WDC

Bought to close WDC Sep 11 2020 40 Diagonal Calls @ 0.01.
They won’t trade any lower

#earnings PTON Sold Oct. 16,…

#earnings PTON

Sold Oct. 16, 65/70 put spread for 1.18

#speculation

SPX 1-dte

Skipping the trade for tomorrow’s expiry.

QQQ, looking at the chart,…

QQQ, looking at the chart, it looks like we could go down to 250 if it breaks the 50day MA. Not making a prediction but just being cautious.

A TRADE:

OSTK BTC 9/11/20 81.0 CALL @.90 STO @4.20 this morning.

TDOC

#ShortPuts – Just for safety…

Bought to Close TDOC SEP 11 2020 185.0 Put @ .28 (sold for 2.90)

LABU

#ShortPuts – Closed some this morning. Throwing some new starters out there now.

Sold LABU SEP 25 2020 40.0 Put @ 1.65
Sold LABU OCT 2 2020 35.0 Put @ 1.15

#earnings CHWY #jadelizard with a…

#earnings CHWY #jadelizard with a long put

Sold Sept. 18, 55.50/59.50/62.50/64 for 2.13

Thanks for the data Jeff

Preparations for the Elections more…

Preparations for the Elections

more of a general question but how are you preparing for the jump of volatility that inevitably will happen during the first week(s) of November.

  • Do you retreat to all cash in your trading accounts?
  • if not, do you hedge it and how?

I have started to get some long calls on VXX, far OTM with expiration in November and/or December, added a Call calendar in VXX with October / November expiration. Just not sure what else could be done

CHWY earnings analysis

#Earnings $CHWY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

A rare case where the expected move is nearly twice its historical maximum move.

June 9, 2020 AC -3.64% -3.64%
April 2, 2020 AC -4.82% -4.82%
Dec. 9, 2019 AC +5.45% 5.45%
Sept. 17, 2019 AC -6.14% -6.14%
July 18, 2019 AC -6.57% -6.57%

Avg (+ or -) 5.32%
Bias -3.14% , negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 62.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 54.66 to 69.34 (+/- 11.8%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 5 quarters: 58.70 to 65.30
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 5 Q’s (6.6%): 57.93 to 66.07
Based on UP max only (+5.5%): 65.38

Open to requests for other symbols.

DIS (ESPN), VIAC (CBS)

Both higher on the start of the NFL season tonight
Are people so starved for entertainment?

RH earnings

Up 23% on earnings
How do analysts keep getting this one wrong?

Fires

Jeff, I hope you are OK where you are

Gov. Kate Brown said the communities of Blue River and Vida in Lane County had been devastated by wildfires this week, while Phoenix and Talent, in the southern part of the state, have reported “significant damage,” the Portland Tribune reported.

Brown said, “this could be the greatest loss of life and structures due to wildfire in state history. ”

The state’s fires remain largely unchallenged Thursday morning as emergency personnel continues to evacuate thousands of people to safety. Doug Grafe, with the Department of Forestry, said the fire situation in the state is “zero percent containment.”

“The largest blaze is the Santiam/Beachie Creek Fire, at 132,450 acres burned east of Salem. It is zero percent contained. The Lionshead Fire has burned 109,222 acres. Fire officials said they expected the fires in the Santiam River area to combine into one large blaze about 3,000 firefighters are deployed,” The Tribune said.

A TRADE:

OSTK STC STOCK @82.28 BTO 80.75 81.0 CALL, now uncovered Expires tomorrow.

VXX

Sold to open 1 VXX 09/18/2020 30.0 Call @ 0.98 against a long October 70.0 call left over from an old diagonal spread.

Took the money and bought a speculative December 90 call @ 0.86 ( Election hedge).
VXX @ 27.20

#earnings #closing LULU Sept. 8,…

#earnings #closing LULU

Sept. 8, sold Oct. 16 #ironcondor for 2.66, bought today for 1.96.

LULU roll

BTC Sep-11-2020 $LULU 290/300 #BuPS @0.06 debit
STO Oct-09-2020 $LULU 285/295 #BuPS @1.51 credit.
Holding Sep-18 310/320, Sep-25 320/330 and Oct-2 325/335.

Closing CRWD

Bought to close $CRWD 9/18 110/115//145/150 iron condor @ .65. Sold for 1.40 on 9/3.

CHWY Earnings

#ShortPuts – Going out a week and staying small.

Sold CHWY SEP 18 2020 55.0 Puts @ 1.35

LULU, BTC September 18, 300/380…

LULU, BTC September 18, 300/380 strangle at 1.30, sold at 5.50, hat tip to Fuzzball for the idea.

LABU OSTK

#CoveredCalls #ShortPuts – Booking, rolling and adding…

OSTK: Covered call and new sale.
Rolled OSTK SEP 11 2020 70.0 Call to SEP 18 2020 70.0 Call @ 2.16 credit
Sold OSTK SEP 18 2020 75.0 Put @ 4.00

LABU: These weren’t looking so hot a couple days ago. I’ll take ’em here.
Bought to Close LABU SEP 11 2020 45.0 Puts @ .30 (sold for 1.80)
Bought to Close LABU SEP 11 2020 47.5 Put @ .70 (sold for 2.45)

Closing AMZN

Bought to close 9/18 $AMZN 2980/3000//3600/3620 iron condor @ 2.60. Sold for 6.79 on 8/18.

A TRADE:

OSTK BTO STOCK 80.75 To cover short call I traded today. Expires tomorrow. Stock up 11.0 points on what, I think, is positive news.

SPX 7 dte

#SPX7dte Bought to Open $SPX Sept 16th 3395/3415-3425/3445 condors for 17.75, with SPX at 3419.

A TRADE:

OSTK STO NTM 9/11/20 81.0 CALL @4.20