $SQ was at 94.50. Man, what a drop! Now looking to leg in long again.
Bought to Open $SQ Jan 2020 110 call for 7.40.
Sold $SQ Oct 26th 80 call for 1.50.
I play this one a bit differently than @fuzzballl, going fairly far OTM rather than ATM. SQ topped out at 101.15 on Oct 1st, and this LEAP was going for 19.00 and higher.
A TRADE: Earnings run?
TNDM BTO STOCK @37.96 Watched it creep up from 37.08.
TQQQ
Rolled the November 16, 75 calls down to the October 26, 57 calls for a credit of 3.45
TRADE:
ESPR BTC 10/19/18 50.0 CALLS at a small profit. Stock is up over 3 points. Didn’t roll out. Earnings next week. Something going on?
IBM earnings data
#Earnings Below are details on $IBM earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 18, 2018 AC 3.26%
April 17, 2018 AC -7.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -3.99%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC 8.86%
July 18, 2017 AC -4.20%
April 18, 2017 AC -4.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC 2.24%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC -2.61%
July 18, 2016 AC -0.17%
April 18, 2016 AC -5.59%
Jan. 19, 2016 AC -4.87%
Oct. 19, 2015 AC -5.74%
With stock at 142.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 135.23 to 148.77
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 135.61 to 148.39
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 129.42 to 154.58
NFLX earnings data
#Earnings Below are details on $NFLX earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC 9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC 9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC 13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC 3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC 19.02%
July 18, 2016 AC -13.12%
April 18, 2016 AC -12.97%
Jan. 19, 2016 AC -0.13%
Oct. 14, 2015 AC -8.29%
With stock at 333.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 299.36 to 355.64
Based on Average move over last 12 quarters: 305.38 to 360.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 269.66 to 396.34
Closing some TSLA
Bought to close:
$TSLA Nov 16 80 puts @ .44. Sold for 1.13 on 9/28.
$TSLA Nov 16 120/385 strangles @ 1.75. Sold for 3.72 on 9/28.
AMAT
#LongCalls #LEAPS – I sold this one but forgot about possible earnings. This company is pretty reliable with their dates so taking this one off and will re-sell after they announce the date.
Bought to Close AMAT NOV 16 2018 37.0 Calls @ .55 (sold for .54)
PYPL
#LongCalls #LEAPS – This one was sold in earnings week. The big drop is letting me out so taking it off with partial profit. I’ll look to possibly sell again prior to the announcement.
Bought to Close PYPL OCT 19 2018 85.0 Calls @ .32 (sold for .72)
Options Bistro 