#LongCalls #LEAPS – Last one today. Hauling a load of Vegas winners back to Miami today…LOL
Sold XBI NOV 16 2018 85.0/90.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .48
Stay green!
Recent Updates Page 284
BIDU earnings trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $BIDU 155/205 strangles for 1.75.
In smaller accounts, sold 150/155/205/210 condors for .70.
Strikes -14.4% and +13.3% OTM
I went father out than max moves, since premium was there and market in volatile.
FB DubCal
Bot FB Nov2/Nov9 144 double calendar @ 1.51. EM 12.
Profit tent allowing for 20-point move. Vol collapse will favor profit if FB stays within EM.
BIDU earnings
#Earnings – Selling a #JadeLizard based on Jeff’s data of average move on earnings. No upside risk and I’ll just manage the put on an implosion.
Sold 1 BIDU NOV 2 2018 167.5/190.0/192.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.55
Another short
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 31st 2675/2700 call spreads for 8.00. This is on a short leash and probably close out at end of today. 1 DTE and not far OTM.
UVXY
ANTM earnings trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $ANTM Nov 2nd 242.5/247.5/277.5/282.5 iron condors for 1.10.
$ANTM reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 25, 2018 BO 0.75%
April 25, 2018 BO 6.15% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2018 BO 1.81%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO 5.35%
July 26, 2017 BO -2.93%
April 26, 2017 BO 3.80%
Feb. 1, 2017 BO 4.31%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO 4.74%
July 27, 2016 BO -2.71%
April 27, 2016 BO -1.57%
Jan. 27, 2016 BO -4.74% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 28, 2015 BO -1.99%
Avg + or – 3.40%
Bias 1.08%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 264.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 252.40 to 275.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 255.01 to 272.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.2%): 247.76 to 290.24
Open for requests on other symbols.
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS – Giving this it’s own post since I’m so excited about the potential of this trade. Of course that worries me… 🙂 🙂 In two accounts now…
Added:
Bought to Open UVXY JAN 15 2021 50.0 Puts @ 27.00
Sold UVXY NOV 16 2018 52.0 Puts @ 1.40
This week’s put sales look safe so double selling for next week:
Sold UVXY NOV 9 2018 56.0 Puts @ 1.20
EWZ RTN TLT TQQQ
#LongCalls #LongPuts #LEAPS – Summary of a busy morning. Leaving before the close so getting done early.
EWZ: Trying to get my .36 loss back from the closed position yesterday. Stand alone trade out of spite…LOL
Sold EWZ NOV 16 2018 37.0/35.0 Bull Put Spreads @ .26
RTN: Bunch of call spreads nearly worthless so adding another. Just going for slightly more than required breakeven.
Sold RTN NOV 16 2018 185.0/195.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .32
TLT: Adding to the #PerpetualRollingStrangles position. Stop set on last batch.
Sold TLT NOV 23 2018 117.0 Calls @ .34
TQQQ:
Sold TQQQ NOV 16 2018 55.0/60.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .77 credit
TRADE:
SFIX STO 11/2/18 22.0 PUTS @.60 Will accept stock if assigned.
WYNN earnings
#Earnings confirmed Nov 7th after the close…
FB earnings analysis
#Earnings $FB reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC 9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC 3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC 2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -5.63%
July 27, 2016 AC 1.34%
April 27, 2016 AC 7.19%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC 15.52% Biggest UP
Nov. 4, 2015 AC 4.63%
Avg + or – 6.08%
Bias 1.24%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 142.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 129.24 to 154.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 133.36 to 150.64
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 115.08 to 168.92
Open for requests on other symbols.
FEYE earnings analysis
by request of @thomberg1201
#Earnings $FEYE reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -1.91%
May 2, 2018 AC -9.70%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC 9.34%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -10.32%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC 0.74%
May 2, 2017 AC 12.85% Biggest UP
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -15.72%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC 12.07%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -12.05%
May 5, 2016 AC -19.02%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -3.30%
Nov. 4, 2015 AC -22.87% Biggest DOWN
Avg + or – 10.82%
Bias -4.99%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 16.20, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 14.12 to 18.28
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 14.45 to 17.95
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.9%): 12.50 to 19.90
Open for requests on other symbols.
