Jeff 5:39 am on Thursday, March 2, 2017
Tags: SPXcampaign ( 2,265 )

SPX chart updated

#SPXcampaign Too many trades and rolls yesterday to post. Let me know if you have questions on any of my or your positions.

The Webinar on this campaign has been delayed as I refine the strategy based on recent experience with extremely bullish markets. Yesterday was more evidence that work is needed!

rck89 7:06 am on Thursday, March 2, 2017

Jeff – I got caught flat footed on an SPX trade i.e, SPX 2335/2365 BeCS. I’ve now rolled this position probably from late Jan to Mar 8th. I begin rolling with credits, now I’m rolling with debits! So at what point do you stop rolling and just take the loss? I now own: STO SPX Mar 8 2335/2365 BeCS @ 22.184 cr with the current market somewhere between 26.9-29.70! Stupid…I know, but I really thought we’d get a pullback long before now! Your thoughts please. Thanks.
- Jeff 7:29 am on Thursday, March 2, 2017
  
  I roll up every week 5 – 10 points, and add a put spread to make up for the debit. I keep doing that until I am OTM. I close an ITM spread one week before expiry, and then roll it one week further.
  
  I’m attaching an example from last summer. May take awhile to decipher… ORANGE are CALLS and RED are PUTS. The far right column shows the cost to exit. You can see that I usually used two spreads to make up the debit. (rolls 6.3 and 6.4 were smaller in size to make up total debit from closing Roll 5).
  
  Please ask any questions you have about this!
  - fuzzballl 7:43 am on Thursday, March 2, 2017
    
    Brilliant idea adding the put spread for the debit! Adding that to my arsenal. Thanks!
  - rck89 10:45 am on Thursday, March 2, 2017
    
    What is your column DTE?
    - Jeff 10:46 am on Thursday, March 2, 2017
      
      Days to Expiration… how many days until expiration when the trade was entered.
      - rck89 11:07 am on Thursday, March 2, 2017
        
        Thanks. Any yes I’ll have to study your spreadsheet. Also, should I roll the trade that I earlier described to you?
        
        Jeff 12:03 pm on Thursday, March 2, 2017
        
        “Should” is a question you have to answer for yourself. I’ve shown you the way I do it. Once I figured this method, it removed a lot of fear from my trading. If your account can handle capital being tied up, and you can mentally handle the drawdown while you’re in the hole, then the question is “do I think the market will ever be below 2335 again?” And “if I roll up 5 or 10 points every week, will my short strike meet the SPX price at some point?”
        
        If you roll, I suggest doing it a week before expiry (so yesterday for your trade). You could look at the March 15th 2345/2375 (10 points higher) and then look for a put spread that makes up the difference, either for the same date or I often prefer an earlier date for the puts. That way, if the market starts to drop and will free you from your call-jail, you can hope your puts will have already expired before the drop. But as you can see from my chart above, you may get stuck having to roll puts at some point (rolls 6.1 and 6.4 were put spreads that got stopped).
        
        Any other questions, feel free to ask.
        
        rck89 12:49 pm on Thursday, March 2, 2017
        
        Very, very helpful comments….thanks, much! I’m going to wait to see it this pull back goes into a second day.

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