#LongPuts #LEAPS -Rolling weeklies down and out. 3×2 ratio against the long puts so working ok…
Rolled UNG JAN 4 2019 31.0 Puts to JAN 18 2019 30.0 Puts @ .01 credit
Recent Updates Page 289
OLED
#ShortCalls – A couple nearer term positions are nicely profitable with stops set so adding a new one. Outside the expected move and prior to earnings…
Sold OLED JAN 18 2019 100.0 Calls @ 1.50
LABU NVDA STX TNA TQQQ
#CoveredCalls – Assigned some shares so getting the covered calls working right away. Selling slightly below basis so won’t hesitate to roll on a rally. Sales on individual stocks are (hopefully) prior to next earnings.
LABU:
Sold LABU FEB 15 2019 35.0 Call @ 1.68
NVDA:
Sold NVDA FEB 01 2019 145.0 Call @ 4.50
STX: Nice divvy down here…
Sold STX JAN 18 2019 40.0 Calls @ .68
TNA:
Sold TNA FEB 15 2019 45.0 Call @ 1.75
TQQQ:
Bought to Close TQQQ JAN 04 2019 45.0 Call @ .05 (sold for 1.60)
Sold TQQQ FEB 15 2019 40.0 Call @ 1.60
Merry Christmas Eve!
Did not think I would trade today but the continued market puke fest took all the time value out of a few of my positions.
MU rolled the 18 DTE 40/40 #fuzzy out to 39 DTE for 0.33 credit. Cb now 14.8. I suspect there is a lot of tax loss selling in the this and WDC and hope they will rebound in the new year.
I have some EXPE trades in the cue but the market makers are being greedy.
Also, even though my equity curve is now down, in my core account I have generated 17% cash returns over the last 12 weeks. As @kathycon I believe said below, equity is lower but cash is higher. Good to have some cash to use but this time I am waiting until I see a shift.
Maybe, just maybe that was the bottom this morning. The VIX spiked to 33.38 and hopefully that will mark the low. I was personally thinking we needed a vix spike 30-50 before a bottom. Of course it could go much higher but the last major dips were done when there was real panic.
Merry Christmas
BOIL UVXY TQQQ
#LongCalls #LongPuts #LEAPS #BearCallSpreads – A few fills at the open…
BOIL:
Bought to Close BOIL MAR 15 2019 50.0/60.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.25 (sold for 3.00, 3.25, 4.27)
UVXY:
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 28 2018 65.0 Puts @ .07 (sold for 2.75)
Sold UVXY JAN 4 2019 70.0/60.0 Bull Put Spreads @ 1.00
Rolled UVXY JAN 4 2019 62.5 Puts to JAN 4 2019 70.0 Puts @ .82 credit
TQQQ:
Bought to Close TQQQ JAN 4 2019 47.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .63 as BeCS)
Sold TQQQ JAN 18 2019 39.0/45.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .70
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Dec 24th 2270/2290-2490/2510 condors for .20. Sold for 1.40 on Friday. Selling one for Wednesday expiration before the close.
Darkest before the dawn
Here’s Jesse Stine’s 2019 forecast. There’s nothing like a good dose of contrarian sentiment to help you think more clearly.
The link to the newsletter is at the bottom of the page. http://jessestine.com/friends-and-family-market-alerts/
Leveraged ETFs
There has been some talk here and on TastyTrade about the dangers of leveraged ETFs and how they fall harder and faster than their underlying ETFs. So I did a little research of my own based on the 2018 correction starting in October. 🙂
SPY -18.3% from 9/20 high
UPRO (3x SPY) -47%
—–
QQQ -21.3% from 10/1 high
TQQQ (3x QQQ) -55.2%
—–
IWM -26% from 8/31 high
TNA (3x IWM) -61.3%
In all cases, the leveraged ETFs have fallen less than 3x the drop of the underlying. With respect to whether leveraged ETFs keep up with the underlying on a bull run, I won’t cite them all. However, since the Jul 2010 low to the Oct 2018 high, QQQ was up 304% and TQQQ was up 3,619%. It may be true that the 3x ETFs don’t work for day trading due to one-day discrepancies but over time, the leveraged shares make a fine investment imo, especially if you have time to push thru the slogs to the next rally.
