Covered Stock remnants from an #Earnings trade. No interest in holding this beyond today so bailing out at even.
Sold stock and bought 177.50 call @ 177.47 giving up 3 cents to avoid exercise fees…
Author Archives: fuzzballl
PBYI
Another one to add to the #FallingKnife watch list…
DIS earnings
#Earnings – Took a shot and the dealer pulled a 6 card “21” on me. Closed the ITM sides paying an extra penny to avoid exercise fees.
Bought to Close call portion of DIS 102/103/104 iron flies @ 1.01 (sold for .90). Puts should expire…
AAOI
#ShortStrangles – She’s actually perking up a little bit. Gonna let out the leash and give it some room…selling against DITM puts so treating it like a covered call.
Rolled AAOI NOV 10 2017 44.0 Calls to NOV 24 2017 46.5 Calls @ .25 credit
Current position is an “inverted calendar”…short Dec 80.0 puts and short Nov 17 44.0 calls.
These are 36 points inverted with 19.90 premium received. To get back to even I need to squeeze the inversion in to narrower than the premium received. Stock gets in between and the entire thing goes away…still some work to do but getting there.
STMP
#CoveredCalls – Replacing this week’s…selling aggressively while she (hopefully) consolidates for awhile.
Sold STMP NOV 17 2017 175.0 Call @ 3.50
SPX hedge
#RocketManHedge – Synthetic short out in January. Gradually covering the cost (and a little more) while carrying a little downside protection. Going out to next Wed here since the Friday monthlies only trade until Thur at the close.
This week’s 2560 looks safe so:
Sold SPX NOV 15 2017 2565.0 Put @ 5.70
HIMX
#SyntheticStock – So so earnings so looking weak. I may regret this but very aggressive sale slightly in the money…
Bought to Close HIMX NOV 10 2017 10.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .35)
Sold HIMX NOV 17 2017 10.0 Calls @ .50
EWZ
#SyntheticStock – Weak stock so staying aggressive with the front month sales…
Bought to Close EWZ NOV 10 2017 40.0 Calls @ .02 (sold for .46)
Sold EWZ NOV 24 2017 40.0 Calls @ .45
DIS
#SyntheticStock – The mouse is running…rolling front month up a strike for slight credit picking up another 1.05 of upside.
Rolled DIS NOV 10 2017 99.0 Calls to DEC 29 2017 100.0 Calls @ .05 credit
NVDA earnings
DIS earnings
#Earnings – Just for fun planning on hardly any movement. This is obviously separate from my #SyntheticStock position…
Sold DIS 102/103/104 iron flies @ .90 risking .10 to make .90 with a 3.15 expected move.
PCLN
Guess they’re not going out of business after all? 🙂
NVDA earnings
FFIV
#ShortStrangles – Was just killing time with some post earnings strangles. Trading these in for my NVDA earnings position…
Bought to Close FFIV NOV 17 2017 115.0/127.0 Strangles @ .50 (sold for 1.45)
AAOI
#ShortStrangles – Not taking stock since these are trading just like stock this DITM. Going for max premium selling weekly calls against. Out at even is my goal…
Rolled AAOI NOV 17 2017 80.0 Puts to DEC 15 2017 80.0 Puts @ 1.00 credit
Still sitting on short 44 calls for tomorrow. All included since the beginning of this ordeal I’ve reduced basis in the puts to 60.25 so gradually getting there!
MGM
#SyntheticStock #LongCallDiagonals – Rolling up and out to the monthly picking up another .61 of upside.
Rolled MGM NOV 10 2017 31.5 Calls to MGM DEC 15 2017 32.0 Calls @ .11 credit
REGN
#CoveredCalls – More basis reduction…kind of an odd fill doing this in a single trade. Closed this week well above the mid and sold next week well above the mid. Still got the 5 bucks I was asking.
Bought to Close REGN NOV 10 2017 425.0 Call @ 1.29 (sold for 6.50)
Sold REGN NOV 17 2017 415.0 Call @ 6.29
SVXY
#ShortPuts #IRA – Bought to Close SVXY NOV 17 2017 80.0 Put @ .25 (sold for 2.50)
OPHT…blast from the past
Looks like they’re still alive and kicking. Anybody that’s still at OMM…has @scottto mentioned it lately? These guys and REGN both had good earnings today.
