Jeff 10:57 am on Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

SNAP earnings analysis – straddle candidate

#Earnings $SNAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

Oct. 25, 2018 AC -10.15%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -6.78%
May 1, 2018 AC -21.93%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC +47.58% Biggest UP (the only UP)
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -14.61%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -14.08%
May 10, 2017 AC -21.45% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 19.51%
Bias -5.92%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 6.82 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 5.75 to 7.89
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 5.49 to 8.15
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (47.6%): 3.58 to 10.06

Cost of a straddle is about 1.10. The AVG move has been 1.38. Nice low risk straddle candidate.

Open for requests on other symbols.

Addy 8:42 am on Tuesday, February 5, 2019

SPX 1dte

sold 2690/2695 BuPS expiring 2/6/2019 for $20.00

thomberg1201 8:20 am on Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

#earnings EA Sold March 15,…

#earnings EA

Sold March 15, 80/100 strangle for 2.89.

MamaCash 8:03 am on Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Tags: SPYcraft ( 95 )

SPY 21dte IC update

Quick update on SPY 21dte IC strat. I’m rolling put credit spreads up as they close for .05. Converting call spreads to back ratios and flies when they are close to being breached. Too many trades to capture here but strat is up $225 since I started it 17 days ago. First layer is Feb 8. All layers are 2x per side. I’ll know soon how well this is working. So far, it’s a ton of work for peanuts but peanuts add up over time.

#spycraft

thomberg1201 7:57 am on Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Tags: ShortStrangles ( 716 )

#shortstrangles BMY Sold March 15,…

#shortstrangles BMY

Sold March 15, 45/55 strangle for 1.42.

thomberg1201 7:15 am on Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Tags: closing ( 267 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

#earnings #closing BA Jan. 29…

#earnings #closing BA

Jan. 29 sold Feb. 15, 335/340/390/395 IC for 1.31, bought yesterday for 2.55, loss of about $125.

General Melchett 6:58 am on Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Tags: LEAPS ( 418 )

WYNN

Rolled WYNN Feb 15 125 Call to March 15 130 Call for 0.43 credit. This is against my long Jan 2021 125 Call. #leaps.

jsd501 6:52 am on Tuesday, February 5, 2019

TQQQ

STO March 15, 55/60 call spread @ .60 against my leaps in 2021

MamaCash 6:40 am on Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Tags: SPX1-dte ( 27 )

SPX 1-dte IC

Building an SPX 1dte position throughout the day. First trade is a ccs based on Theo 2731 gravity point, too many up days, other possible one or two day dampers. Adding trades as I take them.
STO SPX Feb6 2755/2760 BeCS @ .45 x1
STO SPX Feb6 2705/2700 BuPS @ .30 x2. Didn’t get the pullback after PMI/ISM that I expected.
STO SPX Feb6 2760/2765 BeCS @ .35 x1. This converts one 10w spread for .80 credit
STO SPX Feb6 2705/2700 BuPS @ .30 x1. Willing to go up to 8 BuPS.
STO SPX Feb6 2705/2700 BuPS @ .60 x1. 4 pcs total
Flied off the risk on the call spread for 2.30 debit. New position SPX Feb6 2745/2755/2565 call fly.

Update: BuPS x4 closed at .05 for $100 total profit.

Don’t want short risk tomorrow due to VIX upside warning potential at the close today.

#spx1-dte

Jeff 6:25 am on Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

REGN earnings analysis

#Earnings $REGN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO +1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
May 5, 2016 BO +4.73%
Feb. 9, 2016 BO -6.28% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 3.36%
Bias 0.87%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 425.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 403.84 to 446.16
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 410.73 to 439.27
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 395.29 to 454.71

Open for requests on other symbols.

