Converted SPX Jan25 call spread to fly 2675/2680/2685 for .85 debit (net cost of .30 per lot). This locks in a loss of $360 across two accounts unless price goes above 2675 before the close.
On a positive note, I reduced risk from $5280 to $360 on 12 lots.
#spx1-dte
Recent Updates Page 285
Comments not showing?
#Welcome I usually have all comments show up automatically under Bistro posts. But occasionally they’ll stop showing and it will display “Show Comments”, and I’ll need to click that to reveal comments.
This means you need to remove website data. On a Mac with Safari:
–> navigate to Safari > Preferences >Privacy> Manage Website Data. Search for WordPress.com and then Remove. Next, search for OptionsBistro.com and Remove again.
You then may need to re-log-in to WordPress, but this should fix the issue.
Not sure how to do this on a PC, but basically you are removing cookies and website data for WordPress and OptionsBistro.
CL
closed Dbl Cal on open $0.91 cost 0.036
SPX long 1-dte, partially closed
#SPX1dte Filled on an order I put in for overnight swings.
Sold partial position, $SPX Jan 25th 2675/2695 call spreads for 1.60. Condors bought for .70 last night.
That covers cost of trade on some accounts (where I closed half) and most of the cost on other accounts (where I closed a third). Will look for a higher move to close the remainder.
Trades
#earnings
$AMD STO 2/1 20 put at 1.05
#bullputspreads
$SQ STO 2/15 65/70 BUPS at 1.20
SPX 1-dte — BUYING
#SPX1dte First time I’m altering this… SPX IV on tomorrow’s expiration is only 13% (in December, 1-day IV was between 21-33 all month). Historical Vol is running much higher than Implied Vol (daily chart), meaning options are underpriced. Daily ATR(14) is at 44.37, which is far above the 2018 average, even including Febd thru April.
On most days, my strikes will NOT be breached. But intraday swings will produce profitable exit opportunities. And on the days the strikes WILL be breached, profit can be 10x-20x, allowing me plenty of days that can result in losses. Also let’s me sleep easier knowing my losses are capped at the purchase price.
So, I’m developing a system to determine which conditions are best for switching from selling to buying. I believe the volatility levels described above are a sweet spot.
Bought to open $SPX Jan 25th 2570/2590-2675/2695 iron condors for .70.
Exit plan is to sell half (or a third) at first opportunity of swing, then hold the remainder for follow through.
#earnings #closing JPM Jan. 14…
and another
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar $CL average move 2.43%
Bought $CL Jan25/Feb01 62 double calendars for .36 (remarkable fill for such wide bid/ask spread)
Double Calendars
Bought $INTC Jan25/Feb01 50 double calendars for .54
Bought $ETFC Jan25/Feb01 50 double calendars for .52
#shortstock MO Bought to cover…
#shortstock MO
Bought to cover 100 short shares for 42.71, sold short yesterday for 44.71
#earnings #callbutterfly WDC Sold (technically…
Sold (technically bought) a Feb. 15 39/40/40/42 call butterfly for .35. This is profitable if WDC goes down. WDC hasn’t been kind to #fallingknife traders as it was a little over 100 almost a year ago, now about 40. I have 100 assigned shares at a cost basis of 68, and have a short April 55 put that has been rolled a couple times. The call butterfly will ease the pain a little if it goes down.
Thanks for the info Jeff.
Clearing the decks/resetting several accounts
Obviously what I have been doing the last 4 months has not been working. Hit all time low balance again Jan. 4 this year. So I am going back to what works and has been proven through several market cycles and rebuilding the equity curve. At least last month have recovered and higher than the Feb. 6, 2018 SVXY losses and lowest balance from then.
So I am clearing out losing trades, closing a bunch of #fuzzy, some at profit, some at loss, and re-deploying capital. My trading will mostly consist of #pietrades, #lizardpies, #spycraft and the occasional directional play/scalp and a few #fuzzy
Some closings today, but have 2 more weeks to clear out the primary account.
#fuzzy
EOG 110/110 closed for 5.16 loss per contract. It is so far ITM can’t get decent premiums anymore. My intial loss was 17 so this tactic works.
