VIX SPY

Mirror image of last week.

SPY down
VIX Down

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 9th 3180/3200-3440/3460 condors for 1.15, IV 31.32%, SPX 3343, deltas -.05,+.06.

Today’s condor: closed put side for .10, remainder expires.

#spx7dtelong

#earnings #ironcondor LULU It took…

#earnings #ironcondor LULU

It took a few tries at different prices and expirations throughout the day

Sold Oct. 16, 280/290/430/440 for 2.66
Thanks for the data Jeff
#tastytradefollow

AMAT short puts

With the stock looking weak and a decisive break below the 200 day moving average, this wouldn’t be the ideal day (at least technically) to sell puts and take a bullish position. But I am looking to potentially acquire this stock below 50 and this put sale will allow me to do that if it continues down more than another 10% at expiration. As of now it’s down almost 9% today, almost 15% over the last 4 trading days and around 20% from its intraday high on 8/14.

Sold $AMAT 10/16 50 puts @ 1.60. Delta 25. IV rank 34.

VXX Puts

Sold 1 VXX 09/11/2020 27.0 Put @ 0.58
Sold VXX 09/11/2020 26.50 Puts @ 0.39
Sold these against existing long puts in 2021 and 2022

VXX

#ShortPuts – Small hedge for quite a few longs next week…

Sold VXX SEP 11 2020 27.0 Puts @ .61

VXX Diagonal Calendar Put

Even though I have a boatload of long (Fully paid for) Puts for 2021 and 2022 I’m adding a new long with this spread
Bought to open VXX 01/15/2021 17.0 Puts / Sold VXX 09/11/2020 27.50 Puts @ 0.03 Credit.

This puts my VXX Short Strangle positions more in balance for the coming week

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Sept 8th 3260 puts for .10. Condors sold for 1.25 on Friday.

I will be selling a new one for tomorrow’s expiration.

KSS Covered Call

Sold 1 KSS 10/16/2020 25.0 Covered Call @ 1.09

AAL Diagonal Calendar, Covered Call

Bought to open AAL 10/16/2020 23.0 Calls / Sold AAL 09/11/2020 14.50 Calls @ 0.03 Credit.

Also sold 1 AAL 09/11/2020 14.50 Covered Call @ 0.25, replacing the strike 14 call from last week.

LULU earnings analysis

#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 11, 2020 AC -3.81%
March 26, 2020 AC -5.95%
Dec. 11, 2019 AC -3.73%
Sept. 5, 2019 AC +7.81%
June 12, 2019 AC +2.12%
March 27, 2019 AC +14.12%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%

Avg (+ or -) 8.59%
Bias 4.12%, strongly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 360.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 320.79 to 399.21 (+/- 10.9%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 329.07 to 390.93
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.3%): 301.28 to 418.72
Based on DOWN max only (-13.4%): 311.90

NOTE: Max 5-day moves are -11.1% and +18.1%, so slightly more bullish than 1-day.

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sept 14th 3340/3360-3370/3390 condors for 18.25, with SPX at 3367.

#coveredcalls WBA M Replacing a…

#coveredcalls WBA M

Replacing a couple expirations

WBA sold Sept. 18, 39 call for .18
M sold Sept. 18, 8 call for .17

WBA Diagonal Calendars

Bought to open WBA 10/16/2020 30.0 Puts / Sold WBA 09/11/2020 36.0 Puts @ 0.12 Credit
Bought to open WBA 10/23/2020 30.0 Puts / Sold WBA 09/18/2020 35.50 Puts @ 0.16 Credit

The stock is 36.61 with the Low YTD of 36.50 and a big dividend yield. I’m hoping it holds here in a weak market.

TQQQ

#ShortPuts – Let’s see if it can take out all the major moving averages…

Sold TQQQ OCT 2 2020 85.0 Put @ 3.45

My Podcast

I’m no longer going to use Options Bistro to post my podcast, “The Pick,” but that won’t stop me from shameless self promotion. I’ve added a section for my podcast at the bottom of the right hand column. It will display the three latest posts, and clicking on any of them will connect to the website where you can link to the episodes, videos, and other information about the show.

This podcast s NOT about trading, but rather music and entertainment. I hope you listen and enjoy!