DG
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Another long running position that was sort of a trade repair. When I rolled the LEAPS to 2021 I also cut the size in half figuring I’d have plenty of time to make up the difference. The stock has held up great and with a few weekly sales I’m able to make an adjustment and bring a ton of cash back into the account. Closing the LEAPS at breakeven and rolling the slightly ITM calls into strangles.
Sold to Close DG JAN 15 2021 110.0 Calls
Rolled DG NOV 2 2018 108.0 Calls to NOV 16 2018 107.0/113.0 Strangles @ .15 credit.
This was the plan all along with the reduction in size of the roll to 2021. If I could get the LEAPS to even then the size would be small enough I could strangle the weekly calls if needed.
Once the strangles go away (hopefully) the overall thing will be a small net winner. A lot of hassle but was a sizable loser at the beginning.
🙂 🙂
TNA
#ShortPuts #IRA – Adding one more…trying to get some stock for the longer term.
Sold TNA NOV 16 2018 55.0 Put @ 2.95
BIDU earnings analysis
#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC 5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC 4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 AC 9.45%
April 27, 2017 AC -4.06%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -5.12%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC 2.56%
July 28, 2016 AC -3.64%
April 28, 2016 AC 4.45%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC 9.84% Biggest UP
Oct. 29, 2015 AC 10.93%
Avg + or – 6.34%
Bias 1.55%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 180.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 163.68 to 196.32
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 168.60 to 191.40
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.9%): 160.33 to 199.67
Expected move is close to Max moves. May be good for a strangle or condor. But it’s only Tuesday, and in this market, serious decay may not kick in until later in the week.
Open for requests on other symbols.
Futures sinking
Tech leading the way, AMZN below 1500. It’s lost a fourth of its value from the highs.
AMAT AMBA EWW EWZ LABU PYPL UVXY
#LongCalls #LongPuts #LEAPS – Was out most of the day but did get in just in time to get a few sales off. Morning would’ve been better but the volatility is helping premium across the board so still sold a little. Biggest change is closing a couple of the long term positions that were near breakeven (AMBA and EWZ) and moving some of that cash to UVXY and possibly adding to TNA and TQQQ.
AMAT: Waiting for earnings date confirmation before selling anymore.
Bought to Close AMAT NOV 2 2018 36.0 Calls @ .02 (sold for .38)
AMBA: Closed for small loss. Happy with it since stock moved against me from day one. Another 2020 position closed and looking to add to some 2021’s that are beaten down.
Bought to Close AMBA NOV 2 2018 38.0 Calls
Bought to Close AMBA NOV 9 2018 36.0 Calls
Sold to Close AMBA JAN 17 2020 50.0 Calls
Net loss of .21 on a 10 lot…
EWW: Overlapping sales since this week’s 48’s look safe.
Sold EWW NOV 16 2018 45.0 Calls @ .41
EWZ: Closing it on the bounce to free up cash to add to UVXY. Small loss but a successful long term repair trade.
Bought to Close EWZ NOV 9 2018 35.5 Calls (ratio’d)
Sold to Close EWZ JAN 15 2021 40.0 Calls
Net loss of .36 on a 10 lot…
LABU: Selling spreads very cautiously down here. Short next week’s 70/80 also.
Sold LABU NOV 16 2018 65.0/75.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .50
PYPL:
Bought to Close PYPL NOV 2 2018 89.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .60)
Sold PYPL NOV 9 2018 86.0 Calls @ .54
UVXY: Added to the long LEAP puts and sold puts against them. Still short a few calls as well.
Bought to Open UVXY JAN 15 2021 50.0 Puts @ 26.75
Sold UVXY NOV 9 2018 56.0 Puts @ 1.25
High volume plunge, higher volume bounce at 3:45
UVXY pulling back 4 points in the last 10 minutes. FANG stocks well off their lows.
#shortstock XLF #shortcallspreads QQQ #longputspread…
#shortstock XLF #shortcallspreads QQQ #longputspread SPY
XLF Sold 100 shares short at 25.37
QQQ Sold Nov. 16, 170/175 for 1.03
SPY bought Nov. 14 250/260 for 2.00
TQQQ calls
#SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $TQQQ Nov 2 58 calls for .12. Sold for 1.20 on Thursday. Looks like I’ll be adding to my #LongLEAPs this week.
