Looks like we’re in for a bumpy ride.
Daily Archives: Tuesday, November 8, 2016
#futures Incredible spike down and…
#futures
Incredible spike down and still going down. Gold up.
Tomorrow will be the proverbial interesting times.
/ES /VX
Took off part my /ES downside hedge yesterday (short future/short put) leaving me with a short Dec 2140 call sold for 21.50. Just for fun I’m shorting a Dec VIX future against this position. One side has to do ok on a big move either way…or…best case scenario is a volatility collapse with no associated market movement.
Can’t resist…gotta do something for the big event this evening. BTW…tastytrade doing a special this evening at 6pm central as first polls close.
SPY My roll of the…
SPY
My roll of the dice for tomorrow Followed at TT Nov. 11 206.50/214/214.221.50 for 3.78 and bought a Nov. 18 214.50 call. Last week I bought an SPX Nov. 9 1950/1900 armageddon put spread for .80.
SPX Position Chart updated
#SPXcampaign I included positions traded today as well. I have not yet connected all the rolls with arrows.
This is my third day straight of closing spreads close to expiry at the worst price of the day. It is quite frustrating, but part of trading. It means I will have to sell more roll-spreads to make up for the huge premium I paid to exit.
I have closed my Nov 9th 2150/2175, but will be leaving on the Nov 9th 2165/2180. One reason is that it is only a 15-point spread, which will mean even if it’s fully ITM it will be easy to roll to my usual 25-point width.
If Trump somehow pulls it out, OR if it is too close to call, we’ll go down… question is, how far and how fast? I want to be clear that I’m not commenting on my political leanings. It is just that the markets have made it clear: a Hillary win is bullish, Trump is bearish. And it seems very likely Clinton will win. If she does, I believe we will rally but I will be looking to fade it. If VIX drops below 13.59 (from the #VIXIndicator), I will look to be bullish.
$SVXY – change in aggressiveness…
$SVXY – noting a change in aggressiveness of the calls buyers. The stock just rebounded back over 74 but while the quote on the Nov 11 78.0 calls was 2.00/2.30 earlier, it is now 1.65/2.20.
As for the potential election move, I think a Clinton win is already baked into the market after yesterday’s big move and this morning’s follow thru rally.
I am positioned with giant SVXY strangles for this week. The closest short Puts are at 59.0 and the closest short calls are at 76.0. Of course I picked up a major new long stock position last Friday at 65 so the call side is not an issue for me.
Unless the market gets frisky late today I’m probably done trading until after the election results are in.
$MYL #CoveredCalls – with the…
$MYL #CoveredCalls – with the stock moving up today –
Sold MYL Nov 11 2016 40.0 Calls @ 0.39
Sold MYL Nov 26 2016 42.5 Calls @ 0.25
$CVS #ShortPuts – so …….
$CVS #ShortPuts – so …. I forgot about an old #FallingKnife order I had in and I sold some CVS Dec 16 2016 75.0 Puts at 5.60 on the opening this morning with the stock at 69.51.
To offset this trade and some old Nov 80 short puts I still have, I sold some calls:
Sold CVS DEC 23 2016 80.0 Calls @ 0.52
Sold CVS JAN 20 2017 80.0 Calls @ 0.97
Sold CVS JAN 20 2017 82.5 Calls @ 0.53
SPX reverse roll
#SPXcampaign The Comey letter on Sunday changed everything, so call spreads sold Friday are getting crushed. I’m rolling this one before it gets ATM, as I cannot risk an explosive rally tomorrow.
BTC $SPX Nov 9th 2150/2175 call spreads for 12.75. Sold for 2.15 on Friday.
STO $SPX Nov 23rd 2085/2060 put spreads for 3.55, 2x position size, as partial roll. I would like to sell the call side of this roll tomorrow.
Head spinning bullishness
#Market #SPXcampaign If Hillary wins tonight, there is the chance of a very large explosion of a rally tomorrow. I am thus rolling out of my Nov 9th 2150/2175 call spread. Been trying to get out since we went positive, but no breaks yet in the move up.
DUST calls
#ContangoETFs
STO DUST Nov 11th 48 calls for 1.10
STO DUST Jan 20th 60 call for 4.50 (highest strike)
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 2230/2255 call spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2132.
PCLN
Up 100 today!
$NFLX #CoveredPuts – Sold NFLX…
$NFLX #CoveredPuts – Sold NFLX Nov 11 2016 119.0 Puts @ 0.60.
$SVXY #CoveredCall – Sold 1…
$SVXY #CoveredCalls – Sold 1 SVXY Nov 11 2016 76.0 Call @ 2.50 with the stock at 72.04.
4 days until expiration.
JAZZ earnings
#Earnings STO $JAZZ Nov 11th 95 puts for .90. Working to sell 115 calls, too.
Biggest UP move: 5.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.4%, Average move: 2.9%. This trade is 9.5% OTM.
DISH earnings
#Earnings STO $DISH Nov 11th 53/59 strangles for 1.30. Biggest UP move: 6.0%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.3%, Average move: 2.6%. These strikes are both 5.3% OTM.
REGN adjustment
Rolled 355 short call out to next week’s 357.5 @ 1.00 credit. Still short against a Dec 9th 365 put.
CMG adjustment
Rolled 362.5 short call out to next week’s 365 @ even. Trying to get a little closer to the money. Sold against a longer term short put.
$SVXY #ShortStrangles #VXXGame – premiums…
$SVXY #ShortStrangles #VXXGame – premiums are utterly amazing on these instruments the last two days. Went the strangle route this morning –
Sold SVXY Nov 18 2016 45/85 Strangles @ 0.55 with the stock at 71.25 .
Edit: Oops this was the Nov 18 contract. Corrected the post.
Actually not as a great trade but it will still work.
SPX put spreads
Premium high this week.
STO Nov 9 2035/2025 put spread for 0.95
STO Nov 11 2020/2010 put spread for 0.80
These “look” safe, can’t see basically a 90 and 100 point crash in this short time span, but hey, what do I know. I thought my calls were safe yesterday and they weren’t.
CVS
Sold to open, January 65 puts @1.50
Options Bistro 