EXPE closed the back ratio credit spreads, left with 120/120 and 125/126. This is sitting on a profit and will close it over the next 2 weeks as the shorts expire. Cb 9.43 and right now can close for min. 11.45. another week of decay that will be better. Lost $600 on the credit spreads after butterflying to control risk (could have been 2000).
MU 35/35 now ITM Cb 14.80 and will roll next week.
WDC 40/40 cb 18.49 and waiting for the short to implode after earnings today.
XBI 80/80 cb 13.97
LNG 50/60 rolled 15 DTE for 0.5 credit for 13.56 cb.
GILD 67.5/69 rolled 15 DTE for 1.3 credit. Cb 7.60
#pietrades and #lizardpies
XBI 78 put 82/82.5c 8 DTE for 1.26 credit
TQQQ 50 CC rolled out 15 DTE for 0.45 credit. CB 57.56 so will manage aggressively
TQQQ 50 cc lot 2 cb 57.30 same
LNG STO the 8 DTE 63 put for 0.92. CB 62.08 if assigned. LNG is my best performer for the year so far 🙂
#spycraft
Batch 1 closed for a $214 loss after the back ratio adjustment did not work. SPY reversed.
Batch 2 closed for a $344 profit, but only because tradestation messed up and sold 20 contracts of the put side instead of 10 so even with the back ratio that did not work I made a few $. Now I am on hold in this account until tomorrow. Tradestation does not give you credit for closed trades until after midnight so I only have $614 buying power in this account until tomorrow morning. Another reason I prefer TOS over TS.
What I have learned most recently.
#fuzzy works well but I think the real value of them is to close them once you have a profit. The EOG trade would have worked if I had just closed it early. If you still like the trade, reset the strike prices. I will use these as shorter term trades out 1 week or a month, take my profit and reset. Commissions are cheap enough to do that most of the time. A 6 % return in one month and then resetting is 96% annualized. Instead of trying to take the cost basis to zero will just take profit and reset. Will probably just use a 90 day option for the long side.
#spycraft
I think the best adjustment when the short strike is challenged is to butterfly it. You can set a defined p/l by broken winging it and skewing it if you have a bias. Just to stop losing can simply butterfly it. Seems to be the cheapest way to do it and least affected if it reverses. Yes you may lock in a loss, but much better than a full loss on the credit spread.
#pietrades and #lizardpies
Upside directional bias set it up as a synthetic long.
No directional bias, set up as a straddle jade lizard.
Downside directional bias set it up as a strangle jade lizard.
But I think setting it up as a jade lizard initially gives more flexibility in managing because of the extra credit. I will be doing A LOT more of these.
Can also leg in and out depending on how the stock moves.
Pouring here so going to work out in my garage gym. First bike race is in 8 weeks so need to lose 10 pounds and make friends with my fast again 🙂
Hope everyone has a good expiration!
T Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Starter position a little early. Earnings on the morning of the 30th…
Sold T Feb 01 2019 31.0 Puts @ .79
WDC earnings analysis
#Earnings $WDC reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -18.18% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC -7.99%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC +1.82%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -2.53%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.54%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -1.93%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +5.41% Biggest UP
July 28, 2016 AC -11.52%
April 28, 2016 AC -11.28%
Jan. 28, 2016 AC +5.01%
Avg (+ or -) 7.07%
Bias -4.38%, significant negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 40.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 36.81 to 43.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 37.17 to 42.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.2%): 32.73 to 47.27
Open for requests on other symbols.
ISRG earnings analysis
#Earnings $ISRG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 18, 2018 AC -3.45%
July 19, 2018 AC -0.86%
April 17, 2018 AC +8.17% Biggest UP
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -2.12%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +3.39%
July 20, 2017 AC -4.55%
April 18, 2017 AC +6.36%
Jan. 24, 2017 AC +5.09%
Oct. 18, 2016 AC -5.56% Biggest DOWN
July 19, 2016 AC +4.63%
April 19, 2016 AC +3.34%
Jan. 21, 2016 AC +1.89%
Avg (+ or -) 4.12%
Bias 1.36%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 530.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 506.06 to 553.94
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 508.18 to 551.82
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 486.70 to 573.30
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
Sold SPX Jan25 2680/2685 call credit spread @ .30 x 12 @ 7:36 am.
