#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Not seeing a huge bond rally so easing back into these. Hopefully these will take some heat. Stops set on the Nov 30th sale.
Sold TLT DEC 7 2018 115.0 Calls @ .41
Recent Updates Page 282
OLED
#ShortCalls – Re-loading….
Bought to Close OLED NOV 9 2018 105.0 Calls @ .23 (sold for 1.15)
Sold OLED NOV 23 2018 108.0 Calls @ 1.00
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Bought to Close UVXY NOV 9 2018 62.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.72)
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Nov 7th 2810 calls for 1.70.
Taking a small loss on the 1-day condor, sold yesterday for 1.30. My rule is to stop or roll if we get within 10-points of the short strike. I’m not going to roll because loss is small.
I’ll do this again tomorrow for Friday’s expiration.
TQQQ covered calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold to Open $TQQQ Nov 16th 59 calls for 1.25.
TWLO closed for now
#Earnings This doesn’t appear that it will stop. Of course, once one decides that, that’s where it will stop.
But I’m looking for this to go higher. I looked at the lifetime chart, and every gap up is NOT filled… stock continues higher and never revisits the opening low on post-earnings day. This, however, is a gigantic move. I’m going to look to sell some OTM puts, and then wait for higher prices to try to sell calls or strangles.
BTC $TWLO Nov 9th 85 calls for 10.55. Strangles sold yesterday for 1.96.
TWLO & Z… in the vice
#Earnings… Should have closed both of these right at the open. Getting killed on both ends.
Short the $Z 34/47 strangles
Short the $TWLO 60/85 strangles
$Z will be manageable at such a low stock price. $TWLO is unpredictable because it could run for a very long time without stopping. Watching for now. Will roll as necessary.
DUST
UVXY
AMZN
STC Nov 9 1600/1602.5 Calls $2.50
BTO Monday for 1.90 #supercharger
PYPL calls sold
#SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold to Open $PYPL Nov 16th 88 calls for 1.15.
TSLA closed
#ShortStrangles #EarningsTradeRepair
BTC $TSLA Nov 9th 320/365 strangles for 1.50. Sold last Friday for 6.37.
Almost got my money back from the August madness. Will sell another on Friday.
WYNN earnings analysis
#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO 8.67%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC 5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC 7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31% Biggest DOWN
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC 1.77%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC 15.83% Biggest UP
Oct. 15, 2015 AC -1.16%
Avg (+ or -) 6.15%
Bias 0.54%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 112.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 103.05 to 120.95
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 105.12 to 118.88
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.8%): 94.27 to 129.73
Open for requests on other symbols.
SQ earnings analysis
#Earnings $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 11 quarters (its entire history).
Aug. 1, 2018 AC 8.65%
May 2, 2018 AC 1.13%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC 0.30%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC 3.40%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -4.68%
May 3, 2017 AC 8.86%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC 14.02% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2016 AC 6.41%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC 8.42%
May 5, 2016 AC -21.68% Biggest DOWN
March 9, 2016 AC -6.06%
Avg + or – 7.60%
Bias 1.71%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 79.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 71.15 to 86.85
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 73.00 to 85.00
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.7%): 61.87 to 96.13
Open for requests on other symbols.
REGN
#ShortCalls – Replacing this week’s…
Sold REGN NOV 30 2018 390.0 Call @ 2.50
TQQQ
#ShortPuts #IRA – First March position. 20.4% annualized…
Sold 1 TQQQ MAR 15 2019 35.0 Put @ 2.35
SPX 1-dte
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 7th 2630/2650/2810/2830 condors for 1.30. Expires tomorrow.
Excellent premium available at a .05-.06 delta on the short strikes. Won’t be this easy after volatility drops.
History Lesson from Risk/Hedge
From RiskHedge
“So let’s steer clear of opinion and emotion. Instead, I want to focus solely on the facts that are relevant to you as an investor. As you’ll see, you don’t need to waste even one second worrying about which party will win on Tuesday. I was surprised by what we found.
Since 1946, there have been 18 midterm elections. Stocks were higher 12 months after every single one. Every single one. That’s 18 for 18. Even though we’ve had every possible political combination in the past 72 years. Republican president with Democratic Congress. Democratic president with Republican Congress. Republican president and Congress. Democratic president and Congress.
Since 1946, stocks have risen an average of 17% in the year after a midterm. And if you measure from the yearly midterm lows, the results are even better. From their lows, stocks jumped an average of 32% over the next 12 months. For perspective, that’s more than double the average performance for stocks in all years. We’re also entering the third year of a presidential term, which is historically the strongest year for stocks.”
#shortputspread AMZN TastyTrade idea sold…
#shortputspread AMZN
TastyTrade idea sold Dec. 21 1600/1605 put spread for 2.03.
