#shortputs #pietrades AMAT
Rolled April 20 50 put to May 18 50 put for .94. I’ll be away from the screen next week, moving some positions to May.
Recent Updates Page 331
March Jobs Report
#Jobs Reverse of last month: Added jobs LOWER than expected, but wage growth was stronger. Reversion to the mean?
+103,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs 178K expected
Unemployment holds steady at 4.1%
U6 unemployment at 8.0%, down by .2
Wages up 0.3%, reflecting 2.7% annualized
Labor force participation 62.9%, down 0.1
Jan revised down from 239k to 176k
Feb revised up from 313k to 326k
/es and SPX.
Looks like the big players want to rip the market down one day, then take it back up next few days. New range is 2560 to 2671. That’s a decent sized range to play ping pong but appears it will happen for a while.
Futures down 35 on /ES and /YM 384.
#ironcondor COST Sold May 18,…
#ironcondor COST
Sold May 18, 160/170/200/210 for 1.17, stock around 185
#spx Thought I would try…
Thought I would try a trade. Poor timing to have bought a put. I have an April 06, does it expire in AM or end of day?
Sold long SPX calls
#SPXcampaign I didn’t get filled at the highs so I’m selling half this order since we could be going lower. More likely to happen is a bounce, as my timing on these intraday swings has been horrendous for the last few weeks.
Sold to close $SPX May 18th 2770/2790 call spreads for 3.75. Bought for 1.50 on Monday. Keeping the other half into expiration, but now the cost of the full position has been covered.. Thanks @mortlightman for the trade idea.
Also, sold to open May 4th 2810/2835 call spreads for 1.45.
DG
#SyntheticStock – Another small roll…
Rolled DG APR 6 2018 93.0 Calls to APR 20 2018 94.0 Calls @ .10 debit
EWW
#SyntheticStock – Trying to keep these rolls to within a couple weeks even if it’s a small debit. Plenty of weekly premium brought in recently to use a little for the roll.
Rolled EWW APR 6 2018 51.0 Calls to APR 20 2018 51.5 Calls @ .08 debit
XOM
#SyntheticStock – Rolling the weekly out and up. Small debit but picking up another 71 cents of upside while staying in the week prior to earnings.
Rolled XOM APR 6 2018 74.0 Calls to APR 20 2018 75.0 Calls @ .29 debit (originally sold for .60)
NUGT call closed
#ContangoETFs $NUGT and $DUST have been kind of dull in recent weeks, so I’m just watching theta do its work on short calls in both.
Closed on GTC order: NUGT June 15th 47 call for .20. Sold for 2.46 on Dec 26th.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Still getting pressed on some call spreads so rolling. I’m not selling put spreads at these levels… I expect another dip, perhaps not as low as Monday; but I’m waiting for a pullback or VIX below 18.00 before I’ll start getting bullish. Jobs report is tomorrow and no matter what the results, it may be an excuse to sell. I also will be selling half of my double-sized LONG call spread today at or near a triple.
Stopped: $SPX Apr 13th 2670/2695 call spreads for 11.50. Sold for 3.75 on Tuesday. No roll yet.
#CondorRoll: from calls stopped yesterday. (these are the only puts I’m adding)
Sold Apr 20th 2540/2565/2750/2775 condors of 7.05.
Closed Apr 13th 2720/2745 call spreads for 4.80. Sold for 3.65 on 3/28. No roll yet.
Again, JOBS report tomorrow could be a trigger for panic selling, or panic buying.
Back from vacation
I picked a ridiculous week to not be trading (well I did get a couple of small adjustments in). Maybe it was better–I may have overtraded through Mon-Wed.
Now I’m just going through things and will start cleaning stuff up.
Took off my Apr AZO short 580 put for 1.25. Sold for 6.20 on 2/27.
I’m still short a Sep 500 put.
LUV
#SyntheticStock – Since I already sold next week I’m booking these just for safety. Another big up day tomorrow and the position would end up way too short…
Bought to Close LUV APR 6 2018 57.5 Calls @ .21 (sold for .54)
AZO
#BullCallSpread – Rolling the short call side down into strength for a nice credit. Narrowing the spread from 100 to 50. Getting close to a freebie with weekly sales against.