Tide agreement on 5 min and 30 min. Waiting for tide reversal to sell put credit spread.
Sold SPX Jan25 2595/2590 put credit spread @ .25x 12 @ 8:25 am to complete the IC.
Breakout on 5 min chart, down signal ghosted out on 30 min chart. Not the best entry but following my rules.
With defense, trade closed for $420 loss on 12 lots. If the regular profit on one of these trades exceeds the loss on a defended trade, I’m good with that. On to the next SPX 1-dte IC.
SPX 1dte picture perfect
SPX Jan23 IC 2595/2600/2680/2685 Put/Call expired. Sold 6 lots at .45 yesterday, 4 in one account and 2 in another. After two harrowing days of defending ICs that breached or nearly breached the short side, today’s closing risk profile was gratifying.
#spx1dte
WDC
#ShortPuts
Sold WDC Feb 01 2019 33.0 Put @ 0.50
Willing to take stock if it falls that much after earnings this week.
URI Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Had pretty good luck with this one in the past. Just selling a put out in Feb monthly so not technically an earnings play but should have some volatility crush in the monthlies. Wouldn’t mind owning a little…
Sold URI Feb 15 2019 105.0 Put @ 2.30
STX
#CoveredCalls – Full position now sold in earnings week…
Sold STX Feb 08 2019 41.0 Call Limit @ 1.11
#shortstock MO Back in ,…
#shortstock MO
Back in , sold short 100 shares at 44.71, left too early the other day.
A TRADE:
HIIQ STO 2/15/19 31.0 PUTS @1.10
TQQQ
STO January 2021, 65 calls against my 2021 60 calls. The 65 calls were sold at 6.27 average price. Yesterday I bought the TQQQ stock at 43.25 to cover the 55 calls that I sold previously at 6.05
TQQQ
#CoveredCalls – Sold TQQQ Mar 15 2019 50.0 Calls @ 1.15
TNA
#CoveredCalls – Sold TNA Feb 15 2019 58.0 Calls @ 1.02
LABU
#CoveredCalls – Sold LABU Feb 15 2019 49.0 Call @ 1.96
#earnings LRCX Sold Feb. 15,…
#earnings LRCX
Sold Feb. 15, 120/160 strangle for 1.78. I would do something similar with XLNX but the last 2 reports, up 9.5 and 15% concern me.
Thanks for the data Jeff.
TRADES:
ROKU STO 1/25/19 CALLS @.60
AMD STO 2/1/19 18.0 PUTS @.52
SFIX STO 1/25/19 22.0 PUTS @.60 ITM
AMD STO 1/25/19 20.0 PUTS @.61 ITM
Closing NFLX short calls
Bought to close $NFLX Feb 15 385 calls @ .50. Sold for 2.60 on 1/18.
LRCX earnings analysis
#Earnings $LRCX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +1.31%
July 26, 2018 AC +7.19% Biggest UP
April 17, 2018 AC -4.03%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -4.99% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +3.05%
July 26, 2017 AC -2.12%
April 18, 2017 AC +6.85%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -2.21%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC -2.78%
July 27, 2016 AC +1.21%
April 20, 2016 AC -2.23%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC +2.88%
Avg (+ or -) 3.40%
Bias 0.34%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 138.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 130.44 to 145.56
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 133.30 to 142.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.2%): 128.08 to 147.92
Open for requests on other symbols.
XLNX earnings analysis
#Earnings $XLNX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +15.00% Biggest UP
July 25, 2018 AC +9.59%
April 25, 2018 AC +1.69%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.08%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC -0.12%
July 26, 2017 AC -2.26%
April 26, 2017 AC +7.35%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -3.67%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +0.96%
July 27, 2016 AC +2.50%
April 27, 2016 AC -8.70% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 20, 2016 AC +8.58%
Avg (+ or -) 5.46%
Bias 2.15%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 88.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 82.47 to 94.53
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 83.67 to 93.33
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.0%): 75.23 to 101.78
Open for requests on other symbols.
