Sold $AAPL Jan 18 165/160 BuPS @ 1.12. IV rank is 66. Delta of short puts 28. Could be a double bottom on the daily–if there’s follow through I’ll look to take this off quickly with help from delta and a contraction of IV.
Daily Archives: Thursday, December 6, 2018
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 7th 2600/2580 put spread for .75. Legging in since market is moving higher. Trying for 2750/2770 on call side.
#earnings #shortstrangles LULU Sold Dec….
#earnings #shortstrangles LULU
Sold Dec. 21, 100/160 for 1.29, thanks for the data Jeff.
TRADES:
SFIX 12/14/18 23.5 PUT @1.00
SFIX 12/14/18 31.0 CALL @1.47 I’m trying to work out an earnings play for next week. Have to buy stock.
PBYI 12/14/18 22.5 PUT @1.10
And…the Qs are positive
Nasdaq up on the day, after being down almost 175 points lower this morning
AMZN
Earlier I bought to open the December 7, 1625/1640 bull call spread at 10.50 for a small trade of 5 contracts. I have an order in to sell it at 14.50 so may get filled at the end of the day or early tomorrow.
TRADES: Was down 2.5% this…
TRADES: Was down 2.5% this morning, almost flat now.
BTC Short Calls in, PCG, AMD, DBX & WLL @.05 this morning.
DBX STO 12/14/18 23.50 CALLS @.40
WFC STO a 12/14/18 50/45 BuPS @.80
Jeff, doing a earnings analysis…
Jeff, doing a earnings analysis on SFIX?
SMH
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Surprisingly this ticker isn’t getting killed too bad today (yet)…
Bought to Close SMH DEC 7 2018 98.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .85)
Sold SMH DEC 14 2018 95.0 Calls @ .82
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – This week’s short puts are obviously safe. Sizable position with nice profits. For risk management I used those profits to buy back a couple short calls I wasn’t comfortable with. Position is out to 2021 so plenty of time to get that back. Much more comfortable now with one short call against 8 short puts in the weeklies. Sold next week’s…
Sold UVXY DEC 14 2018 55.0 Puts @ 1.72
Vix finally moving up quickly,…
Vix finally moving up quickly, possible bottom, there is a lot of volume here over the last 30 days on volume profile. Who knows but if it breaks this level probably a lot more downside.
Going for bike, should know when I get back.
Rolls
Trying to get back to selling weeklies, better returns in real time confirmed by my account balances. Taking a credit of 0.4 every week works out to $2080 profits for 52 weeks vs. 1.2 x 12 months only works out to $1440 or 37% better return. So anyway, even with the gamma risk the decay is much faster on weeklies and the #pietrades concept works so now I am trying to apply it to all other trades, #fuzzy, #coveredcalls etc. to increase income. Last 8-12 weeks had gone out 21-45 DTE on expirations to help deal with the volatility. Trying to pull everything back to weekly now. I know TT shows 45 DTE works best but not according to my account balances.
#fuzzy
MU 40/40 8 DTE rolled out to 15 DTE for 0.53 credit. Cb now 14.16
WDC 40/47 8 DTE rolled out to 15 DTE for 0.27 credit. Cb 21.13
GILD 67.5/69 1 DTE rolled out to 8 DTE for 0.61 credit. Cb 10.35. I really wanted to let some more time decay but doubt I will have time to trade tomorrow. Starting to see flu so the office is really busy. Get your flu shots if you have not had them yet.
Added 1 more at lunch time, EOG 110/110 8 DTE rolled out 15 DTE for 0.30. Cb 12.39
Still have 110 weeks to manage all these. The #fuzzy trades handle the volatility better than anything else I have on at the moment.
#pietrades
LNG 1 DTE rolled out to 8 DTE at 62 cc for 0.45 credit. Cb 59.58
Lots of expirations next week and week after. Should free ups some cash to try a live #lizardpies and maybe @elitethink short iron fly tactic, small lots on both.
Hope everyone is having a good week 🙂
#shortstock KBE Nov. 2, sold…
#shortstock KBE
Nov. 2, sold short 100 shares of the regional banking ETF at 43.20. Nov. 6 sold a 41 put for .40, bought it Tue. for .35.
Today bought to cover the 100 shares for 41.10.
#earnings #shortstrangles FIVE Dec. 4,…
#earnings #shortstrangles FIVE
Dec. 4, sold an 85/125 strangle for 1.28, bought today for .39
#assignment #fuzzy SLB Feb. 16,…
#assignment #fuzzy SLB
Feb. 16, sold a Jan. 18, 2019 65/67.50 as part of a fuzzy. I was assigned the 67.50 yesterday. After selling the 65 put for 22.50, figuring in the worthless 67.50 long call, and all of the short call sales ,the cost basis is 44.26.
TQQQ
STO December 28, 40 puts @ 1.70
ULTA earnings analysis
#Earnings $ULTA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 30, 2018 AC 6.37%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.71%
March 15, 2018 AC 7.63%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -4.11%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -9.13% Biggest DOWN
May 25, 2017 AC 3.19%
March 9, 2017 AC 4.62%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -1.56%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -6.11%
May 26, 2016 AC 9.10%
March 10, 2016 AC 17.27% Biggest UP
Dec. 3, 2015 AC 12.80%
Avg (+ or -) 6.88%
Bias 3.28%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 290.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 271.98 to 308.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 270.04 to 309.96
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.3%): 239.92 to 340.08
Open for requests on other symbols.
LULU earnings analysis
#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 30, 2018 AC 13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC 16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC 9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC 7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC 11.54%
March 29, 2017 AC -23.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 7, 2016 AC 15.04%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -10.55%
June 8, 2016 BO 4.90%
March 30, 2016 BO 10.71%
Dec. 9, 2015 BO -13.11%
Avg (+ or -) 11.79%
Bias 3.94%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 133.50 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 119.62 to 147.38
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 117.32 to 148.68
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.4%): 101.84 to 164.16
Open for requests on other symbols.
AVGO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 6, 2018 AC 7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 0.00%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%
June 1, 2017 AC 8.49%
March 1, 2017 AC 0.99%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC 4.90%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -2.24%
June 2, 2016 AC 4.93%
March 3, 2016 AC 6.35%
Dec. 2, 2015 AC 9.50% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 4.68%
Bias 2.46%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 225.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 212.36 to 237.64
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 214.48 to 235.52
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 203.63 to 246.38
Open for requests on other symbols.
Options Bistro 