Sold $AMZN Jan 18 1400/1390 BuPS @ 1.50
Recent Updates Page 290
WTW
#LongCalls #LEAPS – This is turning into one of my more interesting positions. Started out as a blown out earnings strangle and then became a covered call position. To free up cash the stock was rolled into 2021 LEAP calls at the 50 strike. Throughout the entire ordeal I’ve managed to stay pretty close to even but unable to get all the way there. Still not bad when considering it all started up around 80 and the stock is below 48 now.
It’s trying to find a bottom or could be setting up for another leg down. As long as it’s grinding sideways, I’ll keep hammering the weekly sales right at the money with great premium. This could end up being a longer term hold. Starting to see a lot of potential considering all the premium brought in so early in a 2021 position…
These are non ratio’d full sales that I will roll at the first sign of negative deltas. Otherwise keep selling.
Bought to Close WTW DEC 14 2018 49.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.15)
Sold WTW DEC 28 2018 48.5 Calls @ 1.85
That’s it for me this week (I think ). Another pretty good week of selling with the elevated volatility…
Hey Gang,
For those of you who wish to read this, here’s what’s been going on with me. I had already announced that I planned to retire in April, the volatility mess in Feb hurt, and it sucked big time, but it did not change the calculus on retirement plans. I have never mentioned this, on purpose, but worked for Rockwell Collins ($COL now part of $UTX) for 32 years. I had worked my way into a very unique position where I was the only person in the company doing what I did. I was involved in projects with very senior leaders where I wasn’t even allowed to tell my boss what I was doing. So, my retirement caused them some grief trying to figure out what to do since I could not be directly replaced by anyone in the organization. I spent Feb, Mar and April training a number of different people to take over the things I was working. That took all of my time and effort, so had to just walk away from the market altogether.
Even before the Feb mess occurred, I had been wanting to move away from what I was doing and head for futures day trading. I liked the idea of being able to be flat at the end of every day and not have to worry about after hour shenanigans, or what was happening in China, etc…. Had spent quite a bit of time picking @Fibwizard‘s brain and working on a strategy that would work for me. Once I retired, I dove pretty deep into it and figured out a good approach, but eventually had to look elsewhere. I had figured out a strategy that I could implement, and if I had still been working and at my computer all day, would have gone that way. But, with retirement, I didn’t want to spend all day staring at my screen waiting for the right setups. Lots of other things I wanted to do with my time.
Around that time @smasty160 told me about a guy named Tony Rago @ TheoTrade who was trading /NQ futures with other traders, calling out what they were doing real time in a live chat room. I spent some time studying his approach and watching. I then started paper trading it on TOS. The worst possible thing that could have happened, happened, for the next 3 weeks it worked beautifully and I killed it. So I decided to go live. First day, first trade ended up a very small loss, no biggie. Next trade, got long, and seconds later a Washington headline crushed the market and I had to hit eject as it just kept heading south, no rebound at all to give me a better exit. After what happened in Feb, the last thing I wanted was to be starting something new and losing money at it. So had to be back to paper trading. 3 weeks later when I had some confidence back and was consistently making money, first day back trading real money and you guessed it, bang, another headline hit while I was long and got crushed again.
Not much you can do about the headline risk, but the better I get at trading, the fewer trades I have to take to make my goal for the day and thus the less amount of time actually being exposed to the market.
His overall approach makes sense and Tony put a lot of time and effort into developing it, but I wasn’t really happy with it as is:
1) Sometimes it worked right away
2) Sometimes it worked but you had to deal with some heat first (never feels good as you don’t know if it will continue to go against you or not), which is OK with Tony, he accepts it as part of his thesis. Since it is his, and he put the time into developing it, he has that level of confidence in it. Me, not so much.
3) Sometimes it just plain didn’t work
I before I spent any more capital, I wanted try to figure out how to put the odds on my side
I needed a better set of rules to use.
I spent months fine tuning the approach, trading for a few weeks, analyzing failures. Lather, rinse, repeat. I’ve had times I went 3 weeks trading without a single loosing trade only to have it start to fail so spent more time tweaking. I have definitely put my time into it. I now have time frames, EMA’s and patterns identified that put the edge dramatically in my favor when entering a trade. Still working on my execution, having the patience to wait for the high probability setups and identifying them real time as they are developing, they are always obvious later looking at the chart :). I trade for about the first hour of trading, 1.5 hrs max.
On the flip side, retirement definitely doesn’t suck. I’ve been loving it.
