SVXY….how high can it go?

My crude but simple chart courtesy of freestockcharts.com shows a couple possibilities for SVXY by Jan 2018 expiration.

1. We stay below the long term very aggressive upper trend line (yellow) and don’t exceed 195
2. We make a similar run as the one from last July to this most recent all time high (orange lines) starting with the low point of this last dip. That would take us to the 223 area.

*** Light blue vertical is Jan 2018 expiry and light blue horizontals are max estimates based on the two scenarios.

I’m not a fib guy or any of the fancy stuff. This is just a rough outline based on it’s history. Unless the VIX goes to zero I can’t see it exceeding the long term yellow line but who knows…I’m keeping all my call sales in Jan above 225 figuring it will hold.

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SVXY estimate

NVDA, partial roll

#Earnings BTC $NVDA May 12th 115 calls for 13.40.
STO June 16th 120 puts for 2.45.
Looking for an 11.00 fill on the 120 calls for a June straddle, but price dropped into close. Will try to fill tomorrow.

TAP stock sold

#Earnings #LongStock Took a small loss on these to close the position and free up margin. Had a chance to get out with profit on Monday, but got greedy and thought I’d wait for higher prices. No dice.

Sold to close $TAP stock for 92.80. Assigned via 95 puts last Friday, cost basis 93.00, so .20 loss on the trade.

SPX calls sold

#SPXcampaign Selling an extra spread here as a hedge against a double-sized position in puts I have for the same expiration. This filled 5 seconds after the closing bell:

Sold to Open $SPX May 19th 2415/2440 call spreads for 2.00. These are PM settled, next Friday. They are no longer called SPXPM and appear on the chains with all other SPX weekly options. Please see the notice below from CBOE:

The Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc. will be changing the symbol for existing SPXPM option series to option symbol SPXW. The conversion is planned for May 1, 2017. Any open Good ‘til Cancelled (GTC) orders in SPXPM will be cancelled by the Exchange after the close of business the evening prior to the conversion.
See Regulatory Circular RG17-054 for details (https://www.cboe.com/publish/RegCir/RG17-054.pdf).

IBB

#ShortStrangles – Filled earlier but missed it. Sold against a 295 put. We’ll see where that ends up next week before selling another call.

Bought to Close IBB MAY 19 2017 300.0 Call @ .40 (sold for 3.00)

$M #FallingKnife Sold $M Jan…

$M #FallingKnife
Sold $M Jan 18 20 puts @ 1.22

$NUGT #coveredcalls Playing it safe…

$NUGT #coveredcalls

Playing it safe BTO NUGT $33.05, STO May 12 $32.5 Call $1.05 for ROI 1.56% in day and half.

REGN

#ShortStrangles – I’m feeling like tomorrow’s 430.0 puts will be safe (sold for 6.30)

So:

Rolled Aug 410 calls to Sep 420 calls @ 3.25 debit…I’ll keep the other 3.05 as a profit. With these that far out in time it will cost about 3 dollars for evey 5 dollar roll up. I’ll try to keep collecting 5-6 per week to finance that and book some profit.

VRX…whew

#LongCallDiagonals – Just started this trade yesterday and already needing adjusted. I’m seeing 18 and 19 price targets on it now so gotta get the short calls out of the way of the LEAP calls.

Rolled May 19th 13.5 calls out to July 21st 16’s @ .04 debit (still a net .18 credit on these)

This clears the decks for a run all the way to at least 20 before the short calls and long calls have equal deltas.

EDIT…. 24.60 is the delta neutral number…LOL If we get there the trade is over. Fuzzy will be long gone!

$AKAM $SIG #ShortPuts #FallingKnife -…

$AKAM $SIG #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – sold these today, among others
Sold AKAM Nov 17 2017 40.0 Puts @ 1.22
Sold SIG Oct 20 2017 45.0 Puts @ 1.25

#SP500 #NewLows #FallingKnife – $M…

#SP500 #NewLows #FallingKnife – $M $SIG $TSCO $BBBY $AN $GWW
In general, all these are in retail/wholesale sales.
The others that have been getting hit for a long time are $MAC $SPG $KIM – all REITS.
I’m staying away

NVDA is going up so…

NVDA is going up so much that I bailed on the 125/130 bear call sold for .76. STC it for 1.25. Bought the 120 Call for 6.05 db. STC for 7.15 cr. I should have stayed in it.