SVXY stock
#CoveredCalls – Received this stock from reverse rolling some threatened calls quite awhile back. Lot’s of things I could do with it to squeeze a little extra out of it but I’m not gonna look a gift chicken…errr….horse in the mouth. Breakeven was my original goal and with plenty of Jan risk I’m booking and raising the cash.
Sold to Close SVXY covered stock @ 91.25 (basis 83.22)
Sold to Close SVXY covered stock @ 93.25 (basis 84.07)
WDC
#ShortPuts – For some reason today (maybe it’s the chicken) I’m feeling like trimming some risk. Also, clearing out a little to take a slightly bigger position than normal in NVDA earnings tomorrow.
Bought to Close WDC NOV 17 2017 85.0 Puts @ 1.00 (sold for 1.55)
NVDA
#Earnings tomorrow so I’m going flat until then. Taking a buck here for now.
Bought to Close NVDA NOV 10 2017 210.0/200.0 Bull Put Spread @ 4.25 (sold for 5.25)
AAOI and REGN earnings
#Earnings – Positions in both so not adding to either one…
TDA commish…here we go again :)
Nearing the end of year so it’s time for me to evaluate my volume of trading and related fees. I’ve increased my volume of contracts enough to where I really need to address this. I’ve found some competitors that are considerably less with similar trading platforms. I’m looking at moving to a place that starts at 50 cents per contract. I like it here at TDA and would prefer to stay even if slightly higher. If we could get me down to 75 cents per contract (no ticket charge) that would help a lot.
Thanks for your consideration.
UVXY risk reduction
#BearCallSpreads #VXXGame #IRA – Taking a little off here in case tax reform dies and we get a debt ceiling battle towards end of year…
Bought to Close UVXY JAN 19 2018 30.0/40.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .50 (sold for 2.20)
VRX
#LongCallDiagonals #SyntheticStock #IRA -Been waiting for this thing to show some signs of life to get in (again) with a long term Whiz style. 2020’s out so going in with a full position.
Bought to Open VRX JAN 17 2020 15.0 Calls @ 4.20
Sold to Open VRX JAN 17 2020 15.0 Puts @ 4.66
Taking the 46 cent credit from synthetic position applying it to the disaster put…
Bought to Open VRX JAN 17 2020 12.0 Puts @ 2.96
This gives a net debit of only 2.50 for the Jan 2020 position. Add the 3 point max downside and get a max loss possibility of 5.50. Based on that, and the 114 weeks remaining in the trade I only need to average 5.0 cents per week in sales to cover the absolute worst case scenario.
So:
Sold VRX NOV 17 2017 14.5 Calls @ .23
PCLN
#ShortStrangles – Taking a small shot….
Sold PCLN DEC 15 2017 1550.0/1950.0 Strangle @ 5.50
AAPL
#ShortPuts – Not sitting on these for months for a few dollars. Freeing up a lot of margin in the #IRA ….
Bought to Close AAPL JAN 19 2018 140.0 Put @ .30 (sold for 3.83)
Bought to Close AAPL FEB 16 2018 135.0 Put @ .52 (sold for 3.70)
Bought to Close AAPL APR 20 2018 130.0 Put @ .78 (sold for 3.56)
FB earnings
#Earnings – Original trade was super bullish NOV 3 2017 190.0/185.0 Bull Put Spread @ 3.50
Stock dropped so booking the long put and applying it to the stock basis when I receive stock this weekend.
Sold to Close FB NOV 3 2017 185.0 Put @ 6.50
So…10.00 premium received so far. Stock basis will be 180. Aggressively covering it next week slightly in the money at breakeven premium. Would still have the option to roll that up and out if she rallies next week.
#CoveredCalls – Sold FB NOV 10 2017 177.5 Call @ 2.50 (stock basis now 177.50 covered at 177.50)
NVDA
Taking this off prior to #Earnings after this big run…
Bought to Close NVDA NOV 10 2017 180.0 Put @ .75 (sold for 2.30)
MGM
#SyntheticStock #LongCallDiagonals – Setting up next week. Had to do this as a roll since it’s in an #IRA . Thought I would get filled at .01/.51 but got .04/.54 instead.