Econ Calendar for week of 12/17/18
Fed decision released Wednesday at 2pm ET
Link to chart: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=17&month=12&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0
#shortputspread AAPL November 2, sold…
#shortputspread AAPL
November 2, sold a Dec. 21, 180/190 put spread for 1.27. I sold the long put today for 13.35, giving me a cost basis of 175.39 after assignment next week. Right now there is decent call volume over the next month and unless AAPL keeps going down , I may be out by earnings at the end of January.
Rolling a bunch this week
#fuzzy
EXPE 125/126 7 DTE rolled out 21 for 0.40 credit. Cb 12.78
EOG 110/110 7 DTE rolled our 28 DTE for 0.55 credit. Cb 11.84
MU 40/40 7 DTE to 21 DTE for 0.40 credit. Cb 13.91
WDC 40/42.5 7 DTE to 28 DTE for 0.51 credit. Cb 19.58.
GILD 67.5/69 1 DTE to 21 DTE for 0.76. Cb 9.59
Still have 109 weeks to manage these and some have already been reduced 25-50% from original cost. For pure ROI looks like #fuzzy may win especially when volatility kicks up.
#pietrades
LNG 62 cc 1 DTE rolled out 7 DTE for 0.74 credit. Cb 58.84
All told $1860 of credits for the week. Another week or 2 will have enough cash to start the #lizardpies test using 1-2 contracts. After 8 weeks of being flat finally bringing in cash again to use for new trades.
I plan to try to take a few of the #fuzzy all the way to expiration just to see what kind of actual/real world returns you can get over a year. Currently looks around 100% annualized. With the exception of WDC. may end up closing that as soon as I can break even especially if it keeps dropping.
Have a great weekend 🙂
WYNN
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Next week’s naked 120’s look pretty safe so doubling up with spreads since it’s an IRA.
Sold WYNN DEC 28 2018 115.0/125.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.20
UNG
OLED
#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Booking this for safety since I’ve been overselling slightly…
Bought to Close OLED DEC 14 2018 101.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.30)
RTN
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Slowly but surely…
Bought to Close RTN DEC 21 2018 185.0/195.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .04 (sold for .73)
REGN
#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Still selling against Jan 2021 ITM bull put spreads to reduce basis if I eventually end up with the stock. Learned my lesson on this ticker to never try for that last dime. It can move bigly in a short time.
Bought to Close REGN DEC 14 2018 380.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.55)
Sold REGN DEC 21 2018 397.5 Call @ 2.10
#assignment KORS Apparently someone thinks…
#assignment KORS
Apparently someone thinks I want to be assigned on ITM puts. Assigned on a 55 put, cost basis is 53.50, KORS currently at 38.39, think I’ll have a COORS or two.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Dec 14th 2700 calls for .05. Stop level on the put spread is the expected move to the short put… EM is currently 24.00, so stop is 2604 for the 2580/2560 put spread. Unless we breach that level I will look to exit for .05 or .10. Sold condor yesterday for 1.05.
Good Morning everyone,
Very Sorry about how long I’ve been away. Hope you have been killing it. I’ll make a longer post a little later today telling you what I’ve been up to.
Kelly
XLE
Possible #LongCalls #LEAPS entry here. Trying to bottom and you could cover over 10 percent of LEAPS cost in the first week…
#closing #assignment AAPL Dec. 11,…
#closing #assignment AAPL
Dec. 11, I was assigned 100 shares from a 185/187.50 put spread that was to expire tomorrow. I sold the long put and sold a March 14, 170 call for 2.06. AAPL is a little over 170 so I closed the covered call. I have made $45 after all is said and done from a put spread I had written off as a loser. I closed today because I have a 180/190 expiring Dec. 21. That one will take a little longer to get back to even.
Both put spreads were post earnings trades.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 14th 2560/2580-2700/2720 condors for 1.05. Expire tomorrow.
Also, a 45-dte roll from last month…
BTC $SPX Jan 17th 2950/2970 call spreads for .20. Sold 11/20 in a condor for 3.00 (2420/2400 puts still active)
Rolled to Jan 17th 2800/2820 call spreads, sold today for 2.55.
SMH
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Another good week in this one. Not getting sold too hard anymore but not rallying either.