Rolled AZO JAN 18 2019 760.0 Call to JAN 18 2019 710.0 Call @ 14.30 credit
Position is now:
Jan 2019 660/710 BuCS @ 11.50 debit
#pietrade XBI selling into weakness,…
XBI selling into weakness, 22 DTE 81 put for 1.02.
BTC the ANDV 22 DTE 93 put for 0.35, sold for 1.1 or so off multiple rolls. My cost basis was 90.78 so I had a lot of built up credit. Reload on a pull back.
#earnings #ironcondor FDX March 20…
#earnings #ironcondor FDX
March 20 sold a 225/230/270/275 April 20 earnings iron condor for 1.10. It went as low as 228 during these crazy days, decided to exit today for .70.
FAS
Rolled my April 13, 65 call up to April 20, 66 call for a credit of .17 cents.
#pietrades and #supercharger trades Finally…
#pietrades and #supercharger trades
Finally 2 positive weeks in a row despite being assigned on final SVXY 50 puts.
TNA #supercharger 5/18 55/60 for 4.37 debit
ERX #supercharger 4/27 20/25 for 4.55 debit
ERX #fuzzy rolled 8 DTE out to 22 DTE 25.5 for 0.4 credit. Cost basis now 7.82
FAS CC rolled 67 CC expires tomorrow for 8 DTE for 1.12 credit. CB now 65.13
Assigned SVXY 50 put for 48.75, sold for 11.53 ouch but don’t see SVXY moving for a while so unloaded and used what little cash was left in this account for the ERX trade above. Left just enough to convert to a #fuzzy if needed.
#pietrades bunch of FAS, ERX, CC expiring tomorrow. Should all go out at full profit unless there is another stupid tweet.
Also some expiring next week. Will reload the ladders as they expire on Monday.
Hope everyone has a good expiration and is enjoying Mr. Whippy’s the market, not the ice cream shop although it is delicious!
Good Morning, Chinese market today….
Good Morning, Chinese market today. Chop Chop
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign I do not see clear skies ahead, but I still gotta keep call spreads from becoming ITM. I legged out of this one, something I rarely do. But when this market moves up or down so clearly into the last hour, there’s little chance of a reversal.
Closed $SPX Apr 6th 2650/2675 call spreads for 6.60. Sold for 3.65 on Monday.
Will look to roll on the next extreme, whether it be a high or low extreme.
TQQQ
STO June 15, 182 calls against some of my short puts @2.60
We have an ice cream…
We have an ice cream shop at the beach called Mr. Whippy’s, I think that could also be the name of the market!
TRTN
#CoveredCalls – STO Oct 19 40 CC @ 1.80 shares at 30.67. Ran this one last month closed for 60% profit. (Ed: calling this my “yoyo” trade. Not worthy of a hashtag, ha!)
MU
#Fuzzy – BTO MU Jul20’18 52.5/52.5/50 Fuzzy for 3.80. Seems like the market is BTFD, possibly gonna cheer up soon? This synthetic position is unhedged at the moment. Dan Fitzpatrick featured this one in his free chart last night and brought it to my attention, so I will have to give him credit for the ticker.
#earnings RH I sold an…
#earnings RH
I sold an April 20, 75 straddle for $1425, there was a good reason premiums were that high, RH ran up above break even of 90 to 95, has come back down to earth around 87, this might work out after all
Good morning
This should be fun today.
#AlligatorFuzzy Ok, here’s the latest…
#AlligatorFuzzy
Ok, here’s the latest entry into the #Fuzzy family.
Backing up a bit, there’s something every #Fuzzy has in common: A combo trade of a 2-part synthetic (long or short) coupled with protection for full risk definition. 3 legs, all the same expiration.
A Regular Fuzzy (the original one named after @fuzzballl) then uses short dated short hedges for trade debit recovery and weekly income.
An Atomic Fuzzy eschewed the short dated short hedges for a double size hedge using the same expiration as the core fuzzy–solving the problem of runover hedges.