UVXY spreads & overall approach
#VXXGame My attempts at legging out of the $UVXY Dec 21st 50/60 call spreads were also a failure, but only a bit worse than allowing them to expire. Sold for 5.68 (avg price), some will expire for 10.00, some closed for 10.60, and assigned short shares on a couple others, cost basis 69.43.
Also, I took off some risk this week without rolling. First we’ve experience a market like this 2008, and I wasn’t trading then. I hold very few short options positions compared to many times in the past, and my remaining short $UVXY calls are hedged with a greater number of long calls, albeit much further OTM.
Suffice it to say the only thing working right now are the 1-day SPX condors. I’m finished trying any more directional positions until market is clearly finished with this. If we go much lower, I will continue to shed positions slowly.
BTC $UVXY Mar 15th 75 call for 16.00, sold for 6.125, avg price, in Sept/Oct
BTC $UVXY March 15th 95 call for 10.15, breakeven, sold for 10.15 in late October.
Closed $SOXL Feb 15th 75 put for 12.70. Sold for 7.00 as a roll.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte I tried to leg out and leg in to the condors today. I continue to suck at those attempts like no other. This time, I paid more than necessary to exit today’s condor, but still with a profit. I was mildly successful at legging in to Monday’s.
Closed $SPX Dec 21st 2355/2375-2550/2570 condors for .60 total. Sold for 1.05 yesterday.
Sold $SPX Dec 24th 2270/2290-2490/2510 condors for 1.40 total.
So much for the Santa…
So much for the Santa Claus rally this year. I hope some of this is tax lot selling and we rebound in the new year.
I will be adjusting more positions next week when we re-open.
Merry Christmas everyone!
T2108 update
Almost at the close, T2108 is 5.60.
UVXY
Econ Calendar for week of 12/24/18
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=24&month=12&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0
WTW
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Prior sale is over 50 percent green and the one before that is practically worthless. Staying out in time and adding outside the expected move.
Sold WTW JAN 11 2019 46.0 Calls @ .70
OLED
#ShortCalls – Let’s see if we can talk this thing into an up move. Selling aggressively at the expected move and the 50ma resistance…(I usually try to be just outside those)
Sold OLED JAN 11 2019 100.0 Calls @ 1.75
OLED
#ShortCalls – Forgot I had this order in. Was gonna let it expire.
Bought to Close OLED DEC 21 2018 104.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.05)
UVXY
WYNN
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Still plugging away with overlapping sales…
Bought to Close WYNN DEC 28 2018 115.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.20 as BeCS)
UVXY
So touchy
This is perhaps the most sensitive market to seemingly low impact headlines that I can remember…
BREAKING: Stocks spike to session high after NY Fed President John Williams says the Fed could reevaluate its view in 2019 https://t.co/VO5GKms1AL pic.twitter.com/1Zrhcbqyxs
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) December 21, 2018
Covered Calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls These would have been better yesterday, but couldn’t catch it.
Sold $SQ Dec 28th 58 calls for .75
Sold $TQQQ Dec 28th 39 calls for .85
It will be hilarious if I just sold at the bottom! Oh, how we will laugh.
#shortstock DENN These are interesting…
#shortstock DENN
These are interesting times to be trading. I have just a few short stock positions, one being Denny’s that I shorted at 13.91, now UP to 16.23. I’ve lamented this before, I know I’m repeating, but in a seemingly bear market, can’t Denny’s participate even a little?
Alphashark tool market tide indicator.
After figuring out a rough number of how many want the tool Bryan has given the go ahead.
Just send him an email directly. Bryan Klindworth and his email is bryan@alphashark.com. Tell him you want the tool and the special pricing and are from the Options bistro. They will then give you a special link to purchase at the discount.
Not sure how long he will leave it up.
Can install in a few minutes on TOS and there are also recordings of mentoring sessions.
The only catch is the first person to buy it has to spend $299. Everyone after that gets it for $249.
Happy Trading! You directional guys will probably love this but it only works on time charts, not ticks or range charts. Just something to be aware of.
Merry Christmas, think I am done until next Thurs.
DUST closing
Just saw this fill from earlier.
Bought to close $DUST Mar 15 2019 40 calls @ .90. Sold for 2.00 on 7/27.
Taking the >50% off 4 months early.
Getting more aggressive in closing profitable positions now just because of how the exploding volatility has made a huge dent in buying power.
SPX 1-dte
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Dec 21st 2355/2375-2550/2570 condors for 1.05.