Jeff 6:12 am on Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

DATA earnings analysis

#Earnings $DATA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 6, 2018 AC +15.35% Biggest UP
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -6.64%
May 2, 2018 AC +6.58%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +8.97%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -9.21%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +9.02%
May 3, 2017 AC +6.12%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC +14.66%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -12.11%
Aug. 2, 2016 AC -5.67%
May 5, 2016 AC -11.31%
Feb. 4, 2016 AC -49.44% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 12.92%
Bias -2.81%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 132.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 119.66 to 144.34
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 114.94 to 149.06
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (49.4%): 66.74 to 197.26
Open for requests on other symbols.

geewhiz112 7:44 pm on Monday, February 4, 2019

Earnings Data Request $DATA

Hi @jeffcp66,
Do you have the earnings data set for $DATA. They report tomorrow (Tuesday) after the close?

geewhiz112 3:59 pm on Monday, February 4, 2019
Tags: ShortCalls ( 979 ), ShortPuts ( 4,772 )

Closed Early URI Puts / Sold NFLX Calls

#shortputs
$URI BTC 2/15 105 puts at .10. STO at 2.30. Thank you @fuzzballl

#shortcalls
$NFLX STO 2/8 155 at 1,70 (Covered)

fuzzballl 3:50 pm on Monday, February 4, 2019
Tags: LEAPS ( 418 ), LongCalls ( 495 )

WTW

#LongCalls #LEAPS – One fill today on a batch of my many over-writes on this one…

Bought to Close WTW FEB 8 2019 36.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .75)

Jeff 1:52 pm on Monday, February 4, 2019
Tags: VIXIndicator ( 294 )

One more…

#VIXIndicator one more day with a $VIX close below 16.47 and we have an Upside Warning. I think today’s action foretells we are headed that way.

Jeff 11:59 am on Monday, February 4, 2019
Tags: Rolling ( 464 ), SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX roll

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Feb 22nd 2670/2650 put spreads for 3.45. #Rolling the condor closed earlier. Selling only puts on presumption we are going higher in near-term.

Jeff 10:32 am on Monday, February 4, 2019
Tags: CondorRoll ( 191 ), SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte My third attempt at a long condor is the first losing one. Looks like the Feb 4th one will expire worthless. We’ll see how things play out through tomorrow if an Upside Warning hits, and proceed accordingly for the Feb 6th expiry.

I also backed out of this roll trade with a profit, as it could get steamrolled on the call side. I’ll look to sell a put spread to replace it.

BTC $SPX Feb 14th (monthly) 2600/2620/2760/2780 #CondorRoll for 3.95. Sold for 6.05 last Wednesday.

MamaCash 10:30 am on Monday, February 4, 2019
Tags: MarketTide ( 11 )

Market Tide v3 or updates?

Has anyone heard from Bryan about v3 or other updates? I thought v3 was imminent when he did the last webinar. I haven’t heard anything in a while but I had an email mixup with AlphaShark because I unsubscribed at one time.
#markettide

honkhonk81 10:17 am on Monday, February 4, 2019

A TRADE:

CRON STO 2/8/18 25.0 CALLS @1.45 Will buy stock to cover if necessary.

Rolled up some CRON 2/8 CALLS from 21.0 to 23.0, same expiration this morning for a 1.95 debit.

Ramie 8:43 am on Monday, February 4, 2019

AMZN put spreads

On the thesis that the 50 day moving average will hold as support, sold the following:
$AMZN Feb 15 1590/1580 BuPS @ 2.05
$AMZN Mar 15 1550/1500 BuPS @ 9.60

MamaCash 8:39 am on Monday, February 4, 2019
Tags: SPX1-dte ( 27 )

SPX 1-dte IC

Closed the SPX Feb4 IC from Friday where I added one spread at a time based on Tide
BTC Feb4 2740/2750 BeCS @. 05. STO @.90
BTC Feb4 2670/2665 BuPS @ .05 x3. STO @ .30, .25, .25
BTC Feb4 2680/2675 BuPS @ .05 x1. STO @ .35
Total profit $200
#spx1-dte

Jeff 7:47 am on Monday, February 4, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

GOOGL earnings analysis

#Earnings $GOOGL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Thu 10/25/2018 AC -4.90%
Mon 07/23/2018 AC +3.46%
Mon 04/23/2018 AC -3.94%
Thu 02/01/2018 AC -8.22%
Thu 10/26/2017 AC +4.20%
Mon 07/24/2017 AC -4.00%
Thu 04/27/2017 AC +5.12% Biggest UP
Thu 01/26/2017 AC -4.29%
Thu 10/27/2016 AC -1.45%
Thu 07/28/2016 AC +4.47%
Thu 04/21/2016 AC -7.00%
Mon 02/01/2016 AC -8.69% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 4.98%
Bias -2.10%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 1135.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1082.60 to 1187.40
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1078.50 to 1191.50
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.7%): 1036.37 to 1233.63
Open for requests on other symbols.