TRADE: BAD TRADE
AMZN BTC 1480/1490 BuPS ;>(
TRADES:
AMD STO 11/2/18 19.0 CALLS @.20 Delta .23
TWLO STO 11/2/18 62.0 PUTS @.60 Delta .16
TWLO STO 11/2/18 71.0 CALLS @1.00 Delta .31
AMZN BuPS 11/2/18 1490/1480 PUTS @2.00
PYPL and SOXL
#SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $PYPL Nov 2nd 88 calls for .11. Sold for 1.20 on Oct 19th.
#ContagoETFs BTC $SOXL Dec 85 put for 9.00.
#Rolling Sold $SOXL May 65 put for 9.25
Failing again
#SPXcampaign I was looking for a higher move before we topped, so I didn’t get these trades off in time. I managed to close one of my SPX spreads for 3.20, just above break-even, which gave me the heads up to start looking for a full exit. But that turned out to be the top so far. Maybe we’ll bounce at flat, and then I’ll be sad about these trades. But overall, I’m looking for a test of Feb lows before we get out of this mess.
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 2 2725/2750 call spreads for 5.55.
Sold to close $SPX Oct 31st 2750/2775 call spreads for .90. Bought for 3.10 on Friday.
Still holding a way OTM long put spread expiring the 9th. Will hold it for a deep plunge.
Red Hat turning blue
Not much left here after the IBM takeover announcement.
Bought to close $RHT Dec 21 100 puts @ .10. Sold for 1.10 on 6/22.
CTSH calendar?
CMI earnings analysis
#Earnings $CMI reports in the morning before the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 31, 2018 BO 4.08%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.11%
Feb. 6, 2018 BO -2.33%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -1.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.64%
May 2, 2017 BO 6.09%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO 3.06%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO -4.32%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO -0.62%
May 3, 2016 BO 1.77%
Feb. 4, 2016 BO 7.62% Biggest UP
Oct. 27, 2015 BO -8.69% Biggest DOWN
Avg + or – 4.19%
Bias -0.42%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 133.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 125.81 to 141.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 127.91 to 139.09
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.7%): 121.90 to 145.10
Open for requests on other symbols.
Closing GUSH
I am now completely out of this one.
Bought to close:
$GUSH Dec 21 46 calls @ .20. Sold for 4.00, 5.00 and 6.00 on 4/24, 5/8 and 5/9.
WTW….trimming the fat (basis)
WTW Anatomy of a Trade
This is why I love option trading. Nothing is cut and dry and loss isn’t a loss until it’s realized. This was the path I took from an 80 basis to 58 in 3 months. All the calls were carefully sold at levels around the current basis to protect from losses in the event of a huge whipsaw (or buyout). 🙂 🙂
Aug 6: Jade Lizard blown out to the put side on the implosion
Aug 7: Immediately sold additional weekly calls at the open
Aug 8: Sold more weekly calls against the Lizard puts
Aug 9: Sold atm calls in anticipation of weekend put assignment
Aug 11: Assigned stock over the weekend
Aug 17: Sold fairly safe calls as an oversale against the stock
Aug 30: Rolled covered calls down and out staying atm
Sep 5: Sold calls slightly itm
Sep 21: Rolled calls again staying itm
Oct 5: Rolled calls again staying itm
Oct 10: Another atm call sale
Oct 26: Rolled calls down and ditm for max earnings protection
Still rolling along. Hoping for one more drop on earnings to around 58. That would complete a huge topping pattern. Bounce there or drop to 40 after that. We shall see. Thanks Sue for the nice comments down below. Coming from a seasoned trader it’s very encouraging!
TSLA strangle
#ShortStrangles Now that this one is volatile again, premium is jacked.
Sold to Open $TSLA Nov 2nd 290/350 strangles for 6.50.
amzn
STO November 2, 1475/1500 bull put spread @ 2.25 adding to my position.
T2108 low
Was 7.53 this morning around 11:00 am. Looks like that will be it for the day.
#longputspread STC SPX 2675/2680 Oct…
STC SPX 2675/2680 Oct 26 for $3.60, bot for $1.80 before 1 PM today. I see I could have collected more but couldn’t watch as needed. I’m happy with this.
Next I may be able to buy back my NUGT shorted with a 13.50 call. Eventually it looks like a winner after looking very bad as prices reached $17 earlier this week. It was exercised 2 weeks ago.