Bought to Close SMH DEC 14 2018 95.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .82)
Sold SMH DEC 21 2018 94.5 Calls @ .58
XBI
#LongCalls #LEAPS – In an IRA so rotating back and forth between spreads and naked to be able to overlap these by a few days. Next week’s spreads are safe so adding…
Sold XBI DEC 28 2018 82.5 Calls @ .51
Closing some BOIL
Had this order in to close for .05. Just got filled.
Bought to close $BOIL Dec 21 105 calls @ .05. Sold for 1.50 on 12/4.
Some more rollouts
Rolled the following short Dec in the money puts out to Jan:
$ATVI 12/21 50 puts out to 1/18/19 50 puts @ 1.06 credit
$GS 12/21 180 puts out to 1/11/19 180 puts (weekly to avoid earnings) @ 2.22 credit
$WYNN 12/21 120 puts out to 1/18/19 120 puts @ 1.78 credit
Calls sold
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $TQQQ Dec 21st 49 calls for .90
Sold $SQ Dec 21st 66 calls for .84
#earnings #ironcondor ADBE Sold Dec….
#earnings #ironcondor ADBE
Sold Dec. 21 225/230/265/270 for 1.29, right around the max moves, thanks Jeff.
OLED
#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Tomorrow looks good and next wek is getting some breathing room so adding the next batch…
Sold OLED DEC 28 2018 105.0 Calls @ 1.10
UPS Falling Knife
Throwing one out there at 10 delta. Strike is at a level the stock hasn’t been in around 6 years.
Sold $UPS Jul 19 75 puts @ 1.35.
EWW
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Slow day today…finally. 🙂 🙂
Bought to Close EWW DEC 21 2018 43.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .40)
Sold EWW JAN 4 2019 42.5 Calls @ .36
Rolling TNA
Rolled $TNA Dec 21 60 puts out to Jan 18 60 puts for 1.28 credit.
TQQQ
BTO January 18, 55 calls at 1.20 creating a 50/55 call spread against my January 2021 call position. This frees up a lot of margin and I can roll the spread if I need to.
#assignment SCCO I already owned…
#assignment SCCO
I already owned 50 shares in the copper miner (copper is important to batteries, solar and wind power so the price can only go up-riigghhht), assigned on a 40 put I’ve been trying to roll, cost basis of 151.667 shares is 41 after selling a Jan. 36 call.
#earnings #ironcondor COST sold Dec….
#earnings #ironcondor COST
sold Dec. 21, 210/215/240/245 for 1.05, right at the max moves, thanks for the data Jeff.
PVTL calls closed
#Earnings #CoveredCalls BTC $PVTL Dec 21st 21 covered calls for .05. Sold for .80 on Tuesday. Earning report has had little effect on the stock. Cost basis 19.00. Will continue to hold and sell calls.
COST earnings analysis
#Earnings $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC 3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97% Biggest DOWN
May 25, 2017 AC 1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC 2.43%
Sept. 29, 2016 AC 3.40%
May 25, 2016 AC 3.57% Biggest UP
March 2, 2016 AC -0.77%
Dec. 8, 2015 AC -5.41%
Avg (+ or -) 3.17%
Bias -0.75%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 229.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 220.17 to 237.83
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 221.75 to 236.25
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.0%): 215.33 to 242.67
Open for requests on other symbols.
ADBE earnings analysis
#Earnings $ADBE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 13, 2018 AC 2.29%
June 14, 2018 AC -2.43%
March 15, 2018 AC 3.05%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC 1.43%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -4.24%
June 20, 2017 AC 2.36%
March 16, 2017 AC 3.80%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -1.47%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC 7.11% Biggest UP
June 21, 2016 AC -5.72% Biggest DOWN
March 17, 2016 AC 3.84%
Dec. 10, 2015 AC 2.76%
Avg (+ or -) 3.38%
Bias 1.07%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 251.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 239.69 to 262.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 242.53 to 259.47
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.1%): 233.15 to 268.85
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX Nov 12th 2560/2580/2715/2735 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05
#coveredcallcampaign #closing LUV July 3,…
#coveredcallcampaign #closing LUV
July 3, Tradewise initiated a covered call in LUV. I closed it on my own today, making about $240 with premium and dividends. Their timing was right, but this could have been a really nice winner without the calls as it ran up 10 points or so last summer. I’m being cautious and getting some cash.
TRADES:
DBX BTO STOCK @23.00
SFIX BTO STOCK @22.33
TQQQ
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Stop set on next week’s short 54.0’s so adding some spreads since it’s in an IRA…
Sold TQQQ DEC 28 2018 52.0/58.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .72
TNA
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Stop set on next week’s short 66.5s so adding some spreads since it’s in an IRA…
Sold TNA DEC 28 2018 60.0/70.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .91
Another KOLD closed
#ContangoETFs BTC $KOLD Dec 21st 12 put for .80. Sold for 2.30 on 11/19.