BA put spread
Hoping I’m not too early but just sold $BA Jan 18 295/290 BuPS for 1.20 credit. Short strike is below the stock’s big low on 11/20.
VIX touches above 30…
…and we get a 30-point SPX bounce… is that what everyone was waiting for to buy?
DG MO REGN SMH SOXL TNA TQQQ UVXY
#LongCalls #LongPuts #LEAPS #CoveredCalls – Managed to get a few more sold this morning. LEAPS are obviously struggling but getting some good basis reduction done on the 2021 positions. UVXY puts paying nicely so will receive the full benefit of those sales when it finally pulls back and the long puts start helping out. Nat gas short helping also…
DG:
Bought to Close DG DEC 21 2018 109.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .60)
Sold DG JAN 25 2019 110.0 Calls @ .70
MO:
Sold MO JAN 11 2019 52.5 Calls @ .32
REGN:
Sold REGN JAN 4 2019 385.0 Call @ 2.30
SMH:
Sold SMH JAN 11 2019 91.0/96.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .71
SOXL:
Sold SOXL FEB 15 2019 95.0 Calls @ 7.00
TNA:
Bought to Close TNA DEC 21 2018 54.0 Calls @ .04 (sold for .62)
Sold TNA JAN 11 2019 50.0 Calls @ .90
TQQQ:
Bought to Close TQQQ DEC 28 2018 52.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .72 as BeCS)
UVXY:
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 21 2018 62.5 Puts @ .05 (sold for 1.60)
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 28 2018 60.0 Puts @ .25 (sold for 1.55)
Sold UVXY JAN 4 2019 62.5 Puts @ 1.80
Sold UVXY JAN 4 2019 65.0 Puts @ 1.77
Let’s add gov’t shutdown to the mix!
Average S&P 500 stock is now
D
O
W
N
over 25% from its 52-week high. https://t.co/RXsMXKjJaR pic.twitter.com/Ov9xJk0h6R— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) December 20, 2018
T2108
Anyone know where the T2108 is trading?
#lizardpies Just converted the SQ…
Just converted the SQ trade below into a jade lizard. STO the 55.5/56.5 ccs for 0.44 credit. No upside risk if we rebound and lower break even now 52.08. Widens out the break even on the downside, no risk to upside.
Plunge accelerating
VIX spiking
Lots of adjusting but not…
Lots of adjusting but not making anything, just staying flat. Brutal market, I am officially only 2 k above where I was Feb 2018 after the SVXY losses. Obviously need to change what I am doing, need more directional trading as income investing cannot keep up with 10-20% moves. 2018 is going down as a worse year than 2015. Hope everyone else is doing better than surviving. Even the increased volatility is making it hard to roll.
#pietrades
SQ STO the 56.5 8 DTE put for 1.11. CB 55.38 if assigned but I am most likely going to roll it. Actually it is now down 3+ and will roll it now. Moved to 55.5 15 DTE for 0.22 credit. Break even now 52.52.
LNG 61 cc rolled out to 15 DTE for 0.61 credit. Cb 58.10
TQQQ lot 1 60 cc rolled down to 50 cc 43 DTE for 0.80 credit. Cb 58.10
TQQQ lot 2 60 cc rolled down to 50 cc and 43 DTE for 0.70 credit cb 57.60
LNG lot 2 15 DTE 61 cc cb 59.27
#fuzzy
EXPE 125/126 rolled 43 DTE for 0.55 credit. cb now 12.23
EOG 110/110 rolled out 43 DTE for 0.4 credit. cb 11.44
GILD 67.5/69 rolled out 43 dTE for 0.69 credit cb now 8.90
May plan going forward. The now deep ITM #fuzzy will roll the short options out to 43 dte then reset after every 3 weeks. Hope to keep chipping away and if the delta/gamma becomes too large to roll for credits will either close or roll up/down. As long as I can gain 0.4 every 3 weeks will run them to expiration. Still have 108 weeks on most.
For the #pietrades that are below cost basis will aggressively roll up at any sign of rebound to avoid being run over and locking in a loss.
As cash builds from the rolls may either sit on it or add to weekly #pietrades depending on what the market is doing. However I think getting short here is stupid. Any progress on a trade deal with China and I think we rebound big time. Not to get political, but I think the GOP is starting to see how bad tariffs are (layoffs, increased costs, and now crashing market) and to keep their jobs will pressure to get a deal done.