TWLO Earnings
#Earnings #IronFlies – Just for fun…need about half the expected move. Low probability but low risk.
Sold 1 TWLO NOV 9 2018 66.0/71.0/76.0 Iron Fly @ 4.26
Adding to TQQQ
#LongLEAPs Bought $TQQQ Jan 2020 66.67 calls for 8.15. Adding to my position. Avg cost (not including #SyntheticCoveredCalls) now 10.12. Hard to believe I paid 17.60 for the first one.
Also, BTC $TQQQ Nov 9th 56 calls for .35. Sold for 1.30 last Wednesday.
Now that I have a full position the call selling will continue to bring down cost basis. I won’t necessarily be holding this very long… I may close it if we reach new highs at the end of this year. I’m not so optimistic about the bull market lasting through 2019.
Closing Nov SFIX
Bought to close $SFIX Nov 16 24 puts @ .20. Sold for 1.05 on 10/2.
TRADES:
AMD BTO STOCK @21.42
AMD STO 11/9/18 21.5 CALLS @.70
TWLO BTC 11/9/18 78.0 CALL @2.42 STO Earlier today @3.00 Didn’t realize earning’s were today. THANK YOU @Jeff.
TWLO earnings trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $TWLO Nov 9th 60/85 strangles for 1.96. I am -16.7% and +18.1% OTM.
AMD Just had a spurt…
AMD Just had a spurt over 21.
TWLO earnings analysis
#Earnings $TWLO reports tonight. I missed this one on my side chart, so including analysis here. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 8 quarters (its entire history).
Aug. 6, 2018 AC 18.69%
May 8, 2018 AC 18.17%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC 16.18%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC -6.82%
Aug. 7, 2017 AC 9.99%
May 2, 2017 AC -26.31%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC 1.55%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.15%
Avg + or – 12.61%
Bias 3.54%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 72.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 61.53 to 82.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 62.92 to 81.08
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (26.3%): 53.06 to 90.94
Open for requests on other symbols.
Z earnings trade & analysis
#Earnings Sold to Open $Z Nov 9th 34/47 strangles for 1.45.
$Z reports Wednesday morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77% Biggest DOWN
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC 2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC 9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC 6.32%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -4.73%
May 3, 2016 AC 12.05% Biggest UP
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -0.89%
Nov. 3, 2015 AC -6.27%
Avg + or – 6.38%
Bias -1.32%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 40.60 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 34.57 to 46.63
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 38.01 to 43.19
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.8%): 34.60 to 46.60
Expected move is same as MAX moves. Trade carefully..
Open for requests on other symbols.
TLT
#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Taking a little pre-election risk off since I had triple sold these.
Bought to Close TLT NOV 16 2018 117.0 Calls @ .06 (sold for .40)
Bought to Close TLT NOV 23 2018 117.0 Calls @ .09 (sold for .34)
WTW
#CoveredCalls #LongCalls #LEAPS – Not getting much of a bounce so converting the stock into a LEAPS position out to 2021. Rolling the stock loss into the basis of the LEAPS. Frees up a lot of cash and takes risk off.
Sold WTW Stock @ 48.46
Bought to Close WTW NOV 9 2018 51.0 Calls @ .55 (sold for 1.15)
Exited the position with the stock at a basis of 57.61 and added a couple extra LEAPS (300 stock vs 5 LEAPS now)
Bought to Open WTW JAN 15 2021 50.0 Calls @ 15.00
Sold WTW DEC 7 2018 55.0 Calls @ 1.00
Factoring in the stock loss the new LEAPS basis will be 20.50. I’ll sell the calls about every 30 days to give it some recovery room. Still only need about 75 cents every 30 days. Goal is to get out at even unless it really gets on a run.
#earnings AXDX Jeff-do you have…
#earnings AXDX
Jeff-do you have earnings data on AXDX? Thanks
A TRADE:
$TWLO STO 11/9/18 78.0 CALL @3.00
#earnings #shortstraddle #closing FAST October…
#earnings #shortstraddle #closing FAST
October 8, sold a Nov. 16, 57.50 straddle for 5.14, closed today for 4.55.
UVXY
A TRADE:
SFIX STO 11/9/18 29.0 CALLS @ .50
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign An aggressive bullish trade… purely speculative, that rally will continue or kick in higher gear after the election.
Sold $SPX Nov 30th 2700/2675 put spreads for 7.00.