TQQQ
Rolled my 60 calls in February 15, down to January 18, 50 calls for a credit of 1.90 because I am bearish on the market. I know we are up today but I think we are in a bear market if I am reading the charts correctly. If not, I think I can roll these for a 5cent to 10 cent credit and pick up a half point in the strike price with 2 years until expiration. I own the 60 calls in 2021.
UVXY
#shortstrangles GM Sold Jan. 18,…
#shortstrangles GM #rolling #shortputs AA
GM Sold Jan. 18, 33/38 strangle for 1.17.
AA rolled Jan. 38 put to February for .15, AA is at 29.
#fuzzy GILD 70/70 3 DTE…
GILD 70/70 3 DTE rolled out to 17 DTE for 0.53 credit. CB now 9.78 and 109 more weeks to go. This one already up 1.01 per contract if I closed it now.
EFA-Non US and Canada large caps
Looking to do something in January, over 15,000, January 18, 61 calls and 15,000 January 18, 61 puts were traded today. For the most part, not a lot of options are traded.
I bought a 59 put for 1.05, 13,000 of those were traded as well(1 for me).
#shortstock #coveredputs CAKE Sold 100…
#shortstock #coveredputs CAKE
Sold 100 shares short at 45.43, sold a Dec. 21, 45 put for .90.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 12th 2560/2580/2715/2735 condors for 1.05. Expire tomorrow.
TRADES:
SFIX 12/14/18 20.0 CALLS @.40
SFIX BTO STOCK @19.97
SFIX STO 12/21/18 22.0 CALLS @.40
SFIX STO 12/14/18 19.0 PUTS @.55
UVXY
Calls closed
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Closed $SQ Dec 14th 66 calls for .37. Sold yesterday for .72.
Closed $TQQQ Dec 14th 47 calls for .85. Sold yesterday for .80.
Slight profit and about breakeven on what I sold yesterday, since both very close to being breached this morning. Will replace on next big move.
Closing WTW
I rolled this on 11/23, closing it now for an overall profit.
Bought to close $WTW Dec 21 49 puts @ 2.00. Rolled from 11/23 50 puts. Total profit .60.
#shortstrangles CAT #shortcallspreads SPY TastyTrade…
#shortstrangles CAT #shortcallspreads SPY
TastyTrade idea sold Jan. 105/140 for 2.13
Tradewise idea (modified a little) Jan. 4 273/276 call spread for .55
DUST
Closing RH calls
Bought to close $RH Jan 18 165 calls @ 1.35. Sold for 3.00 on 12/4. Being strict about my 50% profit targets in this market.
TRADES: Risky
SFIX STO 12/14/18 18.0 NTM PUTS @.61
PBYI STO 12/14/18 23.0 NTM PUTS @.55
PBYI STO 12/21/18 24.0 ATM PUTS @1.25
Rolling ROKU
Rolled short in the money $ROKU Dec 21 40 puts out to Jan 18 40 puts for .92 credit. When I entered this trade on 11/8, I got 1.43 credit so total taken in is now 2.35 bringing my basis on the stock, if assigned, to 37.65.
#earnings SFIX Couldn’t get filled…
#earnings SFIX
Couldn’t get filled on a 20/35 strangle yesterday, down 27% to the 18s right now.
AMAT
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Booking these extra sales just in case the rally holds…
Bought to Close AMAT DEC 14 2018 37.0/42.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .08 (sold for .46)
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Sold next week’s a little early so booking this week for safety.
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 14 2018 55.0 Puts @ .23 (sold for 1.72)
KOLD closed
#ContangoETFs
Closed $KOLD Dec 21st 8 put for .20 and 9 put for .25. Both sold for 1.20 each on 11/19, as part of a roll campaign from ITM $BOIL calls.
#assignment AAPL #coveredcalls Assigned 100…
#assignment AAPL #coveredcalls
Assigned 100 shares at 187.50, from a spread, sold the 185 put at 16.30 for a cost basis of 170.53. Sold Dec. 14, 170 call for 2.06. AAPL currently going for 168 and change.
PVTL covered Calls
#Earnings #CoveredCalls Sold $PVTL Dec 21st 21 calls for .80. This order has been in for a couple weeks, but only today did it finally fill, and earnings are tonight. Was assigned via 22.5 puts on 9/20. This sale brings my cost basis down to 18.95.