MamaCash 7:41 am on Monday, February 4, 2019
Tags: SPYcraft ( 95 )

SPY 21dte IC

Sold Feb25 BuPS 264/262 x2 @ .30. Moved short put to 25 delta due to low vol.
Sold Feb25 BeCS 278/280 @ .28 to complete the IC.
Continuing to build my SPY 21dte positions. Waited for an MT reversal to sell the call side.
#spycraft

geewhiz112 2:22 pm on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: Assignment ( 174 ), OptionsExpiration ( 796 )

Expired

#optionsexpiration
$NFLX 345 and 352.50 calls (Covered)
$TLRY 85 call (Covered)
$AMD 20 put
$WYNN 116 put
$EXAS 82 put

#assignment
$T 31 put Basis 30.21 Stock at 30. Will sell calls until someone takes it away for the dividend. ;-}

Relax and enjoy the super bowl. You are all CHAMPIONS – thank you.

Jeff 2:13 pm on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: VIXIndicator ( 294 )

Downside Warning canceled!

#VIXIndicator Today’s $VIX close ends the 4-month Downside Warning. If we get two more closes at or below 16.47, it will trigger an Upside Warning, which usually means a strong rally for a few days or weeks.

geewhiz112 1:26 pm on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: BuCS ( 52 ), BullPutSpreads ( 150 ), OptionsExpiration ( 796 ), Rollup ( 121 ), SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

Expirations AMZN SPX / Closed Early AMZN / ROKU BUPS / Roll TQQQ

#optionsexpiration
#bullputspreads
$AMZN STO 2/1 1605/1610 BUPS at .50 Expired same day. Thank you @honkhonk81 and jojo mojo
#spx1dte
$SPX 2630/2650/2765/2745

Closed Early
$AMZN BTC 2/1 1590/1600 BUPS as part of earnings IC at .20 Made 85% of max. Stock started to look soft in late afternoon and I did not want to be correct, I just wanted a profit. Thank you @jeffcp66 BECS expired!

#bucs
$ROKU BTO 3/15 40/50 BUCS at 4.80. Earnings Feb 21st

#rollup
$TQQQ BTC 2/1 46 call and STO 2/15 48.50 call at .15 credit. Sold against leap.

Jeff 12:39 pm on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte long

#SPX1dte Bought to open $SPX Feb 4th 2645/2660-2740/2755 condors for .55. (IV 7.94%: SPX 2704)

I reduced to 15-wide to make it cheaper, and also went to the strike below .06 on each side. This lowers probability, but short strikes are only 80 apart, which is the lowest I have had on any condor in this strategy, long or short.

thomberg1201 12:32 pm on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: ShortStock ( 77 )

#shortstock IP Sold short 100…

#shortstock IP

Sold short 100 shares of IP for 46.31

thomberg1201 12:24 pm on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: closing ( 267 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

#earnings #closing IBM January 22…

#earnings #closing IBM

January 22 sold a Feb. 15, 105/135 strangle for .90, turned profitable today, took the small gain, bought for .66

Jeff 11:20 am on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte switch

#SPX1dte My short condor from yesterday will expire worthless (sold for 1.00)

I am going to BUY the condor for Monday, since volatility on the options chain plummeted to below 9%, after being above 15% all week. (today would have been a good day to sell a condor in the morning, and close it by day’s end)

Jeff 10:47 am on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

AMZN closed

#Earnings BTC $AMZN Feb 1st 1600/1590 put spreads for .25. Not going to mess with this one if it decides to get cute. Condors sold yesterday for 2.00.

Jeff 10:24 am on Friday, February 1, 2019

Econ Calendar for week of 2/4/18

**Jerome Powell speaks Wednesday at 7pm ET

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=4&month=2&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Jeff 9:47 am on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 ), IronButterfly ( 141 ), IronCondor ( 244 ), LongStraddle ( 59 )

EW closed, and remaining earnings trades

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to close $EW Feb01/Feb08 170 dbl cals for 3.25 (avg price). Bought yesterday for 1.57.