UVXY STO UVXY Dec21’18 122…
UVXY
STO UVXY Dec21’18 122 CALL 5.00
WTW
#CoveredCalls – Sure didn’t think I’d still be in this since last earnings. Started out as a blown out strangle and the stock has lost 30 percent since last quarter. Through extremely aggressive call selling (double selling and selling in the money) I’ve managed to stay in the game. Started at around an 80 basis and currently sitting at 66.16.
Next week it’s earnings time again and I’m still being cautious. Selling in the money at a level that will give nice downside protection while still allowing the stock to get called away with a small profit.
Rolled WTW OCT 26 2018 65.0 Calls to NOV 2 2018 58.0 Calls @ 8.85 credit
New basis is now 57.31 covered at 58.0. Estimated move on earnings of about 10 dollars. I don’t quite have all that covered to the downside but got most of it. If the stock gets that low I may back off on the aggressive call selling and keep longer term for a turnaround.
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS – Selling calls and puts against a long put LEAP position. Selling less calls and scattering them out for extra safety. Rolling this week’s and holding short 70 strike the next two weeks. Will continue pounding the weekly put sales as long as I can.
Rolled UVXY OCT 26 2018 60.0 Call to NOV 23 2018 75.0 Call @ .57 credit (2.57 total credit now)
SPX
STO SPX BeCS 2750/2745 10/29/2018 @0.35
SPX longs
#SPXcampaign I bought longs in both directions, because I have no idea which way we’ll head in short term, but I think we’ll be moving strongly in both directions over the next few days. The dates and strikes are sort of randomly chosen near the 3.00 price .
Bought $SPX Oct 31st 2750/2775 call spreads for 3.10.
Bought $SPX Nov 9th 2500/2475 put spreads for 2.70.
Econ Calendar for week of 10/29/18
Be sure to periodically click Home/REFRESH to keep Bistro features updated.
October #Jobs report is Friday, Nov 2nd, 8:30am ET
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us
AMZN is trying
If we remain bullish today, $AMZN could end up in the #IronButterfly profit range of 1715 to 1765. Fingers crossed.
TQQQ
Taking the opportunity to roll from November 9, 58.5 calls to November 16, 59 calls for a credit of .18 cents. If I can do this for the next 61 weeks I will be happy.
WDC
More like a falling hindenberg than a falling knife. Actually at this level not a bad dividend. I am working on rolling the #fuzzy down but don’t have time to update at the moment.
Hope everyone has a good weekend.
Market Crash
Stock Market Crash of 1929 or the Great Crash, is the stock market crash that occurred in late October, 1929. It started on October 24 (“Black Thursday”) and continued until October 29, 1929 (“Black Tuesday”), when share prices on the New York Stock Exchange collapsed… the dates of the events are a little scary
SPX spreads closed
#SPXcampaign Although I feel there are still drops aheads today, I don’t want these spreads to turn into loses. Small loss on today’s but better win on the one i sold yesterday.
BTC $SPX Oct 29th 2700/2725 call spreads for 5.00. Sold an 90 minutes ago for 4.45.
BTC $SPX Nov 2 2760/2785 call spreads for 3.30. Sold yesterday for 6.25.
I may enter again if we hit resistance.
UVXY strikes added
#VXXGame I may be late on this, but since I don’t remember seeing it posted:
Strikes added in $UVXY up to 122 in all expiries except Jan 2020, which is 120.
Also, June is now available.
New highs today. Rolling my lowest strikes, the Jan ’19 70 calls.
REGN
#ShortCalls – Selling against Jan 2021 in the money put spreads to reduce basis. Replacing this week’s expiration.
Sold REGN NOV 2 2018 365.0 Call @ 1.25
T2108
Now at 9.33
AMZN
#Earnings – Doesn’t look like a big bounce is coming so closing the put side of the iron fly at less than max loss and saving the exercise fees. Big wide iron condor sold separately will cover the loss on the fly (maybe even a net small winner). Wild earnings week that was overall green but not sure if it was worth it…LOL
Bought to Close 1750/1720 BuPS @ 29.58 (saved .42)
#shortstock RSX Oct. 10, sold…
#shortstock RSX
Oct. 10, sold short 100 shares of the Russian ETF for 20.65, bought to cover today for 20.12. Still need more weakness in Denny’s, strength in everything else.
A TRADE: Doing what I know.