Trade smart or sitting on the sidelines for a while is also a viable option. Wish I had just kept my hedges on, I would be pulling out huge amounts of cash now. Another expensive lesson learned.
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte Closed entire condor, $SPX Dec 20th 2360/2380-2585/2605 for .30. Sold yesterday for 1.30.
At the end of today, I will sell a new one for tomorrow’s PM expiration.
NKE earnings analysis
#Earnings $NKE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC 11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC 0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC 10.96%
March 21, 2017 AC -7.05% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2016 AC 0.98%
Sept. 27, 2016 AC -3.77%
June 28, 2016 AC 3.84%
March 22, 2016 AC -3.79%
Dec. 22, 2015 AC -2.36%
Avg (+ or -) 4.14%
Bias 0.40%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 69.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 64.42 to 73.58
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 66.14 to 71.86
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 61.33 to 76.67
Open for requests on other symbols.
#earnings COST ADBE Sold Dec….
#earnings COST ADBE
Sold Dec. 21 5 wide #ironcondors, closed the put spreads for max loss on COST, 3.20 on ADBE.
REGN RTN SMH SOXL TNA TQQQ UVXY WTW WYNN XBI
#LongCalls #LongPuts #LEAPS #CoveredCalls – Out most of the afternoon but managed to sell pretty hard into the morning rally. Sell the rip until it quits working…
REGN:
Bought to Close REGN DEC 21 2018 397.5 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.10)
Sold REGN DEC 28 2018 385.0 Call @ 2.20
RTN:
Sold RTN JAN 4 2019 175.0/185.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .62
SMH:
Bought to Close SMH DEC 21 2018 94.5 Calls @ .07 (sold for .58)
Sold SMH JAN 4 2019 94.0 Calls @ .55
SOXL: Covered but didn’t get a chance to sell a new batch…
Bought to Close SOXL DEC 21 2018 100.0 Calls @ .10 (sold for 12.35)
TNA:
Bought to Close TNA DEC 28 2018 60.0/70.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .06 (sold for .91)
Sold TNA JAN 11 2019 55.0 Calls @ .82
TQQQ: Some covered and some against LEAPS…
Bought to Close TQQQ DEC 21 2018 46.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .82)
Bought to Close TQQQ DEC 21 2018 48.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 2.05)
Sold TQQQ JAN 4 2019 47.0/52.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .63
Sold TQQQ JAN 4 2019 45.0 Call @ 1.60
Sold TQQQ JAN 18 2019 45.0 Calls @ 1.65
UVXY:
Rolled UVXY DEC 28 2018 57.5 Puts to DEC 28 2018 65.0 Puts @ 1.46 credit
Sold UVXY DEC 28 2018 60.0 Puts @ 1.55
Sold UVXY DEC 28 2018 62.5 Puts @ 1.60
WTW:
Sold WTW JAN 4 2019 46.0 Calls @ 1.00
WYNN: Some covered and some against LEAPS…
Sold WYNN JAN 11 2019 114.0/124.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.05
Sold WYNN JAN 11 2019 110.0 Call @ 2.18
Bought to Close WYNN DEC 21 2018 110.0 Call @ .05 (sold for 3.25)
XBI:
Bought to Close XBI DEC 28 2018 81.5 Calls @ .02 (sold for .40)
Bought to Close XBI DEC 28 2018 82.5 Calls @ .01 (sold for .51)
Sold XBI JAN 4 2019 77.0/82.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .71)
UVXY spreads
#VXXgame I had sold $UVXY 50/60 Dec 21st call spreads(for 4.35 and 7.00) in belief volatility would be calmed going into Xmas. Wrong.
On one account, I was assigned short stock at 50.00. I sold the long 60 calls for 12.60 today, and covered stock f0r 71.10, meaning out of the spread for 8.50.
On the other accounts trying to close one of the spreads for 9.30 but not getting filled. I’ll see if assigned tonight and deal with closing on the swings tomorrow.
I take it FOMC was…
I take it FOMC was not good. Away from my desk for a few hours and everything green turned red, very Christmasy!
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 20th (monthlys) 2360/2380-2585/2605 condors for 1.30. Stop trading at 4:15pm tomorrow, settle Friday morning. I will close the trade during trading hours tomorrow.
Shorts are 205 points apart.
SPX trades
Before the announcement:
Bought to Open $SPX Dec 20th (monthlys) 2650/2670 call spreads for 1.20. This was betting on an explosion higher, and perhaps a quick double into tomorrow. So far, not looking good.