#IronButterfly $NOW expiring at max loss of .65.
#IronCondor $AMZN expiring at full profit, sold yesterday for 2.00.
#LongStraddle $EBAY straddle bought for 2.23 on Tuesday. It had a subtle move, so I played the swings and managed to sell for 1.168. Even when long straddles miss, they aren’t too bad provided you have a few days and some swings.

fuzzballl 9:31 am on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,209 )

LABU

#CoveredCalls – My other one is ITM and requiring lengthy rolls. Trying to stay out of the way on this one. Hopefully they’ll be adding strikes eventually. Pretty poor selection right now.

Rolled LABU FEB 15 2019 49.0 Call to MAR 08 2019 52.0 Call @ .25 credit

Jeff 9:10 am on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,209 ), Dividends ( 107 ), DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 ), LongStock ( 80 ), pietrade ( 143 )

INTC trades

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar #LongStock #CoveredCalls #Dividends
Lat week’s double cal didn’t work but I stuck with the trade, selling the long put and taking assignment, cost basis of 47.34.

Today I lightened the load, selling slightly less than half of the stock for 49.00.

I’m converting the rest into a #PieTrade, so I sold to Open $INTC March 15th 50 covered calls for 1.01.

fuzzballl 9:08 am on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,209 )

NVDA

#CoveredCalls – Looked safe a couple days ago but not now. Rolling out a week and up 5 points. Earnings the following week so very nice premium coming up. Have to do this now since I’ve gotta leave before the close.

Rolled NVDA FEB 01 2019 145.0 Call to FEB 08 2019 150.0 Call @ .30 credit

Short a 145.0 Put next week also. Setting up for the roll into earnings if needed.

hcgdavis 9:07 am on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy ( 415 ), pietrades ( 240 )

#pietrades STO EOG Feb 8…

#pietrades

STO EOG Feb 8 98.5 put for 1.10. Cb 97.4 if assigned.
Another batch of 3 in another account for 1.05 or 97.45 if assigned.

#fuzzy
WDC so far ITM now that can’t roll. Closed the 40/40 for 6.45 credit resulting in 11.26 loss per contract. However, this is much better than if I had held the stock, would have been a 74 point loss as I originially had sold the 100 and 98 puts before Oct.

I will take the cash and use it for a better trade 🙂

fuzzballl 9:03 am on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,209 ), ShortPuts ( 4,772 )

T

#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – Assigned early at 30.21 basis which I don’t mind. Can get the call sales done now.

Sold T MAR 15 2019 31.0 Calls @ .41

thomberg1201 8:07 am on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

#earnings #doublecalendar INTC January 24,…

#earnings #doublecalendar INTC

January 24, bought a Jan. 25/Feb 1, strike 50 double calendar (following Jeff), Jan. 25, rolled the short put to March and sold the long put as INTC went down after earnings. Closed the March put today making 98.93 after all transactions.

honkhonk81 7:33 am on Friday, February 1, 2019

A TRADE:

SFIX BTO STOCK @22.47 A Day trade.

Jeff 6:59 am on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

Double Cals

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar For 2nd quarter in a row, $EW is killing it on this strategy. The long options (Feb 8th) retain a lot of value, but because stock price is so close to my 170 strike, I was able to exit partial for 4.30 near the open. Now waiting for even a better price as the Feb 1st short options decay.

$MRK was the loser…. Sold to close $MRK Feb01/Feb08 74.5 dbl cals for .30. bought yesterday for .47

Working on the $HON exit. Looks like I’ll be able to get a slight profit.

Jeff 6:50 am on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 ), iron ( 2 )

BA earnings closed

#Earnings #Iron Condor This one is close to full loss, but I closed the call side for 4.50, a discount from what is likely to be an expiration of 5.00. Sold the condors for 1.75. Closed the $BA Feb 1st 380/385 call spreads for 4.50. Fortunately, earnings wins from this week will easily exceed this loss!

Jeff 6:43 am on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: ContangoETFs ( 446 )

NUGT calls

#ContangoETFs Yesterday, Sold $NUGT Sept 35 calls for 2.06. First time back in NUGT in a long time, and currently my only ContangoETF position.