CVS
Dbl Cal 74 $0.58
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Giving it some incentive to stay up as long as possible. These premiums are awesome…
Sold UVXY DEC 7 2018 70.0 Call @ 4.10
UNG
#LongPuts #LEAPS – I’ll take a shot with a half size starter. Longer term bearish mainly due to contango and global warming 🙂 . Going out to 2020 since option prices aren’t that much more to get an extra nine months. I’ll sell aggressively in the beginning and then hopefully be able to get out of the way later on. Planning on selling about every 30 days so still only need 23 cents in each sale.
Bought to Open UNG JAN 17 2020 28.0 Puts @ 3.55
Sold UNG NOV 30 2018 27.5 Puts @ .71
SVXY
I forgot to post. I STO the 50 calls @ .98 cents to replace the 54 calls that expired on Friday.
STX
I bought to close the January 40 puts @ 1.25 which is where I sold them. I am trying to close all my positions at my cost if I can. I feel that with the FED raising rates, the market is vulnerable and the damage done to the market means to me that we are no longer in a bull market. I will keep my position in the TQQQ and write short dated covered calls against my 2021 60 calls.
Closing ANET
Taking 50+% profits wherever available right now.
Bought to close $ANET Jan 18 185 puts @ 1.45. Sold for 3.00 on 10/8.
Another BOIL
#ContangoETFs Sold $BOIL March 50 call for 4.15
Q: TQQQ naked puts
For those of you who sell naked puts on TQQQ and TNA, do you typically get assigned early if you’re ITM?
Adding VIX long puts
#VXXGame Bought to open $VIX Dec 18th $VIX 16 puts for .80.
I tried this for Oct 30th with a full loss. Holding a batch for Nov 16th, underwater, needs a huge post-election rally.
These December contracts have a better shot.
SPX mid-term stats from Trader’s Almanac
The case is pretty compelling for a rally here. However, this is a strange year so anything could happen.
Midterm bulls
$SPX down 5% in the past month; it either rallies >5% the next 2 months, or it’s only the 2nd time returns have been negative in the past 84 yrs (from DB) pic.twitter.com/0EO5fWnwv3
— Urban Carmel (@ukarlewitz) November 5, 2018
A TRADE:
SFIX BTO STOCK @27.35
ADDED:
PBYI BTO STOCK 23.50
A TRADE:
BTO PBYI STOCK @23.03
This was an add to stock I BTO Friday @20.00. Bottom fished, stock was cut in half Friday.
SPX 1-dte, removing risk
#SPXcampaign Guarding against a sharp drop. I don’t think it will happen, but removing the risk makes the day calmer.
BTC $SPX Nov 5th 2645 puts for .15. I’ll let the other three legs expire.
The 2625/2645/2765/2785 condors sold for 1.20 on Friday.
BOIL lancing higher
#ContangoETFs $BOIL gapped up to a 10-month high.
Sold BOIL Dec 21st 45 call for 3.40, filled on a long-standing GTC order, adding to my position.
BKNG earnings analysis (formerly PCLN)
#Earnings $BKNG reports today after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -5.01%
May 9, 2018 AC -4.74%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC 6.77%
Nov. 6, 2017 AC -13.51% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -6.93%
May 9, 2017 AC -4.51%
Feb. 27, 2017 AC 5.64%
Nov. 7, 2016 AC 6.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC 3.98%
May 4, 2016 BO -7.50%
Feb. 17, 2016 BO 11.24% Biggest UP
Nov. 9, 2015 BO -9.56%
Avg + or – 7.17%
Bias -1.46%, slight negative bias on earnings.
***Since it’s only Monday, I checked 5-day moves. Only 1 quarter of the above exceeded these ranges, at +15.6%.
With stock at 1880.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 1750.90 to 2009.10
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1745.28 to 2014.72
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 1626.01 to 2133.99
Open for requests on other symbols.
REGN earnings analysis
#Earnings $REGN reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 BO 6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO 2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO 6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO 1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO 1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
May 5, 2016 BO 4.73%
Feb. 9, 2016 BO -6.28% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 4, 2015 BO -2.42%
Avg + or – 3.50%
Bias +0.60%, no significant bias on earnings.
***Since it’s only Monday, I checked 5-day moves. Only 1 quarter of the above exceeded these ranges, at +9.5%.
With stock at 354.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 329.66 to 378.34
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 366.38 to 341.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 329.26 to 378.74
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX 1-DTE
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 5th 2625/2645/2765/2785 Iron Condors for 1.20. Expire Monday.
SBUX dbl calendar
#Earnings Biggest move in years means #DoubleCalendar is no good…
Sold to close $SBUX Nov2/Nov9 59 double calendars closed for .07. Bought yesterday for .48.
I closed the calls, but the left the short put to expire and the long put as a lottery ticket next week.
Bond prices and the election?