Bought to Close MGM NOV 3 2017 31.0 Calls @ .04
Sold MGM NOV 10 2017 31.5 Calls @ .54
STMP earnings
#Earnings – Original trade was NOV 3 2017 190.0/250.0 Strangle @ 5.50
Bought to Close STMP NOV 3 2017 250.0 Call @ .05
Still deciding on the put…she’s getting spanked for now.
MELI earnings
#Earnings – Original trade was NOV 17 2017 200.0/280.0 Strangle @ 3.70
On the massive spike up this morning:
Bought to Close MELI NOV 17 2017 200.0 Put @ .10
Pulling back now so watching the 280 call side….
AAPL
#SyntheticStock #LongCallDiagonals – AAPL only has 2.5 wide strikes right now so kinda limited on roll up. Best I can do is a small debit on front month roll.
Rolled AAPL NOV 3 2017 160.0 Calls to DEC 22 2017 162.5 Calls @ .95 debit
Synthetic stock working great and this debit reduces front month premium received to 2.65
AAPL
#Earnings -Not waiting on a pullback. Taking minimal loss now instead of max later.
Bought to Close Nov 3rd 162.5/167.5/172.5 iron fly @ 4.30 (sold for 4.05)
Crypto stuff
What to do with some of this quarter’s earnings profits? I’ve always been willing to gamble a little…(I’m still holding a half million Iraqi Dinar from Gulf War 2)…worth about a hundred bucks. LOL Already holding a little Ethereum (no Bitcoin…grrr)
Bought to Open Litecoin @ 55.15
https://www.coinbase.com/
From a newsletter I get from a volatility guy that also dabbles in crypto:
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Litecoin
Just shoveled some money into Litecoin at $50 (it is down from $80 earlier in the year). I put in double my original investment from 2013. I now have in Litecoin 10x the number of bitcoins I used to have. (I used to have 3x but now is up to 10x). Litecoin used to be $4 last year and was around $20-25 in 2013 when I first purchased. This investment here is a fraction of the money I made in bitcoin. I can see Litecoin hit $500-$1000 on the back of problems in Bitcoin quickly. It is already widely accepted by the same merchants, it is on Coinbase. It is the same exact technology, with a well-known founder and more democratic hashing algo. A payment interface can be ported from bitcoin to litecoin quickly. If at some point there are problems with bitcoin, the processing will switch over to litecoin. You can think of Litecoin as a better backup to bitcoin. In fact many think, litecoin is the better technology because mining is always bound to be more distributed than bitcoin. The biggest risk to bitcoin is a 50%+1 attack. 99% bitcoin in the world is held by a 1000 Chinese. Miners located in Chinese jurisdictions continue to have more than 50% of the mining capacity. The risk of 50%+1 attack in bitcoin becomes greater every day the more Xi Jinping consolidates power. If you end up with futures and options exchanges based on bitcoin, the Chinese will have a huge lever to pull in their relations with the US because they can trigger a financial crisis by pulling the rug under bitcoin. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if that is the long term game Jinping is playing.
SatoshiLite tweeted today: If Segwit2x miners manages to kill original chain with a 51% attack, Bitcoin will eventually lose the crypto throne. My bet is on Litecoin.
SatoshiLite is the biggest name in crypto after Satoshi. He is the creator of Litecoin and Director of Engineering of Coinbase. Real name is Charles Lee. In the pantheon of crypto greats, first you had Charlie Lee and then you had Vitalik Buterin. Litecoin is $50, it is following the same path of adoption that bitcoin has, it is barely $2 billion in market cap. I think the future of this crypto currency as an eventual backup to bitcoin operations is very bright. God forbid we have an actual problem with the bitcoin network, litecoin will spike like you have never seen anything else spike.
If litecoin goes down more, I will be shoveling more money into it.