MamaCash 6:28 am on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: SPX1-dte ( 27 )

SPX 1dte petri dish

Entering one lot at a time based on 5min and 30min MT signals. Will only take additional lots if they improve average credit or strikes. Quick experiment to see if this helps with defense. The last four trades I’ve defended didn’t need to be defended. Even though all but one were profitable, I don’t like being nervous all day.:-)
STO SPX Feb4 2745/2750 BeCS for .25 @ 7:33 am
STO SPX Feb4 2670/2665 BuPS for .30 @ 8:07 am
STO SPX Feb4 2740/2745 BeCS for .35 @ 8:50. This converts the ccs to a 10w @ .60 credit
STO SPX Feb4 2680/2675 BuPS for .35 @ 10:15
STO SPX Feb4 2670/2665 x2 @ .30 and .35 later in the day. Got busy so couldn’t do JIT posts.
All up 2x call side, 4x put side.
#SPX1-dte

Jeff 5:58 am on Friday, February 1, 2019
Tags: Jobs ( 141 )

January Jobs Report

#Jobs Much higher than expected, again. December revised lower.

+304,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 170K expected
Unemployment at 4.0%, up 0.1%
U6 unemployment at 8.1%, up 0.5%
Wages up 0.1%, 3.2% year over year
Labor force participation 63.2%, up by 0.1

December revised down from 312K to 222K
November revised up from 176K to 196K

mortlightman 5:27 am on Friday, February 1, 2019

Good Morning

Jeff 2:09 pm on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: VIXIndicator ( 294 )

Almost canceled

#VIXIndicator We closed with $VIX only 0.10 above the cancelation level of the Downside Warning, which has been in effect since October 5th. If bears are going to show up, they better do it soon.

Jeff 12:31 pm on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

Double Calendar trades

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar

Bought $HON Feb01/Feb08 144 for .85
Bought $MRK Feb01/Feb08 74.5 for .47
Bought $EW Feb01/Feb08 170 for 1.57

thomberg1201 12:14 pm on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 ), shortputspread ( 95 )

#earnings #shortputspread AMZN Sold March…

#earnings #shortputspread AMZN

Sold March 15, 1490/1500 put spread for 1.41

hcgdavis 11:38 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: lizardpies ( 28 )

#lizardpies XBI decayed enough I…

#lizardpies

XBI decayed enough I rolled it to an 83/83/83.5 jade lizard for 1.59 credit. cb 81.41 if assigned.

Jeff 11:35 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: Earnoings, IronCondor ( 244 )

DECK condor

#Earnoings #IronCondor Sold to Open $DECK Feb 1st 105/110/145/150 iron condors for .85

Jeff 11:32 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 ), IronCondor ( 244 )

AMZN condor

#Earnings #IronCondor Sold to Open $AMZN Feb 1st 1590/1600-1870/1880 iron condors for 2.00.

MamaCash 11:32 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: SPYcraft ( 95 )

SPY 21dte

Closed 6 pcs on 3 SPY 21dte ICs @ .05. Sold for .20 each. Profit $90. Hopefully the turtle wins the race because I am the turtle.
STO replacement pcs at 16 delta.
#spycraft

thomberg1201 11:10 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 ), ShortStrangles ( 716 )

#earnings #shortstrangles DECK Sold March…

#earnings #shortstrangles DECK

Sold March 15, 100/150 strangle for 2.12, stock is at 126.

Jeff 11:06 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Feb 1st 2630/2650-2745/2765 iron condors for 1.00. (IV 15.35%; SPX 2703)

geewhiz112 11:04 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: Rolling ( 464 )

FB Roll

This seems like a stretch but I will watch closely

#rolling
$FB BTC 2/1 152.50 call and STO 2/15 165 call at 9.70 debit but would gain 12.50 if called away.

fuzzballl 10:53 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,209 ), LEAPS ( 418 ), LongCalls ( 495 ), ShortPuts ( 4,772 )

AMAT LABU SMH SOXL TNA TQQQ URI UVXY XBI

#LongCalls #CoveredCalls #LEAPS #ShortPuts – Been a slow couple weeks with the rally and being busy at work. Pretty much all hands on deck to keep things going with this crazy weather! Rolling some covered calls and ratio’d short calls against LEAPS and booking a couple winners for safety. Haven’t been adding anything new…just working with what I’ve got and trying to streamline things a little and be better about adding anything.