TWLO STO 11/2/18 70.0 CALLS @1.13 Naked for now.
TWLO
#ShortStrangles – Obviously not decaying as quickly as I’d hoped. Earnings in a couple weeks so I’ll look at it again there. Taking this one for a small winner…
Bought to Close TWLO NOV 2 2018 60.0/80.0 Strangles @ 1.49 (sold for 2.06)
SPX breaks open low
#SPXcampaign
BTC $SPX Oct 26th 2625/2600 put spreads for 4.30. Sold yesterday for 2.20. Missed my fill on the order to close yesterday.
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 29th 2700/2725 call spreads for 4.45. Probably close this today.
Bye bye DubCal flock
EXPE STC @ 1.90 x2, BTO avg price @ 1.11 (win)
CMG STC @ 8, BTO @ 4.35 (win)
FSLR STC @ .90 x3, BTO @ .76 (win)
GILD STC @ 1.21 x2, BTO avg price .99 (win)
INTC STC @1.02 x4, BTO @ .57 (win)
MAT STC @ .30 x 8, BTO @ .19 (win)
SNAP STC @ .04 x10, BTO @ avg price .14 (loss)
WDC STC @ .01 x2, BTO @ avg price .93 (loss)
CHTR STC @ 1.66, BTO @ 3.53 (loss)
COG STC @ .69 x5, BTO @ .39 (win)
CL STC @ .10 x4, BTO avg price .45 (loss)
TSLA calls
#Earnings I sold the 300 way too early on Tuesday, before I heard their earnings date was moving. I’ll be selling a strangle later today.
BTC $TSLA Oct 26th 300 call for 13.00. Sold for 4.60 on Tuesday.
BTC $TSLA Oct 26th 330 call for 1.16. Sold for 2.05 on Tuesday.
AMZN
STO 1475/1500 bull put spread @ 1.75 for November 2 expiration.
BABA
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Earnings next week…
Bought to Close BABA OCT 26 2018 150.0 Calls @ .01 (sold for 2.20)
Sold BABA NOV 2 2018 150.0 Calls @ 2.02
Morning Action
#earnings
At the bell, filled on closing $GOOGL Oct 26th 1000/980 put spreads for .35. Condor sold yesterday for 3.00. I’ll let the calls expire.
Closed $INTC Oct26/Nov2 45 dbl calendars for 1.06. Bought yesterday for .54.
Closed $AMZN Oct 26th 1600/1575 put spreads for 2.70. Condor sold yesterday for 3.75. I’ll let the calls expire.
The $CL and $GILD dbl cals not faring as well. Waiting for a hopeful rise in the stocks.
My kinda chart
Can you imagine having an 8 or 9% drop in one day (let alone 20)? The biggest drops all happened before $UVXY existed. We are now below the 200 dma.
This might help a bit…
…at least for a few minutes.
BREAKING: First read on US Q3 GDP up 3.5%, vs 3.4% growth expected https://t.co/0KZE77VG3E
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) October 26, 2018
/nq
Fresh sell signal on 15 minute into close. Shorted at 7020 out at 6960 so profitable for the day.
Seems like the big moves occur early and late in the the day as people move stuff around to avoid margin.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign I was trying to get a fill on this before the bell, but didn’t. Then I moved to sell it quickly as I saw both GOOGL and AMZN down sharply. Not looking good for the market tomorrow unless the conference calls get these higher.
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 2 2760/2785 call spreads for 6.25.
Double Calendars
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Followed Mama on three of these ideas…
Bought $CL Oct26/Nov2 64 dbl calendars for .44
Bought $INTC Oct26/Nov2 45 dbl calendars for .54
Bought $GILD Oct26/Nov2 70 dbl calendars for .95
TQQQ
In my IRA, I rolled my 58.5 calls from November 9, to November 16, 59 calls for a credit of .18 cents. These are against my 66.67 calls and I have 61 more weeks to go. I have covered 50% of my cost so far but am under water on the long dated position.
#earnings #ironcondor AMZN Following the…
#earnings #ironcondor AMZN
Following the AMZN condors, sold Nov. 16, 1450/1460/2010/2220 for 1.75, thanks all
#shortcalls #closing UVXY Oct. 23,…
#shortcalls #closing UVXY
Oct. 23, sold Jan. 18, 2019 112 call for 6.05, bought today for 4.99, like the deer running my neighborhood these days, I’m a little skittish.