If you have a crypto portfolio, my suggestion here would be to take 50% of your bitcoin which is at a pretty steep price here $7,000 and re-allocate the entire amount to Litecoin. Then as bitcoin goes higher and higher, sell and buy litecoin. If Bitcoin goes to 25K, you will triple your money. If Litecoin, goes to a meager $500 per coin, you will make 10x your money. This should be viewed as a long term investment with a horizon of 5 years. Within 5 years, I would not be surprised to see Litcoin see the same level of network and industry adoption as Bitcoin has today and as such it’s price can easily be 10x from current levels. The litecoin mining rules and limitation of supply are just as stringent as bitcoin’s. After Bitcoin futures and options succeed, you will have Ethereum futures and options and after that Litecoin. Bitcoin is the trailblazer, but the next big pot of money in crypto is in litecoin in my humble opinion. At some point the bitcoin players will look to diversity and litecoin will be option #2 after ethereum (and for many #1 due to the more constrained supply)
2020 LEAPS…when?
Looks like we get the rest of them in a couple weeks…
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https://www.optionseducation.org/tools/faq/leaps_cycles.html
When are the exchanges going to list 2020 LEAPS®?
2020 LEAPS will be rolled out over a three month period.
Cycle 1: Monday, September 11th, 2017: January 2020 LEAPS® listed
Cycle 2: Monday, October 16th, 2017: January 2020 LEAPS® listed
Cycle 3: Monday, November 13th, 2017: January 2020 LEAPS® listed
TradersExpo livestream
From Vegas tonight. Sosnoff and a lot of the tastytrade team will be there. Free!
https://www.moneyshow.com/events/conferences/tradersexpo/tradersexpo-las-vegas/live-stream/login/?scode=
AAPL earnings
#Earnings – enough risk in other places so going limited here.
Sold Nov 3rd 162.5/167.5/172.5 iron fly @ 4.05
Five wide with 6.80 expected move. Skewing slightly bearish.
SBUX
#Earnings today. Also looks like a prime entry for #SyntheticStock . No position here…
HRB
That’s gonna be a #FallingKnife you may not want to get under. I can’t wait to file taxes on a post card!
EWZ
#LongCallDiagonals #SyntheticStock -Been waiting for some sort of a pullback to get in this long term Whiz style (again). This is a half position that I’d like to add to when the 2020’s come out.
Bought to Open EWZ JAN 18 2019 40.0 Calls @ 5.02
Sold to Open EWZ JAN 18 2019 40.0 Puts @ 5.92
Taking the 90 cent credit from synthetic position applying it to the disaster put…
Bought to Open EWZ JAN 18 2019 35.0 Puts @ 3.87
This gives a net debit of only 2.97 for the Jan 2019 position. Add the 5 point max downside and get a max loss possibility of 7.97. Based on that, and the 63 weeks remaining in the trade I only need to average 12.5 cents per week in sales to cover the absolute worst case scenario.
So:
Sold EWZ NOV 10 2017 40.0 Calls @ .46
STMP earnings
#Earnings – Not much liquidity but taking a shot outside the expected move…this thing could go anywhere.
Sold STMP NOV 3 2017 190.0/250.0 Strangle @ 5.50
Stock at 218 with expected move of +/- 25.75
EWZ
Getting closer to a Whiz ( #SyntheticStock ) entry. Thinking about half now and half later. Wish the 2020’s would get here.
MELI earnings
#Earnings – Could be another wild one and I’m due for one to struggle. Can’t pass this up though…great premium even well outside the expected move (+/- 22.10 today and 27.0 by expiry). BTW these are monthlies…
Sold MELI NOV 17 2017 200.0/280.0 Strangle @ 3.70
rolled GLD
#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Tastytrade research suggests rolling at 15-20 days to go to maintain max daily theta which is the goal of these. If they’re out of the money I’ll hold ’em but in the money I’ll roll ’em.
Rolled GLD NOV 17 2017 125.0/118.0 Inverted Strangles to DEC 15 2017 125.0/118.0 @ .85 credit
TLT roll
#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Picking up another nice monthly “dividend”…
Rolled TLT NOV 17 2017 130.0 Puts to TLT DEC 15 2017 130.0 Puts @ .30 credit…
Current positions now all in December bringing in $44 per day of theta. I felt this was a pretty important thing to remember about these “forever” trades. Time decay is time decay…whether in the money or not, it’s the same. As long as the deltas are reasonable just keep on collecting. Easily bringing in 150% on margin annually.