After the announcement
Sold to open Feb 14th (monthlys) 2300/2280 put spreads for 1.95. Partial roll from January spread stopped earlier this week.
Looking to sell the 1-dte trade in the next hour.
A TRADE:
UVXY STO 12/21/18 71.5/74.0 BeCS @.55. Break Even Stock Price indicator in TOS is my stop.
MU #fuzzy Rolled the 40/40…
MU #fuzzy
Rolled the 40/40 down to 35/35 for debit of 2.10 then credit of 0.88 so cost basis now 15.13. Its a dog but weekly premium is good so I thought I would stick with. Have 108 weeks to break even or hopefully make some money on it.
MU and WDC both went from being my best perforning tickers all year to my worst in just 10 weeks.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX 2435/2415 put spreads for .15. Looking to close call side on a pullback. If none comes I will stop out when condor is near breakeven.
Not advertising here and I…
Not advertising here and I am not getting anything out of this but some local trader friends wanted the Alphashark market tide indicator. I spoke with Bryan who developed it and negotiated a deal. First copy $299 but any additional copies for $249 and no limit. It retails for $999 on their website. I have been using it for 2 months now and would gladly pay retail now that I know how well it works.
Here is a screen shot with just the indicator and a market profile.
He did not want me just randomly posting the link so if you want it send me an email or let me know here and I will send you the special purchase link for the discount.
Cheers, Chris
#assignment yet again AAPL M…
#assignment yet again AAPL M
Assigned on AAPL, knew that would happen, basis is 174, sold Dec. 21, 170 call for .68
M assigned at 39, basis of 36.28, M at about 31
What me Worry
VXX long puts
Playing for a volatility contraction into the end of the week.
Bought to open:
$VXX Dec 21 43.50 puts @ 1.57
$VXX Dec 21 44.00 puts @ 1.80
SPX 1 -dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 19th 2415/2435-2635/2655 condors for 1.25. Shorts are 200 points apart. Will try to close before Fed announcement at 2pm ET tomorrow.
MO
#LongCalls #LEAPS – A cheap one I took for fun where the weekly sales got in trouble almost immediately. Rolled them way out and up. Finally getting a chance for a reset. Out to 2021 only needing .04 per week…
Bought to Close MO MAR 15 2019 57.5 Calls @ .74 (sold for .72)
Sold MO DEC 28 2018 53.0 Calls @ .36
more DUST
#BearCallSpreads – My last position in this ticker. So long ‘ol buddy!
Bought to Close DUST DEC 21 2018 30.0/35.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .10 (sold for 1.38)
SPX IC Entry
Sold on 12/13 2.35 credit
Iron Condor Entry:
STO SPX 1/25/19 2370 Puts
BTO SPX 1/25/19 2350 Puts
STO SPX 1/25/19 2870 Calls
BTO SPX 1/25/19 2890 Calls
best possible Credit
Exit:
3x put spread credit stop GTC
3x call spread credit stop GTC
AMAT DG EWW OLED TNA UVXY WYNN
#LongCalls #LongPuts #LEAPS – Taking a shot with some additional sales with stops on previous weeks that are profitable. I may get stopped out of a few of those if the market reacts positively to the Fed….but Gubment shutdown still looming….(insert OMG scary face world is ending emoji here…LOL!).
AMAT:
Sold AMAT JAN 11 2019 37.0/42.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .32
DG:
Sold DG JAN 11 2019 109.0 Calls @ .92
EWW:
Bought to Close EWW DEC 28 2018 43.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .40)
Sold EWW JAN 11 2019 42.0 Calls @ .38
OLED:
Sold OLED JAN 4 2019 110.0 Calls @ 1.15
TNA: Added to LEAPS and new sales…
Bought to Open TNA JAN 15 2021 70.0 Calls @ 7.00
Sold TNA JAN 4 2019 55.0/60.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .52
UVXY:
Rolled UVXY DEC 28 2018 52.5 Puts to UVXY DEC 28 2018 57.5 Puts @ .56 credit
WYNN:
Sold WYNN JAN 4 2019 115.0 Calls @ 1.55
A near record setting week of premium selling last week and this week is shaping up nicely. Let’s see where the bounce goes…
DUST
#LongPuts #LEAPS – Turned out to be a good short but feel like I’ve got about all I can get for now. Gold pushing up against resistance and DUST back near it’s original starting point prior to the run up so booking it.
