Downside Warning in effect!

#VIXIndicator A double warning today as $VIX closed up over 25% from yesterday’s close and is also up over 50% from the August 11th VIX low. Expect lower markets in the coming days or weeks.


#ShortPuts – This might get volatility to come down a little. Going for one night scalp…roll if needed.

Sold UVXY SEP 4 2020 26.0 Puts @ .21

No trade

#SPX1dte With today’s volatility and the #Jobs Report in the morning, I’m skipping the overnight $SPX trade today.


Bought back half of my AAL 09/04/2020 15.50 Diagonal Calls @ 0.01 to release a bit of margin.
They won’t trade any lower.

VXX Calls

Just to force me to stay long and not bail too soon:
Liquidated my long VXX September 18 2020 80.0 Calls and also shorted them @ 0.25.
Sold against long October and November 70.0 Calls so no upside risk.

CRWD & FIVE earnings

#Earnings Unless it rallies tomorrow, looks like $CRWD will be a bust, but it was sold ITM so I knew the risk…
BTC $FIVE Sept 4th 112 puts for .05. Will let the call side wait for tomorrow.


#ShortPuts – A couple of my bigger positions so have to take the one day gains. Looking for a re-entry on any decent drop.

Bought to Close UVXY SEP 11 2020 21.5 Puts @ .19 (sold for 1.17)
Bought to Close UVXY SEP 11 2020 22.0 Puts @ .25 (sold for 1.16)


Not much green here
Semis and software groups are the leading losers.
NO new lows in the SP500 yet so no #FallingKnife candidates today

AMD strangle

Sold $AMD 10/16 65/110 strangle @ 3.42.


Probably a nice bounce if it gets here


@DAN is right is will be the 3rd day down (ie: Tuesday)

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sept 9th 3460/3480-3490/3510 condors for 17.20, with SPX at 3480.

Also, yesterday: Sept 2nd 3490/3510 call spreads expired ITM for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Thursday for 16.45.


Bought to Close 1 Contract SQQQ Sep 04 2020 19 Put @ $0.01. It won’t trade any lower.
Sold earlier this week @ 0.22

CRWD post-earnings

Sold $CRWD 9/18 110/115/145/150 iron condor @ 1.40.

#vxxgame SOLD -1 VXX 20…

SOLD -1 VXX 20 NOV 20 65 CALL @2.76
had bto @ .92 on 8/13/20


Sold $AAPL 10/16 115/100 bull put spread @ 1.15. Short puts 24 delta. IV rank 55.

TRADES: Sticking with what I know best.

WKHS STO 9/11/20 20.0 CALLS @.73
THC STO 9/11/20 29.0 ATM CALLS @1.12
WKHS STO 9/11/12 16.5 PUT @.60


Thursday’s levels to watch: The Upside Warning will be canceled with an intraday VIX high of 30.42.


Good time to have 10 excess long calls in VXX

Upside Warning canceled!

VIX has spiked over 50% higher than its recent low.

Looks like I picked the…

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue
Rolled 9/4 3475/3500/3600/3625 iron condor out to 9/9 3455/3480/3570/3595 for .30 credit

#earningsfive Yesterday STO 4 Sep…

Yesterday STO 4 Sep Bups 112/107 for 1.50
Today, BTC for .10
Thanks Jeff for the data



VXX I would have expected…

I would have expected more of a move here, could that indicate the 500 drop in /NQ isn’t that relevant? It is to me though.


Misleading headline of the day

“The Nasdaq Has Given Up All Of September’s Gains”

Interesting read…


#ShortPuts – Adding….

Sold TQQQ SEP 18 2020 120.0 Put @ 2.05

WFC Covered Calls

Sold WFC SEP 25 2020 $30 CALLS @ 0.11
The stock is bouncing around just above 25.
The premium is about equal to the new quarterly dividend, which is not a lot these days.
In my estimation banks are pretty Covid-proof so I’ll hold on for an eventual recovery.
It would be nice if they managed their business better though 😦


MS BTO STOCK @54.03 & 54.16 on the Point & Figure chart’s ascending triple top’s breakout, and double chart breakout buy signals. We’ll see.

AVGO earnings analysis

#Earnings $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 4, 2020 AC +2.65%
March 12, 2020 AC +7.05%
Dec. 12, 2019 AC -3.77%
Sept. 12, 2019 AC -3.41%
June 13, 2019 AC -5.56% Biggest DOWN
March 14, 2019 AC +8.23% Biggest UP
Dec. 6, 2018 AC +0.58%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%

Avg (+ or -) 4.17%
Bias 0.20%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 365.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 340.68 to 389.32 (+/- 6.7%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 349.80 to 380.20
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 334.96 to 395.04
Based on DOWN max only (-5.6%): 344.71

Open to requests for other symbols.