December:
121.0 Calls and Puts
123.0 Calls
127.0 Puts
129.0 Calls
130.0 Puts
Slightly long deltas…
TSLA again
#ShortCalls -Cleaning up a straggler on this drop…
Bought to Close TSLA JAN 19 2018 500.0 Call @ .15 (sold for 2.15)
TSLA earnings
#Earnings – Got lucky…didn’t think 300 would hold so I’m outta here!
Bought to Close TSLA NOV 3 2017 290.0/350.0 Strangle @ .61 (sold for 4.65)
Worst case scenario? CHAPTER 11…what are the odds?
Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis
For stocks, Probability Of Bankruptcy is normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100 indicating the actual probability the firm will be distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/UAA–Probability-Of-Bankruptcy
Bottom feeders in my accounts:
AAOI: 3%
TEVA: 48%
UAA: 13%
TEVA
Not really #Earnings but sort of. Uncovering my stock just in case something crazy happens.
Bought to Close TEVA NOV 3 2017 15.5 Calls @ .19 (sold for .32)
TSLA
#Earnings – This could get exciting…selling 1.5x the expected move.
Sold TSLA NOV 3 2017 290.0/350.0 Strangle @ 4.65
FB
#Earnings – Going super bullish and/or getting a little stock at close to wherever it drops to if she tanks. I’m happy either way…
Sold FB NOV 3 2017 190.0/185.0 Bull Put Spread @ 3.50
TLT
#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Surprise fill prior to the Fed announcement. Loading up more theta…
Rolled TLT NOV 17 2017 127.0 Puts to DEC 15 2017 127.0 Puts @ .66 credit
#LongCallDiagonals help!
If anyone sees or notices any issues with these #LongCallDiagonals please throw it out there. Maybe we can fine tune for even more safety or profits. I got the idea from Whiz but applying it to my own underlyings. He’s been trading them for years but maybe we can improve on it.
Kinda like my cockpit briefing with the other guy (or gal 🙂 ) …if you see me doing something stupid ask me what the heck I’m doing…LOL I’ve got pretty thick skin!
GE
#LongCallDiagonals -Not in this yet…waiting for 2020’s but here’s what I’m looking at based on Jan 2019 numbers
1. Sell 23 puts and buy 23 calls (synthetic long stock)
2. Buy 20 puts for protection for disasters
All of that for a .75 credit so max loss of 2.25 so only need to sell 3.5 cents per week to cover max loss. Anything above that goes straight to profits.
DIS
#LongCallDiagonals – 115 weeks to go. 🙂
Bought to Close DIS NOV 3 2017 99.5 Calls @ .01 (sold for .36)
Sold DIS NOV 10 2017 99.0 Calls @ 1.36
SPX hedge
#RocketManHedge – Only need to collect 4.15 per week to carry this as a free hedge…this week’s looks safe so selling next week. So far it’s looking like carrying a short SPX position out to Jan expiry might actually turn a profit with market up or down (down would be better 🙂 )
Sold SPX NOV 10 2017 2560.0 Put @ 5.20
Selling against synthetic short in January…
TSLA
#Shortstrangles – Jan 500 call looking safe so re-loading.
Sold TSLA JUN 15 2018 170.0/510.0 Strangle @ 6.01
TLT
#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Missed one yesterday. Keeping the theta coming in on these. I’ll be rolling a lot more after FOMC today.
Rolled 6 TLT NOV 17 2017 121.0 Calls to TLT DEC 15 2017 121.0 Calls @ .35 credit
RGR
#Earnings today. Trading bottom of the range with 4.5% divvy down here…no position
EDIT…bad info. Divvy about 1.9 percent but decent premium
TAP
#Earnings tomorrow…
Let me throw this one out there for a possibility. This trade may have a name but I’m not sure…LOL Sell straddle and buy uneven wings with no upside risk and breakeven at the expected move to the downside.
Sell 80 strike straddle and buy 82 call and 75 put @ 2.00 credit. Makes money above 78 (the recent low). If the stock drops to 5 bucks I still get it at a basis of 8.
Reasonable?
WYNN MGM LAS
I guess the crisis is over. The general public has a short memory…that’s a good thing or most airlines would be out of business. I’m sure 90 percent of everyone has been pissed at an airline at some point!