LEAP covered calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $TQQQ Nov 2nd 58 calls for 1.20.
Sold $SQ Nov 2nd 77 calls for 1.20.
GOOGL condor
#Earnings #ironcondor
Sold to open $GOOGL Oct 26th 980/1000/1175/1195 condors for 3.00
Biggest UP move: 5.6% , Biggest DOWN move: -5.4% , Average move: 3.5%.
Stock is up to 1110, so my strikes are +5.9 and -9.9% OTM.
Some divergence
$SPX and indices up and moving toward 2%. However, $VIX opened lower but since then has been in consolidation. Tonight’s AMZN and GOOGL results may portend tomorrow’s open but I’m looking for a near-term peak to get short again. If we’re still going up on Monday I’ll start to reassess.
EWZ
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Filled on this just in time this morning leaving a 4×10 ratio’d position. Whiz says EWZ is going up big…LOL!
Bought to Close EWZ OCT 26 2018 40.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .63)
#rolling and recovery Scalped a…
#rolling and recovery
Scalped a few more trades on /NQ and gave back my gains. But learned that 15 min and 30 minute chart is probably ideal for scalping. 1 and 5 minute too much chop. I will be adding some more directional trades and using my tools.
#fuzzy
XBI 80/97 rolled to 80/90 for 0.49 credit. Cb 17.84
LNG 50/66.5 rolled to 22 DTE 65 for 0.49 credit. Cb 17.84
XBI lot 1,2,3 closed for losses totaling 620. With only until Jan 2019 and hardly any cash in this account did not think it was worth trying to recover and losing more.
#pietrades
LNG Lot 1 66 cc rolled down to 65 and 43 DTE for 0.83 credit. Cb 60.99
LNG lot 2 66 cc rolled the same for 0.9 credit. cb 61.00
#supercharger all I had left for in this tiny IRA.
QQQ 22 DTE 150/155 for 4.53. Will have to manage if we drop more.
GOOGL earnings analysis
#Earnings
Look how docile GOOGL is… its range has been small, and I’ve usually skipped it due to lack of premium. But with IV up, premium is huge at the ranges below. If I go back to the 13th Quarter there was a 16% up move, so beware that despite the recent quiet, GOOGL can move big.
$GOOGL reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 23, 2018 AC 3.89%
April 23, 2018 AC -4.76%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -5.28%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC 4.26%
July 24, 2017 AC -2.93%
April 27, 2017 AC 3.71%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -1.39%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC 0.27%
July 28, 2016 AC 3.32%
April 21, 2016 AC -5.41%
Feb. 1, 2016 AC 1.31%
Oct. 22, 2015 AC 5.60%
Avg + or – 3.51%
Bias +0.22%, very slight upside bias on earnings.
With stock at 1095.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 1035.20 to 1154.80
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1056.56 to 1133.44
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.6%): 1033.68 to 1156.32
Open for requests on other symbols.
AMZN condor
#Earnings #IronCondor
Sold to open $AMZN Oct 26th 1575/1600/1950/1975 condors for 3.75.
IV is jacked up on most, so it allows for wide strangles and condors. Biggest UP move: 13.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.6%, Average move: 4.7%. My trade is +11.4% on the upside and -8.3% on the downside. It is a bullish positioning because of the historical ranges, but even if we drop I don’t think we can get to 1600.
Whiz
100 percent sure it’s a dead cat today…heck if I know.
Another day, another DubCal
Today, I looked for cheap trades that met the criteria. There are way too many. I may add to these near the close.
Bot EXPE Oct26/Nov2 117 double cal @ 1.26
Bot FSLR Oct26/Nov2 42.5 double cal @ .76 x2
Bot GILD Oct26/Nov2 69 double cal @ 1.01
Bot INTC Oct26/Nov2 44 double cal @ .58 x2
Bot MAT Oct 26/Nov2 13.5c double cal @ .19 x4
Bot SNAP Oct26/Nov2 7c double cal @ .15 x5
Bot WDC Oct26/Nov2 54.5 double cal @ .99
Bot CL Oct26/Nov2 64 double cal @ .44 x2
Bot COG Oct 26/Nov2 21 double cal @ .39 x3
Have orders in to buy CHTR and CMG but the bid-ask is wide so nothing yet.
Options Bistro 