Regular Fuzzy Pros: Efficient use of capital, risk defined, weekly income
Regular Fuzzy Cons: Protection very expensive in high vol, hedges frequently get runover
Atomic Fuzzy Pros: Efficient use of capital, risk defined, partial-to-full financing of protection (particularly useful in high vol)
Atomic Fuzzy Cons: No weekly income, which increases directional risk
Combining these two trades into a new trade solves the cons on both trades–it is essentially a Fuzzy Diagonal. There are two versions, an #AlligatorTrap is bullish, an #AlligatorSnap is bearish.
This trade uses both a long dated hedge (matching the core expiration and quantity) and short dated weekly hedges. The trade, in essence, has a triple hedge! Hedge #1: Core protection, Hedge #2: A credit spread using the core expiration, Hedge #3 A short dated short hedge. Believe it or not…perfectly legal in a 401K. I will be attaching a slide showing risk graph setups, a proper diagonal setup on the risk graph should significantly reduce the hedge runovers.
Here is the exact trade setup that I did last week for a long on SPY (captured on the attached slide)
SPY May monthly: +263c/-263p/+259p (this is the core fuzzy) @5.62 debit, then add a CCS 269/273, same qty, @1.55 cr. Then enter the weekly income hedge: Apr 6 270c @.63.
Particular setup rules: 1. The 3-leg core debit = “X” 2. Use ATM + X for the anchor short leg of the CCS. Those 5 legs should give you a “ledge” type risk graph where the ledge is solidly above 0. Finally add in the short dated short hedge–the best graphs work up with the calls at the same strike as the CCS anchor on the long dated core, or higher.
Everything can be reversed for a bear trade. Here’s an Alligator Snap (bear)trade I did on QQQ this morning:
Jun -157c/+157p/+160c @ 5.09, 152/147 PCS @ 1.34 cr ($157-$5=$152 for anchor). Then an Apr 6 152 short put @ .77. This puts the starting trade debit at $2.98. Accrued credits on rolling the short dated hedge will attack that trade debit. The bear side of this trade, due to put skew, will allow for more lucrative put rolls in an uptrending market.
So, in conclusion, this trade brings the best parts of the regular fuzzy (weekly income) and atomic fuzzy (protection financing) together. Check out the attached slide for risk graph setups, let me know your questions. I have about 8 of these trades on right now, 6 traps and 2 snaps. I’ve already rolled short hedges from last week.
Thanks to @MamaCash for the creative name…I was just going to call it a Fuzzy Diagonal….but Alligators are way more fun 🙂
2 of 3 of 5: Not yet!
Y’all know I’m keenly watching for 1-standard deviation up moves in SPX. We need 3 1SD up moves in a 5-bar window (for historical rally confirmations). We got one on Thursday. Today’s slipped through the fingers, darnit. We got a .933–the rule is it must cross 1.0. Wed and Thur still fall into the 5-bar window.
#AlligatorFuzzy anyone? I have a new #Fuzzy! I believe this is the best one yet. The love-child of regular fuzzy and atomic fuzzy. I will do a full write up on it maybe later tonight. I really think you will find it very compelling.
Sue
#ironcondor AMZN March 28, sold…
#ironcondor AMZN
March 28, sold April 20 IC for 2.00, closed today for .84. IV is still really high but I’m taking the gain.
TQQQ bearish fuzzy
STC January 2019 Bearish Fuzzy. Bought for 27.50 and STC for 29.55
STC 165 puts
BTC 165 calls
STC 170 calls
BTC April 20145 puts
#shortstrangles EWZ TastyTrade idea, sold…
#shortstrangles EWZ
TastyTrade idea, sold May 18, 42/47 strangle for 1.78
XBI
#SyntheticStock – Looks like it’s easing below the 200ma so I’m selling just above it…
Bought to Close XBI APR 6 2018 89.0 Calls @ .06 (sold for .83)
Sold XBI APR 13 2018 86.0 Calls @ 1.05
AZO
#BullCallSpreads – Letting this week’s expire so selling next week…cost basis reduction in the Jan Bull Call Spread…
Sold AZO APR 13 2018 640.0/670.0 Bear Call Spread @ 2.55
REGN
#SyntheticStock – With the weak market I’m rolling this thing back in and down. Hopefully can get it off the books a week sooner freeing up an extra sale.
