fuzzballl 7:31 pm on Friday, March 24, 2017
Tags: VXXGame ( 769 )

SVXY UVXY….what if?

With our recent increase in SVXY and UVXY trading I thought it might be a good time to pull this out of the archives…

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2250783-how-uvxy-and-svxy-would-have-reacted-in-2008-and-2011?page=7

UVXY to 222 and SVXY to 3? Run that through the TOS analyze tab with current positions and see how it looks. Not a pretty site. Chances are slim but anything is possible with the chance of things going bump in the night over in North Korea or the South China Sea. Let’s be careful out there!

fibwizard 7:46 pm on Friday, March 24, 2017

you hanging out in the closets again?

btw, Made 635 YM points this week…a new milestone for me…
- fuzzballl 7:50 pm on Friday, March 24, 2017
  
  LOL…nice job! Was thinking about that too. If I set up an account with a little starter cash, what sort of commish would you need to drag me along on your scalps? At 600 points a week I’d be fine with 10 percent. You ready to turn pro?
  
  🙂 🙂
  - fibwizard 11:29 am on Saturday, March 25, 2017
    
    Just trying to learn it well enough to make a living after I retire..Just closed on the house at Rockport friday, near Corpus, so when I am no longer longer employed, we will be living on the coast..thus far it looks like I will be able to make a go of trading YM/ES futures and making a decent living from home..maybe i’ll work on my CMT-2 exam for the october test..
- optionshane 11:13 am on Saturday, March 25, 2017
  
  Great trading Fib.
- fibwizard 11:16 am on Saturday, March 25, 2017
  - optionshane 11:47 am on Saturday, March 25, 2017
    
    Larry, where did you get the ADX, ATR, RSI & 34ma Angle indicators in the upper left of your chart? And the HTMT_CCI indicator? Thanks.
    - fibwizard 11:59 am on Saturday, March 25, 2017
      
      The labels , I added the label code to the existing TOS studies to display the Label above..I dont have to waste chart space and still know what the IV and ADX values are..ATR is a must for setting stops in futures..
      
      The angle label and the HTM study is from my futures class teacher..The CCI-50 is all use off of CCI, as it gives an indication of where the price will move next..and to call bottoms and zero line crosses..Its great for trading futures momentum trades..Its free, I’ll give it to you if you want it..
      - fuzzballl 12:07 pm on Saturday, March 25, 2017
        
        That’s an amazing chart setup. Don’t think I could ever learn it. Do you ever get stopped out on a trade? If so, how often? Is this setup pretty much foolproof? Do you think it’s possible to make the occasional scalp with a simpler setup using TTM Trend, TTM Squeeze, and a 21 ema?
        
        fibwizard 10:09 pm on Saturday, March 25, 2017
        
        Fuzzy,
        You can just look for Pivot bounces and 34ema bounces or rejects and make 20-40 points a day..I am not interested in just scalping 10 points here and there..I want to make 40 points a day for around 2K a week..
        
        Indicators wont work well on futures..the pro’s trade the Pivots and the 34ema..I saw early on with squeeze and wave, it was good in trendy days, but chopped you to death in tight mkts..people using indicators in Index futures lose money ultimately..
        
        and yes I get stopped out, since i trade the lines, my stop is usally 5 points..just the other side of the 34 or the PP.. if price retreats which it will do sometimes, I am out for a 5 point loss..I’ll give back 10 or 15 points in order to make 90-130 points on the good days..
        
        fuzzballl 5:26 am on Sunday, March 26, 2017
        
        Thanks!
      - optionshane 12:26 pm on Saturday, March 25, 2017
        
        That would be great. My email is shane.mcginnis@comcast.net. Thanks Larry.
Jeff 3:34 pm on Sunday, March 26, 2017

This is why I stopped trading #VXXGame in volume. The likelihood is this won’t happen again in our lifetimes…. but…. if it does, it could wipe you out easily if you are heavy with positions on the initial spikes, then massively underwater as the real volatitly sets in. I only dabble now, and the next time we DO get a heavy event, I hope to have powder dry to sell when things have already gotten heavy.
- fuzzballl 4:02 pm on Sunday, March 26, 2017
  
  Same here. A few call spreads way out in time that hopefully won’t get in trouble before the next split. Then…someday can pile in selling 200 strike calls @ 20.00 with UVXY at 80 and VIX at 30. Long term will probably make about the same.
  - Jeff 4:23 pm on Sunday, March 26, 2017
    
    Spreads are safer… can’t get wiped out with those. I need to consider those.
    - fuzzballl 4:41 pm on Sunday, March 26, 2017
      
      They are a pain to manage as you know. When selling UVXY if my max position is 10 I’ll only sell 3 or 4 in case I need to roll when they are ITM. This allows room to widen and/or add to be able to do a credit roll. Figuring only one or two rolls would ever be required since UVXY won’t (hopefully) stay elevated for 2 or 3 months.

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