#earnings Jeff do you have…
#earnings
Jeff do you have data on a couple symbols I don’t think anyone here has reported trading-LRCX and XLNX? Thank you again.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Upside stop level was hit early, but now pulling back sharply.
Closed the short puts for .05. Looking to close short calls for best price I can get.
Trade sold yesterday for .95: $SPX Jan 23rd 2555/2575-2665/2685
SPY 21dte ladder
Sold SPY Feb13 IC 274/276/251/249 CALL/PUT @.49.
With SPX caught between support and resistance and volatility a little elevated, I added a layer to my ladder. Not a Tide trade.
#spycraft
FFIV earnings analysis
#Earnings $FFIV reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.10%
July 25, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 25, 2018 AC +0.89%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.05%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +3.97%
July 26, 2017 AC -7.16%
April 26, 2017 AC -7.50%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -8.25% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +9.57% Biggest UP
July 20, 2016 AC +0.32%
April 20, 2016 AC +5.53%
Jan. 20, 2016 AC -0.56%
Avg (+ or -) 4.66%
Bias -0.09%, no significant positive or negative bias.
With stock at 159.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 149.10 to 168.90
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 151.58 to 166.42
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 143.78 to 174.22
Open for requests on other symbols.
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Busy week away from the market but managed one fill today…
Sold UVXY FEB 1 2019 72.5/82.5 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.37
For some reason the reply…
For some reason the reply button is not working for me at the moment.
Adding to @jeffcp66 and @kathycon discussion below on SPX/SPY/ES credit spreads below, the idea is to get a directional kick if the short strike is violated. Sometimes it works and you get a good profit spike. From what I did with #spycraft the other day, not looking so good today but I did not have time to adjust. Hoping for a snap back rally tomorrow.
The way I see it there are 3-5 adjustments that may work most of the time, none are going to work all the time.
1. delta neutral buy back half of your short strikes. Works great if it keeps moving, not so much if it reverses like it has for me.
2. delta neutral, buy some options between your strikes. Same as above but probably a little cheaper and the same problems as above.
3. just closing it down at a certain loss level or closing it early. You could also roll out and up/down but may be hard to get credits if it has already moved that much.
4. butterfly, either BW or regular. This is probably the cheapest and can be skewed but then will have loss on one side, but fixed gain or loss on the other. At least you stop the bleeding at that point and lock in your gain/loss.
5. convert the short side to a calendar or diagonal like a #fuzzy and then manage from there but then you may be in a position a lot longer than you want.
Final decision up to you but I am going to keep experimenting with all 5 options to see if there is one that always works the best. Like @kathycon I think the butterfly will be the most efficient. Once on you can leave it alone and let it expire. Everything would cancel out.
SPX 1dte fly defense worked
Closed my SPX Jan22 2620/2625/2630 put flies (defense position from IC) one account for $1240 profit and the other for $600 profit. I was tempted to hold for a pin at 2625 but decided some profit is better than no profit so I TTMAR. I’ve learned a lot from Deal or No Deal. lol.
The call side of the IC will close for full profit of $600. Was a good day. I owe @hcgdavis for suggesting flies for defense. They will be my “go to” defense on the credit spreads that are near expiration.
#spx1dte
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 23rd 2575/2555 put spreads for .55. Looking to add the call spread on any bounce; hopefully before 3pm ET.
WYNN earnings analysis
#Earnings Who knows when $WYNN will report? Estimates range from tonight until the 28th. IV on TOS shows it could be this week or next. As you can see from the past dates, they tend to announce in different weeks every quarter.
Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC +1.77%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC +15.83% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 7.14%
Bias -0.46%, no significant positive or negative bias, just tends to move.
With stock at 111.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 105.24 to 116.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 103.07 to 118.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.8%): 93.43 to 128.57
Open for requests on other symbols.
T time
#PieTrades #ShortPuts Sold to Open $T April 31 puts for 1.60.
Replicating my Oct 24th-Jan 18th successful trade. This time it is Jan 22nd to April 18th.