Rolled REGN APR 20 2018 350.0 Calls to APR 13 2018 340.0 Calls @ .36 credit
#shortputs AMAT Sold April 20,…
#shortputs AMAT
Sold April 20, 50 put for .76
TSLA
#ShortStrangle – Had a one lot strangle where I closed the put side as the stock started imploding. Continuing to sell the call side while waiting to add the put side back in at some point.
Sold TSLA APR 13 2018 290.0 Call @ 1.45
PYPL
#SyntheticStock – Going out another week…
Bought to Close PYPL APR 6 2018 78.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .80)
Sold PYPL APR 13 2018 76.0 Calls @ .94
LUV
#SyntheticStock – Order in to cover this week’s at a nickel. Selling next week into the tiny up move…
Sold LUV APR 13 2018 56.0 Calls @ .68
VXX
#BearPutSpreads – Selling against my Jan 2019 50/30 Bear Put Spreads….trying to gradually cover the debit.
Sold VXX APR 13 2018 46.0/41.0 Bull Put Spreads @ .63
OLED
#SyntheticStock – Selling well below the core but still bringing in enough to cover the repair of an old earnings strangle. Double sale with this week’s still running…
Sold OLED APR 13 2018 103.0 Calls @ 1.95
CRUS
#SyntheticStock #LongCalls – If I can close for a nickel on Mon or Tue and get next week’s sale going it’s well worth it to pay up I think…
Bought to Close CRUS APR 6 2018 43.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .50)
Sold CRUS APR 13 2018 40.5 Calls @ .65
XLY
#SyntheticStock – I’m going to keep aggressively selling the rips for at least another week especially while premiums are so juicy…
Bought to Close XLY APR 6 2018 103.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .73)
Sold XLY APR 13 2018 100.5 Calls @ .93
VXX this morning
#shortputspread AAPL Tradewise recommendation, April…
#shortputspread AAPL
Tradewise recommendation, April 27, 160/162.50. They see earnings on April 30 as supporting the price that has dropped 10%.
XBI
#Fuzzy – BTC XBI Apr06’18 91 calls for 0.04, sold for 0.46. Leaving my synthetic position unhedged for now (although waiting has not worked well lately!)
Could more pain help?
I thought this was an interesting view on the current #Market
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Spent the morning doing mostly the reverse of yesterday… putting on call spreads and taking off put spreads.
Closed $SPX Apr 6th 2475/2450 put spreads for 1.30. Sold yesterday for 2.20.
Sold Apr 6th 2650/2675 call spreads for 3.65
Bought to Open Apr 13th 2450/2425 LONG put spreads for 2.30.
Sold May 4th 2760/2785 call spreads for 1.70.
Stopped Apr 27th 2460/2435 put spreads for 3.80. Sold Thursday for 1.75.
#ReverseRoll Sold Apr 13th 2670/2695 call spreads for 3.75.
AMZN
STO April 20, 1050/1100 bull put spread @ 1.20
Looks like I was too early on this one.
#supercharger this is the ITM…
#supercharger this is the ITM vertical debit spreads.
The adjustment to ERX yesterday is already paying off. With only a 0.24 increase in ERX, the long has gained and the short has decreased in time value so overall profit $750 on 10 contracts. Technically it is now a #fuzzy and that appears to be the way to adjust one that goes against you quickly and easily. Of course it has already moved through my short strike but will be easy to roll next week and have 41 weeks left of selling now to reduce cost basis. In 8 weeks should be a risk free trade.
Of all my positions yesterday, this one was the least underwater even though it was the biggest down percentage wise.
I will keep experimenting with these through all market conditions and see what is the best way to adjust them, what is the ideal time to put them on, and which conditions are ideal for them.