$SVXY $UVXY

STO SVXY May 26 $113 puts @ $0.58
STO SVXY May 26 $120 puts @ $0.90
STO SVXY Jun 2 $100 puts @ $0.50
STO UVXY Jun 9 $26 calls @ $0.31
STO UVXY May 26 $19 calls @ $0.25

WDC covered calls

Rolling covered calls on this since 2/10. Just rolled again out to Jun 16. 87.50 calls.
Cost basis now down to 73.57 from original of 78.14 in Feb.

VZ

STO December 42 puts @1.16

rolled WDC puts next week…

rolled WDC puts next week 85 to June 16 for credit of 1.2. Sold for 0.8 last week.

From tasty trade this morning

Five stocks represent the market cap of 10% of the $28 trillion US equities market. AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, and FB have a total market cap of $2.8 trillion.  10% of the total.  Yikes.  Talk about technology taking over the market– and our lives.  Think about it:  we spend all day looking at FB on a product built by AAPL, bought on AMZN, searched for on GOOGL, and with MSFT … doing something in the background.   Four of them have been especially strong, but FB has been down on 5 of the last 6 trading days.  Not that that’s an omen or anything, but if you think that the market might head lower with any weakness in these five stocks, FB could lead the way down

TMUS has fairly decent premiums…

TMUS has fairly decent premiums at the moment on weeklies. I am out of cash so can’t do any more trades today but FYI if anyone looking to sell something.

JPM

Giving it a little room on this #LongCallDiagonals

Sold JPM MAY 26 2017 88.5 Calls @ .45

$UVXY

Morning folks, hope you’ve had a good trading week. Finally getting a small window of time to make a couple of trades.

STO May 19 $14 calls @ $0.55
STO May 26 $17.5 calls @ $0.33

Short term trades and still very small positions in case things continued to degrade. Market looks to be bouncing now, so make go ahead and look for a couple of more.
Will be on airplanes most of the day headed back home.

@Jeff, Portland (Wilsonville) has been beautiful. Great weather up until today. Stay dry.

SVXY

I’m long a little stock @ 151.14 from a #TakeOneForTheTeamTrade …. since I’ve got another one of these for next week I wouldn’t mind unloading the stock so covering it for tomorrow. If nothing else, I’ll reduce the basis a little.

Sold SVXY MAY 12 2017 151.0 Call @ 1.30

Bunch of trades

#rolled TSO assorted calls 83 strike this week to May 26 83 calls at 0.88-.94 with avg. fill at 0.88. Originally sold for around 1.24 just before earnings. Decided to roll to catch the dividend next week then hope to be called away. After 9 weeks in the trade and multiple rolls if I am called out at 83 will have a nice profit. Assigned at 87.5 back then, cost basis now around 79.75 on assorted trades and the dividend will reduce that to 79.20.

Rolled TSO 77 puts this week to next week 80.5 for credit of 0.78. Originally sold last week for 1.05.

New market measures on laddering strangles https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures

Still have WDC put ladders out 4 weeks, waiting for a little more theta decay through the weekend for some rolls.

Also have some EEM, DIA, SPY positions I am waiting to close to free up margin but they are longer term plays so still have 60-90 days on those.

VIX is almost up a whole point!!!! Yeah………

Raining here so if I see a good day trade will post but looks like the big moves are already settling down.

Collected more in premium on the above trades in 45 minutes than I get from a paycheck for 2 weeks and did the same last week. Most of it retirement so can’t touch it for 13.5 more years, but every bit now will help then!

I am now flat for expiration tomorrow.