AMAT: Ratio’d and rolling just a week to stay prior to earnings.
Rolled AMAT FEB 1 2019 36.0 Calls to FEB 8 2019 36.0 Calls @ .10 credit

LABU: One contract DITM roll below basis…my least favorite position right now but can roll as long as needed.
Rolled LABU FEB 15 2019 35.0 Call JUN 21 2019 40.0 Call @ .01 credit

SMH: Ratio’d roll. Trying to stay as short term as possible.
Rolled SMH FEB 8 2019 91.0 Calls to FEB 22 2019 91.5 Calls @ .17 credit

SOXL: This was ITM not long ago so booking it. Sell again on next pullback.
Bought to Close SOXL FEB 15 2019 75.0 Put at .55 (sold for 3.50)

TNA: Big rally so rolling ratio’d and covered.
Rolled TNA FEB 8 2019 48.5 Calls to FEB 22 2019 49.0 Calls @ even (LEAPS position)
Rolled TNA FEB 1 2019 50.0 Calls to MAR 15 2019 52.0 Calls @ .20 credit (covered)

TQQQ: Added to LEAPS a few days ago so this is ratio’d now.
Rolled TQQQ FEB 8 2019 40.5 Calls to FEB 22 2019 41.0 Calls @ .06 credit
Rolled TQQQ FEB 15 2019 40.0 Call to MAR 15 2019 41.0 Call @ .20 credit (covered)

URI: Book it!
Bought to Close URI FEB 15 2019 105.0 Put @ .20 (sold for 2.30)

UVXY: Rolling short ratio’d puts down. Long LEAP puts working great. This works as a nice hedge on volatility spikes.
Rolled UVXY FEB 15 2019 70.0 Puts to MAR 15 2019 68.0 Puts @ .10 credit

XBI: Ratio’d roll.
Rolled XBI FEB 1 2019 78.0 Calls to FEB 22 2019 79.0 Calls @ .06 credit.

Obviously if I’d seen the Powell capitulation coming I’d not have sold any covered calls. Rolling working fine but capping upside (but giving a nice hedge also). These are all long term positions so working fine. Ratio’d short calls selling below LEAPS is a must. That way the rolls can be gradual since small to no upside risk.

MamaCash 10:37 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: SPX1-dte ( 27 )

SPX 1-dte

STO SPX Feb1 IC 2650/2655/2740/2745 put/call @.50 x6
BTC early for .10. With the VIX drop at the open, couldn’t resist the quick win.:-)
Profit $240
#spx1-dte

Jeff 10:36 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

DECK earnings analysis

#Earnings $DECK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 25, 2018 AC +6.18%
July 26, 2018 AC -6.87%
May 24, 2018 AC +3.54%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +7.30%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +3.32%
July 27, 2017 AC +1.59%
May 25, 2017 AC +18.80% Biggest UP
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -16.06% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +7.11%
July 28, 2016 AC +4.06%
May 26, 2016 AC +7.99%
Feb. 4, 2016 AC -1.96%

Avg (+ or -) 7.07%
Bias 2.92%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 125.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 112.87 to 138.13
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 116.63 to 134.37
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.8%): 101.91 to 149.09
Open for requests on other symbols.

hcgdavis 10:29 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy ( 415 ), lizardpies ( 28 ), OptionsExpiration ( 796 ), pietrades ( 240 )

#optionsexpiration, adjutements, rolls, new trades…

#optionsexpiration, adjustments, rolls, new trades

#lizardpies
XBI 78/82/8.25 should expire tomorrow for 1.26 profit per contract
AMAT BTC the 39 puts for 0.29 that expire tomorrow. Sold for 0.71 last week. Tradestation so can’t trade until tomorrow. I think I will replace it with a #pietrades 108 CC on IBB currently for around 106.89. Obviously that will be different tomorrow.
FAS STO 56 cc for 54.77 expires in 8 DTE
TQQQ batch 1 50 cc rolled out 22 DTE to 51 CC for 0.26 credit. Cb now 57.04 and will have to stay ahead of the rolls.
TQQQ batch 2 50 cc rolled out 36 dTE 51 cc for 0.55 credit. Cb 57.10 and same as above.