Will keep you posted as to how they work out longer term but think this may be a very viable trading idea. I may even buy the course, only $39 to see what the official recommendations are but with the trading brain power we have here I think we can figure it out! I also don’t think the course goes into adjusting, I think they just take them off at a set loss point.
#shortputs FEYE Rolled April 20,…
#shortputs FEYE
Rolled April 20, 17 put to May 4 for .40
Good Morning
Good Morning
VXX part 2
Sold $UVXY Apr 20th 26 calls for 1.45
Closed UVXY May 18th 20 call for 4.00. Sold for 2.50 on March 19th. This is my only position ITM. Closed one today and will close the other, and roll them to Sept higher strike.
Bought $VXX May 18th 30 puts for .05. I already had a couple of these; looking like a loss but why not add a handful more to make it a lottery ticket?
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX April 13th 2745/2770 call spreads for .50. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 6.30 on 3/26… the call side was sold for 2.95.
#shortputs CRUS On March 16,…
#shortputs CRUS
On March 16, on a Motley fool recommendation(to buy the stock, not the option), I sold an April 20 40/45 put spread, just threw the 40 dollar, 40 put in for margin purposes, the short put being 1.85. My timing was impeccable as CRUS illogically is now at 38.75. I rolled the short 45 to June for a credit of 1.08, sold the April 40 long put for 2.35, staying naked on the June 45 short put. Of course, if CRUS was a buy at 45….
On the bright side…
Market Seasonality: April has closed green for the $SPX in 11 of the last 12 yrs w/ avg $SPX return coming in at 2.3%. Worth noting that Energy in April closed green in 7 of the last 10 yrs for an avg return of 3.71%.
— Stephanie Link (@Stephanie_Link) April 2, 2018
Another Downside Warning possible?
#VIXIndicator We exceeded 25% above Thursday’s close which is an additional signal. Secondary signals/warnings like this can sometimes signal a bottom, but it’s impossible to be sure. For those keeping track on this double-header correction:
1/16: First signal of trouble ahead/cancel Upside Warning
1/26: SPX high
1/29: Downside WARNING
1/30: 2nd warning
2/2: 3rd warning
2/5: six warnings in one day (a record)
2/9: SPX low
2/23: downside warning canceled
2/28: New downside WARNING
3/22: 2nd and 3rd warnings
Today: SPX lowest since 2/9
ETP
#ShortPuts
STO May18 16 puts @ 1.20
TQQQ
STO January 2019, 55 puts @4.70
Thanks to Fuzzball for the idea. I think I am going to stop selling puts or doing anything until I feel we have reached a bottom.
Who broke the market today?
#pietrades and rolling with some good premiums.
ANDV rolled 11 DTE 95 put to 25 DTE 93 put for 0.25 credit. Cost basis 90.78 if assigned.
NSC rolled 11 DTE 131 put to 25 DTE 128 put for 0.32 credit. CB 126.63 if assigned.
I will probably #jadelizard these if we get a bounce in next few days and also UTX but want better prices on a rebound.
ERX 21/26 4 DTE under water. Still some time value in the short option so will wait and roll later in the week. I will likely #fuzzy it to the Jan 19 call 20 strike, then just sell weekly options against it. With 41.5 weeks left would only need 0.19 per week to scratch the trade to zero so will probably sell OTM to give it a little room. I can roll the long option out and down for 4.15 right now and gain 41 weeks. 2-3 strikes oTM usually brings in 0.6-1 each week so this could be a good longer term trade.
Actually as I am typing this ERX going to parity, will roll it now.
New trade is a #fuzzy Jan 19 call 20 strike, rolled for 4.25 debit and the short 26 call rolled to next week 25.5 for 0.45. Total CB now 8.22 for 10 contracts. Work it down each week from here.
Trade wars should spike the price of commodities including oil so this should rebound.
SPX
BTO May 18 2770/2790 1.55 & 1 for 1.50
A Jeff trade, looking for a big run up. When I can cash out I will close 1 and let 1 run if conditions warrant
VXX gamin’
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY Apr 20th 25 call for 1.47.
