fuzzballl 2:41 pm on Thursday, May 11, 2017

SVXY….how high can it go?

My crude but simple chart courtesy of freestockcharts.com shows a couple possibilities for SVXY by Jan 2018 expiration.

1. We stay below the long term very aggressive upper trend line (yellow) and don’t exceed 195
2. We make a similar run as the one from last July to this most recent all time high (orange lines) starting with the low point of this last dip. That would take us to the 223 area.

*** Light blue vertical is Jan 2018 expiry and light blue horizontals are max estimates based on the two scenarios.

I’m not a fib guy or any of the fancy stuff. This is just a rough outline based on it’s history. Unless the VIX goes to zero I can’t see it exceeding the long term yellow line but who knows…I’m keeping all my call sales in Jan above 225 figuring it will hold.

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tabortrader 4:08 pm on Thursday, May 11, 2017

I’ve been wondering how high it will go, also. Upper Bollinger Band is at 164.28 but that doesn’t indicate future movement. There is a modified Ichimoku indicator that does graph future movements, but it wasn’t a freebee, so I don’t have. Yesterday, was an inside day, we closed about a point higher today, usually indicating tomorrow would be an up day, but it’s really too close to call, and my crystal ball is in the shop. So we’ll see what we see tomorrow playing it day-by-day. However, I’m tapped on playing SVXY cash secured puts, made more money last year when they were cheaper!!!
Thanks for the chart.
fuzzballl 4:47 pm on Thursday, May 11, 2017

From vixcontango.com (keep in mind this guy is a little bit of a drama queen and tends to change his tune frequently) :

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Nice fear inducing test of the 10MA level at 2392. This morning was a good opportunity to load up on some short volatility if you had the money to do it. The XIV started off at -3% this morning and had the entire loss recovered by noon. Market makers used the low volume between 9:30am-10am to trash the market at which point the algos kicked in and recovered it. Really not much time to catch the dip, but the dip was there for the catching.

Long story short, the SPX option burn continues happily until next week.

The entire board is green, no real change to any of the stats. VVIX after starting above 90 is now actually down on the day at 86. We are getting closer to the expiration here and some the hedging that was happening ahead of the expiration date should start coming off and that should lead the VVIX lower over the next couple of days. Correspondingly, the premium built in the VIX futures due to the VVIX, alongside the expiration clock premium, should start coming off as well. Looks like we are going to get a very concentrated move in a short period of time here because there is less time on the clock than there was yesterday. Roll Yield is still nearly 10% and needs to get down to 0% fairly soon. All other parameters are at very healthy levels that don’t denote complacency and the VIX is putting up a big shooting star here at these low levels. It is bouncing off the new 10.80 resistance level big league (that was support for months before that)

I guess the VIX is headed is even lower next time around.
- tabortrader 9:39 pm on Thursday, May 11, 2017
  
  …well, what too say? No disrespect, but WT_? I hope that he earns a legitimate living from this or what the weather man/woman tells us @ 11 o’clock…jeff has it right in my sphere…thanks for your effort, always appreciated!