#fuzzy
LNG 50/60 8 DTE rolled out to 22 DTE for 0.3 credit. Cb now 13.26
All the others were updated and expire next 1-2 weeks.

Back to even from the start of the October volatility. Now keep working on getting back to even from SVXY losses. Expect at least another 12-24 months unless everything goes perfectly, hahahaha, yeah that would happen 🙂

Something I noticed about #fuzzy over the last 3-4 months. As long as you keep rolling and generating cash they seem to withstand market volatility better than many other trades. In a few small accounts, I generated almost 50% of the value of the account in cash over that time even though the paper value was steadily declining. Have to agree with @fuzzballl, they are flexible. However, going forward I think I will take profit and then reset as we discussed earlier. I think it would make management easier and also lock in profits and also allow you to move the strikes more effectively as the market moves.

Jeff 10:29 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,114 )

Double Calendar Candidates

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar These stocks all have fairly muted historical moves but decent IV elevation for earnings: $CI, $CVX, $HON, $MRK. Also, $EW was my biggest winner in this strategy last quarter. It opened nearly flat and allowed for perfect exit. Then the stock dropped 5%. So its moves are a bit large for a calendar but it worked out, so I may try again.

Jeff 10:01 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

EW earnings analysis

#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC +10.49% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2016 AC +5.62%
April 26, 2016 AC +0.08%
Feb. 2, 2016 AC +8.33%

Avg (+ or -) 6.81%
Bias -1.98%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 170.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 161.14 to 178.86
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 158.42 to 181.58
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 140.95 to 199.05
Open for requests on other symbols.

Jeff 9:56 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

AMZN earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%
July 28, 2016 AC +0.82%
April 28, 2016 AC +9.56%
Jan. 28, 2016 AC -7.60%

Avg (+ or -) 4.82%
Bias 0.39%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 1732.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1639.50 to 1824.50
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1648.52 to 1815.48
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1503.20 to 1960.80
Open for requests on other symbols.

geewhiz112 9:28 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: BullPutSpreads ( 150 ), ShortPuts ( 4,772 )

TNDM Short Puts / COST BUPS

#shortputs
$TNDM STO 2/15 43 puts at 1.65

#bullputspreads
$COST STO 2/15 207.50/212.50 at 2.20 Earnings scheduled for 3/6

mortlightman 9:28 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: In-Out ( 18 )

NVDA

#In-Out 142/144 Calls Feb8 $1.05

mortlightman 9:26 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy ( 415 )

UPS

#fuzzy Feb 6 -160/159Put +160 Call $1.60

geewhiz112 8:38 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: LongCalls ( 495 ), Rolling ( 464 ), ShortPuts ( 4,772 )

EXAS Short Puts / Close T Short Puts / Roll PVTLCalls / Buy AMZN Calls

#shortputs
$EXAS STO 2/8 85 put @ 1.05
$T BTC 2/15 29 put at .20 STO 1/3 at 1.20

#rolling
$PVTL BTC 2/15 18 call and STO 3/15 19 call for .40 added credit. Covered

#longcalls
$AMZN BTO 2/1 1695 calls at 44

MamaCash 8:37 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: SPX1-dte ( 27 )

SPX 1-dte defense

Cut risk to zero and made a small profit my SPX Jan31 2710/2715 ccs by buying back the three 2710 calls in the spread I STO near the close yesterday. Position is now a bullish backratio.
Ended up making $430 on this 6 lot trade.

#spx1-dte

thomberg1201 7:56 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: CoveredCallCampaign ( 132 )

#coveredcallcampaign AAPL Sold Feb. 15,…

#coveredcallcampaign AAPL

Sold Feb. 15, 175 call for .91, cost basis of assigned shares is 173.50

thomberg1201 7:44 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,114 )

#earnings X Yesterday sold March…

#earnings X

Yesterday sold March 15, 22 straddle for 3.11, bought today for 2.64

Jeff 7:39 am on Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte closed

#SPX1dte Closed both shorts for .05 each. Looks good to expire but this clears needed margin from smaller accounts. $SPX Jan 31st 2615/2635/2735/2755 condors sold yesterday for 1.00