OLED TNA UNG
#LongCalls #LongPuts #LEAPS #CoveredCalls – Out most of the day but got a few trades in…
OLED: Adding…
Sold OLED DEC 21 2018 104.0 Calls @ 1.05
TNA: Covered calls…
Bought to Close TNA DEC 14 2018 65.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 2.36)
Sold TNA JAN 18 2019 60.0 Calls @ 2.15
UNG:Sold against long puts…
Bought to Close UNG DEC 14 2018 31.5 Puts @ .05 (sold for .41)
PBYI Just noticed that it…
PBYI Just noticed that it hit a new high today, 24.87, since the beginning of November. Have stock, short calls and puts.
TRADES:
DBX STO 12/14/18 22.5 CALLS @.40 wcin Will cover if necessary.
DBX STO 12/21/18 23.5 CALLS @.40 COVERED
BTO STOCK @23.77 An add to sell premium.
PBYI STO 12/21/18 24.0 CALLS @1.30
PBYI STO 12/14/18 25.0 CALLS @.55
WDC #doubledip Rolled the 11…
WDC #doubledip #fuzzy
Rolled the 11 DTE 40/47 down to 11 DTE 42.5 for 1.04 credit. cb now 20.09. 109 weeks to manage but this one has been such a dog lately I will probably scratch it once I can break even.
AAPL stock
#LongStock #Dividends
Bought $AAPL stock for 168.00. Starter position. Seems like a possible bottom, so reentering the stock after selling my position on October 5.
TQQQ calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $TQQQ Dec 14th 47 calls for .80
Long FXB
With the pound taking a beating, I decided to sell some premium via put spreads in a couple of IRA accounts. The buying power of naked puts would be much too high so I bought cheap wings to create a synthetic short put with a potential 11% ROC in 40 days. Delta of the short strike is 30.
SQ calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $SQ Dec 14th 66 calls for .72.
SPX 1-dte cosed
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Dec 10th 2710 calls for .05, and the 25120/2490 put spreads for .10. Condors sold for 1.00 on Friday. Next one will be sold tomorrow for Wednesday expiration.
SFIX earnings analysis
#Earnings $SFIX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day AND 5-day moves over its entire history (only 4 quarters). I included both 1 & 5 because of the significant differences in the moves.
NOTE: Stock has had wide swings in the days after earnings, and in last few days. This morning it was up 5.5% only 15 minutes into today.
Oct. 1, 2018 AC 1-day: -35.15%; 5-day: -41.07% Biggest DOWN
June 7, 2018 AC 1-day: +20.21%; 5-day: +22.42%
March 12, 2018 AC 1-day: +3.77%; 5-day: -15.42%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC 1-day: +39.39%; 5-day: -0.57% Biggest UP initially, but all given back in 5 days.
Avg (+ or -) 1-day : 24.63%; 5-day: 19.99%
Bias 1-day: +7.06%; 5-day: -8.66%, positive bias in 1 day; negative bias in 5 days.
With stock at 28.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday’s expiration per TOS): 21.87 to 34.13
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1-day: 21.10 to 34.90; 5-day: 22.44 to 33.56
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 1-day (39.4%): 16.97 to 39.03; 5-day (41.1%): 16.50 to 39.50
Open for requests on other symbols.
PCG 17 puts expiring, thanks…
PCG 17 puts expiring, thanks @optioniceman
Why I sell options-last 2…
Why I sell options-last 2 days whipsaws, dow down 800 points yesterday, recovered. Today down another 485. All of my tickers are down but because of theta decay my core account is up. Wrong on direction but still making money.
I salute those of you that successfully trade directionally but these are the times that make me realize that being the house always wins in the long run!
However, some stability would be nice…….have a great weekend.
UVXY spread
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY Dec 21st 50/60 call spreads for 7.00. Adding to my position I started for 4.35. This is entirely ITM, but I feel volatility will be quieting into Christmas, and a drift back below 50 in reasonable to believe in 2 weeks. Even without a true Santa Claus rally this can happen. Looking at the VIX and UVXY today, they’ve been drifting lower this afternoon, even as SPX continued lower. If I am wrong, it’s manageable as a spread.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 10th 2490/2510-2710/2730 condors for 1.00. Expire Monday. Filled on spike higher. If I were selling now I would shift the whole thing higher.