Cheers Chris

$UVXY #ShortCalls – Sold Jun…

$UVXY #ShortCalls – Sold Jun 23 2017 24.50 Calls @ 0.70 with the stock at 13.32. Highest available Strike.

#FallingKnife candidates today $ALXN $AMGN…

#FallingKnife candidates today
$ALXN $AKAM $AMGN $BIIB $CHRW $ESRX $SIG $TSCO $UPS

$DUST #ShortCalls – Bought to…

$DUST #ShortCalls – Bought to Close DUST May 19 2017 45 Calls Limit @ 0.05.
High margin requirements.
Sold on 4/27/17 at 0.75.

ISRG adjustment

#ShortStrangles – Rolled May 12th 850.0 put out to May 19th 850.0 @ 2.25 credit

Sold against June 855.0 call…once I feel this call is safe I’ll start rolling the put down and out. I’d like to be completely out of this position by next earnings.

Since earnings one ISRG strangle has brought in 20.65 in premium against 11k margin.

NVDA continues…

Bought to Close NVDA MAY 12 2017 118.0 Puts @ .35 (sold for 4.34 and 3.16 yesterday)

Sold NVDA MAY 19 2017 120.0 Put @ 2.27
Sold NVDA MAY 19 2017 121.0 Put @ 2.75
Sold NVDA MAY 19 2017 122.0 Put @ 3.29
Sold NVDA MAY 19 2017 123.0 Puts @ 3.87

Used a tiny portion of premium received to roll up and out a couple calls:

Rolled Jun 23rd 115 calls out and up to Jul 21st 120’s @ 2.16 debit

#ira

$TSCO #FallingKnife Adding a ladder…

$TSCO #FallingKnife
Adding a ladder rung to my short Oct 55 puts.
Sold $TSCO Jan 19 50 puts @ 50 puts @ 1.15.

SPX switcheroo

#SPXcampaign Running into some margin limitations today as I am weighted toward the short put side so wasn’t able to sell more put spreads on my portfolio margin account. So, I am closing a short-term put spread and selling a call spread as a #ReverseRoll. This clears me to sell a longer-term put spread to fulfill my campaign objectives. This is playing on the assumption we are hitting some lows this week for a bounce into monthly expiration next week.

Bought to close $SPX May 18th 2340/2315 put spreads for 1.20. Sold as part of an iron condor for 3.40 on Apr 25th.
#ReverseRoll Sold to Open SPX May 18th 2415/2440 call spreads for 1.30.

Sold to Open SPX June 9th 2290/2265 put spreads for 1.40.

TLT adjustment

#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Selling some and rolling some…

Sold TLT JUN 2 2017 121.5 Calls @ .53

Rolled May 19th 123.5 puts to Jun 9th 123.0 @ even

$M–Didn’t get out of the way

Stupid mistake. I was profitable on short May 19 27 puts, and I didn’t take them off before earnings. I just got pulled away to other things and didn’t get back to it before the market closed. So I’m rolling them to June (same strike) for .63 credit. Brings cost basis down to 25.67.

$DUST #shortcalls BTC Dust Jun…

$DUST #shortcalls
BTC Dust Jun 16 $36C for 2.80, 2.75; sold 4/27 for $4.10

CRI

BTC June 70 puts @ .05, sold @ 1.20

Economic Data

8:30am EST PPI m/m – street sees 0.2%
8:30am EST Unemployment Claims – street sees 245K
8:30am EST Core PPI m/m – street sees 0.2%
10:30am EST Natural Gas Storage – street sees 52B
1:01pm EST 30-y Bond Auction

Earnings before Open
HIMAX TECH-ADR (HIMX) – consensus EPS 0.04
KOHLS CORP (KSS) – consensus EPS 0.27
MACYS INC (M) – consensus EPS 0.35

Earnings After Markets Close
BLUE BIRD CORP (BLBD) – consensus EPS 0.15
CHEROKEE INC (CHKE) – consensus EPS 0.14
LEARNING TREE (LTRE) – consensus EPS N/A
NORDSTROM INC (JWN) – consensus EPS 0.27