Assignment would be fine on a high-div tock, becomes a PieTrade with covered calls.
#earnings #shortstrangles IBM Sold Feb….
Sold Feb. 15, 105/135 strangle for .90.
#earnings Jeff-can you show earnings…
Jeff-can you show earnings data for WYNN-thanks
#earnings #closing UAL January 15,…
SPX 1dte
#spx1dte Sold SPX Jan23 2600/2595 put credit spread (pcs) @ .25 x 6, four in one account and two in the other. Looking for an opportunity to sell a call credit spread (ccs)
Sold SPX Jan23 2685/2690 ccs @ .20 x6 to complete ICs in both accounts based on break below low of day.
SOME TRADES: Moth to the flame. ;>)
HIIQ BTO STOCK @34.5
SFIX BTO STOCK @22.10
CRON BTO STOCK @15.40
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jan 22nd 2630/2610 put spreads for 1.20. Condor sold for .95 on Friday. Suffered from poor entry in the last hour on Friday, so my put spread was simply too high to survive this minor (so far) pullback. I’ll be looking to enter these earlier in the day.
Hello VXXB
#VXXGame #LongLEAPs
Bought to open $VXXB Jan 2020 20 puts for 1.75.
A starter position for a 12-month trade. My bigger target will be the 2021 LEAPs, which are still pretty expensive, but should lower in value by late summer, provided we don’t enter a bear market. I may also look at ATM puts and sell puts against them, but this OTM position is meant to be a cheaper play that stands alone without cost reduction.
IBM earnings analysis
#Earnings $IBM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings THREE-DAY moves over the last 12 quarters.
(I used 3-day moves since Friday is 4 days away, and the 3-day range is higher than the 1-day).
Tue 10/16/2018 AC -11.04%
Wed 07/18/2018 AC +1.27%
Tue 04/17/2018 AC -9.95%
Thu 01/18/2018 AC -3.99%
Tue 10/17/2017 AC +10.60%
Tue 07/18/2017 AC -4.49%
Tue 04/18/2017 AC -5.68%
Thu 01/19/2017 AC +2.24%
Mon 10/17/2016 AC -2.09%
Mon 07/18/2016 AC +0.36%
Mon 04/18/2016 AC -2.11%
Tue 01/19/2016 AC -4.37%
Avg (+ or -) 4.85%
Bias -2.44%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 123.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 116.94 to 130.06
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 117.51 to 129.49
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 109.87 to 137.13
Open for requests on other symbols.
Expiration
Only one today. TQQQ January 18, 50/55 call spread which is against my leaps position in 2021.
Options Expiration for 1/18
Was able to leave a few to expire. Will look to reinitiate some positions next week.
Expiring:
$AAPL Jan 18 155/145 bull put spread
$AAPL Jan 18 155/150 bull put spread
$AMAT Jan 18 35 puts
$AMZN Jan 18 1400/1390 bull put spread
$AMZN Jan 18 1485/1480 bull put spread
$AMZN Jan 18 1535/1525 bull put spread
$BA Jan 18 295/290 bull put spread
$BOIL Jan 18 45 calls
$GWW Jan 18 280/270 bull put spread
$RIG Jan 18 16 calls (covered)
$SMH Jan 18 78/84/98/104 iron condor
$STX Jan 18 37 puts
$UVXY Jan 18 65/75 bear call spread
$UVXY Jan 18 65/70 bear call spread
$UVXY Jan 18 75/80 bear call spread
$UVXY2 (pre-1:5 split) 15/25 bear call spread
$VXX Jan 18 long 20 puts (full loss)
$WYNN Jan 18 100 puts
$MCD Jan 18 170/175/182.50/187.50 iron condor–should have expired but I got too cute and didn’t close out the short call side and it finished .07 in the money. So I’ll have to deal with a buy in from assignment on Tuesday morning.
Have a great weekend everyone.
Closing TQQQ
Options ITM so closing for a profit to avoid assignment.
Bought to close $TQQQ Jan 18 45 put @ .45. Sold for 2.15 on 9/5.