Entered the trade on the spike in mid August and added on the September spike. In spite of some weekly puts having issues and never quite getting to a full position it turned out ok.
Sold to Close DUST JAN 17 2020 40.0 Puts
Bought to Close DUST JAN 4 2019 32.0 Put
Bought to Close DUST JAN 4 2019 33.0 Put
Bought to Close DUST JAN 11 2019 23.5 Puts
All said and done a 4.57 winner on a 7 lot.
🙂 🙂
FDX earnings analysis
#Earnings $FDX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -5.53% Biggest DOWN
June 19, 2018 AC -2.69%
March 20, 2018 AC -1.17%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC 3.51%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC 2.08%
June 20, 2017 AC 1.60%
March 21, 2017 AC 2.12%
Dec. 20, 2016 AC -3.33%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC 6.89%
June 21, 2016 AC -4.53%
March 16, 2016 AC 11.83% Biggest UP
Dec. 16, 2015 AC 2.02%
Avg (+ or -) 3.94%
Bias 1.07%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 183.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 172.43 to 195.07
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 176.51 to 190.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 162.01 to 205.49
Open for requests on other symbols.
MU earnings analysis
#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC 0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC 4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC 8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%
March 23, 2017 AC 7.40%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC 12.68% Biggest UP
Oct. 4, 2016 AC -0.56%
June 30, 2016 AC -9.15% Biggest DOWN
March 30, 2016 AC -0.09%
Dec. 22, 2015 AC -2.12%
Avg (+ or -) 5.11%
Bias 0.46%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 34.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 31.72 to 37.77
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 32.97 to 36.53
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s 12.7%): 30.34 to 39.16
Open for requests on other symbols.
WYNN
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Filled on a batch of the over sales. Looking to sell ’em again tomorrow either for the double dip next week or the week after…
Bought to Close WYNN DEC 21 2018 120.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.16)
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Dec 17th 2500/2520-2665/2685 condors. Sold Friday for 1.05.
Also, stopped $SPX Jan 17th 2420/2400 put spreads for 3.65, since expected move breached my short puts. These were sold as a roll from a stopped #SPX1dte spread (sold condor for 3.00 on Nov 20). With one roll down of the call side, I’m getting out of this with only a .20 profit (or basically breakeven after commissions). Will look to roll into a new condor later this week.
Double down
Bought more $SPX Dec 28th long 2700/2720 call spreads for .85 (first batch bought this morning for 1.80). With a double position it is easier to sell half at a decent profit and let the other half ride as long as I can. After today’s action the only thing I can be playing for is a rally after we get the Fed meeting out of the way. And by rally, I don’t mean much higher than 2700 before we probably resume the downtrend.
New UVXY high
#VXXGame We just exceeded the 10/29 high of this correction on $UVXY.
The $VIX is still 3 points below its correction high set on 10/11.
We are setting up today to hit our 7th downside warning in this correction.
BOIL closed
#ContangoETFs Closed the last of my $BOIL Jan 45 calls for 3.30. I’m underwater despite a few rolls, but this is closest to the money that I had. I want to be ready should we get another winter push higher.
Covered Calls closed
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
BTC $TQQQ Dec 21st 49 calls for .10. Sold for .90 on Thursday.
BTC $SQ Dec 21st 66 calls for .10. Sold for .84 on Thursday
#spx 12/17 IC/IF Risk $50 for $100
IV is up with the Fed meeting on Wed.
Next Expiration ES Vertical/Binary Signals
Entry:
Sell ES Closest Expiration 2485×2475 Put Spread/Binary
Sell ES Closest Expiration 2630×2640 Call Spread/Binary
Price: 1.90+ combined credit, 2.00+ is preferred
Exit Stop Limit Loss GTC Resting Order: 3x credit per side
ie, 1.00 for spread, the stop is 3.00
_______________________________________________________________________
Next Expiration SPX Iron Butterfly Signals
Entry:
Sell SPX Closest Expiration 2460x2560x2660 Iron Butterfly
Price: Max Credit Possible for Iron Fly
Exit Stop Limit Loss GTC Resting Order: Credit for Iron Fly x1.5
ie, if the iron fly credit is 30, the GTS stop limit debit would be 45 points.