Casinos on a tear today. Initial rumors of security screening and baggage checks at casino hotels probably won’t happen…
ISRG
#ShortStrangles – Earnings are done so going for a quick 30 day trade betting she rests for awhile. Selling near the 50 ma on the downside and well above all time high on upside. Also, trying to be out before the end of year debt ceiling battle.
Sold ISRG DEC 8 2017 360.0/420.0 Strangle @ 4.30
MU
#Squeeze – Pretty impressive daily and weekly squeezes. Completely missed it!
AAOI
#ShortStrangles – Was away from my desk for the open and got stopped out on the tiny bounce. A reason why I’m not a fan of stops but sometimes have to use them. These were double sold so had ’em set to close at about 50 percent of max.
Bought to Close AAOI NOV 3 2017 44.0 Calls @ .59 (sold for 1.00)
SHOP
#Earnings – Bounced at the 95 level so not even messing with it. Book ’em!
Bought to Close SHOP NOV 3 2017 95.0/130.0 Strangles @ .65 (sold for 1.91)
Thanks @Jeff !
Account accounting…?
Just wondering how you guys track your trades. TOS (or any platform for that matter) just isn’t very good about tracking basis in positions after rolls. I don’t treat every little trade as a stand alone trade. Sometimes it’s many rolls and adjustments but always related back to the original position until the whole enchilada is closed.
Here’s how I do it but I’m always looking for something easier. Mine can be a little time consuming if I’m very active but that’s pretty rare (and I enjoy this part anyway). It’s basically doing the calculations long hand and typing into a text file…(always backed up on two computers). This layout has evolved over the years for various types of positions but here’s the basic strangle sale with an adjustment (actual numbers if that’s ok).
Original trade:
Sold EWZ DEC 15 2017 40.0/45.0 Strangles @ 1.55
Entered in my text file:
EWZ + 559.90 (5 Dec 40 Puts @ 1.12) Dec 15 monthly
EWZ + 204.90 (5 Dec 45 Calls @ .43) Dec 15 monthly
Adjustment:
Rolled EWZ DEC 15 2017 45.0 Calls to DEC 15 2017 42.5 Calls @ .53 credit
Modified entry in my text file reflecting premium received for call roll and new strike:
EWZ + 559.90 (5 Dec 40 Puts @ 1.12) Dec 15 monthly
EWZ + 459.70 (5 Dec 42.50 Calls @ .96) Dec 15 monthly
This keeps a running total of exactly where the trade stands at any time. Dollars rounded to nearest nickel after commissions and premium received actual amount to the penny.
Am I too anal? LOL open to ideas. It’s a shame a platform can’t track these any better!
EWZ
#ShortStrangles – Rolled EWZ DEC 15 2017 45.0 Calls to DEC 15 2017 42.5 Calls @ .53 credit
Position now 40/42.5 Strangles @ 2.08
H & S ??
Not a big chart guy….is this a head and shoulders top? Breaking support at the shoulder line?
AVGO
#ShortStrangles – Nice pop out of the daily squeeze. Looking at Dec 240/300 @ 5.50…
Whaddya think?
NVDA
#Earnings – They don’t report until next week and I had already sold a partial put position at the 180 strike but never got a chance to add. To get the rest of the position on I’m going with a super bullish position but protection if she implodes.
Sold NVDA NOV 10 2017 210.0/200.0 Bull Put Spread @ 5.25
Scenarios:
1. NVDA rallies then yay!
2. NVDA drifts on up into the announcement might book it early.
3. NVDA implodes I book the long put and take stock at a decent basis to sell covered calls.
FFIV
#ShortStrangles – Had so much fun with this over earnings gonna try to squeeze a little more out of it.
Sold FFIV NOV 17 2017 115.0/127.0 Strangles @ 1.45
REGN
#CoveredCalls – Booking this one since the next one was already sold…
Bought to Close REGN NOV 3 2017 437.5 Call @ .30 (sold for 4.50)
AMZN
#Earnings – Closed iron flies to avoid exercise fees and taking .78 loss…
Bought to Close AMZN OCT 27 2017 990.0/1000.0/1010.0 Iron Flies @ 10.03 (sold for 9.25)
Options Bistro 