SPX 1-dte, legging in
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 22nd 2715/2735 call spreads for .45. Legging in as I see us going lower into the close. Will sell puts soon.
SSO TNA TQQQ UPRO collars
After several months of selling weekly calls, buying puts, put spreads, and put flies, I’m in the green on SSO and UPRO. TNA and TQQQ are not far behind after being deeply in the red at Christmas.
STX
STO Feb 15 2019 37.50 P @ 1.15
After earnings, would be glad to take the stock down there and then write calls and take dividends.
It’s been quite a while since I’ve posted anything as I needed to take a complete break from options as I was trading too much for me. Glad to see some new names and “faces” and ideas.
UVXY hedge
#VXXGame Bought to Open $UVXY Feb 15th 100 calls for .36. I want to have room to sell premium if we get another market pull back. If we don’t, then small loss. (these reached a peak of 13.00 in late December)
AAOI LABU MO STX TNA TQQQ UVXY
#CoveredCalls #ShortPuts #LongPuts #LEAPS – Various adjustments…
AAOI: Feels like a family member now…LOL Replacing this week’s expiration
Sold AAOI FEB 15 2019 17.5/22.5 Bear Call Spreads @ .46 (prior to earnings hopefully)
LABU:
Will be assigned stock at 56.60 basis
MO: LEAPS are now unhedged leading into earnings…(for now)
Bought to Close MO JAN 25 2019 50.5 Calls @ .02 (sold for .25)
STX:
Will be assigned a little more stock at 40.20 basis
TNA: Rolling covered calls and assignment
Rolled TNA Jan 18 2019 50.0 Call to Feb 22 2019 52.5 Call @ .01 credit
Will be assigned stock at basis of 62.70, 56.95, and 56.00
TQQQ: Booking covered calls. No new sales yet. (partial fill on this yesterday at .05 Grrrr!)
Bought to Close TQQQ Jan 18 2019 45.0 Calls @.40 (sold for 1.65)
Still watching a short 45.0 strike put. If assigned basis of 42.85
UVXY: Rolling ratio’d short puts down.
Rolled UVXY FEB 1 2019 72.5 Puts to MAR 15 2019 69.0 Puts @ .62 credit
Closing AMAT
To avoid possible assignment today with the options currently in the money.
Bought to close AMAT Jan 18 36 puts @ .24. Sold for 1.30 on 9/7.
MS calendar loses
#Earnings #Double Calendar Sold to close remaining parts of $MS Jan18/Jan25 45 double calendar for .131. Bought for .33 on Wednesday, plus paid .03 to close short calls yesterday.
So one small loss and a breakeven on this strategy so far. Oddly enough, the better play for neutral option strategies this week was NFLX. It’s upside world.
Econ Calendar for week of 1/21/19
Markets closed Monday for Martin Luther King holiday.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=21&month=1&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#spycraft Closed 5 of the…
Closed 5 of the 10 short 266 calls for the Feb 1 expiration for 3.49. The new Tradestation screens apparently put my orders in last week twice, so I ended up with 20 contracts instead of 10 on the put side. It is doing well so will leave them but I don’t have the margin for the ladder now. So anyway, sitting on my hands on this one until next week.
Once I can close the put side will re-ladder.
However, I don’t really see any reason to sell the call side at the moment so will just open the put side and leg into the call side later. If you are going to iron condor I would skew to the upside a lot. Looks like there is panic buying now.
So now have 20 contracts of the 245/242 puts, 5 of the 266 and 10 of the 269 call side. Keep on rallying. Cost 3.49.
I also adjusted the other account. It is now the 242.5/240.5 put spread 5 of these and 3 of the 268/ and 5 of the 270. Cost 2.38 to close these.
I figure if we can keep rallying will be a winner. If not can resell on the pull back.
Ladder on 1 account STO the Feb 8 255/252 put spread for 0.21. 10 contracts
No point in adding the call side until we have 2 sided action again.
TOS question
When I closed down the application, it says “saving configuration.” How do I save configuration without closing the application?
SPY 21dte IC ladders
Call rolls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Rolled $SQ Jan 18th 66 calls to Feb 1st 67 calls for .25 credit.