This article is a few months old but would you guys agree with this? Not being left or right politically just wondering if Dems controlling the house would be a catalyst for bonds to rise? I’ve got some TLT exposure in the event of a rally so debating about booking a big chunk of it Monday.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/midterm-swing-to-democrats-could-lift-bonds-strategists-say-2018-08-23
Poll results
35% higher
47% lower
18% sideways
Since the poll SPX is up 5-8 points
BABA
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Got through earnings with close to the number I wanted. Booking a fairly quick one here so I can concentrate on moving away from individual stocks in these types of plays. Like the ETFs better for long term trading. Fifth time being in and out of BABA this year…
Sold to Close BABA JAN 15 2021 150.0 Calls
Bought to Close BABA NOV 2 2018 150.0 Calls
All said and done it’s a 2.24 winner in a big ‘ol 2 lot. 🙂
REGN
#ShortCalls – Early fill this morning. Earnings next week but not an earnings play here.
Bought to Close REGN NOV 2 2018 365.0 Call @ .05 (sold for 1.25)
Sold REGN NOV 9 2018 385.0 Call @ 1.70
#shortstock KBE Back in, sold…
#shortstock KBE PAG
KBE Back in, sold short 100 shares at 43.20
PAG Sold 100 shares short of Penske at 45.08
Econ Calendar for week of 11/5/18
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” above to keep Bistro features updated.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=5&month=11&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0
WTW
#CoveredCalls – Was hoping to be out of this today but another implosion so I’ll be holding longer. Receiving another 100 shares today from the Jade Lizard at a basis of 59.80.
Basis in overall position is now 58.15 so more work to do….
Sold WTW NOV 9 2018 51.0 Calls @ 1.15
SPX short expiration
Jeff be careful about these short expiration for now, the market is very unpredictable. It goes up +50 and then within either the day or next day it goes -50. It will be a successful trade once the market is settling down.
Higher or lower into the close?
SPX 1 DTE closed
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Nov 2nd 2665/2445 put spread for .40. This was trading at about 1.40 a few minutes ago. Not taking the chance of another 100-point down day, and .65 profit is fine for 1 day.
Sold the condor yesterday for 1.05. I’ll let the 2780/2800 call side expire.
Selling another one of these for Monday expiry at end of today.
#coveredcalls WDC All this talk…
#coveredcalls WDC
All this talk of selling calls against assigned stock-sold Nov. 16, 51 call for .46, dropping my basis into the 69s!
OLED
#BullPutSpreads #TradeRepair – Rolling my 123 puts out to an ITM put spread in Jan 2020. Already had a few there so this adds to it. It’s a 40 wide put spread. Selling a buck a week will cover the spread plus a little more. Maybe get lucky and the stock rallies next year too. Low margin and defined risk also helps.
Rolled OLED NOV 2 2018 123.0 Puts to JAN 17 2020 145.0/105.0 Bull Put Spreads @ 4.97 credit.
AAPL TEVA Earnings
#Earnings – Both max loss. A 3 lot and a 1 lot. Gave back a small portion of the STMP and BIDU winners.
Bought to Close 3 TEVA NOV 2 2018 18.5/20.0/21.5 Iron Flies @ 1.50 (sold for 1.17)
Bought to Close 1 AAPL NOV 2 2018 212.5/220.0/227.5 Iron Fly @ 7.45 (sold for 6.25)
TSLA weekly strangle
#ShortStrangle Sold to open $TSLA Nov 9th 320/365 strangles for 6.37
EXPE rolled the 126 puts…
EXPE rolled the 126 puts that expire today out 15 days for 1.85. Cb now 13.03 and have brought in $4750 in premium in 4 weeks on a 10 lot #fuzzy and still have 805 days left.
This is a good one for #pietrades but if they go wring converting to a #fuzzy also seems to work.
Hope everyone else has a good expiration and weekend 🙂
SBUX explodes
#Earnings Today’s up move is its biggest since April 2009… even the intraday high is biggest since that date.
Guess I picked the wrong day to trade it neutrally.
ANET closed
#Earnings BTC $ANET Nov 2nd 270 calls for .20. The 202.5/270 strangles sold yesterday for 2.025. I’ll let the puts expire.
OLED WTW
I’m out all morning but it looks like i know how to pick em. Gonna be a long slog of covered call writing on these two. Might be able to roll somewhere so I’ll check that when i get home.
Good luck!
AAPL post earnings
Sold:
$AAPL Nov 16 200/190 BuPS for 1.10
$AAPL Dec 21 195/185 BuPS for 1.40
AAPL closed
#Earnings BTC $AAPL Nov 2nd 205 puts for .20. Sold yesterday for 1.60. The 232.5 calls were sold for 1.12 (avg price) and I’ll let them expire.
Options Bistro 