BTC $UVXY Apr 20th 14 puts for .11. Sold for 1.05 on Mar 20th.
BTC $VXX Apr 13th 38.5 puts for .04. Sold for 1.10 on Mar 20th.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Apr 6th 2475/2450 put spreads for 2.20. This is the spread I took profits on this morning, closing for .55. Now I’m using same strikes again for a new trade.
TQQQ
STO January 2019, 70 puts @6.90 with stock at 131
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Going up and out to Sep for this one…
Sold UVXY SEP 21 2018 30.0/40.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.20
#shortcallspreads TSLA Sold April 20…
#shortcallspreads TSLA
Sold April 20 290/300 for 1.18
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign
BTC $SPX Apr 19th 2820/2845 call spreads for .25. Sold for 1.95 on Mar 21st.
BTC $SPX Apr 19th 2825/2850 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.65 on Mar 19th.
Whipsaw carries on
#SPXcampaign $SPX It was nerve-wracking selling calls on Thursday, but this approach is what’s needed with a VIX that can’t get far away from 20.00 in either direction. I closed out my Apr 6th spreads (the calls much too early), and now looking to pick the intraday low to add another put spread.
BTC Apr 6th 2725/2750 call spreads for 1.35. Sold for 3.25 on Thursday.
BTC Apr 6th 2475/2450 put spreads for .55. Sold for 2.80 on March 23rd.
STO May 4th 2400/2375 put spreads for 1.70.
Econ Calendar for week of 4/2/18
Be sure to periodically click Home/REFRESH to keep Bistro features updated.
Jobs Report is Friday at 8:30am ET.
Good Morning
Good Morning
Taking the ITM vertical debt…
Taking the ITM vertical debt spread idea a little farther, here is an example. Best returns appear to be on the leveraged products but higher risk, obvious with the higher premiums. Here is a TQQQ example. 10 point spread, 20 DTE, 10 lot $1350 profit, max loss 8650 if you don’t manage it, and it is 33 points ITM now. Could it hit the short strike, possibly but would require more than a Feb 6 event to get there.
The more I look at these, the more I like. Easy to roll to #fuzzy if needed. Set up a ladder and would be a good income stream. Thoughts, other comments, see anything I am missing? I have an ERX one on now, it was challenged last week but never hit the break even point. I will likely roll it 3 weeks out this Thurs. or Fri. to avoid the assignment fees as long as it will close at or a few pennies shy of 5. If not will let it expire.
If it works I think we should call it a #supercharger
Wife is already asleep, daughter…
Wife is already asleep, daughter has a friend over so looking at some possible trade ideas. Taking the ITM debit spread a step further here are some numbers to consider. Based on closing prices all 22 DTE so we are comparing apples to apples. TNA as example, this is leveraged but with excellent weekly premiums. 10 contracts on all to keep the numbers consistent. These are all about 6 points ITM on the call side or 6 points OTM for the puts.
50/60 vertical debit spread cost 8.95 for a 10 point spread at expiration. Max profit $1050. Max loss $8950 but this can be converted. 11.7% ROC for a 140.4% annualized return.
60 strike CC 58.22. Max profit $1780. Max loss 58,220 for 3% ROC or 36% annualized.
60 put requires full cash secured because leveraged. 54,471 at risk for $1020 max profit, 1.87% return or 22% annualized.
All could be rolled or hedged if needed.
I am going to experiment more with these, like the idea, the returns, limited risk and can be done in a smaller account. Also could set up a ladder for an income stream. Right now have ERX going, may add FAS and TNA in small contract size in a few weeks.
Expiration
$SPX 2585/2610 What a year and it is only three months long.
Have a great Easter/Passover. Three days to enjoy on hopefully, a high note for all.
Thanks for all you help.
XBI
#Fuzzy – STO XBI Apr06’18 91 calls for 0.47.
Have a nice holiday everyone!
Have a nice long weekend
Back on Monday.
Happy Easter!
Enjoy the long weekend everyone! Resting up…16 underlyings with expirations next week. Gonna be fun!
Options Bistro 