Rolled $TQQQ Jan 18th 42.5 calls to Feb 1st 43.5 calls for .25 credit.
#earnings Z Way back on…
#earnings Z
Way back on Oct. 1, sold a Nov. 35/50 earnings strangle. Z had a record move down. I rolled the put to December and sold a 35 call to make a straddle. Z went back up and I ended up with an ITM 35 call that was rolled to today. It will expire and I will make .80, that is 80 cents after commissions. Time for a Little Debbie at the gas station.
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPX1dte Upside stop was hit, so…
Bought to close $SPX Jan 18th 2680/2700 call spreads for .85. Puts will expire. Iron condors sold yesterday for .80, so I lost .05 and commissions. Will sell another for Tuesday expiration.
Looks like I picked the wrong year to…
#VXXGame #LongLEAPs Over the years I put a lot of research into the idea of buying long $VXX LEAP puts, since the symbol is dragged toward zero over time. I built an extensive spreadsheet showing how this strategy would have worked with every VIX leap expiration since 2006 except Jan 2009, during the financial crisis. (VXX was created in 2009, but there are models available of how it would have performed going back to 2004).
Other than Jan 2009, the 18-month to 24-month decline in $VXX is usually 60-90%; even as much as 97% down over 24 months.
So when I started buying the Jan 2019 VXX 20 puts on September 5th, 2017, the odds looked pretty good for a decent profit. I started scaling in and ended up with a total of 32 puts over multiple accounts, average price 1.603. I also sold some 50/60 call spreads against it, lowering that cost basis down to about 1.20.
But, guess what? Picked the wrong year! This is the first LEAP expiration since 2009 where this strategy did not work. And now $VXX is going away at the end of this month, replaced by $VXXB, which doesn’t have much volume yet. However, they HAVE finally added LEAPs, so I’ll be looking to start buying.
Also, because of the product termination, I closed my final short shares in $VXX today for 37.25. I was assigned 100 shares short for 27.00, and had managed to scale out of 30 of them when we dipped below 27.00 in September. Then, October happened.
#closing #assignment WYNN I was…
#closing #assignment WYNN
I was assigned this week on WYNN, after selling a Jan. 18, 113 call and selling the long put my cost basis was 115.
WYNN has pushed above 115, I closed the position to avoid assignment costs, didn’t want to roll with earnings next week, have another 100 shares assigned at a higher cost basis, WYNN is a big mover, out with a loss of just under $200.
Sensitive
#Market is way too reactionary to anything “tariffs.”
BREAKING: Stocks rise to session high as report says China to offer path to eliminate trade imbalance with UShttps://t.co/Nfcv5j71T9
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) January 18, 2019
#shortcallspreads TSLA Jan. 15 sold…
#shortcallspreads TSLA
Jan. 15 sold Feb. 1, 385/390 call spread for .81, bought today for .15
$T puts closed
#PieTrades #ShortPuts Well, was planning to let this expire or take assignment, but I forgot I had entered a GTC order weeks ago. So it just filled.
Bought to close $T Jan 18th 31 puts for .15. Sold for 1.37 on Oct 24th. Following @fuzzballl on this, but I’ll do the same thing again, sell ATM puts a couple months out, and if assigned take the stock (and dividend) and sell covered calls.
OKTA
This is breaking out to a new high so I sold the May 75 puts at 7.82 and bought a May 75/90 Bull call spread for 6.05, just following the charts.
SPX 1dte IC
#spx1dte Sold SPX Jan22 2695/2700 call credit spread @ .25 x12, 8 in one account and 4 in the other.
Sold SPX Jan22 2625/2620 pcs @ .25 x12 to complete my IC. One could say I waited too long. 🙂
Bot back 50% of 2625 short puts @ 1.35 on Tues, Jan 22 to defend this IC.
NFLX short calls
Sold $NFLX Feb 15 385 calls @ 2.60. I am long the stock, so no buying power reduction.
SPX 1dte IC closed
Out of my SPX 1dte IC from yesterday. Flat in one account. Lost $750 in the bigger account. Without defense, the losses would have been $1900 and $4050 so I’m ok with that.
