NFLX earnings analysis

#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 21, 2020 AC -2.86%
Jan. 21, 2020 AC -3.58%
Oct. 16, 2019 AC +2.46%
July 17, 2019 AC -10.27% Biggest DOWN
April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 5.77%
Bias 0.97%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 520.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 467.05 to 572.95 (+/- 10.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 490.00 to 550.00
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 449.59 to 590.41
Based on DOWN max only (-10.3%): 466.60

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