…by the roadside in a ditch
Watching the carnage, this one came to mind. (click the photo)
12/14 spx trades
meant to post these on friday, will try to post wednesday’s trade plan today.
Next Expiration ES Vertical/Binary Signals
Entry:
Sell ES Closest Expiration 2555×2545 Put Spread/Binary
Sell ES Closest Expiration 2650×2660 Call Spread/Binary
Price: 1.90+ combined credit, 2.00+ is preferred
Exit Stop Limit Loss GTC Resting Order: 3x credit per side
ie, 1.00 for spread, the stop is 3.00
_______________________________________________________________________
Next Expiration SPX Iron Butterfly Signals
Entry:
Sell SPX Closest Expiration 2500x2600x2700 Iron Butterfly
Price: Max Credit Possible for Iron Fly
Exit Stop Limit Loss GTC Resting Order: Credit for Iron Fly x1.5
ie, if the iron fly credit is 30, the GTS stop limit debit would be 45 points.
#contangoetfs BOIL Down below 38…
#contangoetfs BOIL
Down below 38 today
SPX long
#SPXcampaign #SPX1dte Bought to open $SPX Dec 28th 2700/2720 call spreads for 1.80. Looking for a trickle higher into the end of the year.
Kinda what I’ve been expecting…
…but so far, still waiting…
$SPX: clean tag of lower trend line as support.
New lows show a positive RSI divergence.
If this trend line holds and the structure plays as a falling wedge a very sizable rally could emerge.
Previous breakout attempt failed.
Targets would include MA reconnects. pic.twitter.com/9UrAfk889d— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) December 17, 2018
At the lows, do we…
At the lows, do we finally get a Santa rally or drive further off the cliff.
I would not mind the seasonal Santa rally but so far has not looked like it is going to happen.
Trade smart and don’t drink too much eggnog!
Closed SOXL call
#ContangoETF’s While short puts continue to decay (very slowly), closed $SOXL Feb 150 call for .90. Sold for 4.50 on Dec 3rd. I’ll sell more calls on any rally.
UVXY
ORCL earnings analysis
#Earnings $ORCL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters, since expiration is 4 days away on Friday.
**** FIVE-DAY moves ****
Mon 09/17/2018 AC 3.90%
Tue 06/19/2018 AC -4.68%
Mon 03/19/2018 AC -13.79% Biggest DOWN
Thu 12/14/2017 AC -4.74%
Thu 09/14/2017 AC -8.99%
Wed 06/21/2017 AC 9.77% Biggest UP
Wed 03/15/2017 AC 5.06%
Thu 12/15/2016 AC -4.55%
Thu 09/15/2016 AC -4.38%
Thu 06/16/2016 AC 3.49%
Tue 03/15/2016 AC 7.07%
Wed 12/16/2015 AC -6.39%
Avg (+ or -) 6.40%
Bias -1.52%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 46.70 the data suggests these ranges into Friday’s expiration.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 43.62 to 49.78
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 43.71 to 49.69
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.8%): 40.26 to 53.14
Open for requests on other symbols.
Good morning
Another ugly day in the market.
DG TNA TQQQ XBI
#LongCalls #LEAPS – I thought I was done but I can’t resist selling a little more into this volatility. Gives me a little extra hedge if we open down next week also.
DG: Stop set on next week so going out with an overlapping sale. Selling against 110/90 put spreads so any sale above 110 is a nice one.
Sold DG JAN 4 2019 110.0 Calls @ .70
TNA: Booking and selling. Fairly aggressive double dip next week.
Bought to Close TNA DEC 21 2018 66.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .81)
Sold TNA DEC 21 2018 54.0 Calls @ .62
TQQQ: Same as TNA double dipping next week…(hopefully)
Bought to Close TQQQ DEC 21 2018 54.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .85)
Sold TQQQ DEC 21 2018 46.0 Calls @ .82
XBI: Booking and selling.
Bought to Close XBI DEC 21 2018 85.0/95.0 Bear Calls Spreads @ .01 (sold for .63….legged out to get the net penny 🙂 )
Sold XBI DEC 28 2018 81.5 Calls @ .40
Just for margin purposes in the IRA: Bought XBI DEC 28 2018 88.5 Calls @ .01 paired with 81.5 and 82.5 short calls.
Whew! Happy weekend everyone!
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 14th 2580 puts for .20.
Sold $SPX Dec 17th 2500/2520-2665/2685 condors for 1.05.
